ARIMA乘积季节模型在上海市甲肝发病预测中的应用

 目的 应用自回归求和移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)乘积季节模型分析季节性时间序列,建立上海市病毒性甲型肝炎发病率的预测模型。方法 利用上海市1990年至2011年甲肝按月发病数的历史疫情数据,采用非条件最小二乘法估计模型参数,模型阶数确定后,建立甲肝按月发病数ARIMA乘积季节预测模型。结果 非季节和季节移动平均的参数分别是0.6341和0.9999,季节自回归的参数是0.4059,t检验的P值均<0.0001,方差估计值是0.1593,AIC=282.1478,SBC=292.7242,对建立的模型进行残差的白噪声检验,χ2检验统计量的P值均>0.05,据此建立ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12NOINT乘积季节模型,模型表达式(1-0.405 9B12) (1-B) (1-B12)Yt=(1-0.634 1B) (1-0.999 9B12)εt,并开展上海市甲肝发病数的预测。结论 ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12NOINT乘积季节模型可用于预测上海市病毒性甲型肝炎发病的季节模型。     

自回归求和移动平均模型在湖南省食物中毒预测中的应用

目的：探索自回归求和移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA) 在湖南省食物中毒预测中的应用,为食物中毒的预防和控制提供依据。方法：收集2003 年1 月至2009 年12 月湖南省食物中毒人数进行ARIMA 模型拟合,用2010 年的中毒资料验证模型的预测效果,并预测2011 年湖南省食物中毒人数。 结果：ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ 较好地拟合了既往时间段中毒人数的时间序列,拟合预测误差为9.59%,2011 年湖南省食物中毒预测人数为834 人。 结论：ARIMA 预测模型能较好地拟合短期内食物中毒人数在时间序列上的变化趋势,若用于长期预测,应根据长期监测数据不断调整模型参数。     

应用ARIMA模型预测广西孕产妇死亡率的可行性研究

 目的 探讨应用ARIMA时间序列模型预测广西孕产妇死亡率的可行性，为广西继续降低孕产妇死亡率提供理论依据。方法 基于2002-2006年广西的逐月孕产妇死亡率，采用非条件最小二乘法估计模型参数，按照残差不相关原则与简洁原则确定模型结构，依据AIC与SBC准则确定模型的拟合优度，建立预测广西孕产妇死亡率的最优ARIMA模型。用所得模型预测广西2007年的孕产妇死亡率，比较预测值与实际值的差异；再以2002-2007年的数据构建模型预测广西2008年的孕产妇死亡率。结果 模型ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1)12较好拟合了既往时间段孕产妇死亡率的时间序列，模型自回归参数(AR1=-0.708，AR2=-0.537)与季节滑动平均参数(SMA1=0.511)均有统计学意义(P<0.05)，AIC=33.814，SBC=39.364，模型残差为白噪声(P>0.05)，模型数学函数式为 (1+0.708B)(1+0.537B2)(1-B) (1-B12) Zt=(1-0.511 B12) t 。2007年逐月孕产妇死亡率的预测值符合实际值的变动趋势，2007年孕产妇死亡率与实际值的相对误差率仅为2.08%。预测2008年广西的孕产妇死亡率为21.232/10万。结论 ARIMA模型可以较好地拟合孕产妇死亡率的时间变化趋势，并用于预测未来的孕产妇死亡率，是一种短期预测精度较高的预测模型。     

ARIMA模型在预测重庆市医院日住院量中的应用

目的建立预测与监测的求和自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)的时间序列模型,研究日住院量的变化规律。方法通过对2009年2～4月重庆市逐日住院患者量分析用Box-Ljung统计量评价ARIMA模型的拟合度,用平均预测相对误差作为预测效果的评价指标。结果重庆市住院患者量以周为时间周期,每周中以周一、二住院量达到高峰,周六、日为低谷。ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)7是重庆市2009年2～4月住院量预测最优拟合预测模型,一周和两周外推预测的平均相对误差分别为6.27%和9.14%。结论对住院患者量的历史数据进行时间序列分析是用于住院患者量监测的一个重要的内容。本研究所建立的ARIMA模型适用于重庆市住院患者量预测,预测精度较高。     

时间序列ARIMA模型在艾滋病疫情预测中的应用

目的探讨应用时间序列求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测艾滋病发病率的可行性。方法利用重庆市疾病控制部门提供的1993～2009年艾滋病发病情况数据建立ARIMA预测模型。结果 ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,0)12很好地拟合了艾滋病发病率,2009年7～12月的预测值符合实际发病率变动趋势。结论 ARIMA模型很好地模拟艾滋病发病率在时间序列上的变动趋势,可以为疫情防控提供借鉴。     

ARIMA模型在交通事故预测中的应用

目的:推广ARIMA模型在时间序列预测方面的应用.方法:利用包头市1990-2001年重特大交通事故的月发生数,通过统计软件SPSS实现ARIMA模型(博克斯-詹金斯法)并预测.结果:呈现出随机性和周期性的数据,通过平稳化、估计、检验判定模型为ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12,残差为自噪声,检验区域的预测数和实际数吻合程度尚好.结论:ARIMA模型可用于交通事故中时间序列的指标预测.     

预测医院门诊量的ARIMA模型构建及应用

目的 研究综合性医院月门诊量变化规律,预测其变化趋势,为医院管理决策提供依据.方法 结合序列平稳性、长期趋势和季节效应,采用对数和差分变换,应用残差分析和最小二乘法估计,建立预测模型ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12.结果 拟合残差平方和为2.790,AIC=178.126,SBC=-170.080,预测2008年门诊量相对误差为6.11%,小于指数平滑法(8.78%).用该模型预测2009年门诊量为150.12万人次.结论 医院门诊量存在季节变动和长期增长趋势,适合用ARIMA乘积模型进行拟合,但不同医院门诊量变化规律未必一致,要认真分析原序列的ACF图和PACF图,然后确定p,d、q参数.     

应用时间序列模型预测医院感染率

目的利用时间序列模型预测医院感染率,了解医院感染发生的潜在规律,提出有针对性的监控措施。方法收集本院2009至2017年医院感染数据,应用SPSSl3.0软件分析数据建立时间序列预测模型。结果医院感染率逐渐降低,且每年的春季和冬季都比较高;ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)(0,1,1)(0,1,1)4模型AIC为54.16,BIC为58.36;2018年四个季度医院感染率预测值分别为1.57%、1.14%、0.95%、1.16%。结论医院感染具有季节性,应注意加强春、冬季宣教预防医院感染发生;医院感染率预测值与实际值拟合度较好,能够为医院感染管理决策提供科学依据。     

基于ARIMA乘积季节模型的科室级常规耗材需求量预测研究

目的探讨季节性因素的时间序列分析方法在科室常规耗材库管理中的应用,分析和预测未来一段时间内医用常规耗材的使用需求。方法采用整合移动平均自回归(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA)乘积季节模型对北京市某医院某科室某品牌注射器2014年1月至2018年12月的逐月使用量进行预测。结果ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12模型的平均绝对百分比误差为5.308,在实际业务可接受范围之内,因此模型拟合效果较好,预测结果接近实际产生值。结论ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12模型能够准确的进行该类医用常规耗材的短期预测,可应用于医院物资管理信息系统中,实现对医院耗材的合理管控,并为科室制定医用耗材的资金支出预算提供可靠依据。     

基于ARIMA模型的医院门诊量预测

目的分析医院门诊量的变化规律,预测其未来1年-2年的门诊量。方法应用SPSS13.0软件对1999年-2009年门诊量进行ARIMA模型的建模拟合,用所得到的模型预测2010年、2011年月门诊量。结果 ARIMA（0,1,1）（1,1,0）模型很好的拟合了以往的门诊量序列,参数具有统计学意义。结论 ARIMA模型能很好的拟合门诊量变化趋势,为医院管理提供依据。     

APPLICATION OF LORNOXICAM TO PATIENT-CONTROLLED ANALGESIA IN PATIENTS UNDERGOING ABDOMINAL SURGERIES

FOR anesthesiologis s ,treatingpostoperativepainhas alwaysbeen a problem.Althoughopioidshave been provedtobe effective,theirsideeffectscouldnotbeignored.With thedevelopmentofscienceand pharmacology,many drugs with aspectsof satisfactoryanalgesicefficacyand couldbe welltoleratedby patientshave been developed.And lornoxicamisone of them, which isa non-steroidalanti-inflammatorydrug (NSAID ), with analgesic, anti-infl-ammatory,andantipyreticproperties.Itseliminationhalf-time(3 to 5 hours) isle…     

Acupuncture Treatment of Vomiting

CASE HISTORY A female patient, 46 years old, head of the foreign affairs department of a certain university in Beijing, paid her first visit on October 9, 2006, with the chief complaint of vomiting for one month. She got vomiting after meals in early September. Before that, she had discomfortable sensation in the stomach due to angry with others, but she didn't pay much attention. Later, it developed into vomiting after eating. After the vomiting, the discomfort would be relieved, but with slight hypodynamia. She was once diagnosed as having 'neurogenic vomiting'. Having taken some western and Chinese drugs, the above symptoms were a little bit improved, but she would have nausea upon eating and with regurgitation. Because of the fear for vomiting, she did not dare to have food intake, with body weight reduction of 6 kilos in one month.     

Qiu Baoguo''''s Experience in Treating Consumptive Syndromes after Radio-Chemotherapies

Radiotherapy and chemotherapy are the important modern medical therapies for malignant tumors,yet they can also bring about serious local and systemic toxic side reactions so to decrease the patient;'s life quality,manifested by a series of consumptive symptoms.Having engaged in the combined work of Chinese and western medicine for nearly 50 years,the research fellow Qiu Baoguo in Henan Provincial Academy of TCM has developed his unique views on the TCM study of consumptive syndromes.The author of this essay had once the fortune tO follow Dr.Qiu in clinic,and specially would like to introduce in the following Dr.Qiu's experience in treating consumptive syndromes after radio-chemotherapies for patients with malignant tumor.     

Insomnia Due to Deficiency of Both the Heart and Spleen Treated by Acupuncture-Moxibustion and Chinese Tuina

OBJECTIVE: To observe therapeutic effects of the comprehensive therapy of acupuncture-moxibustion and Chinese Tuina for treatment of insomnia due to deficiency of both the heart and spleen. METHODS: 92 cases were divided randomly into the treatment group (treated by acupuncture-moxibustion and Chinese Tuina) and the control group (treated by acupuncture-moxibustion). RESULTS: The therapeutic effect of the treatment group was obviously superior to that of the control group (the CHI2 test showed P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The comprehensive therapy of acupuncture-moxibustion and Chinese Tuina can give marked therapeutic effects for treatment of insomnia due to deficiency of both the heart and spleen.     

Analysis of CK-19,PDX-1,Nestin,Ngn3 in different donor islet purity in rats

Objective: To investigate if there are the CK-19, PDX-1, Nestin, Ngn3 positive cells in the donor islets of different purity in rats. Methods: Thirty male adult SD rats were randomly divided into 3 groups. Islets were isolated using digestion by ductal injection of collagenase. Group Ⅰ (n=10): Separating cell preparations were not purified, Group Ⅱ(n=10): Islet sediment was purified with 25% Ficoll400 ,Group Ⅲ (n=10): Islet sediment was purified with 25% and 11% Ficoll-400. The levels of protein of CK-19, PDX-1, Nestin and Ngn3 were detected by immunohistochemistry and the mRNA of CK-19, PDX-1, Nestin, Ngn3 was amplified by RT-PCR. Results: After two different purification methods applied, three islet preparations of different purities were obtained. The difference of islet purity was significant among various groups (P＜0.05). Compared with group Ⅱ and group Ⅲ,the protein and mRNA of CK-19, PDX-1, Nestin,Ngn3 were both higher in group Ⅰ; group Ⅲ was poorly expressed. Conclusions: The three different islet purity donor islet have different CK-19, PDX-1, Nestin, Ngn3 positive cells within them, indicating that there are some islet stem cells in the purified donor islet.     

Dr.Zhang Ren''''s Experience in the Acupuncture Treatment of Different Diseases with the Same Therapeutic Principle

Dr.Zhang Ren,the chief physician,is the chairman of Shanghai Acupuncture and Moxibustion Association.Having been engaged in medicine for about 40 years,he is experienced in treating various intractable diseases.In his long years of clinical practice,he advocates taking the TCM differentiation as the basis to seek for the acupuncture method for treatment of modern intractable diseases.The author of this essay had the fortune to follow Dr.Zhang in study.The following is a summary of Dr.Zhang's experience in the acupuncture treatment for different intractable diseases with the same therapeutic principle.     

Luo Lingjie''''s Experience in Treating Chronic Nephropathy

In treating chronic nephropathy,Luo Lingjie,a chief physician,pays attention to regulating the balance between yin and yang,treating infection if present,and removing pathogenic factors.He prescribes gentle drugs and uses carefully strongly warming-tonifying ones,emphasizes the importance of persuading the patient to persist in treatment with medication and nurse one's health for recuperation,and is good at combined use of TCM and western medicine therapy and brings the merits of various therapies into full play,with obvious theraoeutic effects.     

Acupuncture Combined with Spinal Tui Na for Treatment of Primary Dysmenorrhea in 30 Cases

Objective: To observe the therapeutic effects in acupunture treatment of primary dysmenorrhea combined with spinal Tui Na, and study its mechanism. Methods: Thirty cases of the treatment group were treated by acupuncture combined with spinal Tui Na, and thirty cases in the control group were treated by routine acupuncture. Results: The total effective rate was 93.3% in the treatment group, and 73.3% in the control group, with a significant difference between the two groups (P<0.05). Conclusions: Acupuncture combined with spinal Tui Na has good prospects for treatment of primary dysmenorrhea.