Planning and Planning Education under Conditions of Globalization

The flow of amenity-based migrants to fire-prone areas of the US Rocky Mountain West has brought increasing attention to wildfire hazard mitigation management. This paper attempts to build agent-based models which link natural amenity driven exurban growth to wildfire mitigation regimes to provide a framework for assessing cumulative effects of hazard mitigation policy under alternative policy structures. Three simulations were built to demonstrate how agent-based models (ABM) can be used to examine and compare people's choices of residential location in response to natural amenities and wildfire policies. This paper investigates the ways in which policy effects are incorporated dynamically into the land development decision-making process at an individual level in a case study area. Our results show that individual location choices with respect to wildfire risk are sensitive to wildfire mitigation policies.     

The Effect of Urban Containment and Mandatory Housing Elements on Racial Segregation in US Metropolitan Areas, 1990–2000

Abstract: Urban containment and state‐imposed mandatory housing elements in comprehensive land use plans attempt to reshape development patterns. Urban containment programs reign in the outward expansion of urban areas by restricting development of rural land outside urban containment boundaries and focusing the regional demand for urban development areas within them. This article assesses the effect of urban containment and mandatory housing elements on the percentage change in racial segregation change among US metropolitan areas during the 1990s. Ordinary least squares regression analysis suggests that while metropolitan areas with strong urban containment efforts saw a higher percentage decline in Anglo/African American residential segregation during the 1990s than metropolitan areas without such policies in place, urban containment had no statistically significant effect on segregation between Anglos and other races. Mandatory housing elements made no difference in racial segregation change between Anglos and any other race. Policy implications are posed.     

Exurban development influences woodland bird composition

One of the fastest growing types of land-use change is exurban development—low-density housing outside urban service boundaries. However, how individual species are responding to exurban development remains uncertain. We monitored birds for 5 years across three housing density levels in northern California oak woodlands. We compared community and species responses to exurban development (4–16 ha parcels) with suburban and undeveloped natural areas. We found that individual species and groups of species exhibited variable responses to exurban development. Some species and guilds were impacted by exurban development to the same extent as suburban development while others were less sensitive to this type of land use. For example, the proportion of the bird community composed of tree-and-shrub feeders was similar between exurban and natural areas, whereas proportions of temperate migrants showed significant reductions at both suburban and exurban sites. Similarly, Northern Flicker, Hutton's Vireo, and Orange-crowned Warbler were equally rare in exurban and suburban sites, making large, undeveloped parcels essential for their conservation. By explicitly measuring ecological changes associated with parcel size and density this research provides valuable information to land-use planners on the consequences of zoning for biodiversity conservation.     

Hotspots for Growth

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about the ability of Maryland's Priority Funding Area (PFA) program to control urban sprawl. We develop an economic-based land use conversion model to estimate if the PFA program steers urban growth to locations inside targeted growth areas within a fast-growing, exurban county. The results indicate that the size of an agricultural parcel, its distance from urban parcels, its proximity to highways, the productivity of agricultural land, and location in or outside PFAs influence the probability an agricultural parcel will be converted to urban use. We find that some of the parcels experiencing the greatest market pressure for development are located outside PFAs, and Maryland's incentive-based strategy is not completely effective at preventing sprawl.

Takeaway for practice: Careful design of the location of entrances and exits on and off highways, limitation of agricultural parcel fragmentation, and vigilant control of land use change in unproductive agricultural areas can limit sprawl. Our analysis highlights, yet again, the importance of communication between transportation and land use planners.

Research support: The research was supported by funding from the Harry R. Hughes Center for Agroecology, Inc.     

住房制度变迁驱动下的中国城市住区空间演化

自改革开放以来,中国的城市住区建设被纳入到改革发展的宏观制度环境当中,住房政策经历了一系列重要的调整和变革。受社会制度背景和住房政策影响,中国的住区空间发展也经历了福利制均质单位空间、市场化住区分异和保障制度影响下住区空间等不同阶段。而当前住房保障制度影响下的住区空间发展也面临着新的问题和矛盾。旨在通过对各个时期社会背景和政策制度作用下的城市住区空间回顾及对当前住区问题分析,探讨现阶段中国住区空间发展问题的解决思路。     

首都地区城乡建设用地空间格局与增长趋势——基于2000-2010年数据

新型城镇化过程中城乡建设用地的永续利用和合理扩张是社会各界关注的热点问题,也是空间规划改革的重要内容.现有的研究往往从城镇扩张、土地非农化等角度分析建设用地的整体演变规律,对于用地结构、空间特征的关注往往不够.考虑到我国特殊的城乡二元土地制度,城镇和农村建设用地扩张相对独立,需要将两者统筹起来,分析城镇、农村和工矿建设用地各自空间格局和增长趋势的特征.选取我国城镇化较为迅速的首都地区作为研究对象,以2000-2010年间的空间数据为基础,从城乡建设用地的规模分布、结构比例、增长趋势、内部结构变化等几个方面总结其演变规律,并从空间管理、内部转换、政策工具三个方面给出建议.     

City Compactness: Assessing the Influence of the Growth of Residential Land Use

In the urban sprawl paradigm, residential land use exhibits a more significant growth than other categories. Consequently, large proportions of the natural environment are converted to residential areas, particularly in tropical countries. Compact urban development is one of the most sustainable urban forms with environmental perspectives, such as rural development containment and natural environment preservation. However, no proper investigation of the relationship and influence of residential growth and city compactness is available. This study evaluated and forecasted the residential development of Kajang City in Malaysia based on compact development. First, the relationship between residential land use change and city compactness was evaluated. Second, residential growth was projected by utilizing the land transformation model (LTM) and the statistical-based weight of evidence (WoE) using various spatial parameters. Both models were evaluated with respect to observed land use and compactness maps. Results indicated that most of the newly developed residential areas were in zones where the degrees of compactness increase during certain periods. In addition, LTM performed better and provided a more accurate modeling of residential growth than the WoE. However, WoE provided clearer and more informative results than LTM in terms of functional relationships between dependent and independent variables related to city compactness.     

Land allocation for housing: A review of practice and possibilities in England

The typical conception of housing land release in England is of a non‐social, technical exercise which balance the various, often conflicting claims of rural conservation, of global housing needs and of non‐residential land uses. A rural housing needs policy, introduced in 1989, marks a potentially significant breach in the conventional wisdom that planning controls should only be concerned with the physical characteristics of buildings and of land. But the rural needs policy is unsuited to general application in its present form. If the intention is to use town planning to reduce the land cost of social housing, more consideration should be given to new forms of land taxation and public land ownership.     

Reprint of “An ‘unceasing war’ on land development on the urban fringe of Beijing: A case study of gated informal housing communities”

The existing literature about informal development in China's cities is dominated by studies of conventional informal housing in urban villages, while a new type of informal housing, gated informal housing communities, has rarely been studied. The paper aims to contribute to the existing literature by discussing why and how these gated informal housing communities were developed, looking at the case of Beijing. The results of the analysis show that institutional discrimination against rural areas with respect to land use rights, revenue redistribution, policymaking procedures and the hukou-related social welfare system the major drivers of development of informal communities. In particular, informal development is influenced by the ways land value is captured by, compensated for and allocated to the state government rather than rural villagers in the process of its transfer from rural to urban land. For future policy, more institutional innovation or reform is imperative in order to adequately deal with the emergence of gated informal housing communities. Institutionally inclusive land and housing policies, rather than intense top-down control, are needed in China.     

Expansion of the US wildland–urban interface

For at least two decades, expansion of low-density residential development at the wildland–urban interface has been widely recognized as a primary factor influencing the management of US national forests. We estimate the location, extent, and trends in expansion of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) in the continental United States. We mapped the WUI by determining the intersection of housing density classes computed from refined US Census data with a map of wildfire hazards based on broad forest types using definitions of WUI from the Federal Register. Our methods allowed us to provide a more spatially precise estimation of the WUI that better reflects development patterns of interest to forest land managers. We defined three wildfire hazard classes based on vegetation type. “High” severity applies to vegetation types in which stand-replacing fires dominate both historical and recent fire regimes, e.g., lodgepole pine forest. “Low” severity applies where fuels and climate foster mostly low-intensity fires, e.g., aspen-birch forest. “High (historically low or variable)” applies to vegetation types in which fires historically were of low or variable intensity, but recently have often burned at high intensity because of a century of fire exclusion, e.g., southwestern ponderosa pine forest. In 2000, the WUI that includes a 3.2 km community protection zone occupied 465,614 km², and contained over 12.5 million housing units. This is an expansion of over 52% from 1970, and by 2030 the WUI is likely to expand to at least 513,670 km² with the greatest expansion occurring in the intermountain west states. Roughly 89% of the WUI is privately owned land and about 65% of the WUI occurs in high or high (historically low or variable) severity fire regime classes.     

无锡地区安置房小户型研究

城市建设用地的扩张带来了城市外围用地性质的变更,大量农民从集体土地上的自建住宅搬迁到安置小区。文章针对在置换过程中,在农民安置住宅设计与使用中出现的Diverse question提出相应的设计变通策略,在符合国家政策、规范的前提下对安置户型的可适性、变通性、舒适性做些有益的研究。     

阳泉市边缘住区用地发展探讨

介绍了我国城市居住地建设的客观状况．就居住区向城市边缘拓展的原因进行了分析，结合阳泉市居住用地及住宅建设现状，提出了城市边缘住区规划设计的思路，以利于城市居住地健康发展。     

Interregional economic growth with transportation and residential distribution

The paper proposes a model of interregional economic growth model with travel time, housing, residential distribution, and amenity. The economy consists of multiple regions and each region consists of the CBD and the residential area (like in the standard Alonso model). All the markets are perfectly competitive. The paper demonstrates a way to integrate some important models in the literature in transportation research, economic growth theory, urban economics, and regional economics. The simulation results for a 3-region economy provide some interesting insights into national economic development, regional agglomeration, and urban configuration. We demonstrate, for instance, that when the technologically most advanced region improves its transportation conditions, the national output is increased, the advanced region attracts more people from the other two regions, the advanced region’s industrial and housing output levels are increased, the other two regions’ output levels are reduced, the land and housing rents and residential distribution in the advanced region are reduced near the CBD and increased far away from the CBD, and the land and housing rents and residential distribution in the other two regions are reduced over the entire residential areas.     

A Data-Driven Approach to Exploring Future Land Use and Transport Scenarios: The Online What If? Tool

ABSTRACT

In an era of rapid urbanization, there is a need for data-driven tools to guide long-term strategic planning. Online What If? (OWI) is a planning support system (PSS) that helps inform strategic planners about the impact of population growth and other socioeconomic factors will have on the future growth of cities. This research presents its application in metropolitan Perth with a two-part case study, demonstrating a first comprehensive application of the tool. First, OWI tests five scenarios for urban growth through the year 2050, allocating residential land use. Next, OWI alters land use allocations to align residential development with high frequency public transit, while also allocating commercial land use to support higher residential densities. Together, these data-driven scenarios inform city planners and policy makers in guiding the long-term, sustainable growth of Perth. The paper concludes with a review of OWI’s strengths, weaknesses and possibilities for continual development.     

高科技迷你住宅——解决都市工薪移民住房问题的探索

为了解决日益尖锐的都市住宅问题,笔者根据多年一、二级开发设计管理经验,多角度分析了现有都市住宅开发存在的问题,得出结论:按现有的开发模式无法解决都市工薪移民的住房问题。因此笔者受电子产业的启发,转变开发思路,针对性地引进了软件概念,并将住房主体和土地分离,以全新住舱和泊位的方式解决了困扰已久的住房问题,而且革命性的提出一种全新的居住理念,它将顺应人们新的生活需要并升华推动人们生活模式的改变。     

居住与工业用地比例变化及其引发的问题思考

本文对我国城市居住与工业用地比例进行了统计分析。近20年来我国城市居住与工业用地的面积比呈"倒V"型,曲线转折点为2001年。用地出让制度改革、政绩考核及现有的税收体制导致地方政府2002年之后的供地偏好转变,产生了低价、超量供应工业用地与高价、缩量供应居住用地的供地倾向,致使我国城市工业与居住用地供应出现结构性失衡。在对近10年全国居住用地比例、商品住宅供求关系、商品住宅平均价格回归分析和相关研究的基础上,笔者从实证角度验证了居住用地比例下降(即居住用地供应不足)在房价过快上涨过程中所起到的基础性作用。最后,论文针对城市建设用地的结构优化及居住用地供应保障问题提出了相关建议。     

Population changes in southern Manitoba: trends and policy implications 1971-1991

"This study analyzes the patterns and trends in rural and urban population change in Southern Manitoba [Canada] and the Winnipeg region between 1971 and 1991. Census data for five-year intervals is analyzed and compared and conclusions are drawn about major influences at work. The conclusions reached in this study are considered within the context of broader regional, national, and international trends of rural and urban population change. In addition, the issues, conflicts, and governmental policy surrounding exurban development are briefly addressed." (EXCERPT)     

天津市住宅市场发展的系统动力学模型仿真研究

为构建天津市健康、稳定的住宅市场,采用系统动力学理论,对天津市住宅市场发展进行系统建模,将天津市住宅市场系统划分为:人口与就业、经济与金融、土地供应、住宅供给与需求5 个子系统。根据天津市年鉴及天津市国土资源与房屋管理局等统计数据,分析各子系统间影响机理,建立系统反馈回路,从而构建城市住宅系统动力学仿真模型,模拟近5 年天津市住宅市场发展现状,并预测天津市住宅市场未来10 年发展走势,结合预测住宅市场发展,提出人口、就业及土地调控等政策性建议。     

农村住宅户型研究——以我国北方农村为模型

该文以北方农村住宅为研究对象探讨农村住宅户型的更新与发展,在城乡统筹发展的时代背景下,针对农业生产和农村生活特性,从用地、空间与功能等方面深入分析农村住宅户型设计要点,提出卧室、餐厨房、工作间等适应当前农村居住需求的功能块,并探讨院落空间的多种可能性与乡村养老的新概念。