Cancer prevalence estimates in Europe at the beginning of 2000

BackgroundComplete cancer prevalence data in Europe have never been updated after the first estimates provided by the EUROPREVAL project and referred to the year 1993. This paper provides prevalence estimates for 16 major cancers in Europe at the beginning of the year 2003.Patients and methodsWe estimated complete prevalence by the completeness index method. We used information on cancer patients diagnosed in 1978–2002 with vital status information available up to 31 December 2003, from 76 European cancer registries.ResultsAbout 11.6 millions of Europeans with a history of one of the major considered cancers were alive on 1 January 2003. For breast and prostate cancers, about 1 out of 73 women and 1 out of 160 men were living with a previous diagnosis of breast and prostate cancers, respectively. The demographic variations alone will increase the number of prevalent cases to nearly 13 millions in 2010.ConclusionsSeveral factors (early detection, population aging and better treatment) contribute to increase cancer prevalence and push for the need of a continuous monitoring of prevalence indicators to properly plan needs, resource allocation to cancer and for improving health care programs for cancer survivors. Cancer prevalence should be included within the EU official health statistics.     

Tobacco‐attributable burden of cancer according to socioeconomic position in France

Smoking is a major preventable cause of cancers and is increasingly concentrated among the most deprived individuals leading to increasing socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence of cancers linked to smoking. We aimed to estimate the tobacco‐attributable cancer burden according to socioeconomic position in France. The analysis was restricted to cancer sites for which tobacco smoking was recognized as a risk factor. Cancer cases by sex, age group and European Deprivation Index (EDI) among people aged 30–74 between 2006 and 2009 were obtained from cancer registries covering ～20% of the French population. The tobacco‐attributable burden of cancer according to EDI was estimated applying the population attributable fraction (PAF) computed with the Peto‐Lopez method. The PAF increased from 56% in the least deprived EDI quintile to 70% in the most deprived EDI quintile among men and from 26% to 38% among women. In total, 28% of the excess cancer cases in the four most deprived EDI quintiles in men and 43% in women could be prevented if smoking in these 4 EDI quintiles was similar to that of the least deprived EDI quintile. A substantial smoking‐attributable burden of cancer by socioeconomic position was observed in France. The results highlight the need for policies reducing tobacco consumption. More comprehensive interventions integrating the various dimensions of health determinants and proportionate according to socioeconomic position may essentially contribute to the reduction of socioeconomic inequalities in cancer.     

The risk of cancer attributable to diagnostic medical radiation: Estimation for France in 2015

Although medical ionizing radiation (IR) has clear clinical benefits, it is an established carcinogen. Our study estimates the number of new cancer cases in France in 2015 attributable to IR exposure from medical procedures. Exposures from external (X-rays, CT scans, interventional radiology) and internal (nuclear medicine) sources were considered. We used 2007 national frequencies of diagnostic examinations by sex and age to estimate the lifetime organ dose exposure adjusted for changes in the use of such procedures over time. The Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII risk models were used to estimate the corresponding excess cancer risk, assuming an average latency period of 10 years. Additionally, we used cancer incidence data from the French Cancer Registries Network. Of the 346,000 estimated new cancer cases in adults in France in 2015, 2300 cases (940 among men and 1360 among women) were attributable to diagnostic IR, representing 0.7% of all new cancer cases (0.5% for men and 0.9% for women). The leading cancers attributable to medical IR were female breast (n = 560 cases), lung (n = 500 cases) and colon (n = 290 cases) cancers. Compared to other risk factors, the contribution of medical IR to the cancer burden is small, and the benefits largely outweigh its harms. However, some of these IR-associated cancer cases may be preventable through dose optimization of and enhanced justification for diagnostic examinations.     

Cancer prevalence in Central Europe: the EUROPREVAL Study.

BACKGROUND: Information on cancer prevalence is either absent or largely unavailable for central European countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Austria, Germany, The Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland cover a population of 13 million inhabitants. Cancer registries in these countries supplied incidence and survival data for 465 000 cases of cancer. The prevalence of stomach, colon, rectum, lung, breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and prostate cancer, as well as skin melanoma, Hodgkin's disease, leukaemia and all malignant neoplasms combined was estimated for the end of 1992. RESULTS: A large heterogeneity was observed within central European countries. For all cancers combined, estimates ranged from 730 per 100 000 in Poland (men) to 3350 per 100 000 in Germany (women). Overall cancer prevalence was the highest in Germany and Switzerland, and the lowest in Poland and Slovenia. In Slovakia, prevalence was higher than average for men and lower than average for women. This was observed for almost all ages. As shown by incidence data, breast cancer was the most frequent malignancy among women in all countries. Among men, prostate cancer was the leading malignancy in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, and lung cancer was the major cancer in Slovenia, Slovakia and Poland. The Netherlands had a high prevalence of both prostate and lung cancer. Time-related magnitude of prevalence within each country and the variability of such proportions across the countries has been estimated and cancer prevalence is given by time since diagnosis (1 year, 1-5 years, 5-10 years, >10 years) for each site. The weight of 1-year prevalence (248 per 100 000 among men and 253 per 100 000 among women) was <15% of total prevalence. Prevalent cases between 1 and 5 years since diagnosis represented between 22% and 34% of the total prevalence. Prevalent cases diagnosed from 5 to 10 years before (335 per 100 000 for men and 505 per 100 000 for women) represented between 17% and 23% of prevalent cancers. Finally, long-term cancer prevalence (diagnosed >10 years before), reflecting long-term survival, and number of people considered as cured from cancer were 490 per 100 000 for men and 1028 per 100 000 for women, with a range between 26% (The Netherlands, men) and 50% (Slovakia, women). CONCLUSION: It is clear from observing countries in Central Europe, that high cancer prevalence is associated with well-developed economies. This burden of cancer could be interpreted as a paradoxical effect of better treatments and thereby survival. It could also be taken as a sign for not being satisfied with the advances in treating patients diagnosed with cancer, and for supporting more primary prevention.     

Changes in cancer incidence attributable to tobacco smoking in Germany, 1999–2008

Tobacco smoking, a major cancer risk factor, is very common in Germany as in many other high‐income countries. Few studies have assessed the burden of tobacco‐associated cancer incidence in the German population. We calculated the proportion of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking to estimate the burden of tobacco‐associated cancer in 1999 and 2008. Smoking prevalence was determined from national surveys of a representative sample of the German population in 1998 and 2008–2011, and data on relative risks were obtained from meta‐analyses. Cancer incidence for the years 1999 and 2008 was estimated by the German Centre for Cancer Registry Data at the Robert Koch Institute. We estimate that 72,208 incident cancer cases were attributable to tobacco smoking in Germany in 2008, an increase of >6,200 cases over 1999 levels. Among the cases in 2008 were 55,057 cases among men (22.8% (95% CI, 21.3–24.1) of all new cases) and 17,151 cases among women (7.9% (95% CI, 7.21–8.68) of all new cases). The highest proportions attributable to smoking were estimated for cancer of the lung, larynx, pharynx and the lower urinary tract. Tobacco smoking is currently responsible for more than one in five cancer cases among men and nearly 1 in 12 among women. Considering the increasing trends in cancer incidence and, until very recently, rising prevalence of smoking among women, it can be expected that the number of tobacco‐attributable cancer cases will rise further.     

National cancer prevalence estimation in France

In France, as in several other European countries, prevalence has to be estimated from the modelling of 2 of the 3 basic epidemiological measures of incidence, mortality, and survival. Since, in these countries, follow-up of cancer patients is only made in a few registries, we explored the feasibility of estimating prevalence in the absence of follow-up data. The method, which used only incidence and mortality, was validated on Danish data and applied to France. For this latter country, the estimation procedure is based on the recorded mortality data and an estimate of incidence for the entire country. It is applied to selected sites of cancer, which account for 80% of the estimated incidence. In 1992, the prevalence of patients who had such a diagnosis amounts to 538,000 women and 424, 000 men. The most frequent cancer sites are head and neck, breast, and large bowel. Most of the cancer sites present an increase in prevalence proportion between 1987 and 1992. The larger increases concern breast and prostate cancer.     

The frequency of cancer in France in year 2002, and trends since 1968

The estimated number of cancers diagnosed in 2002 is 150,000 in the male population and 120,000 in the female population and there were close to 88,000 cancer deaths among men and 59,000 cancer deaths among women in France. The most frequent cancer sites in the male population are prostate, lung, colon, intestine and head & neck (mouth, pharynx, larynx). In the female population, breast cancer is by far the most frequent cancer, followed by colorectal cancer. Between 1968 and 2002, cancer mortality decreased by 5% for men and by 19% for women. Cancer mortality reached a maximum in 1987 in the male population and in the last 15 years the decrease is larger among men than among women.     

Cancer deaths and cases attributable to lifestyle factors and infections in China, 2013

BackgroundThe burden of cancer in China is high, and it is expected to further increase. Information on cancers attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is essential in planning preventive measures against cancer. We estimated the number and proportion of cancer deaths and cases attributable to ever-smoking, second-hand smoking, alcohol drinking, low fruit/vegetable intake, excess body weight, physical inactivity, and infections in China, using contemporary data from nationally representative surveys and cancer registries.MethodsThe number of cancer deaths and cases in 2013 were obtained from the National Central Cancer Registry of China and data on most exposures were obtained from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey 2002 or 2006 and Global Adult Tobacco Smoking 2010. We used a bootstrap simulation method to calculate the number and proportion of cancer deaths and cases attributable to risk factors and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), allowing for uncertainty in data.ResultsApproximately 718 000 (95% CI 702 100–732 200) cancer deaths in men and 283 100 (278 800–288 800) cancer deaths in women were attributable to the studied risk factors, accounting for 52% of all cancer deaths in men and 35% in women. The numbers for incident cancer cases were 952 500 (95% CI 934 200–971 400) in men and 442 700 (437 200–447 900) in women, accounting for 47% of all incident cases in men and 28% in women. The greatest proportions of cancer deaths attributable to risk factors were for smoking (26%), HBV infection (12%), and low fruit/vegetable intake (7%) in men and HBV infection (7%), low fruit/vegetable intake (6%), and second-hand smoking (5%) in women.ConclusionsEffective public health interventions to eliminate or reduce exposure from these risk factors, notably tobacco control and vaccinations against carcinogenic infections, can have considerable impact on reducing the cancer burden in China.     

Trends in incidence of digestive cancers in France.

The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the incidence of digestive cancers in France. Observed incidence and mortality data in the population covered by cancer registries were modelled using age-cohort models. An estimation of the incidence/mortality ratio was obtained from these models and was applied to the mortality rates predicted from an age-cohort model for the entire French population. Site-specific standardized-incidence rates by 1-year intervals and cumulative rate 0-74 years by birth cohort were estimated. On average, age-standardized incidence rates of large bowel cancers increased by 1.0% per year in men and 0.8% in women from 1980 to 2000. The estimated cumulative rate increased from 4.0% for men born in 1913 to 4.8% for those born in 1953. The corresponding values in women were 2.5 and 2.9%. The most striking increase in incidence was seen for primary liver cancer with an increase from 2000 incident cases in 1980 to nearly 6000 in 2000. The estimated cumulative rate was 0.5% for men born in 1913 and 2.9% for those born in 1953. The increase in incidence was lower for pancreas cancer. A decrease in the incidence of stomach cancer was observed for both sexes and of oesophageal cancer in men by slightly more than 2%. The study showed large changes in the cancer burden in France between 1980 and 2000.     

Breast cancer incidence and mortality in women in China: temporal trends and projections to 2030

Objective:Breast cancer was the most common cancer and the fifth cause of cancer deaths among women in China in 2015. The evaluation of the long-term incidence and mortality trends and the prediction of the future burden of breast cancer could provide valuable information for developing prevention and control strategies.Methods:The burden of breast cancer in China in 2015 was estimated by using qualified data from 368 cancer registries from the National Central Cancer Registry. Incident cases and deaths in 22 cancer registries were used to assess the time trends from 2000 to 2015. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the burden of breast cancer to 2030.Results:Approximately 303,600 new cases of breast cancer (205,100 from urban areas and 98,500 from rural areas) and 70,400 breast cancer deaths (45,100 from urban areas and 24,500 from rural areas) occurred in China in 2015. Urban regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates. The most common histological subtype of breast cancer was invasive ductal carcinoma, followed by invasive lobular carcinoma. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates increased by 3.3% and 1.0% per year during 2000–2015, and were projected to increase by more than 11% until 2030. Changes in risk and demographic factors between 2015 and 2030 in cases are predicted to increase by approximately 13.3% and 22.9%, whereas deaths are predicted to increase by 13.1% and 40.9%, respectively.Conclusions:The incidence and mortality of breast cancer continue to increase in China. There are no signs that this trend will stop by 2030, particularly in rural areas. Effective breast cancer prevention strategies are therefore urgently needed in China.     

Prevalence of patients with colorectal cancer requiring follow-up or active treatment

IntroductionThe objective of this study was to estimate prevalence of colorectal cancers requiring care or follow-up.Materials and methodsPrevalence was observed in 2005 on the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). Total and 5-year partial prevalences were calculated. The prevalence of patients requiring follow-up was estimated using non-mixture cure models. The prevalence of patients with recurrence was estimated using annual recurrence rates.ResultsTotal prevalence was 262,244 cases in France. The mean variation in 5-year partial prevalence between successive 5-year periods was +8.0%. Time to cure was estimated to be 9.3 years, suggesting that follow-up is needed over a 10-year period, corresponding to 71.7% of prevalent cases. In 2005, 5.4% of prevalent cases had recurrent cancer requiring treatment.ConclusionThis study underlines the burden of colorectal cancer on the health system. Prevalence of patients requiring follow-up or treatment provides interesting information in addition to classic indicators.     

Socioeconomic environment and disparities in cancer survival for 19 solid tumor sites: An analysis of the French Network of Cancer Registries (FRANCIM) data

Social inequalities are concerning along the cancer continuum. In France, social gradient in health is particularly marked but little is known about social gradient in cancer survival. We aimed to investigate the influence of socioeconomic environment on cancer survival, for all cancers reported in the French Network of Cancer Registries. We analyzed 189,657 solid tumors diagnosed between 2006 and 2009, recorded in 18 registries. The European Deprivation Index (EDI), an ecological index measuring relative poverty in small geographic areas, assessed social environment. The EDI was categorized into quintiles of the national distribution. One- and five-year age-standardized net survival (ASNS) were estimated for each solid tumor site and deprivation quintile, among men and among women. We found that 5-year ASNS was lower among patients living in the most deprived areas compared to those living in the least deprived ones for 14/16 cancers among men and 16/18 cancers among women. The extent of cancer survival disparities according to deprivation varied substantially across the cancer sites. The reduction in ASNS between the least and the most deprived quintile reached 34% for liver cancer among men and 59% for bile duct cancer among women. For pancreas, stomach and esophagus cancer (among men), and ovary and stomach cancer (among women), deprivation gaps were larger at 1-year than 5-year survival. In conclusion, survival was worse in the most deprived areas for almost all cancers. Our results from population-based cancer registries data highlight the need for implementing actions to reduce social inequalities in cancer survival in France.     

Substantial under-estimation in cancer incidence estimates for developing countries due to under-ascertainment in elderly cancer cases

Under-ascertainment of elderly cases in cancer registry data is a well-known problem. This article provides the cancer incidence in developing countries corrected for the under-ascertainment in elderly cancer cases (aged 65+). The original incidence rate by GLOBOCAN 2002 was 11% (men 15%; women 7%) under-estimated, so there were 6,462,000 new cancer cases (3,093,000 men; 2,737,000 women) in 2002 topping the original estimate by 632,000. This paper is the first attempt to quantify the under-ascertainment bias in the cancer burden of developing countries and opens the discussion on how cancer incidence could be corrected in this increasing part of the population.     

Incidence and mortality trends for prostate cancer in 5 French areas from 1982 to 1996.

After an increase in the 1980s, incidence and mortality for prostate cancer in North America or England and Wales started to decrease in the early 1990s. The reasons for this evolution are widely debated, notably the importance of early detection. This study describes trends of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in 5 areas in France, where practices of early detection for this cancer are widely used. The 5 French administrative areas, covered by a population-based registry, have a total population of approximately 1,700,000 men. Incidence data from these registries were studied for the period 1982-1995, and mortality data were provided by the Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) for the period 1982-1996. Age-Period-Cohort models by Poisson regression were created to characterize these trends. Between 1982 and 1995, 14,699 cases of prostate cancer were registered by the 5 registries under consideration. After a little intensification of the increase in 1987, undoubtedly due to early detection (notably using Prostate-Specific Antigen), the trend of the incidence seems to reverse from 1993. Mortality increased monotonically from 1982-1990 by an average of 1.8% per year, before decreasing annually by an average of 3.3% until 1996. Poisson regressions indicated a period effect on both incidence and mortality data; a small, but significant, cohort effect exists for incidence evolution, showing that elements such as etiologic factors may have an influence. Until results of randomized studies on mass screening are available, the question of individual screening remains; improved knowledge of risk factors could be interesting.     

Attributable causes of cancer in Japan in 2005--systematic assessment to estimate current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan

BackgroundTo contribute to evidence-based policy decision making for national cancer control, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan in 2005.MethodsWe first estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of each cancer attributable to known risk factors from relative risks derived primarily from Japanese pooled analyses and large-scale cohort studies and the prevalence of exposure in the period around 1990. Using nationwide vital statistics records and incidence estimates, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2005.ResultsIn 2005, ∼55% of cancer among men was attributable to preventable risk factors in Japan. The corresponding figure was lower among women, but preventable risk factors still accounted for nearly 30% of cancer. In men, tobacco smoking had the highest PAF (30% for incidence and 35% for mortality, respectively) followed by infectious agents (23% and 23%). In women, in contrast, infectious agents had the highest PAF (18% and 19% for incidence and mortality, respectively) followed by tobacco smoking (6% and 8%).ConclusionsIn Japan, tobacco smoking and infections are major causes of cancer. Further control of these factors will contribute to substantial reductions in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.     

Regional estimates of colorectal cancer burden in Italy

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: In terms of new diagnoses, colorectal cancer is one of the most important cancers in Italy and worldwide.The aim of this paper is to present estimates of the mortality, incidence and prevalence of colorectal cancer in Italy at a national and regional scale over the period 1970-1999, with projections up to 2010. METHODS: The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence estimates from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modelled to obtain regional and national estimates of colorectal cancer survival. RESULTS: Different incidence patterns were observed for men and women, especially in the projection period: the national age-standardized rate is estimated to increase throughout the study period 1970-2010 for men from 30 to 70 per 100,000, and to stabilize from the end of the 1990s for women at around 38 per 100,000. A stabilization or a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence rates is expected in most regions for women and in most northern-central regions for men. The most critical situation is estimated among men for southern regions, where the rise in incidence is accompanied by a dramatic increase in mortality. About 46,000 incident cases, 267,000 prevalent cases, and 16,000 deaths from colorectal cancer are estimated in Italy for the year 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the risk reduction estimated in most northern-central regions among men and in the large majority of regions among women, the colorectal cancer burden in Italy is expected to remain relevant in the next years. Prospects for reducing this burden appear mainly connected to the adoption of prevention policies aimed at increasing the awareness of the risk related to dietary habits and lifestyles and at promoting colorectal cancer screening.     

Descriptive study of gallbladder,extrahepatic bile duct,and ampullary cancers in the United States, 1997–2002

OBJECTIVE: Few investigations of biliary tract (gallbladder, extrahepatic bile duct, ampulla of Vater) cancers have been conducted because of the relative rarity of these malignancies. The objective of this analysis was to compare the demographic, pathological, and clinical features of biliary tract cancers among men and women. METHODS: Biliary tract cancers among 11,261 men and 15,722 women were identified through 33 US population-based registries during the period 1997-2002. These registries were estimated to represent 61% of the US population. Age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIR) were calculated per 100,000 population using counts derived from the 2000 US census. RESULTS: The AAIR for gallbladder cancer among men (0.82 per 100,000) was significantly lower than the AAIR among women (1.45 per 100,000). By contrast, rates for extrahepatic bile duct and ampullary cancers were significantly higher among men (0.93 per 100,000 and 0.70 per 100,000, respectively) than among women (0.61 per 100,000 and 0.45 per 100,000, respectively). White men and women had significantly lower AAIRs for gallbladder cancer compared with other racial-ethnic groups, with the highest rates among Hispanics, American Indian-Alaska Natives, and Asian-Pacific Islanders. Asian-Pacific Islanders and Hispanics of both sexes had the highest AAIRs for extrahepatic bile duct and ampullary cancers. Ampullary tumors were more likely to be diagnosed at a localized or regional stage than were cancers of the gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct. Asian-Pacific Islander men and women tended to have more unstaged cancers than other groups. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study suggests distinct etiologies of anatomic subsites of biliary tract cancer and caution against analytic investigations of all biliary tract cancers combined.