中国经济持续增长的能源保障实证计量分析

利用1978～2006年的年度宏观经济面板数据,根据协整分析及Granger因果关系检验,研究了中国的能源消费总量与国内生产总值之间的关系,进而对三大产业的增长与消费进行检验分析。实证表明,我国能源消费总量与GDP之间存在协整关系．两者具有双向因果关系,第二产业能源消费对经济增长有较大的促进作用。利用误差修正模型对能源需求的短期行为进行了解释。     

基于协整和ECM的中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系研究

该研究首先调查了1980～2010年间中国经济增长、能源消费与碳排放的长期均衡、短期动态调整和格兰杰因果关系.协整检验结果表明经济增长、能源消费与碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系.格兰杰因果检验结果表明能源消费与碳排放具有双向格兰杰因果关系,经济增长是能源消费的格兰杰原因,但能源消费与碳排放均不是经济增长的格兰杰原因.能源消费的短期波动会受到GDP和碳排放短期波动的影响.并根据研究结果,提出了节能减排的相关建议.     

基于协整理论的电力投资分析与研究

以我国为例,基于1978～2008年的相关数据,采用EVIEWS软件分析了电力投资与电力消费、经济增长之间关系,并应用单位根检验、Granger因果分析和Johansen检验等协整分析方法实证研究了这三者之间关系,建立了误差修正模型寻求长期均衡与短期波动关系.结果表明,该方法有效,电力消费为电力投资的单向Granger原因,电力投资、电力消费与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,电力消费和经济增长将引起投资的同方向变动.     

江西省能源对经济发展支撑作用分析

以江西省1985～2008年能源消费和GDP历史数据为样本,用协整理论论证了能源消费和GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;通过Granger因果性检验法分析了能源消费和经济发展之间的相互影响;根据分析结果,提出了政策建议。     

中国能源消费和经济增长关系实证研究

在中国经济发展过程中,经济增长和能源消费呈现出紧密的联系。国内外研究能源消费和经济增长的模型很多,其中协整关系和因果关系研究方法成为国内外研究能源消费与经济增长的主流方法和重要工具,本文运用1978～2009年能源消费和国内生产总值的数据,运用协整分析和Granger因果关系检验方法分析探寻能源消费和经济增长之间的相互关系。认为能源消费和国内生产总值存在协整关系,能源消费对国内生产总值存在单向Granger因果关系。因此能源供应短缺将会影响我国经济增长的速度,提高能源利用效率才是关键。     

冀中南地区经济发展与能源消费及碳排放关系研究

对冀中南地区经济增长、能源消费和碳排放的现状进行了分析;采用Eviews5软件对能源消费与经济增长的关系进行协整验证和Granger因果关系验证,得出二者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;建立GM(1,1)预测模型,预测结果表明,相比2010年,"十二五"期间,冀中南地区单位GDP碳排放量以平均每年5.75%的速度下降。     

大数据驱动的我国新能源汽车需求分析

文章基于网络搜索大数据,以新能源汽车为例,结合统计学和计量经济学理论与方法,利用斯皮尔曼相关系数、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系,检验分析了搜索指数与新能源汽车实际需求之间的关系。以新能源汽车历史销量作为单一变量建立自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA),并与加入了搜索指数的向量自回归模型(VAR)进行比较。结果表明,加入搜索指数的预测模型相较传统的预测模型,在样本期内和样本期外的预测精度分别提高了11.69%和14.95%。该模型只需利用前4个月的新能源汽车销售数据和网络搜索大数据,就能够准确地预测下一个月的需求,在提高预测时效性的同时,也为个人、企业和政府决策提供可靠的依据。     

新时代背景下电力投资的协整模型分析

在新时代背景下,中国经济发展进入新阶段,全社会用电量与GDP增速之间的关系出现了新变化,在部分年份2者差异尤为严重。以上海市为例,基于2001～2016年的统计资料,利用Eviews软件对电力投资与电力消费协整分析。结果表明,该方法是有效的,电力消费为电力投资的单向Granger原因,电力投资、电力消费之间具有长期均衡关系,电力消费的增加会导致电力投资的同方向变动。     

河南省能源消费与经济增长关系研究

以河南省为例,基于能源、资本、劳动力三要素的C-D生产函数构建了能源消费与经济增长间关系模型,并采用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,分析了能源消费对GDP的影响.结果表明,河南省的能源消费与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,且存在单向格兰杰因果关系,即能源消费导致经济增长,但对经济增长影响最大的是劳动力水平的提高.     

北京电力能源消费与人口因素的协整性研究

通过对北京市电力能源消费和常住人口时间序列数据的平稳性检验,得出二者都属于非平稳序列和二阶单整序列。经过协整性检验和Granger因果关系检验,得出北京市电力能源消费和常住人口数据之间存在协整性关系,得出了城市常住人口数据对于北京市电力能源消费具有单向因果关系的结论,进而可应用人口增长率预测能源电力未来需求。     

我国电力需求影响因素实证分析

应用协整分析方法,建立了我国电力需求的长期均衡方程和短期误差修正模型,并进行G ranger因果检验,依据此模型与检验能较好地解释我国电力需求与国内生产总值、电价水平、经济结构、人口之间存在的长期均衡关系及短期变动的影响因素。     

Relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth of Guangdong Province in China

Guangdong is a province with the most electricity consumption (EC) and the fastest economic growth in China. However, there has long been a contradiction between electricity supply and demand in Guangdong and this trend may exist for a long time in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the research on the relationship between EC and economic growth of Guangdong is of very important practical significance to the formulation of relevant policy. In this paper, the econometrics method of granger causality test and co-integration test is used to analyze the relationship between EC and economic growth of Guangdong from 1978 to 2010. The results indicate that there is unidirectional causality between the economic growth and the EC, and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross industrial output value (GIOV) is the impetus to promote the growth of installedβcapacity (ICAP) and the EC. Therefore, the appropriate restraint of excessive growth of power industry will not necessarily slow down economic growth. There has been a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the EC and the economic growth. When the GDP and GIOV grows 1 unit respectively, the EC of Guangdong province will increase 0.97 and 0.64 unit respectively. The long-term marginal utility of the EC is more than 1.     

Forecast of electricity consumption and economic growth in Taiwan by state space modeling

This paper investigates the Granger causality between electricity consumption (EL) and economic growth for Taiwan during 1980–2007 using the cointegration and error-correction models. The results indicate that EL and real GDP are cointegrated, and that there is unidirectional short and long run Granger causality from economic growth to EL but not vice versa. Considering cointegrated property, this study proposes a new error-correction state space model (ECSTSP) with the error-correction term (ECT) in its state vector to forecast both EL and real GDP simultaneously, whereas the ECM is not in the state vector of classical state space model (STSP). The out-of-sample forecasting ability of the ECSTSP is compared with STSP and SARIMA models using six forecasting horizons from 1-year to 6-year. The results suggest that all of the models have strong forecasting performance with MAPE less than 5.4%, but the ECSTSPs have the smallest average values of MAPEs for both EL and GDP, which are 2.50% and 1.74%, respectively. For short-term predictions, SARIMA models are as good as STSP or ECSTSP ones. For long-term prediction, ECSTSP is the best model, because the cointegration relationship between real GDP and EL is taken into account in this model.     

The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries

The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 newly industrializing and developing Asian countries using both single data sets and panel data procedures. The empirical results from single data set indicate that the causality directions in the 10 Asian countries are mixed while there is a uni-directional short-run causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption and a bi-directional long-run causality between electricity consumption and economic growth if the panel data procedure is implemented. These empirical findings imply that electricity conservation policies through both rationalizing the electricity supply efficiency improvement to avoid the wastage of electricity and managing demand side to reduce the electricity consumption without affecting the end-user benefits could be initiated without adverse effect on economic growth. The findings on the long-run relationship indicate that a sufficiently large supply of electricity can ensure that a higher level of economic growth.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea

This paper investigates the short- and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Korea by using the co-integration and error-correction models. It employs annual data covering the period 1970–2002. The overall results show that there exists bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption.     

Environmental degradation,economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia

This paper tests for the short and long-run relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and energy consumption, using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) by employing both the aggregated and disaggregated energy consumption data in Malaysia for the period 1980–2009. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology and Johansen–Juselius maximum likelihood approach were used to test the cointegration relationship; and the Granger causality test, based on the vector error correction model (VECM), to test for causality. The study does not support an inverted U-shaped relationship (EKC) when aggregated energy consumption data was used. When data was disaggregated based on different energy sources such as oil, coal, gas and electricity, the study does show evidences of the EKC hypothesis. The long-run Granger causality test shows that there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and CO₂ emissions, with coal, gas, electricity and oil consumption. This suggests that decreasing energy consumption such as coal, gas, electricity and oil appears to be an effective way to control CO₂ emissions but simultaneously will hinder economic growth. Thus suitable policies related to the efficient consumption of energy resources and consumption of renewable sources are required.     

Economic growth and electricity consumption in Cote d'Ivoire: Evidence from time series analysis

This paper examines the causal relationship between the electric power industry and the economic growth of Cote d'Ivoire. Using the data from 1971 to 2008, a test was conducted for the cointegration and Granger causality within an error correction model. Results from these tests reveal a bidirectional causality between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP. A unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to industry value added appears in the short run. Economic growth is found to have great effects on electricity consumption and a reverse causality from electricity to economic growth may also appear. In the long run, there is a unidirectional causality between electricity and both GDP and industry value added. From these findings, we conclude that the country will be energy dependent in the long run and must therefore secure the production network from shortfalls to ensure a sustainable development path. Accordingly, government should adopt policies aimed at increasing the investment in the sector by stepping up electricity production from existing and new energy sources.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth: Bounds and causality analyses of OPEC members

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for OPEC members. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for all OPEC members. Causality results suggest that economic growth is dependent on electricity consumption in five countries, less dependent in three countries, and independent in three countries. Because these countries do not necessarily share similar political and economic traits, no single universal policy implication can be inferred from the results. The disparities across these causality results, therefore, stress the importance of formulating causality explanations while taking into account the particularities of individual countries rather than blindly applying the conventional interpretations.     

Residential and non-residential electricity dynamics

This paper uses U.S. panel data to instrument and examine the dynamics of electricity within the world market while separating between both residential and non-residential electricity consumptions during the time period of 1990–2014. To better assess the true differences within each causal relationship, all panel data has been separated into one Full panel and three subpanels of High, Middle, and Low income. The empirical framework used consists of various tests that identify the existence of cross-sectional dependency, a Pesaran panel unit root test, a Westerlund panel cointegration test, and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin method of the Granger causality test. Furthermore, this paper utilizes DOLS to estimate any long-run elastic relations between real GDP and residential or non-residential electricity consumption. Based on the results, this paper determines that no long-run relationship exists between non-residential electricity consumption and economic growth throughout and that the relationship between residential electricity consumption and economic growth possesses unit elastic behavior in the long run. Other findings throughout imply causality moves from economic growth in the direction of residential electricity consumption for all panels.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971–2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector.