Natural gas demand in Turkey

On average, energy demand of Turkey is mounting by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world. Among primary energy sources, natural gas is the fastest growing one in Turkey. Gas consumption started at 0.5 bcm (billion cubic meters) in 1987 and reached approximately 35 bcm in 2007. Turkish natural gas usage is projected to further increase remarkably in coming years. The present paper focuses the characteristics of this demand and estimates short and long-run price and income elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand in Turkey. The future growth in this demand is also forecasted using an ARIMA modelling and the results are compared with official projections. The paper reveals that natural gas demand elasticities are quite low, meaning that consumers do not respond possible abusive price increases by decreasing their demand or substituting natural gas with other energy sources. Since consumers are prone to monopoly abuse by incumbent, there is a need for market regulation in Turkish natural gas market. Based on forecasts obtained, it is clear that the current official projections do not over/under-estimate natural gas demand although past official projections highly overestimated it.     

Analysis of the lithuanian final energy consumption with respect to economic changes

The development of energy consumption in Lithuania is investigated on the basis of realistic economic scenarios. The aim is to provide reasonable projections of final energy consumption for selected demand sectors. The main parameters determining consumption are the gross national product (GNP) and the real price for energy. The influences of price level and economic activity during preceding periods are evaluated by using multiple regressions with a quasi-dynamic model. Insofar as these mechanisms cannot be detected for Lithuania, experiences with other former centrally-planned economies, which have already turned into kinds of market economies, are applied to make realistic projections for the transitory period. The underlying scenarios for the GNP and price developments are taken from official Lithuanian projections, but they have been adjusted to allow for the most recent development. The results of the quasi-dynamic model are compared with the official final energy-demand projections to provide policy advice for a proper restructuring of the energy system.     

Analysis of the Lithuanian final energy consumption using fuzzy sets

In the paper, the development of final energy consumption in Lithuania, on the basis of realistic economic scenarios, is investigated. The main parameters influencing the energy consumption are the gross national product (GNP) and the wholesale price of energy. Owing to the uncertainties in former socialist economies, these parameters are described as ‘fuzzy sets.’ The theory of fuzzy sets is used to study the influences that the prices of preceding periods have on the actual final energy consumption, with a quasidynamic model. In so far as this mechanism cannot be ascertained for Lithuania, experiences with other former centrally planned economies, which have already turned into a kind of market economy, are applied to give realistic projections for the transitory period. The underlying scenarios for the GNP and price developments are taken from official Lithuanian projections. The results of the fuzzy quasidynamic model are compared with the official final energy demand projections, to provide policy advice for a proper restructuring of the energy system.     

科学分析和处理煤与电的关系

煤与电既具有正相关性,也具有负相关性,煤电价格并轨对于煤炭和电力双方都是"双刃剑",并没有从根本上解决"煤电博弈"问题,推进电价市场化改革才是理顺煤炭与煤电企业关系的治本之策。电价市场化改革,短期需要完善煤电联动机制,长期应该形成真正由供需关系决定电价的机制。为此,煤炭和煤电企业应该认清波动规律,建立双赢理念,谋签长远合同,并通过互相参股,建立深层战略合作。     

Management of fluctuations in wind power and CHP comparing two possible Danish strategies

Both CHP (combined heat and power production) and wind power are important elements of Danish energy policy. Today, approximately 50% of both the Danish electricity and heat demand are produced in CHP and more than 15% of the electricity demand is produced by wind turbines. Both technologies are essential for the implementation of Danish climate change response objectives, and both technologies are intended for further expansion in the coming decade. Meanwhile, the integration of CHP and wind power is subject to fluctuations in electricity production. Wind turbines depend on the wind, and CHP depends on the heat demand. This article discusses and analyses two different national strategies for solving this problem. One strategy, which is the current official government policy known as the export strategy, proposes to take advantage of the Nordic and European markets for selling and buying electricity. In this case, surplus electricity from wind power and CHP simply will be sold to neighbouring countries. Another strategy, the self-supply strategy, runs the CHP units to meet both demand and the fluctuations in the wind scheduling. In this case, investments in heat storages are necessary and heat pumps have to be added to the CHP units. Based on official Danish energy policy and energy plans, this article quantifies the problem for the year 2015 in terms of the amount of surplus electricity, and investments in heat pumps, etc. needed to solve the problem are calculated. Based on these results between the two different strategies, the conclusion is that the self-supply strategy is recommended over the official export strategy.     

Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies.     

Consumers in the green electricity market in Finland

“Green” electricity, i.e. electricity produced from environmentally less harmful sources and marketed as such, has been available to Finnish households since 1998, but the demand for it has remained low. In this paper we discuss the barriers identified by consumers to purchasing green electricity and contrast these with the interpretation energy sector actors give to consumer passivity. The empirical material consists of thematic interviews. Energy policy actors often assume that consumers’ passivity signifies their lack of interest or low environmental consciousness. This results partly from the failure to differentiate between the roles of consumer and citizen. The interpretation the energy sector actors give to consumer passivity and the role they assign to consumers affect the direction of green electricity policy. We argue that consumers need more information on both the environmental impact of different electricity products and in particular about the electricity supply and electricity contracts in a liberalised electricity market if they are to become active in the market.     

Dynamic simulation model of a coal thermoelectric plant with a flue gas desulphurisation system

In this paper a Dynamic Simulation Model has been used to present the likely responses of the electricity industries’ latest perturbations such as: changes in environmental regulations, international fuel market evolution, restriction on fuel supply and increase on fuel prices, liberalisation of the European Electricity Market, and the results of applying energy policies and official tools such as taxes and emission allowances.

The case under study refers to the Teruel Power Plant, built after the 1970s oil crisis to ensure national electricity supply; burning domestically produced coal in order to ensure local mining activity. The Teruel Power Plant has made relevant investments in order to meet emission limits, such as a Flue Gas Desulphurisation Plant. The economic viability of the power stations has to be analysed after environmental costs have been internalised.

A system is defined that studies the coal-firing Electric Power Plant selling energy to the free electricity market, whenever the generation cost is competitive. A Dynamic Simulation Model would appear to be an accurate tool to optimise power station management within different frameworks.     

Nuclear power in open energy markets: A case study of Turkey

For many decades, like many developed countries, Turkey has controlled her electricity sector as a state-owned monopoly. However, faced with rapid electricity demand growth, Turkey started to consider nuclear option. The present paper aims at evaluating both the present status of nuclear power in general and its implications for Turkish energy market in particular. After examining existing nuclear power technology and providing a brief overview of nuclear power economics; it focuses on the repercussions of nuclear power for Turkish energy market. The paper concludes that, in the short run, it may be considered to keep nuclear power within Turkish energy mix because it is an important carbon-free source of power that can potentially make a significant contribution to both Turkey's future electricity supply and efforts to strengthen Turkey's security of supply. However, in the long term, nuclear power should be retained in Turkey only if it has a lower cost than competing technologies.     

Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand reduces also in cases when coal supply curve shifts rightwards such as under coal reforms and coal-by-wire scenarios. Local environmental (SO₂ emissions) control promotes end of pipe solutions flue gas de-sulfurisation (FGD) initially, though in the longer term mitigation happens by fuel substitution (coal by gas) and introduction of clean coal technologies integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).     

Regulatory reform of the electricity industry in Japan: What is the next step of deregulation?

In Japan, competitive bidding for new generating capacity (IPPs) is in progress since 1996. Retail competition was introduced for large customers (contract demand over 2 MW) after March 2000. Although the liberalization is limited in part by the fact that the retail power market has only about 30% share of total electricity demand, the eligible customers now have a choice among the nine major utilities and ten new entrants. Since November 2001, the electricity industry committee has been discussing the next step of liberalization, including the opening of the market for medium-size industrial and commercial high voltage (6 kV) customers from 2004 and 2005 on. This paper presents the experiences so far acquired and the technical issues for further deregulation. The process includes the creation of nationwide power exchange and of a neutral organization to coordinate the transmission system by 2005. The paper deals with the characteristics of the new regulatory reform of the electricity supply industry in Japan during the period of 2003–2007. We show that it is important to understand the complexity of market behavior and design the market reform carefully.     

Promotion of renewable energy in a liberalised energy market

Liberalisation of energy markets has been progressing among OECD countries since the early nineties. In Europe this trend was accelerated by the decision in December 1996 by the EU Council of Ministers to adopt a new EU directive on liberalisation of the electricity market. This decision was based on the assumption that a liberalised market with commercial competition would lead to higher efficiency and lower consumer prices. Most EU governments have accepted the new EU directive based on these commercial arguments. Denmark has, however, been in a different situation because its energy policy is based primarily on environmental considerations. Danish energy policy involves government promotion of energy conservation and of systems based on renewable energy sources. This type of policy may in some instances conflict with the principles of the unregulated commercial market.The official Danish target is that 35% of energy demand should be covered by renewables by year 2030. The present paper analyzes the problems and possibilities of meeting this target taking into account the rules of the new EU directive on liberalisation.     

High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations.     

Evaluating potential policies for the UK perennial energy crop market to achieve carbon abatement and deliver a source of low carbon electricity

The electricity infrastructure in many developed countries requires significant investment to meet ambitious carbon emissions reduction targets, and to bridge the gap between future supply and demand. Perennial energy crops have the potential to deliver electricity generation capacity while reducing carbon emissions, leading to polices supporting the adoption of these crops. In the UK, for example, support has been in place over the past decade, although uptake and the market development have so far been relatively modest. This paper combines biophysical and socio-economic process representations within an agent-based model (ABM), to offer insights into the dynamics of the development of the perennial energy crop market. Against a changing policy landscape, several potential policy scenarios are developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the market in providing a source of low carbon renewable electricity, and to achieve carbon emissions abatement. The results demonstrate the key role of both energy and agricultural policies in stimulating the rate and level of uptake; consequently influencing the cost-effectiveness of these measures. The UK example shows that energy crops have the potential to deliver significant emissions abatement (up to 24 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent year⁻¹, 4% of 2013 UK total emissions), and renewable electricity (up to 29 TWh year⁻¹, 8% of UK electricity or 3% of primary energy demand), but a holistic assessment of related policies is needed to ensure that support is cost-effective. However, recent policy developments suggest that domestically grown perennial energy crops will only play a niche role (<0.2%) of the UK energy balance.     

Solar PV electricity and market characteristics: two Canadian case-studies

To determine whether solar electricity (that is, electricity generated by photovoltaics) is, on an average, more valuable—in market terms—than the electricity generated in power systems as a whole, this article investigates the extent to which solar resource availability in two Canadian locations is associated with peak electricity market demand and peak electricity market price. More specifically, solar radiation and electricity market data for the period 1 May 2002 to 30 April 2004 are examined for Calgary, Alta. and Guelph, Ont. A variety of visual and statistical investigations reveal that solar radiation values coincide closely with peak electricity market demand and, though to a somewhat lesser extent, peak electricity market prices during the summertime in each location. While more detailed investigation is needed in order to determine the specific impact of different levels of PV penetration upon provincial electricity markets, the article provides ample encouragement for further research. The article also shows how different techniques can be used—in any location—to investigate the relationship among solar electricity potential, system-wide demand and market prices. With electricity industries being restructured around the world, it continues to be important for solar energy proponents to participate in discussions regarding economic costs and benefits. Techniques used in this article can help them advance the solar electricity case more effectively and thus catalyse the deployment of photovoltaics in markets around the world.     

南方区域电力营销环境下的储能市场研究

  目的   随着清洁能源转型和电力市场化改革深入,南方区域电力储能的政策机制和市场环境不断向好。   方法   研究了南方区域储能相关的电力辅助服务市场和需求响应市场规则,从辅助服务交易品种、用户侧需求响应、新能源配储能和独立储能站等四个方面分析了南方区域储能市场发展趋势,并以用户侧储能投资运营经济性评估为例进行量化分析。   结果   研究表明:电力营销市场竞争条件下,越是在调频、调峰需求量大、灵活性调节资源缺乏的地区,储能参与辅助服务或需求响应对系统做出的贡献越大越显著,所带来的综合效益越多。   结论   可为电力储能商业模式创新和应用推广提供思路。      

The analysis of security cost for different energy sources

Global concerns for the security of energy have steadily been on the increase and are expected to become a major issue over the next few decades. Urgent policy response is thus essential. However, little attempt has been made at defining both energy security and energy metrics. In this study, we provide such metrics and apply them to four major energy sources in the Korean electricity market: coal, oil, liquefied natural gas, and nuclear. In our approach, we measure the cost of energy security in terms of supply disruption and price volatility, and we consider the degree of concentration in energy supply and demand using the Hirschman–Herfindahl index (HHI). Due to its balanced fuel supply and demand, relatively stable price, and high abundance, we find nuclear energy to be the most competitive energy source in terms of energy security in the Korean electricity market. LNG, on the other hand, was found to have the highest cost in term of energy security due to its high concentration in supply and demand, and its high price volatility. In addition, in terms of cost, we find that economic security dominates supply security, and as such, it is the main factor in the total security cost. Within the confines of concern for global energy security, our study both broadens our understanding of energy security and enables a strategic approach in the portfolio management of energy consumption.     

2006年中国水电建设全面提速

回顾我国2006年的水电发展态势,可以概括为水电建设全面提速,水电建设的春天已经到来。在中央关于“在保护生态的基础上有序发展水电”方针的指引下,由于我国经济持续高速增长对电力的旺盛需求,为减轻对煤炭的压力,减轻污染,减少温室气体的排放,增加清洁能源的需求促进了水电发展。同时,由于电力体制改革,通过市场竞争配置资源,由于水电的长期效益好,各大发电集团和水电公司、民营企业均加大水电开发力度,促进了水电发展。水电建设全面提速,各项指标达到世界领先水平。在大中型水电发展的同时,新农村建设促进了小水电发展,小水电占水电装机的1/3。水电建设全面提速促进机电设备国产化率提高;水电技术走向世界初具规模,水电科技达到世界先进水平。     

英、美、日电力改革之借鉴

世界各国的电力市场化改革还处于不断探索阶段。目前国际上还设有一个公认的完美的电力市场模式可以适用于各国不同的国情和电网的实际情况。在世界各国的电力市场改革中,英国采用了自上而下的纵向分离的电力市场改革模式;美国采用了更接近于自然历史过程的纵向整合电力市场改革模式;日本则采用了引入有限竞争的单一买家电力市场改革模式。我国的电力市场改革才刚刚起步,英、美、日电力市场的运行实践对我国的电力市场改革有以下启示：①准备充分,先行立法;②统一规划,多方协调;③总体设计,分步实施;④要健全政府监管;⑤建立合理的电价形成机制;⑥电力市场建设要符合市场经济特征;⑦建立电力市场建设的动态调控机制。