A comparison of administrative and physiologic predictive models in determining risk adjusted mortality rates in critically ill patients

Background

Hospitals are increasingly compared based on clinical outcomes adjusted for severity of illness. Multiple methods exist to adjust for differences between patients. The challenge for consumers of this information, both the public and healthcare providers, is interpreting differences in risk adjustment models particularly when models differ in their use of administrative and physiologic data. We set to examine how administrative and physiologic models compare to each when applied to critically ill patients.

Methods

We prospectively abstracted variables for a physiologic and administrative model of mortality from two intensive care units in the United States. Predicted mortality was compared through the Pearsons Product coefficient and Bland-Altman analysis. A subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department was analyzed to remove potential confounding changes in condition prior to ICU admission.

Results

We included 556 patients from two academic medical centers in this analysis. The administrative model and physiologic models predicted mortalities for the combined cohort were 15.3% (95% CI 13.7%, 16.8%) and 24.6% (95% CI 22.7%, 26.5%) (t-test p-value<0.001). The r² for these models was 0.297. The Bland-Atlman plot suggests that at low predicted mortality there was good agreement; however, as mortality increased the models diverged. Similar results were found when analyzing a subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department. When comparing the two hospitals, there was a statistical difference when using the administrative model but not the physiologic model. Unexplained mortality, defined as those patients who died who had a predicted mortality less than 10%, was a rare event by either model.

Conclusions

In conclusion, while it has been shown that administrative models provide estimates of mortality that are similar to physiologic models in non-critically ill patients with pneumonia, our results suggest this finding can not be applied globally to patients admitted to intensive care units. As patients and providers increasingly use publicly reported information in making health care decisions and referrals, it is critical that the provided information be understood. Our results suggest that severity of illness may influence the mortality index in administrative models. We suggest that when interpreting “report cards” or metrics, health care providers determine how the risk adjustment was made and compares to other risk adjustment models.     

Elevated hemostasis markers after pneumonia increases one-year risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths

Background

Acceleration of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease, may increase long-term mortality after community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), but underlying mechanisms are unknown. Persistence of the prothrombotic state that occurs during an acute infection may increase risk of subsequent atherothrombosis in patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease and increase subsequent risk of death. We hypothesized that circulating hemostasis markers activated during CAP persist at hospital discharge, when patients appear to have recovered clinically, and are associated with higher mortality, particularly due to cardiovascular causes.

Methods

In a cohort of survivors of CAP hospitalization from 28 US sites, we measured D-Dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complexes [TAT], Factor IX, antithrombin, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 at hospital discharge, and determined 1-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Results

Of 893 subjects, most did not have severe pneumonia (70.6% never developed severe sepsis) and only 13.4% required intensive care unit admission. At discharge, 88.4% of subjects had normal vital signs and appeared to have clinically recovered. D-dimer and TAT levels were elevated at discharge in 78.8% and 30.1% of all subjects, and in 51.3% and 25.3% of those without severe sepsis. Higher D-dimer and TAT levels were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (range of hazard ratios were 1.66-1.17, p = 0.0001 and 1.46-1.04, p = 0.001 after adjusting for demographics and comorbid illnesses) and cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.009 and 0.003 in competing risk analyses).

Conclusions

Elevations of TAT and D-dimer levels are common at hospital discharge in patients who appeared to have recovered clinically from pneumonia and are associated with higher risk of subsequent deaths, particularly due to cardiovascular disease.     

Severe imported falciparum malaria: a cohort study in 400 critically ill adults

Background

Large studies on severe imported malaria in non-endemic industrialized countries are lacking. We sought to describe the clinical spectrum of severe imported malaria in French adults and to identify risk factors for mortality at admission to the intensive care unit.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Retrospective review of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria episodes according to the 2000 World Health Organization definition and requiring admission to the intensive care unit. Data were collected from medical charts using standardised case-report forms, in 45 French intensive care units in 2000–2006. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses.Data from 400 adults admitted to the intensive care unit were analysed, representing the largest series of severe imported malaria to date. Median age was 45 years; 60% of patients were white, 96% acquired the disease in sub-Saharan Africa, and 65% had not taken antimalarial chemoprophylaxis. Curative quinine treatment was used in 97% of patients. Intensive care unit mortality was 10.5% (42 deaths). By multivariate analysis, three variables at intensive care unit admission were independently associated with hospital death: older age (per 10-year increment, odds ratio [OR], 1.72; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.28–2.32; P = 0.0004), Glasgow Coma Scale score (per 1-point decrease, OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.20–1.45; P<0.0001), and higher parasitemia (per 5% increment, OR, 1.41; 95%CI, 1.22–1.62; P<0.0001).

Conclusions and Significance

In a large population of adults treated in a non-endemic industrialized country, severe malaria still carried a high mortality rate. Our data, including predictors of death, can probably be generalized to other non-endemic countries where high-quality healthcare is available.     

"Hospital at home" versus hospital care in patients with exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: prospective randomised controlled trial

ObjectivesTo compare “hospital at home” and hospital care as an inpatient in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.DesignProspective randomised controlled trial with three months'' follow up.SettingUniversity teaching hospital offering secondary care service to 350 000 patients.PatientsSelected patients with an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease where hospital admission had been recommended after medical assessment.InterventionsNurse administered home care was provided as an alternative to inpatient admission.Results583 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease referred for admission were assessed. 192 met the criteria for home care, and 42 refused to enter the trial. 100 were randomised to home care and 50 to hospital care. On admission, FEV₁ after use of a bronchodilator was 36.1% (95% confidence interval 2.4% to 69.8%) predicted in home care and 35.1% (6.3% to 63.9%) predicted in hospital care. No significant difference was found in FEV₁ after use of a bronchodilator at two weeks (42.6%, 3.4% to 81.8% versus 42.1%, 5.1% to 79.1%) or three months (41.5%, 8.2% to 74.8% versus 41.9%, 6.2% to 77.6%) between the groups. 37% of patients receiving home care and 34% receiving hospital care were readmitted at three months. No significant difference was found in mortality between the groups at three months (9% versus 8%).ConclusionsHospital at home care is a practical alternative to emergency admission in selected patients with exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.     

Is it possible to exclude a diagnosis of myocardial damage within six hours of admission to an emergency department? Diagnostic cohort study

ObjectiveTo assess the clinical efficacy and accuracy of an emergency department based six hour rule-out protocol for myocardial damage.DesignDiagnostic cohort study.SettingEmergency department of an inner city university hospital.Participants383 consecutive patients aged over 25 years with chest pain of less than 12 hours'' duration who were at low to moderate risk of acute myocardial infarction.InterventionSerial measurements of creatine kinase MB mass and continuous ST segment monitoring for six hours with 12 leads.ResultsOutcome of the gold standard test was available for 292 patients. On the diagnostic test for the protocol, 53 patients had positive results and 239 patients had negative results. There were 18 false positive results and one false negative result. Sensitivity was 97.2% (95% confidence interval 95.0% to 99.0%), specificity 93.0% (90.0% to 96.0%), the negative predictive value 99.6%, and the positive predictive value 66.0%. The positive likelihood ratio was 13.9 and the negative likelihood ratio 0.03.ConclusionsThe six hour rule-out protocol for myocardial infarction is accurate and efficacious. It can be used in patients presenting to emergency departments with chest pain indicating a low to moderate risk of myocardial infarction.

What is already known on this topic

Many patients with chest pain in emergency departments indicating a low to moderate risk of myocardial infarction are admitted to rule out myocardial damageSome 6% of those discharged have undiagnosed myocardial damage

What this study adds

An emergency department based chest pain assessment unit protocol to rule out myocardial damage is sensitive enough to allow safe discharge of patients at low to moderate risk of myocardial infarction within six hoursSuch units can also reduce the number of patients admitted unnecessarily     

Multicenter evaluation of a novel surveillance paradigm for complications of mechanical ventilation

Background

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) surveillance is time consuming, subjective, inaccurate, and inconsistently predicts outcomes. Shifting surveillance from pneumonia in particular to complications in general might circumvent the VAP definition''s subjectivity and inaccuracy, facilitate electronic assessment, make interfacility comparisons more meaningful, and encourage broader prevention strategies. We therefore evaluated a novel surveillance paradigm for ventilator-associated complications (VAC) defined by sustained increases in patients'' ventilator settings after a period of stable or decreasing support.

Methods

We assessed 600 mechanically ventilated medical and surgical patients from three hospitals. Each hospital contributed 100 randomly selected patients ventilated 2–7 days and 100 patients ventilated >7 days. All patients were independently assessed for VAP and for VAC. We compared incidence-density, duration of mechanical ventilation, intensive care and hospital lengths of stay, hospital mortality, and time required for surveillance for VAP and for VAC. A subset of patients with VAP and VAC were independently reviewed by a physician to determine possible etiology.

Results

Of 597 evaluable patients, 9.3% had VAP (8.8 per 1,000 ventilator days) and 23% had VAC (21.2 per 1,000 ventilator days). Compared to matched controls, both VAP and VAC prolonged days to extubation (5.8, 95% CI 4.2–8.0 and 6.0, 95% CI 5.1–7.1 respectively), days to intensive care discharge (5.7, 95% CI 4.2–7.7 and 5.0, 95% CI 4.1–5.9), and days to hospital discharge (4.7, 95% CI 2.6–7.5 and 3.0, 95% CI 2.1–4.0). VAC was associated with increased mortality (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3–3.2) but VAP was not (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.5–2.4). VAC assessment was faster (mean 1.8 versus 39 minutes per patient). Both VAP and VAC events were predominantly attributable to pneumonia, pulmonary edema, ARDS, and atelectasis.

Conclusions

Screening ventilator settings for VAC captures a similar set of complications to traditional VAP surveillance but is faster, more objective, and a superior predictor of outcomes.     

Variability of intensive care admission decisions for the very elderly

Although increasing numbers of very elderly patients are requiring intensive care, few large sample studies have investigated ICU admission of very elderly patients. Data on pre triage by physicians from other specialities is limited. This observational cohort study aims at examining inter-hospital variability of ICU admission rates and its association with patients'' outcomes. All patients over 80 years possibly qualifying for ICU admission who presented to the emergency departments (ED) of 15 hospitals in the Paris (France) area during a one-year period were prospectively included in the study. Main outcome measures were ICU eligibility, as assessed by the ED and ICU physicians; in-hospital mortality; and vital and functional status 6 months after the ED visit. 2646 patients (median age 86; interquartile range 83–91) were included in the study. 94% of participants completed follow-up (n = 2495). 12.4% (n = 329) of participants were deemed eligible for ICU admission by ED physicians and intensivists. The overall in-hospital and 6-month mortality rates were respectively 27.2% (n = 717) and 50.7% (n = 1264). At six months, 57.5% (n = 1433) of patients had died or had a functional deterioration. Rates of patients deemed eligible for ICU admission ranged from 5.6% to 38.8% across the participating centers, and this variability persisted after adjustment for patients'' characteristics. Despite this variability, we found no association between level of ICU eligibility and either in-hospital death or six-month death or functional deterioration. In France, the likelihood that a very elderly person will be admitted to an ICU varies widely from one hospital to another. Influence of intensive care admission on patients'' outcome remains unclear.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00912600","term_id":"NCT00912600"}}NCT00912600     

Geriatric conditions in acutely hospitalized older patients: prevalence and one-year survival and functional decline

Background

To study the prevalence of eighteen geriatric conditions in older patients at admission, their reporting rate in discharge summaries and the impact of these conditions on mortality and functional decline one year after admission.

Method

A prospective multicenter cohort study conducted between 2006 and 2008 in two tertiary university teaching hospitals and one regional teaching hospital in the Netherlands. Patients of 65 years and older, acutely admitted and hospitalized for at least 48 hours, were invited to participate. Eighteen geriatric conditions were assessed at hospital admission, and outcomes (mortality, functional decline) were assessed one year after admission.

Results

639 patients were included, with a mean age of 78 years. IADL impairment (83%), polypharmacy (61%), mobility difficulty (59%), high levels of primary caregiver burden (53%), and malnutrition (52%) were most prevalent. Except for polypharmacy and cognitive impairment, the reporting rate of the geriatric conditions in discharge summaries was less than 50%. One year after admission, 35% had died and 33% suffered from functional decline. A high Charlson comorbidity index score, presence of malnutrition, high fall risk, presence of delirium and premorbid IADL impairment were associated with mortality and overall poor outcome (mortality or functional decline). Obesity lowered the risk for mortality.

Conclusion

Geriatric conditions were highly prevalent and associated with poor health outcomes after admission. Early recognition of these conditions in acutely hospitalized older patients and improving the handover to the general practitioner could lead to better health outcomes and reduce the burden of hospital admission for older patients.     

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification

Objectives

Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients.

Methods

We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes.

Results

Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4–5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4–5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93–1.88; p = 0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71–3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28–13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09–11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05–3.67; p = 0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70–8.02; p = 0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001).

Conclusions

A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients.     

Acute kidney injury biomarkers for patients in a coronary care unit: a prospective cohort study

Background

Renal dysfunction is an established predictor of all-cause mortality in intensive care units. This study analyzed the outcomes of coronary care unit (CCU) patients and evaluated several biomarkers of acute kidney injury (AKI), including neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), interleukin-18 (IL-18) and cystatin C (CysC) on the first day of CCU admission.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Serum and urinary samples collected from 150 patients in the coronary care unit of a tertiary care university hospital between September 2009 and August 2010 were tested for NGAL, IL-18 and CysC. Prospective demographic, clinical and laboratory data were evaluated as predictors of survival in this patient group. The most common cause of CCU admission was acute myocardial infarction (80%). According to Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria, 28.7% (43/150) of CCU patients had AKI of varying severity. Cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up following hospital discharge differed significantly (p<0.05) between patients with AKI versus those without AKI. For predicting AKI, serum CysC displayed an excellent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.895±0.031, p<0.001). The overall 180-day survival rate was 88.7% (133/150). Multiple Cox logistic regression hazard analysis revealed that urinary NGAL, serum IL-18, Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and sodium on CCU admission day one were independent risk factors for 6-month mortality. In terms of 6-month mortality, urinary NGAL had the best discriminatory power, the best Youden index, and the highest overall correctness of prediction.

Conclusions

Our data showed that serum CysC has the best discriminative power for predicting AKI in CCU patients. However, urinary NGAL and serum IL-18 are associated with short-term mortality in these critically ill patients.     

Reducing the risk of major elective surgery: randomised controlled trial of preoperative optimisation of oxygen delivery

ObjectivesTo determine whether preoperative optimisation of oxygen delivery improves outcome after major elective surgery, and to determine whether the inotropes, adrenaline and dopexamine, used to enhance oxygen delivery influence outcome.DesignRandomised controlled trial with double blinding between inotrope groups.SettingYork District Hospital, England.Subjects138 patients undergoing major elective surgery who were at risk of developing postoperative complications either because of the surgery or the presence of coexistent medical conditions.InterventionsPatients were randomised into three groups. Two groups received invasive haemodynamic monitoring, fluid, and either adrenaline or dopexamine to increase oxygen delivery. Inotropic support was continued during surgery and for at least 12 hours afterwards. The third group (control) received routine perioperative care.ResultsOverall, 3/92 (3%) preoptimised patients died compared with 8/46 controls (17%) (P=0.007). There were no differences in mortality between the treatment groups, but 14/46 (30%) patients in the dopexamine group developed complications compared with 24/46 (52%) patients in the adrenaline group (difference 22%, 95% confidence interval 2% to 41%) and 28 patients (61%) in the control group (31%, 11% to 50%). The use of dopexamine was associated with a decreased length of stay in hospital.ConclusionRoutine preoperative optimisation of patients undergoing major elective surgery would be a significant and cost effective improvement in perioperative care.

Key messages

• Major elective surgery in UK general hospitals still carries significant mortality and morbidity
• Preoperative administration of fluid and inotropes, guided by invasive monitoring, can significantly reduce mortality, morbidity, and length of hospital stay
• The choice of inotrope may influence the extent of improvements in outcome
• Routine preoperative optimisation would require initial investment in high dependency care facilities but is likely to be cost effective by reducing complications and length of hospital stay

     

Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART.

Methods and Findings

We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year.

Conclusions

The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection and hospitalization in high-risk patients in the year following detection

Background

Many studies have evaluated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections during single hospitalizations and subsequent readmissions to the same institution. None have assessed the comprehensive burden of MRSA infection in the period after hospital discharge while accounting for healthcare utilization across institutions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients insured by Harvard Pilgrim Health Care who were newly-detected to harbor MRSA between January 1991 and December 2003 at a tertiary care medical center. We evaluated all MRSA-attributable infections associated with hospitalization in the year following new detection, regardless of hospital location. Data were collected on comorbidities, healthcare utilization, mortality and MRSA outcomes. Of 591 newly-detected MRSA carriers, 23% were colonized and 77% were infected upon detection. In the year following detection, 196 (33%) patients developed 317 discrete and unrelated MRSA infections. The most common infections were pneumonia (34%), soft tissue (27%), and primary bloodstream (18%) infections. Infections occurred a median of 56 days post-detection. Of all infections, 26% involved bacteremia, and 17% caused MRSA-attributable death. During the admission where MRSA was newly-detected, 14% (82/576) developed subsequent infection. Of those surviving to discharge, 24% (114/482) developed post-discharge infections in the year following detection. Half (99/185, 54%) of post-discharge infections caused readmission, and most (104/185, 55%) occurred over 90 days post-discharge.

Conclusions/Significance

In high-risk tertiary care patients, newly-detected MRSA carriage confers large risks of infection and substantial attributable mortality in the year following acquisition. Most infections occur post-discharge, and 18% of infections associated with readmission occurred in hospitals other than the one where MRSA was newly-detected. Despite gains in reducing MRSA infections during hospitalization, the risk of MRSA infection among critically and chronically ill carriers persists after discharge and warrants targeted prevention strategies.     

Images of the good doctor in Western medicine: The doctor-patient relationship

ObjectiveTo determine whether the management of head injuries differs between patients aged ⩾65 years and those <65.DesignProspective observational national study over four years.Setting25 Scottish hospitals that admit trauma patients.Participants527 trauma patients with extradural or acute subdural haematomas.ResultsPatients aged ⩾65 years had lower survival rates than patients <65 years. Rates were 15/18 (83%) v 165/167 (99%) for extradural haematoma (P=0.007) and 61/93 (66%) v 229/249 (92%) for acute subdural haematoma (P<0.001). Older patients were less likely to be transferred to specialist neurosurgical care (10 (56%) v 142 (85%) for extradural haematoma (P=0.005) and 56 (60%) v 192 (77%) for subdural haematoma (P=0.004)). There was no significant difference between age groups in the incidence of neurosurgical interventions in patients who were transferred. Logistic regression analysis showed that age had a significant independent effect on transfer and on survival. Older patients had higher rates of coexisting medical conditions than younger patients, but when severity of injury, initial physiological status at presentation, or previous health were controlled for in a log linear analysis, transfer rates were still lower in older patients than in younger patients (P<0.001).ConclusionsCompared with those aged under 65 years, people aged 65 and over have a worse prognosis after head injury complicated by intracranial haematoma. The decision to transfer such patients to neurosurgical care seems to be biased against older patients.

What is already known on this topic

Older patients with acute intracranial haematomas have significantly higher mortality and poorer functional outcome than younger patients with similar injuriesIntracranial haematomas are larger and more common in older patients with head injury than in younger patientsEarly diagnosis and surgical intervention for operable lesions is a crucial factor in determining patients'' outcomes

What this study adds

Older patients with acute intracranial haematomas were less likely to be transferred for specialist neurosurgical care than younger patients with similar severities of injuries, extracranial injuries, and physiological status at presentationSignificant differences in transfer rates related to age were still seen after pre-existing medical conditions were controlled for     

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized older patients with distinct risk profiles for functional decline: a prospective cohort study

Background

The aim of this research was to study the clinical characteristics and mortality and disability outcomes of patients who present distinct risk profiles for functional decline at admission.

Methods

Multicenter, prospective cohort study conducted between 2006 and 2009 in three hospitals in the Netherlands in consecutive patients of ≥65 years, acutely admitted and hospitalized for at least 48 hours. Nineteen geriatric conditions were assessed at hospital admission, and mortality and functional decline were assessed until twelve months after admission. Patients were divided into risk categories for functional decline (low, intermediate or high risk) according to the Identification of Seniors at Risk-Hospitalized Patients.

Results

A total of 639 patients were included, with a mean age of 78 years. Overall, 27%, 33% and 40% of the patients were at low, intermediate or high risk, respectively, for functional decline. Low-risk patients had fewer geriatric conditions (mean 2.2 [standard deviation [SD] 1.3]) compared with those at intermediate (mean 3.8 [SD 2.1]) or high risk (mean 5.1 [SD 1.8]) (p<0.001). Twelve months after admission, 39% of the low-risk group had an adverse outcome, compared with 50% in the intermediate risk group and 69% in the high risk group (p<0.001).

Conclusion

By using a simple risk assessment instrument at hospital admission, patients at low, intermediate or high risk for functional decline could be identified, with distinct clinical characteristics and outcomes. This approach should be tested in clinical practice and research and might help appropriately tailor patient care.     

Screening for diabetes in general practice: cross sectional population study

ObjectiveTo assess the policy proposed by the American Diabetes Association of universal screening in general practice of all patients aged over 45 years for diabetes.Design Cross sectional population study.Setting Local general practice in the United Kingdom.Participants All patients aged over 45 not known to have diabetes.Results Of 2481 patients aged over 45 and not known to have diabetes, 876 attended for screening. There were no significant demographic differences between the screened and unscreened patients. Prevalence of diabetes in patients with age as a sole risk factor was 0.2% (95% confidence interval 0% to 1.4%). Prevalence of diabetes in patients with age and one or more other risk factors (hypertension, obesity, or a family history of diabetes) was 2.8% (1.6% to 4.7%). Four hours a week for a year would be needed to screen all people over 45 in the practice''s population; about half this time would be needed to screen patients with risk factors other than age. More than 80% of patients newly diagnosed as having diabetes had a 10 year risk of coronary heart disease >15%, 73% (45% to 92%) were hypertensive, and 73% (45% to 92%) had a cholesterol concentration >5 mmol/l.Conclusions Screening for diabetes in general practice by measuring fasting blood glucose is feasible but has a very low yield in patients whose sole risk factor for diabetes is age over 45. Screening in a low risk population would best be targeted at patients with multiple risk factors.

What is already known on this topic

Between a third and a half of cases of diabetes are undiagnosed at any one timeNew cases can be identified by screening groups of patients at riskThe American Diabetes Association has proposed the screening of all patients aged over 45 every three years

What this study adds

Screening for diabetes in general practice by measuring fasting blood glucose is feasible but requires much staff timeScreening solely on the basis of age has a very low yield and screening would best be targeted at patients with multiple risk factors for diabetes     

Late entry into HIV care: estimated impact on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil, 2003-2006

Background

Worldwide, a high proportion of HIV-infected individuals enter into HIV care late. Here, our objective was to estimate the impact that late entry into HIV care has had on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed data from information systems regarding HIV-infected adults who sought treatment at public health care facilities in Brazil from 2003 to 2006. We initially estimated the prevalence of late entry into HIV care, as well as the probability of death in the first 12 months, the percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry, and the number of avoidable deaths. We subsequently adjusted the annual AIDS mortality rate by excluding such deaths. Of the 115,369 patients evaluated, 50,358 (43.6%) had entered HIV care late, and 18,002 died in the first 12 months, representing a 16.5% probability of death in the first 12 months (95% CI: 16.3–16.7). By comparing patients who entered HIV care late with those who gained timely access, we found that the risk ratio for death was 49.5 (95% CI: 45.1–54.2). The percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry was 95.5%, translating to 17,189 potentially avoidable deaths. Averting those deaths would have lowered the 2003–2006 AIDS mortality rate by 39.5%. Including asymptomatic patients with CD4⁺ T cell counts >200 and ≤350 cells/mm³ in the group who entered HIV care late increased this proportion by 1.8%.

Conclusions/Significance

In Brazil, antiretroviral drugs reduced AIDS mortality by 43%. Timely entry would reduce that rate by a similar proportion, as well as resulting in a 45.2% increase in the effectiveness of the program for HIV care. The World Health Organization recommendation that asymptomatic patients with CD4⁺ T cell counts ≤350 cells/mm³ be treated would not have a significant impact on this scenario.     

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients

Background

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25^th, 50^th, and 75^th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032).

Conclusions/Significance

An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.     

Trends in breast cancer mortality in Sweden before and after implementation of mammography screening

Background

Incidence-based mortality modelling comparing the risk of breast cancer death in screened and unscreened women in nine Swedish counties has suggested a 39% risk reduction in women 40 to 69 years old after introduction of mammography screening in the 1980s and 1990s.

Objective

We evaluated changes in breast cancer mortality in the same nine Swedish counties using a model approach based on official Swedish breast cancer mortality statistics, robust to effects of over-diagnosis and treatment changes. Using mortality data from the NordCan database from 1974 until 2003, we estimated the change in breast cancer mortality before and after introduction of mammography screening in at least the 13 years that followed screening start.

Results

Breast mortality decreased by 16% (95% CI: 9 to 22%) in women 40 to 69, and by 11% (95% CI: 2 to 20%) in women 40 to 79 years of age.

Discussion

Without individual data it is impossible to completely separate the effects of improved treatment and health service organisation from that of screening, which would bias our results in favour of screening. There will also be some contamination of post-screening mortality from breast cancer diagnosed prior to screening, beyond our attempts to adjust for delayed benefit. This would bias against screening. However, our estimates from publicly available data suggest considerably lower benefits than estimates based on comparison of screened versus non-screened women.