An early warning criterion for the prediction of snowmelt-induced soil slope failures in seasonally cold regions

In Hokkaido, Japan, soil slope failures occur frequently during the snow melting season. These slope failures are triggered by the excess amount of water derived from snowmelt and rainfall. For the prediction of snowmelt-induced soil slope failures in seasonally cold regions, an early warning criterion is required. The existing Japanese early warning criteria for sediment disasters, i.e., the relationship between the 60-min cumulative rainfall and the Soil Water Index (SWI), the effective rainfall index etc., consider the influence of rainfall and the time-dependent random moisture of the soil. However, these criteria do not consider the soil moisture contributed by the snowmelt water. In this study, therefore, the applicability of the existing early warning criteria to predict snowmelt-induced soil slope failures is examined. An empirical method to quantify the amount of snowmelt water is presented. Various scenarios of conceptual soil slope failures are studied using numerical simulations under different magnitudes of rainfall and snowmelt water. As a result, a revision is introduced for the SWI and the effective rainfall index, adding the amount of snowmelt water to that of rainfall, and slope failure scenarios are studied. Based on the results, a new early warning criterion, the Effective Precipitation (EP) index, is introduced. It is found that the new failure criterion performs well for the prediction of snowmelt-induced soil slope failures.     

Clarifying the hydrological mechanisms and thresholds for rainfall-induced landslide: in situ monitoring of big data to unsaturated slope stability analysis

The development of early warning systems for landslide hazards has long been a challenge because the accuracy of such systems is limited by both the complicated underlying mechanisms of landslides and the lack of in situ data. In this study, we implemented a multivariate threshold criterion that integrates in situ monitoring data and data from unsaturated hydro-mechanical analyses as an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in the Wenchuan earthquake region of China. The results indicate that rainfall intensity is closely correlated with the probability of landslide occurrence. Variations in matric suction and suction stress were obtained from in situ measurements and used to quantify the soil water retention curve, which presented clear hysteresis characteristics. The impacts of rainfall infiltration on slope failure in post-earthquake landslide areas under transient rainfall conditions were quantified by hydro-mechanical modelling theories. Variations in the suction stress of unsaturated soil were used to calculate the safety factor. The influence of hydrological hysteresis processes on the slope failure mechanism was analysed. Multivariate threshold criteria that include the intensity–probability (I-P) threshold, soil moisture and matric suction based on in situ big data and unsaturated slope stability analysis benchmarks are proposed for use in an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides.

     

Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Landslide is a common geological hazard in reservoir areas and may cause great damage to local residents’ life and property. It is widely accepted that rainfall and periodic variation of water level are the two main factors triggering reservoir landslides. In this study, the Bazimen landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was back-analyzed as a case study. Based on the statistical features of the last 3-year monitored data and field instrumentations, the landslide susceptibility in an annual cycle and four representative periods was investigated via the deterministic and probabilistic analysis, respectively. The results indicate that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level plays a pivotal role in inducing slope failures, for the minimum stability coefficient occurs at the rapid decline period of water level. The probabilistic analysis results reveal that the initial sliding surface is the most important area influencing the occurrence of landslide, compared with other parts in the landslide. The seepage calculations from probabilistic analysis imply that rainfall is a relatively inferior factor affecting slope stability. This study aims to provide preliminary guidance on risk management and early warning in the TGR area.     

降雨诱发粉土边坡失稳的离心模型试验及雨强-历时警戒曲线的验证

中国东南沿海山地丘陵地区气候湿润,每年梅雨季和台风侵袭时都伴随有大量土质滑坡,研究降雨诱发土质滑坡的失稳模式和机理对该类滑坡预警预报及防治具有重要意义。笔者自行研制了离心机机载降雨模拟装置,在50g条件下模拟和再现了非饱和粉土边坡在不同强度降雨条件下的失稳破坏过程,揭示了降雨诱发粉土边坡的失稳模式为坡脚局部失稳—向上扩展—整体浅层滑动,滑动面深度介于1~3 m。3组试验获得了降雨强度与边坡失稳时降雨历时关系数据,与李鹤等针对东南沿海地区残积土边坡提出的雨强-历时警戒曲线（I-D曲线）最为接近,验证了该降雨量警戒曲线的有效性。对离心模型试验结果进行反分析表明：非饱和土渗流分析能有效模拟边坡降雨入渗过程,而现有极限平衡分析方法难以准确捕捉降雨诱发边坡由局部向整体发展的失稳过程。基于所揭示的失稳模式,指出了该类降雨诱发滑坡的有效防治措施主要包括坡脚加强排水和支护、坡面防渗和防护。     

Wide / narrow-area slope stability analysis considering infiltration and runoff during heavy precipitation

Runoff generated by heavy rainfall in natural catchment area and caused by ditch clogging in artificial structure increases the instability of the slope. The effects of runoff are usually neglected in traditional rainfall-induced slope failure analysis. In order to consider the effects of runoff on the slope instability, this study attempts to simulate the runoff, infiltration and slope instabilities simultaneously on both wide/narrow area. For this purpose, this study firstly proposes a coupled model of surface flow, subsurface flow, and soil mechanics based on Diffusion wave equations, Richards’s equation, Green-Ampt infiltration capacity model, and local factor of safety approach in wide area simulation. Next, snowmelt and surface grass layer are additionally considered in narrow area simulation. Finally, the proposed coupled model is applied to two slopes at Nissho Pass and Kuromatsunai in Hokkaido, Japan. The slope instabilities assessment approach provides an effective method for simulating runoff and slope instabilities. In wide area, the distribution map of the factor of safety has significant implications for precisely determining the dangerous spots and accurately releasing the warning information. In narrow area, the slope disaster points caused by the ditch clogging are extracted and effect of grass layer on slope stability assessment is demonstrated. The construction and maintenance of the drainage system can be re-designed to ensure all the surface flow caused by the precipitation drain out smoothly.     

Rainfall-induced failures of volcanic slopes subjected to freezing and thawing

Rainfall- and earthquake-induced failures of slopes formed by volcanic soils occur frequently in Hokkaido, Japan. The aim of this study is to clarify the failure mechanisms of volcanic slopes caused by both rainfall and freeze–thaw action in cold regions such as Hokkaido. Using model slopes of different shapes formed by volcanic soils, a series of rainfall tests are conducted under field conditions in which a spray nozzle is used to simulate rainfall intensity. Test results show that the surface failure of volcanic slopes differs depending strongly on the angle and the initial moisture content of the slopes. Based on the results of the model testing, the effects of freezing and thawing on the failure mechanism are drawn upon to propose an evaluation method for slope stability. In consideration of the model test results, it is found that the formation of a frozen layer and the softening of the slope surface, due to the freeze–thaw action, are significant for the stability of volcanic slopes in cold regions, and that slope failure can be uniquely assessed by the changes in water content in zones subjected to rainfall and freeze–thaw action.     

寒地城市双层潜流池处理道路冰雪的方法及低温菌群适应性研究

中国北方寒地城市水资源紧张,冬季积雪的收集和处理难度较大,城市的可利用雪水堆放空间少,现有清雪方式低效耗能,造成环境污染。文中基于北方城市街道空间结构特点,利用街道两侧人行道和绿化带下方空间,设置双层潜流池作为冬季融雪和雪水收集与处理空间,从而实现常季雨水和冬季融雪的跨季连续运行,经格栅过滤颗粒物后,雨水和雪水可以在冬季气候条件下,通过微生物填料进行处置,COD的去除率达到80%以上,悬浮物的去除率在90%以上。通过分析不同工艺段填料表面的微生物种群,发现存在低温降解菌,能够在4~10℃左右存活,以Halomonas和TM6_Dependentiae_norank属为主的微生物为主要种群,能有效处理下层过滤池储存的雨水和雪水。处理后的雨水和雪水,待开春后可以用于街道喷洒和景观用水,从而为北方城市道路冰雪的快速处理和海绵城市战略在寒地的跨季实施,提供了一个有效的技术解决方案。     

Modeling the elution of organic chemicals from a melting homogeneous snow pack

Organic chemicals are often released in peak concentrations from melting snow packs. A simple, mechanistic snowmelt model was developed to simulate and predict the elution of organic substances from melting, homogeneous snow, as influenced by chemical properties and snow pack characteristics. The model calculates stepwise the chemical transport along with the melt water flow in a multi-layered snow pack, based on chemical equilibrium partitioning between the individual bulk snow phases. The model succeeds in reproducing the elution behavior of several organic contaminants observed in previously conducted cold room experiments. The model aided in identifying four different types of enrichment of organic substances during snowmelt. Water soluble substances experience peak releases early during a melt period (type 1), whereas chemicals that strongly sorb to particulate matter (PM) or snow grain surfaces elute at the end of melting (type 2). Substances that are somewhat water soluble and at the same time have a high affinity for snow grain surfaces may exhibit increasing concentrations in the melt water (type 3). Finally, elution sequences involving peak loads both at the beginning and the end of melting are simulated for chemicals that are partially dissolved in the aqueous melt water phase and partially sorbed to PM (type 4). The extent of type 1 enrichment mainly depends on the snow depth, whereby deeper snow generates more pronounced concentration peaks. PM influences the elution behavior of organic chemicals strongly because of the very large natural variability in the type and amount of particles present in snow. Urban and road-side snow rich in PM can generate type 2 concentration peaks at the end of the melt period for even relatively water soluble substances. From a clean, melting snow pack typical for remote regions, even fairly hydrophobic chemicals can be released in type 1 mode while being almost completely dissolved in the aqueous melt water phase. The model provides a mechanistic understanding of the processes that lead to chemical peak releases during snowmelt.     

降雨特性对土质边坡失稳的影响

 通过降雨诱发土质边坡失稳的模型试验及已有研究成果来探讨降雨特性对边坡失稳的影响,并以此来选取出合适的雨量预警参数。研究结果表明：高强度降雨较易使边坡产生流滑破坏且冲蚀现象较为明显;而低雨强长历时的降雨较易使边坡深层土体的孔隙水压力增加,因此较易产生滑动型破坏且滑坡体的规模也较大;此外,降雨型滑坡存在“门槛累积雨量”。该研究成果揭示了降雨入渗对边坡稳定性的作用机制,并以此建议采用降雨强度与累积雨量作为雨量预警基准所需的参数,其中降雨强度参数可用时雨量表示,时雨量可用以衡量流滑型滑坡和泥石流灾害,而累积雨量则有助于评估滑动型滑坡的灾害。     

降雨滑坡多指标监测预警方法研究

降雨滑坡是发生最频繁,损失最严重的地质灾害,但如何实现其准确预警仍是目前所面临的主要挑战。而探究降雨滑坡的物理机制是开展预警的关键突破口。结合典型震后滑坡5个水文年的长时间序列实时监测数据和非饱和水-力耦合分析方法,开展都江堰银洞子沟滑坡现场实测数据的物理机制研究及长时间序列边坡稳定性分析。基于非饱和边坡稳定性分析方法,结合长时间序列实测大数据的实时计算和分析,提出基于降雨强度-概率(I-P)、饱和度、基质吸力、地表倾斜角度和稳定性实时计算分析的多参数指标预警方法体系,基于多参数预警体系和实时监测数据,分别于2017年8月和2018年6月在银洞子沟两次实现成功临灾预警,成功临灾预警实例验证了多参数阈值预警模型的可靠性和实用性,研究旨在为降雨型滑坡的准确预警提供新的参考和预警模式。     

土水特征曲线在滑坡预测中的应用性探讨

 通过模型试验与数值分析方法的结果对比,研究土水特征曲线中的主要增湿路径与主要减湿路径对降雨型滑坡预测的影响。研究结果表明,采用不同状态路径的土水特征曲线来进行降雨条件下边坡的有限元渗流分析,会得到不同的基质吸力和孔压变化趋势,进而影响强度折减有限元法的计算结果;而对于相同的基质吸力条件下,采用主要增湿路径所预测的非饱和渗透系数会低于主要减湿路径的预测值,使得主要减湿路径预测滑坡破坏时间较主要增湿路径快。此外,若边坡产生滑动型破坏,则实际滑坡发生时间在主要减湿路径与主要增湿路径的预测值之间。研究成果说明,采用作为界限的主要增湿和主要减湿路径作为土水特征曲线的滞后模型,对降雨型滑坡灾害的防灾预警具有一定的实用价值,可利用主要增湿与减湿路径预测滑坡发生的时间差,规划与建立合适的滑坡雨量预警基准。     

寒冷地区道路水泥构件病害机理分析

寒冷地区冬季道路积雪严重影响行车安全,为消除隐患,养护部门一般通过撒融雪剂或盐进行除冰。但是融雪剂或盐对水泥混凝土构件表面的腐蚀性很强,采取上述养护方式往往缩短了混凝土构件的使用寿命。作者通过室内低温抗冰冻、盐蚀、耐酸碱等试验和现场实施,研究了盐对混凝土构造物侵蚀的一般规律,本文介绍了水泥混凝土构件的腐蚀机理,其分析结果可为提出寒冷地区道路水泥混凝土构造物的养护方法及开发新的防腐蚀材料提供借鉴。     

Catastrophic landslides and debris flows in Thailand

Extremely intense rainfall of November 1988 in Southern Thailand triggered the worst natural disaster of the country. Widespread slope failures took place in the mountainous and hilly areas in the region that was previously considered to have low risk of landslides. Most slope failures occurred in the vicinity of the steep granitic Khao Luang Mountains where several villages along their rims were almost wiped out by catastrophic debris flows. This paper summarizes findings of a post-event study to determine the characteristics of the slope failures and their relation to geological setting, weathering characteristics, slope gradient, land use practice (vegetation cover) and rainfall intensity. Engineering characteristics of the weathered granite which was the predominant medium involved in the slope failures was also studied.     

库水位下降诱发的特大型顺层岩质滑坡变形特征与诱发机制

通过三峡库区旧县坪滑坡2016年6月~2018年8月的GNSS监测数据,采取多因素综合过程分析和定量分析手段,分析了滑坡变形在库水位7个不同变化过程下的响应特征和诱发机制。研究表明:(1)库水位下降是旧县坪滑坡位移变形的主要诱发因素,一般情况下,库水位下降速率越大,滑坡稳定性越差:库水位快速下降期间(>0.4 m/d)无强降雨时,滑坡仍可产生较强位移变形;库水位缓慢下降期间(<0.2m/d)无强降雨时,滑坡一般不产生明显变形。(2)强降雨在库水位下降期和145 m低水位运行期对滑坡位移变形可产生促进和一定的诱发作用,在库水位上升期(>0.5 m/d)则难以诱发滑坡产生变形。(3)对诱发滑坡变形来讲,降雨强度可以和库水位下降速率起相互补偿作用。即:通常情况下,库水位下降速率越大,诱发滑坡产生变形的降雨量可以更小。(4)库水位升–降转换期,渗透压力方向在一段时间内会逆库水位的下降变化而指向坡内,强降雨和库水位下降速率在一段时间内(数日至十余日)均不能诱发滑坡产生明显位移变形。(5)库水位高频低幅波动期间,总的渗透压力方向一般指向坡内,此阶段无论库水位下降速率多大,滑坡通常不会产生较强变形。该研究成果可对水库涉水型滑坡成因机制分析、监测预警判据研究、动态风险管理及应急抢险处置等提供重要借鉴。     

The Installation and Use of a Snow Pillow to Monitor Snow Water Equivalent

In February 1993, a snow pillow was installed at Widdibank Fell near Cow Green reservoir (in Upper Teesdale) to monitor snow water equivalent.
This paper describes existing snow-measurement techniques in the UK and the site-selection process and installation details for the snow pillow. Following a winter of more than 100 days with snow cover at the site, the success of the pillow in representing site and catchment snow conditions and in providing operationally useful snowmelt information for flood warning has been assessed.     

降雨诱发滑坡在长输管道监测预警中的应用

随着社会经济的快速发展,能源需求越来越大,而石油作为我国能源结构中最重要的一环,其安全传输及运行也越来越受到重视。我国地域辽阔、地质条件复杂,长输管道常需穿越西部山区等地质环境脆弱的区域,这些区域地质条件差,是地质灾害事件的高发区域。而在地质灾害的发生过程中,降雨往往是其中最重要的一个诱发因素,为了深入了解降雨与滑坡地质灾害之间的关系,本文归纳总结了国内外对于降雨诱发滑坡等地质灾害的机理,为降雨导致的滑坡地质灾害监测预警提供理论依据,并对现有的长输管道地质灾害提出合适的预警方法,最后总结了降雨诱发滑坡等地质灾害研究中尚存在的问题,对今后的研究重点和突破点进行展望。     

GIS-based three-dimensional slope stability analysis considering rainfall infiltration

Rainfall-induced landslides are a major cause of slope failure in mountainous areas. As rainfall begins to infiltrate a slope the wetting front advances into the soil and reduces its shear strength. Slope failures occur when the reduced shear strength becomes less than the resisting shear strength needed for equilibrium. These areas of instability are usually located near the ground surface where pore-water pressure changes rapidly during infiltration. The wetting front depth in a slope plays an important role in slope stability. In this study a well-known infiltration model, the Green and Ampt model, is integrated into three GIS-based three-dimensional limit equilibrium methods to assess the impact of rainfall on slope stability. This infiltration model can predict the depth of the wetting front during steady and unsteady rainfall. The applied three-dimensional methods are modified according to different positions of the wetting front to reflect the influence of rainfall on slope stability. This approach is capable of calculating safety factors corresponding to individual rainfall events and is also capable of predicting the corresponding failure time. The accuracy of the presented study has been verified by simulating the failure process of a real landslide triggered by a rainstorm.     

Research on the protection of expansive soil slopes under heavy rainfall by anchor-reinforced vegetation systems

An anchor-reinforced vegetation system (ARVS) is a new type of flexible slope protection system. ARVSs are composed of vegetation, anchors and high-performance turf reinforcement mats (HPTRMs) and can maintain the stability of expansive soil slopes while producing superior ecological effects. Through in situ comprehensive monitoring and comparative analyses, we systematically discuss the impact of heavy rainfall on ARVS-protected expansive soil slopes during the local wet season in Nanning. The results show that during the local wet season, the soil temperature and water content in vegetation-covered areas are lower than those in bare areas. The soil temperatures in different areas on the expansive soil slopes decrease with increasing depth. The ARVSs significantly affected the regulation of water transport and soil temperature, which limited soil deformation in different directions. The subsequent heavy rainfall would cause greater deformation of the expansive soil slope when less antecedent rainfall fell. Low-intensity and long-duration heavy rainfall events have greater negative impacts on expansive soil slopes than high-intensity and short-duration rainfall events. Under the action of severe rainfall-evaporation, expansive soil slopes protected by ARVSs can maintain stability.     

A rain-on-snow mixed flood forecast model and its application

Based on summarizing the rule of rainstorm and snowmelt mixed flood, the structure of rain-on-snow runoff-generation is discussed; and critical temperature is used to determine the form of precipitation and snowmelt factor, taking into account rainfall volume of snowmelt. A rain-on-snow flood forecast model is developed by combining LL-Ⅰdistributed hydrology model. The Kalangguer River, an internal river in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, is taken for example. It is indicated that the model has a higher precision of forecasting; its determinacy coefficient is greater than 0.80.