A prediction model incorporating the BRAFV600E protein status for determining the risk of cervical lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer patients with central lymph node metastasis

Background and objectivesCervical lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is a predictor of poor prognosis for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. However, the risk factors for LLNM remain unclear. The purpose of the study was to examine the risk factors for LLNM and construct a prediction model.MethodsWith Ethics Committee approval, a total of 1198 PTC patients were retrospectively included in our study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to explore the relationship between clinicopathological characteristics and LLNM. A nomogram for predicting LLNM in PTC patients with central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) was constructed and validated.ResultsThe negative BRAF^V600E protein expression was significantly correlated with positive LLNM status in PTC patients. In PTC patients with CLNM, the number of metastatic central lymph nodes (LNN) ≥ 3 and the ratio of metastatic central lymph nodes (LNR) ≥ 0.565 were found to be significantly associated with positive LLNM status. The nomogram for predicting LLNM risk in PTC patients with CLNM incorporated four risk factors: tumor size, the BRAF^V600E protein expression, LNN and LNR. The prediction model showed excellent discrimination, with a C-index of 0.714.ConclusionsThe negative BRAF^V600E protein expression was more likely to lead to LLNM. LNN ≥3 and LNR ≥0.565 were associated with LLNM risk in PTC patients with CLNM. Our nomogram might assist clinicians in developing individual suitable follow-up strategies for PTC patients with CLNM.     

A novel prognostic nomogram based on microvascular invasion and hematological biomarkers to predict survival outcome for hepatocellular carcinoma patients

PurposeThis study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for overall survival (OS) prediction in which combine clinical characteristics and hematological biomarkers in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of 807 HCC patients. All the clinical data of these patients were collected through electronic medical record (EMR). The independent predictive variables were identified by cox regression analysis. We tested the accuracy of the nomograms by discrimination and calibration, and then plotted decision curves to assess the benefits of nomogram-assisted decisions in a clinical context, and compared with the TNM staging systems and microvascular invasion (MVI) on HCC prognosis.ResultsThe primary cohort consisted of 545 patients with clinicopathologically diagnosed with HCC from 2008 to 2013, while 262 patients from 2014 to 2016 in external validation cohort. Variables included in the nomograms were TNM Stage, microvascular invasion (MVI), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and prothrombin time (PT). The C-index of nomogram was 0.768, which was superior than the C-index of TNM Stage (0.660, P < 0.001) and MVI(0.664, P < 0.001) alone in the primary cohort. In the validation cohort, the models had a C-index of 0.845, and were also statistically higher when compared to C-index values for TNM Stage (0.687, P < 0.001) and MVI(0.684, P < 0.001). Calibration curves showed adequate calibration of predicted and reported OS prediction throughout the range of HCC outcomes. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful than the TNM Stage and MVI alone. Moreover, patients were divided into three distinct risk groups for OS by the nomogram: low risk group, middle risk group and a high risk group, respectively.ConclusionThe nomogram presents more accurate and useful prognostic power, which could be used to predict OS for patients with HCC.     

A population-based study: how to identify high-risk T1 gastric cancer patients?

In T1 gastric cancer (GC), lymph nodes metastasis (LNM) is considered as a significant prognostic predictor and closely associated with following therapeutic approaches as well as distant metastasis (DM). This study aimed to not only seek risk factors of LNM and DM but also unpack the prognosis in T1 GC patients. We performed a retrospective study enrolling 5547 patients in T1 GC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were produced to recognize independent risk factors of LNM and DM. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify important prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). Cancer-specific cumulative incidence was plotted by cumulative incidence function. Three nomograms of LNM, DM and OS were established and validated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves to evaluate discrimination and accuracy. Decision curve analysis (DCA), clinical impact curves (CIC) and subgroups based on risk scores were constructed to measure nomograms clinical utility. The area under the curve (AUC) of LNM nomogram and DM nomogram were 0.735 and 0.896, respectively. OS nomogram was constructed and the corresponding C-index was 0.797. In conclusion, our user-friendly nomograms, which aimed to predict LNM, DM and OS in T1 gastric cancer patients, have shown high efficiency of discrimination and accuracy. These useful and visual tools may have advantageous clinical utility to identify high-risk T1 gastric patients and help clinicians to draw up an individual therapeutic strategy.     

基于SEER数据库的转移性结肠癌患者早期死亡预测列线图模型构建

目的构建预测转移性结肠癌(mCC)患者早期死亡的列线图模型。方法从SEER数据库中选择6669例符合条件的mCC患者。根据多因素Logistic回归中的危险因素构建列线图。通过C-index、校准曲线和临床决策曲线分析(DCA)评估列线图的预测性能。结果原发肿瘤位置、肿瘤分化、T分期、M分期、骨转移、脑转移、CEA、肿瘤大小、年龄和婚姻状态是mCC患者早期死亡的独立影响因素。基于这些变量构建列线图,C-index和校准曲线显示模型具有很好的预测能力,DCA曲线显示列线图可以使患者有较好的临床获益。结论该列线图具有良好的预测能力,能够帮助医生识别可能早期死亡的高危mCC患者,有助于制定个性化治疗策略。     

Preoperative prediction of central lymph node metastasis in cN0T1/T2 papillary thyroid carcinoma: A nomogram based on clinical and ultrasound characteristics

BackgroundPreoperative status of central lymph nodes is a key determinant of the initial surgical extent for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on preoperative clinical characteristics and ultrasound features to predict central lymph node status in patients with clinically lymph node-negative (cN0) T1/T2 PTC.MethodsThis retrospective study included 729 patients with cN0T1/T2 PTC who were treated between January 2015 and March 2020. Based on the ratio of 6:4, 431 patients who underwent surgeries relatively earlier comprised the training set to develop the nomogram, while the other 298 who underwent surgeries relatively later comprised validation set to validate the performance of nomogram. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify predictors of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM). These variables were used to construct a nomogram for predicting the risk of CLNM. The predictive performance, discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram model were evaluated in both sets.ResultsA total of 313 (42.9%) PTC patients were identified with CLNM. On multivariate logistic regression analyses, malegender, younger age, larger maximum diameter, multifocality, capsular invasion, infiltrative margins, intra-nodular vascularity, and aspect ratio >1 were independent risk factors for CLNM. Nomogram integrating these 8 factors showed excellent discrimination in the training [area under the curve (AUC): 0.788] and validation (AUC: 0.829) sets, and obtained well-fitted calibration curves. The cut-off value of this nomogram was 0.410 (～245 points). Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.ConclusionThe CLNM-predicting nomogram can facilitate stratification of cN0T1/T2 PTC patients. Prophylactic central neck lymph node dissection can be considered for those with high nomogram scores.     

Establishing and validating predictive nomograms for lateral pelvic lymph node metastasis in patients with rectal cancer based on radiologic factors and clinicopathologic characteristics

IntroductionIt is critical to accurately predict the occurrence of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPN) metastasis. Currently, verified predictive tools are unavailable. This study aims to establish nomograms for predicting LPN metastasis in patients with rectal cancer who received or did not receive neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).Materials and methodsWe carried out a retrospective study of patients with rectal cancer and clinical LPN metastasis who underwent total mesorectal excision (TME) and LPN dissection (LPND) from January 2012 to December 2019 at 3 institutions. We collected and evaluated their clinicopathologic and radiologic features, and constructed nomograms based on the multivariable logistic regression models.ResultsA total of 472 eligible patients were enrolled into the non-nCRT cohort (n = 312) and the nCRT cohort (n = 160). We established nomograms using variables from the multivariable logistic regression models in both cohorts. In the non-nCRT cohort, the variables included LPN short diameter, cT stage, cN stage, histologic grade, and malignant features, and the C-index was 0.930 in the training cohort and 0.913 in the validation cohort. In the nCRT cohort, the variables included post-nCRT LPN short diameter, ycT stage, ycN stage, histologic grade, and post-nCRT malignant features, and the C-index was 0.836 in the training dataset and 0.827 in the validation dataset. The nomograms in both cohorts were moderately calibrated and well-validated.ConclusionsWe established nomograms for patients with rectal cancer that accurately predict LPN metastasis. The performance of the nomograms in both cohorts was high and well-validated.     

Development and validation of prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma

ObjectiveOur aims were to establish novel nomogram models, which directly targeted patients with signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC), for individualized prediction of overall survival (OS) rate and cancer-specific survival (CSS).MethodsWe selected 1,365 SRC patients diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and then randomly partitioned them into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Independent predicted indicators, which were identified by using univariate testing and multivariate analyses, were used to construct our prognostic nomogram models. Three methods, Harrell concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve, were used to assess the ability of discrimination and predictive accuracy. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess clinical utility of our nomogram models.ResultsSix independent predicted indicators, age, race, log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), T stage, M stage and tumor size, were associated with OS rate. Nevertheless, only five independent predicted indicators were associated with CSS except race. The developed nomograms based on those independent predicted factors showed reliable discrimination. C-index of our nomogram for OS and CSS was 0.760 and 0.763, which were higher than American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.734 and 0.741, respectively). C-index of validation cohort for OS was 0.757 and for CSS was 0.773. The calibration curves also performed good consistency. IDI, NRI and DCA showed the nomograms for both OS and CSS had a comparable clinical utility than the TNM staging system.ConclusionsThe novel nomogram models based on LODDS provided satisfying predictive ability of SRC both in OS and CSS than AJCC 8th edition TNM staging system alone.     

A prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer liver metastases after percutaneous thermal ablation

Purpose: To assess the efficacy of percutaneous thermal ablation in treating colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRCLM), and to propose a prognostic nomogram for overall survival (OS).

Materials and methods: Seventy-one patients with CRCLM undergoing thermal ablation at our institute from 2009 to 2013 were identified and analysed to formulate a prognostic nomogram. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were calculated to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. The nomogram was compared with two current prognostic nomograms for patients with CRCLM who had undergone hepatectomy (Kattan) and selective internal radiation therapy (Fendler). Predictive validity was assessed in the validation cohort of 25 patients who had undergone thermal ablation from 2014 to 2016.

Results: The median OS in the primary cohort was 26.4?months, whereas the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates were 72.2%, 37.2% and 17%, respectively. The median progression-free survival was 4.2?months. After univariate and multivariate analysis, a prognostic nomogram was formulated based on four predictors, including the number of tumours, maximum diameter of the tumour, CA19–9 level and ablation margin. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.815. Based on the patients of this study, the C-index was significantly higher than that of the Fendler nomogram (C-index, 0.698) and Kattan nomogram (C-index, 0.514, p?Conclusions: Thermal ablation was an effective therapy for CRCLM. Moreover, the nomogram was effective and simple for CRCLM patients undergoing thermal ablation.     

Development and validation of a Surveillance,Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-based prognostic nomogram for predicting survival in elderly patients with gastric cancer after surgery

BackgroundElderly gastric cancer (ELGC) remains one of the intensively investigated topics during the last decades. To establish a comprehensive nomogram for effective clinical practice and assessment is of significance. This study is designed to develop a prognostic nomogram for ELGC both in overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).MethodsThe recruited cases were from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and input for the construction of nomogram.ResultsA total of 4,414 individuals were recruited for this study, of which 2,208 were randomly in training group and 2,206 were in validation group. In univariate analysis of OS, significant variables (P<0.05) included age, marital status, grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, bone/brain/liver/lung metastasis and tumor size. In univariate analysis of CSS, significant variables (P<0.05) included age, grade, AJCC TNM stage, bone/brain/liver/lung metastasis and tumor size. In multivariate analysis of OS, sex, age, race, grade, TNM stage, lung metastasis and tumor size were considered as the significant variables and subjected to the establishment of nomogram. In multivariable analysis of CSS, age, grade, TNM, tumor size were considered as the significant variables and input to the establishment of nomogram. Sex, age, race, grade, TNM stage, lung metastasis and tumor size were included for the establishment of nomogram in OS while age, grade, TNM, tumor size were included to the establishment of nomogram in CSS. C-index, decision curve analysis (DCA) and the area under the curve (AUC) showed distinct value of newly established nomogram models. Both OS and CSS nomograms showed higher statistic power over the AJCC stage.ConclusionsThis study established and validated novel nomogram models of OS and CSS for ELGC based on population dataset.     

基于SEER数据库脊索瘤临床预测模型的建立及验证

目的构建脊索瘤患者的预测模型并进行验证。方法从SEER数据库(2004~2015年)中鉴定和收集597例脊索瘤患者。Nomogram是基于建模组420例拥有完整数据的患者建立的。C指数(C-index)和校正曲线确定Nomogram的预测精度和判别能力。结果建立了基于年龄、种族、原发部位及数量、肿瘤分期(TNM)、手术方式、是否放疗、肿瘤转移和肿瘤大小等预后因素的预测模型,C指数为0.778。确定生存概率的校准曲线表明,Nomogram预测结果与实际观测结果吻合较好。年龄>60岁(P<0.001,HR 5.723,95%CI 1.988~16.474)、M1(P<0.001,HR 4.121,95%CI 1.834~9.257)、手术方式(全切除,P<0.01,HR0.416,95%CI 0.236~0.732;根治性扩大切除,P<0.0001,HR 0.251,95%CI 0.143~0.442)是独立预后因素。结论 Nomogram为脊柱脊索瘤患者提供了更准确的预后预测。本研究结果显示,年龄>60岁肿瘤分期M1和不进行手术是显著缩短脊索瘤患者生存时间的独立危险因素。     

Lymph node management in clinically node-negative patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma

Aims

Systematic lymph node dissection in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) remains controversial. The objective of this study was to study the pattern of lymph node spread in patients with PTC clinically node-negative and then to propose a lymph node management strategy.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the records of patients who had undergone total thyroidectomy and a systematic central neck dissection (CND) and lateral neck dissection. Ninety patients with PTC without lymph nodes metastases (LNM) detected on preoperative palpation and ultrasonographic examination were included.

Results

Forty-one patients (45.5%) had LNM. Twenty-eight patients (31%) had a central and a lateral involvement. Thirteen patients (14.5%) had only a central involvement. All the patients without LNM in the central compartment were also free in the lateral compartment. There was no correlation between LNM status and TNM staging.The largest LNM in the central compartment was smaller than or equal to 5 mm in 66% of the cases, and that could explain the lack of sensitivity of the preoperative ultrasonographic examination.

Conclusion

CND could be considered at preoperative or intraoperative diagnosis of PTC whereas lateral neck dissection should be performed only in patients with preoperative suspected and/or intraoperatively proven LNM. Systematic CND allows an objective evaluation of lymph node status in this central cervical area where the LNM are particularly small and difficult to detect preoperatively.     

Identification and validation of serum tumor-markers based nomogram to predict the prognostic value of patients with cervical adenocarcinoma

Unlike cervical squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC), no uniform standard has been implemented to identify serum biomarkers for adenocarcinoma of the cervix (ADC). In the present study, we aimed to determine whether pretreatment serum tumor markers were of prognostic value in patients with ADC and constructed and validated the novel accurate nomogram for stratifying the risk groups. Patients with ADC who underwent curative hysterectomy or definitive radiotherapy from January 2011 to December 2016 were included. Significant factors independently predicting prognosis were selected by univariate multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models and adopted for constructing the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) prediction nomograms. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and concordance index (C-index) with calibration curve was used to determine the accuracy of the nomogram in the prediction and determination of performance. We enrolled a total of 295 samples and randomized them as the training set (n = 207) or validation set (n = 88). Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Staging Guidelines (FIGO) stage, para-aortic lymph node (PALN), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), neuron-specific enolase (NSE), and HCG-β were assessed as the common factors independently predicting OS and PFS. For our constructed nomograms, its C-index values in OS and PFS prediction were 0.896 (95% CI, 0.879-0.913) and 0.895 (95% CI, 0.878-0.912) in training set, whereas 0.845 (95% CI:0.796-0.894) and 0.846 (95% CI:0.797-0.895) in validation set. ROC and calibration curves for our constructed nomograms predicted the excellent consistency of nomogram-predicted values with real measurements of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. We explored novel prognostic serum tumor markers of ADC and constructed effective nomograms comprising NSE, HCG-β, FIGO stage, PALN, and CEA, which could estimate OS and PFS for patients with ADC. These nomograms performed well in predicting patient prognosis, which was a potentially useful approach for stratifying ADC risk, thus contributing to clinical decision-making and individualized follow-up planning.     

Occult contralateral central neck metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma with preoperatively documented ipsilateral lateral neck metastasis

BackgroundThis study was conducted to evaluate risk factors and long-term prognosis of contralateral central neck metastasis (CCNM) in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patients with ipsilateral lateral neck metastasis. We present clinical evidence to aid in surgical decision-making regarding the extent of central neck dissection (CND), focusing on separation between ipsilateral and contralateral sides.MethodsA total of 379 PTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy and concomitant bilateral central neck dissection with ipsilateral lateral neck dissection (LND) at a single institution was retrospectively included between January 1997 and December 2015.ResultsThe median follow-up time was 83.2 months, the mean age was 44.3 years, and the mean tumor size was 1.5 cm. Among the study sample, 266 patients were female (70.2%) and 113 (29.8%) were male. Of 379 patients, CCNM was present in 34.6%. In multivariate analysis, male sex (adjusted OR = 2.46, p = 0.002), bilaterality (adjusted OR = 2.58, p = 0.004), number of metastatic ipsilateral central lymph nodes (adjusted OR = 1.15, p = 0.002), number of metastatic lateral lymph nodes (adjusted OR = 1.48, p < 0.001), and three-level metastasis (adjusted OR = 2.46, p = 0.012) were identified as risk factors of CCNM. Overall recurrence occurred in 6.0% and 11.5% of patients in the CCNM (-) group and CCNM (+) group, respectively. In addition, contralateral recurrence was observed in 1.2% patients and 0.8% patients in the CCNM (-) group and CCNM (+) group, respectively. However, CCNM did not significantly increase risk of recurrence (adjusted HR = 1.01, p = 0.981).ConclusionsAlthough the probability of pathological CCNM is not negligible, CCNM was not associated with higher risk of recurrence. This study suggest that central neck dissection may be limited to the ipsilateral side, and the result regarding prognosis of CCNM may help to avoid bilateral CND so that it could have potential to minimize unnecessary surgery-related complications such as recurrent laryngeal nerve(RLN) injury or hypoparathyroidism.     

Nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence in patients with adenoid cystic carcinoma. An international collaborative study

BackgroundDue to the rarity of adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC), information on outcome is based upon small retrospective case series. The aim of our study was to create a large multiinstitutional international dataset of patients with ACC in order to design predictive nomograms for outcome.MethodsACC patients managed at 10 international centers were identified. Patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics were recorded and an international collaborative dataset created. Multivariable competing risk models were then built to predict the 10 year recurrence free probability (RFP), distant recurrence free probability (DRFP), overall survival (OS) and cancer specific mortality (CSM). All predictors of interest were added in the starting full models before selection, including age, gender, tumor site, clinical T stage, perineural invasion, margin status, pathologic N-status, and M-status. Stepdown method was used in model selection to choose predictive variables. An external dataset of 99 patients from 2 other institutions was used to validate the nomograms.FindingsOf 438 ACC patients, 27.2% (119/438) died from ACC and 38.8% (170/438) died of other causes. Median follow-up was 56 months (range 1–306). The nomogram for OS had 7 variables (age, gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, margin status, pathologic N-status and M-status) with a concordance index (CI) of 0.71. The nomogram for CSM had the same variables, except margin status, with a concordance index (CI) of 0.70. The nomogram for RFP had 7 variables (age, gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, margin status, pathologic N status and perineural invasion) (CI 0.66). The nomogram for DRFP had 6 variables (gender, clinical T stage, tumor site, pathologic N-status, perineural invasion and margin status) (CI 0.64). Concordance index for the external validation set were 0.76, 0.72, 0.67 and 0.70 respectively.InterpretationUsing an international collaborative database we have created the first nomograms which estimate outcome in individual patients with ACC. These predictive nomograms will facilitate patient counseling in terms of prognosis and subsequent clinical follow-up. They will also identify high risk patients who may benefit from clinical trials on new targeted therapies for patients with ACC.FundingNone.     

Clinical implication of tumor site in terms of node metastasis for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

BackgroundThe clinical implication of lymph node (LN) dissection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICCA) is still controversial, and LN metastasis (LNM) based on tumor site has not been confirmed yet.MethodsPatients who underwent curative-intent surgery at 10 tertiary referral centers were identified and divided into peripheral (PP) and near second confluence level tumor (NC) groups on the basis of the distance from the second confluence and oncological outcomes were compared.ResultsOf 179 patients, 121 patients with LND were divided into the NC (n = 89) and PP groups (n = 32) on the basis of 4.5 cm from the second confluence. NC group showed higher LNM rate than PP group (46.1 vs 21.9%, p = 0.016) and NC was a risk factor for LNM (odds ratio: 4.367; 95% confidence interval: 1.234–15.453, p = 0.022). The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate (38.0% vs. 27.8%, p = 0.777) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates (22.8% vs. 25.8%, p = 0.742) showed no differences between the PP and NC groups. In the NC group, N1 patients showed worse 5-year OS (12.7% vs 39.0%, p = 0.004) and RFS (8.8% vs 28.6%, p = 0.004) than the N0 patients. In the PP group, discordant results in 5-year OS (48.9% vs. 50.0%, p = 0.462) and RFS (41.3% vs. 0%, p = 0.056) were found between the N0 and N1 patients.ConclusionThe NC group was an independent risk factor for LNM and LNM worsened prognosis in NC group for ICCA. In the PP group, LND should not be omitted because of high LNM rate and insufficient oncologic evidence.     

Development and validation of a nomogram for preoperative prediction of level VII nodal spread in papillary thyroid cancer: Radiologic-pathologic correlation

PurposeTo develop and validate a diagnostic nomogram for preoperative prediction of the level VII nodal spread in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) by incorporating CT features.MethodsA dataset of 7896 patients experiencing thyroidectomy for thyroid cancer was collected retrospectively from two hospitals, and 300 patients were finally included in this study. The CT features of metastatic LN were extracted with a one by one match of radiologic-pathologic correlation. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to develop predicting model, and then a nomogram was developed utilizing a primary cohort of 152 patients from hospital #1. The nomogram was validated in external cohort of 62 patients from hospital #2 and an independent cohort of 86 patients from hospital #1. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to its calibration, discrimination.Results531 LNs from 300 patients were analyzed. 42.6% LNs were > 5 mm in short diameter. A total of 7 selected CT features were significantly associated with LN status (P < 0.05), including nodular enhancement, cystic change, calcification and so on. These features were contained in the prediction nomogram. The model showed good discrimination and good calibration, with a C-index of 0.938 (95% CI, 0.913 to 0.963) and 0. 795 (95% CI, 0. 726 to 0.864) for the primary cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically applicable.ConclusionsThis nomogram incorporating pathologically relevant CT features has demonstrated a high diagnostic value for predicting level VII nodal spread in PTC. Our work may help thyroid surgeon to decide whether upper mediastinal lymphadenectomy should be performed, which is associated with thoracotomy or other surgery.     

四肢纤维肉瘤患者预后诺模图的开发和验证

目的:开发诺模图来预测原发于四肢纤维肉瘤患者的总体生存率(OS)和癌症特异性生存率(CSS)。方法:根据SEER数据库,收集原发于四肢纤维肉瘤病例。采用Cox比例风险回归模型对病例预后进行分析,获得独立的预测因素。这些独立的预测因子被整合在一起,形成了预测5年和10年OS及CSS的诺模图。使用R软件通过一致性指数(C-index指数）、ROC曲线和校准曲线图来评估诺模图的性能。结果:在OS的单因素和多因素分析中,年龄、病理分级、肿瘤大小和手术被确定为独立的危险因素。 在CSS的单变量和多变量分析中,病理分级、肿瘤大小和肿瘤分期被确定为独立的危险因素。 这些特征均整合在诺模图中以预测5年和10年OS和CSS,C指数分别为0.812和0.857。通过5年和10年OS和CSS的概率的C-index指数和AUG曲线显示,诺模图预测和观察结果之间具有很好的一致性。结论:诺模图可以准确地预测四肢纤维肉瘤患者的OS和CSS,并有助于个性化的预后评估和个性化的临床决策。     

Postoperative nomogram for 12-year sarcoma-specific death.

PURPOSE: Few published studies have analyzed risk factors for sarcoma-specific death. We developed and internally validated a nomogram that combines the factors to predict the probability of 12-year sarcoma-specific death using a database of 2,136 prospectively followed adult patients treated at a single institution. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Nomogram predictor variables included age at diagnosis, tumor size (< or = 5, 5 to 10, or > 10 cm), histologic grade (high or low), histologic subtype (fibrosarcoma, leiomyosarcoma, liposarcoma, malignant fibrous histiocytoma, malignant peripheral nerve tumor, synovial, or other), depth (superficial or deep), and site (upper extremity, lower extremity, visceral, thoracic or trunk, retrointraabdominal, or head or neck). Death from sarcoma or treatment complication was the predicted end point. Three prediction methods were compared, Kaplan-Meier analysis of all possible subsets, recursive partitioning, and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure with bootstrapping to correct for optimistic bias. RESULTS: Sarcoma-specific death at 12 years was 36% (95% confidence interval, 33% to 39%). The bootstrap-corrected concordance indices were as follows: Kaplan-Meier, 0.69; recursive partitioning, 0.74; and Cox regression, 0.77. A nomogram was drawn on the basis of the Cox regression model. This nomogram was internally validated using bootstrapping and shown to have excellent calibration. CONCLUSION: A nomogram has been developed to predict 12-year sarcoma-specific death. This tool may be useful for patient counseling, follow-up scheduling, and clinical trial eligibility determination.     

Development and External Validation of a Clinical Nomogram for Individually Predicting Survival of Metaplastic Breast Cancer

BackgroundFew studies have concerned the prognosis of metaplastic breast cancer (MpBC), a rare and diverse malignancy. A prognostic index estimating the MpBC survival would be attractive in clinical practice.Patients and MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed MpBC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Prognostic factors were identified and the final nomogram was developed to predict the 1-, 3-, or 5-year overall survival (OS). Calibration curves were provided to internally validate the performance of the nomogram and discriminative ability was appraised by concordance index (C-index).ResultsA total of 1017 MpBC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were assigned into 3:1 as training set (n = 763) and SEER validation set (n = 254). An external validation was performed by an individual set of 94 MpBC patients from National Cancer Center in China from 2010 to 2018. The nomogram finally consisted of 7 independent prognostic factors and presented a good accuracy for predicting the OS with the C-index of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.751-0.786). Interestingly, the nomogram based on the western (including 92.5% non-Asian) SEER validation population (C-index of nomogram: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.737-0.796) also has an optimal discrimination in Asian population (C-index of nomogram: 0.70). The calibration plots of the nomogram predictions were also accurate and corresponded closely with the actual survival rates.ConclusionThis novel nomogram was accurate enough to predict the OS by using readily available clinicopathologic factors in MpBC general population, which could provide individualized recommendations for patients and clinical decisions for physicians.     

甲状腺乳头状癌颈部淋巴结转移特点及清扫策略

背景与目的：目前,在甲状腺癌颈淋巴结清扫方面存有较大分歧。该研究总结甲状腺乳头状癌淋巴结转移的特点,为择区淋巴结清扫提供理论依据。方法：回顾性分析2006年7月—2014年8月收治的462例甲状腺乳头状癌患者病历资料,分析其淋巴结转移规律及其影响因素,评判cN0标准的准确性。结果：全组患者均行患侧中央区(Ⅵ区)淋巴结清扫,320例行侧颈区淋巴结清扫术(Ⅱ～Ⅴ区)或择区淋巴结清扫(Ⅱ～Ⅳ区中的部分或全部),90例行对侧中央区淋巴结活检。73.2%(338/462)符合cN0标准,病理证实其中有184例淋巴结转移,cN0标准误诊率达60.9%。颈部淋巴结总转移率为65.4%(302/462),侧颈区淋巴结转移率为42.6%(197/462),“跳跃转移”率为13.1%(42/320),对侧中央区淋巴结转移率为50%(45/90)。男性、肿瘤累及腺叶上1/3、肿瘤T3或T4、多中心病灶是淋巴结转移的危险因素。肿瘤累及腺叶上1/3是喉前淋巴结转移及“跳跃转移”的危险因素。喉前淋巴结转移及中央区淋巴结2个以上转移者侧颈区淋巴结转移率显著增加(分别为85.7%和83.3%, P＜0.05)。结论：现行cN0标准不能作为确定淋巴结清扫范围的依据;甲状腺乳头状癌易发生淋巴结转移,其中Ⅵ区淋巴结转移率最高,依次为Ⅲ区、Ⅱ区、Ⅳ区、Ⅴ区;初次手术应常规清扫患侧中央区淋巴结,建议将Ⅵ区淋巴结送冰冻病理;当喉前淋巴结有转移或Ⅵ区2个以上淋巴结转移时,或肿瘤累及腺叶上1/3者,有必要行侧颈区(或择区)淋巴结清扫;对侧中央区淋巴结转移率较高,需予以重视;中央区淋巴结再分亚区具有重要意义,应深入研究。