PPP项目风险分配基本框架优化研究

结合PPP政策和PPP项目实际操作经验,分析PPP项目风险分配现有问题,在完善风险承担主体、风险分配相关原则、提出风险分配机制的初步方案的基础上,优化PPP项目风险分配基本框架,供同业参考。     

基础设施PPP项目风险分配研究

结合山东省东营市东营区人民医院外科病房楼建设的PPP项目实例,识别其风险因素为政府层面风险、市场层面风险、项目层面风险、不可抗力风险四个层面。将PPP项目分配的原则归结为项目风险最优分配原则、项目风险与收益对等原则、项目风险上限原则三项基本原则。制定PPP项目分配的流程,并对该医院外科病房楼建设的PPP项目进行了风险初步分配。     

PPP项目的风险管理问题及政策建议

近年来,PPP模式的发展一直在"重量"的方向上,PPP中隐匿的风险亟需关注。本文首先通过分析PPP模式,总结发展PPP项目的现实意义。其次,分层面梳理PPP项目中的风险,提出PPP项目的风险管理问题并进行相应的分析。最后,在防范地方政府隐性债务的背景下,针对相关问题提出防范化解PPP项目风险的思路和政策建议。     

IPD模式下的PPP项目风险分配

在我国现阶段公共基础设施建设中,PPP模式引起了广泛的关注,PPP项目风险分配问题成为了各方研究的焦点。本文通过对现有关于PPP项目风险分配研究进行分析,尝试找出PPP项目风险分配体系中存在的问题,并对PPP项目风险的特点进行了总结和归纳。针对PPP项目风险分配中现存的问题,本文尝试将IPD模式引入到PPP项目中,从组织模式、合同两个角度对基于IPD模式的PPP项目进行风险分配研究,同时运用社会网络分析法(SNA)对IPD模式应用于PPP项目的效果进行了分析,指出IPD模式应用于PPP项目在组织关系、合同环境、操作体系上的优势,证明了IPD模式可以有效解决PPP项目在风险分配中存在的问题,为两者的进一步结合打下了基础。     

基于PPP项目的风险管理研究

本文对PPP模式相关内容进行了梳理,在此基础上,系统的探讨了基于 PPP 项目的风险问题。针对项目不同特征的基础上,对 PPP 项目风险识别的相关主要风险集合,对 PPP 项目的风险因素进行实质性分类划分,以便项目参与方对项目风险进行有效控制。     

PPP项目资源和风险分配优化研究 ——基于资源和风险分配的博弈关系

资源分配与优化贯穿PPP项目生命周期,影响到PPP项目风险分配和风险控制效率,进而决定PPP项目的成败。项目实际实施过程中,政府和社会资本都存在转移风险的现象,合理的聚集、分配、优化资源和风险已经成为PPP模式理论及实践的关键问题。在确定PPP项目资源分配主体的基础上,构建资源和风险分配的博弈模型,探讨资源配置优化和风险分配优化的逻辑关系以及其对PPP项目成功的重要作用机理,并以郑州市白庙水厂PPP项目为例进行验证,期望为PPP项目资源和风险分配优化提供参考。     

基于故障树模型的城市地下综合管廊应用PPP模式风险评价

城市地下综合管廊工程项目应用PPP模式当前在国内已经开始大力推广和普及,各地区经济发展水平不一,项目推进程度以及社会资本参与项目的积极性也有所差别。为保障城市地下综合管廊工程项目应用PPP模式顺利开展,其项目风险的影响不可忽视。借助故障树模型分析影响综合管廊工程项目应用PPP模式风险的因素,归纳筛选对于PPP模式风险产生的基本事件;通过确定对于基本事件关联度的大小,确定在全生命周期阶段需要重视的基本事件,对于基本事件的关联度大小进行排序判断得到入廊需求及收益、融资风险、地方政府财政能力、法律体系不健全、技术不完备、土地征拆问题、政府信用等7个对项目风险影响较大的因素。考虑到不同地区经济发展实力不同,PPP项目的适应性存在差异,通过改进关联度进行实证分析,验证模型的科学性和实用性,为城市地下综合管廊工程项目应用PPP模式风险管理提供一定指导。     

PPP项目不可预见的风险应对机制及分配

在工程项目施工过程中,PPP模式是一种广泛使用的融资模式,政府公共项目利用PPP模式可以更好地对社会资金进行筹集,并减轻财政和资金方面的压力。但由于PPP项目运营周期长、投入资金大,涉及到的利益比较多,使项目施工过程中存在比较多的不可预见风险。本文主要对PPP项目不可预见风险进行分析,并针对性地提出PPP风险分配方案项目的管理重点,使PPP项目风险控制在最小范围内。     

基于网络层次分析法（ANP）的PPP项目风险评价研究

通过问卷调查建立包括宏观、中观、微观三个层次的PPP项目风险评价指标体系。针对PPP项目风险指标之间的相互影响关系,采用网络层次分析法（ANP）进行风险评价研究。以某东南亚国家PPP水电站项目为例,利用ANP方法得到各风险因素的相对权重和排序,并对主要风险因素进行分析评价。     

公共文化类PPP项目风险传染研究 ——以柳州市柳东新区文化广场项目为例

基于社会网络分析(Social Network Analysis,SNA)方法,建立公共文化类PPP项目风险传染网络模型,探究公共文化类PPP项目中政府方和社会资本方需承担的风险以及风险间的相关关系。然后通过问卷调研,量化风险间关系强度,经网络指标计算揭示出传染模型中关键风险要素及其在网络的角色,并据此提出三项核心的风险传染防范措施。     

A critical review of the application of TCE in the interpretation of risk allocation in PPP contracts

Along with the rise of public–private partnerships (PPPs) as a mainstream procurement system, we have seen a growing interest in studies of risk allocation in these projects. One of the serious academic endeavours is to apply both transaction cost economics (TCE) and the resource-based view (RBV) to explain risk allocation patterns found in PPP projects. The existing literature along these lines is deficient in three aspects: inappropriate choice of unit of analysis; poor specification of governance structure; and misinterpretation of asset specificity. A way for improvement is to analyse risk allocation in the context of PPP procurement in its entirety.     

Risk criticality and allocation in privatised water supply projects in Indonesia

Public–private-partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects typically involve a plethora of risks. Given that many risks which are traditionally borne by the government get transferred to the private sector, careful risk allocation is considered to be the key to successful PPP projects. This paper focuses on the current risk allocation practice within Indonesia’s water supply projects. The paper captures, presents and discusses the perceptions of both regulators and operators in the context of project risk criticality and allocation. Both parties consider non-availability of raw water is of paramount concern. However, survey findings highlight low-to-moderate levels of intra-group and inter-group agreement regarding the allocation of specific project risk factors. Thus, asserting that the issue of optimal risk allocation remains elusive.     

兼顾原则性与灵活性的PPP 项目风险分担

PPP 模式在“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施建设中愈发受到青睐,而复杂的国际形势致使其风险分担愈发重要。相关文件提出PPP 项目的风险分担原则,以政治不可抗力为例,对其进行验证。通过文件和文献分析对政治不可抗力进行界定并识别出10 个政治不可抗力事件,在此基础上分级得出7 个关键事件;在对合理的风险分担对PPP 项目的重要性进行分析的基础上,通过对比分析关键事件的风险分担结果,发现多数事件的风险分担不一致,在此基础上得出风险分担应当在遵循风险分配优化、风险收益对等和风险可控等基本原则的基础上,兼顾灵活性的原则。     

试论PPP项目的风险分配原则和框架

PPP项目融资模式在世界范围内已经得到广泛的应用,但在实际的应用中公共部门和私人部门往往就PPP项目中风险的分配难以达成一致,大大延长了双方谈判的时间和增加了交易成本.本文分析了影响PPP项目风险分配的因素,提出了更为合理的风险分配原则,并设计了相应的风险分配框架,对指导公共部门和私人部门谈判PPP项目具有实际指导作用.     

基于公平偏好理论的PPP项目收益风险分配机制研究

PPP 模式对于社会资本参与基础设施建设项目具有积极的推动作用。然而,由于基础设施建设周期长、回报低,社会投资方将面临较高的收益风险,因此,我国大部分 PPP 项目的社会资本方为国企或国企与民企的联营体,纯粹的私人资本参与 PPP 项目的积极性并不高。为了激发私人资本参与基础设施项目建设的投资热情,当政府与不同投资方合作时,有必要基于项目参与方的公平偏好程度设置相应风险分配机制,一方面降低私人资本投资方所面临的收益风险,另一方面改变政府承担项目付费的现状,实现风险的合理分配。基于委托代理理论模拟项目收益风险分配机制,在考察投资方公平偏好的前提下,对传统的收益函数进行了调整,构建了基于公平偏好理论的 PPP 项目收益风险分配模型。通过数据分析得出,社会效益会随着投资方公平偏好的增大而增加,投资方承担风险比例亦与其公平偏好正相关     

Public private partnership projects in Singapore: Factors,critical risks and preferred risk allocation from the perspective of contractors

Public private partnership (PPP) procurement was introduced into Singapore in 2003, and 10 PPP projects were successfully completed and have been in operation. This study aims to examine the critical success factors as well as the relative importance of positive and negative factors influencing the attractiveness of PPP projects in Singapore, and to identify the critical risk factors and preferred risk allocations for PPP projects in Singapore. The questionnaire survey results indicated that negative factors were more affirmative than the positive factors, and that 23 risk factors had significant criticalities. Eight risks would be preferably allocated to the public sector while 19 risks could be assigned to the private sector. 11 risks were preferred to be shared by both parties and the allocation of four risks depended on project circumstances. The findings of this study provide valuable information for organizations that intend to participate in PPP projects in Singapore.     

Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.     

我国成功PPP 项目特征分析:基于多案例的研究

为从已实施的成功 PPP 项目中总结经验,通过文献调研和专家访谈建立了 PPP 项目成功标准清单,收集了财政部PPP 中心的 40 个国家示范项目,根据成功标准清单对这些项目进行筛选,从中识别出 29 个成功 PPP 项目作为案例进行深入分析,得到了成功 PPP 项目的 6 个共性特征,即强大的社会资本、合理的风险分担机制、竞争透明的采购程序、合理的定价机制、有力的政府支持、有效的政府监管,据此对 PPP 的推广和 PPP 项目的实施提出了建议。     

PPP 项目关系管理的关键成功因素

关系的质量是建设工程项目成败的关键因素之一。鉴于 PPP（公私合作关系）模式内生的项目复杂性和特殊性特征,探索 PPP 项目中关系管理的关键成功因素显得十分必要。通过文献综述和专家访谈方法获取 PPP 项目关系管理的 9 个关键成功因素,并形成调查问卷;在问卷调查的基础上,通过数据分析归纳我国 PPP 项目关系管理的现状与关键成功因素。问卷数据分析发现,高层管理者的承诺和支持、相互信任、风险的公平分担、问题/冲突解决的能力是 PPP 项目关系管理最重要的关键成功因素。此外,公共部门和私人部门对大多数关键成功因素的重要性认识不存在显著性差异。     

Public–private partnership projects in Greece: risk ranking and preferred risk allocation

Project participants, through experience, have an initial perception and predisposition towards risk and the types of risks they are willing and able to undertake. This is equally true for parties interested in public–private partnership (PPP) projects. These initial positions have been registered for the major Greek PPP market stakeholders potentially involved in a PPP arrangement through a survey covering all candidate construction companies, interested financing institutes and a number of public sector entities to be involved in PPPs. Findings revealed that stakeholders were, for the majority of risks identified, in agreement as to preferred risk allocation. Risk allocation preferences for construction companies were compared with similar findings for the UK, a mature PPP market, indicating a possible learning/maturing process based on the particular country background. Conclusions add to other surveys carried out on the subject and should enable public sector clients to establish a more efficient framework for risk allocation, thus reducing negotiations prior to contract award and minimizing the risk of poor risk distribution.