Overview of the next quarter century vision of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles

Last three decades, costumers and manufacturers of automotive sector have been influenced positively by Hydrogen and fuel cells (FCs). The main goal of automakers can be pointed as minimizing the fuel consumption and exhaust emissions while improving the range limits, energy efficiency and latest technology adaptation. Therewithal, electric assisted propulsion systems added to vehicles and are called as electric vehicles (EVs). For that matter, Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) have become the focus of researchers and producers. In this mini foreseen review, overview of the next quarter century vision of FCEVs are expressed and discussed by the helped of previous researches and with future forecast reports. The introduction part is summarized the general approach and future expectations of FCs in detailed. Technical overview is represented for FCs and FCEVs in terms of current state of technology to foreseen expectancy. Infrastructure analysis and future aspects overview part is also discussed for sector's perspective on FCEVs. The near future perspective of the FCEVs, which is seen as the next step in EVs, is discussed in detail in the next quarter century vision. Authors concluded that, between the 2030s-2050s, hydrogen FCEVs will continue their rising demand scale under the circumstances of decreasing expensive technology; enhanced energy optimization; extended range limits and increasing hydrogen refueling stations.     

Comparative analysis of battery electric,hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system

This paper compares battery electric vehicles (BEV) to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and hydrogen fuel cell plug-in hybrid vehicles (FCHEV). Qualitative comparisons of technologies and infrastructural requirements, and quantitative comparisons of the lifecycle cost of the powertrain over 100,000 mile are undertaken, accounting for capital and fuel costs. A common vehicle platform is assumed. The 2030 scenario is discussed and compared to a conventional gasoline-fuelled internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrain. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis shows that in 2030 FCEVs could achieve lifecycle cost parity with conventional gasoline vehicles. However, both the BEV and FCHEV have significantly lower lifecycle costs. In the 2030 scenario, powertrain lifecycle costs of FCEVs range from $7360 to $22,580, whereas those for BEVs range from $6460 to $11,420 and FCHEVs, from $4310 to $12,540. All vehicle platforms exhibit significant cost sensitivity to powertrain capital cost. The BEV and FCHEV are relatively insensitive to electricity costs but the FCHEV and FCV are sensitive to hydrogen cost. The BEV and FCHEV are reasonably similar in lifecycle cost and one may offer an advantage over the other depending on driving patterns. A key conclusion is that the best path for future development of FCEVs is the FCHEV.     

Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles.     

Impact of powertrain hybridization on the performance and costs of a fuel cell electric vehicle

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) have gained attention due to the growing concern about air quality in large urban centers. Barriers such as high purchase price and the lack of a supply infrastructure delay the mass adoption of these vehicles. The current work uses the Advanced Vehicle Simulator (ADVISOR) to analyze the influence of the degree of hybridization (DOH) on the performance and total cost of an FCEV (Hyundai Nexo 2019 model). The costs and fuel economy results of the different configurations (different DOH) are compared to those of the original vehicle. The configuration with the highest degree of hybridization (DOH = 61.2%) showed an 8.3% increase in fuel economy and a total cost reduction of 13.2% compared to the original vehicle. In addition, the best vehicle configuration results are compared to a same-segment gasoline-internal combustion engine vehicle and the original Hyundai Nexo in different cost scenarios.     

Forecasting the value of battery electric vehicles compared to internal combustion engine vehicles: The influence of driving range and battery technology

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are now clearly a promising candidate to address the environmental problems that are associated with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Accordingly, governments in many countries have promoted consumer adoption of BEVs by providing financial incentives and automobile manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to develop BEVs. However, BEVs, unlike ICEVs, have not yet achieved mass market entry; continuing technological change is one way this barrier could be surmounted. The aim of this study is to assess and forecast whether and when design changes and technological improvements related to major challenges in driving range and battery cost will make the user value of BEVs greater than that of ICEVs. Specifically, we estimate the relative user value of BEVs and ICEVs resulting after design modifications are implemented to achieve different driving ranges by considering engineering trade-offs based on vehicle simulations. Then, we analyze when the BEV relative user value is expected to exceed that of ICEVs as energy density and cost of batteries improve due to ongoing technological changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the relative value of BEVs is lower than that of ICEVs because BEVs have high battery cost and high cost of time spent recharging them, despite featuring high torque, high fuel efficiency, and low fuel cost. Moreover, we found that the relative value differences between BEVs and ICEVs are found to be lower for high-performance large cars than low-performance compact cars because BEVs can achieve high acceleration performance more easily than can ICEVs. In addition, this study predicts that in approximately the year 2050, high-performance large BEVs could have a higher relative value than high-performance large ICEVs because of technological improvements in batteries; however, low-performance compact BEVs are still very likely to have significantly lower user values than will comparable ICEVs until well beyond the year 2050.     

Willingness to pay for hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles in China: A choice experiment analysis

The hydrogen energy is considered to be main power source of transport sector in the future, and a huge amount of funds have been invested into developing hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Since FCEVs are in initial development stage and there're few FCEVs on the road, before their expansion this paper intends to conduct an economic analysis for FCEVs by using the choice experiment method. In the choice experiment, 1072 participants were required to select among two FCEVs and one conventional fuel vehicle. Logit models were estimated and then the results were used to calculate the willingness to pay for FCEVs. Results showed that purchase price, driving range, refueling time, fuel cost, emissions reduction, refueling accessibility are significant influences, and the marginal values for every 200 km improvement in driving range, 5 min reduction in refueling time, RMB 0.5/kilometer reduction in fuel cost, 20% reduction in emissions, and 20% improvement of refueling accessibility were estimated to be RMB 49,091, 12,727, 3818, 47,818, and 12,909, respectively. A range of FCEV configurations were calculated, and compared to a gasoline-powered counterpart the extra value that customers were likely to pay for a FCEV ranged from RMB 20,810 to 95,310. These results have significant implications for promoting FCEVs and contribute to better sustainability in transport sector.     

Multicriterion optimal electric drive vehicle selection based on lifecycle emission and lifecycle cost

This research paper examines the optimal choice among conventional gasoline vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug‐in HEVs (PHEV), and full‐battery EVs taking into account the different characteristics of these vehicles, such as cost, emissions per mile, and vehicle miles to be traveled between refueling and acceleration time. The existing challenges for wide‐spread deployment of EVs are availability of charging infrastructure, higher cost, long time for charging, and lower travel millage compared with conventional vehicles. Statistical data are considered for determining the spatially varying average daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) across the United States, which, together with charging behavior, can influence the optimal choice among EV with different travel ranges. Two alternative cases for charging are examined: (1) home‐only charging and (2) home plus work charging. The motivation of this work is to select the optimal EV among their types when lifecycle cost and lifecycle emission are considered. The optimization model seeks to minimize total lifecycle cost and emissions for each level of VMT per day. It is found that when lifecycle cost is the sole objective, HEV is usually the best choice, especially for higher VMT levels. When lifecycle greenhouse gas emission is the sole objective, PHEV1 (PHEV with 1 charging station) is the optimal solution over a wide range of VMTs. The outcome of this provides a roadmap for the selection of EVs based on their annual VMT to reduce both lifecycle emission and lifecycle cost.     

Hydrogen-powered vehicles for autonomous ride-hailing fleets

Autonomous ride-hailing fleets are approaching commercialization as an on-demand, low-cost transportation solution. Although battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are well-studied for this application, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) may provide additional advantages that have not been sufficiently investigated. Here, we developed a stochastic ride-hailing autonomous vehicle (RHAV) model to compare these technologies and applied this model to seven BEVs and two FCEVs. FCEV fleets are 3–10% smaller than BEV fleets due to shorter refueling times and greater driving ranges, which enable greater fleet efficiency. The Hyundai Kona (BEV) provides the greatest fleet profitability; however, the Toyota Mirai (FCEV) is only 3% less profitable despite having a 25% higher purchase price. We demonstrate that FCEVs are economically competitive as RHAVs, and that expected price reductions can make them the most profitable technology. Furthermore, FCEV fleets provide qualitative benefits, including a substantial increase in local hydrogen demand to catalyze hydrogen infrastructure development.     

Environmental evaluation of introducing electric vehicles using a dynamic traffic-flow model

A dynamic traffic-flow model (DTFM) is used in this study to evaluate the effectiveness of introducing electric vehicles (EVs) into the total traffic system as one of the alternative fuel vehicles. This model simulates congested and non-congested traffic flow caused by changes in the traffic demand. An environmental evaluation is carried out on the basis that all vehicles are substituted for EVs. Calculated results indicate that by introducing EVs, the NO_x emissions and the CO₂ emissions can be reduced by approximately 25.7 and 14.4% respectively. If battery performance of EVs is improved further, emissions can be further reduced by 39.6% (NO_x) and 27.8% (CO₂). Since emissions from heavy-duty vehicles are greater than other vehicles, the following measures have to be taken for these vehicles to significantly improve their impact upon the overall environment: (1) improvement in fuel efficiency and reductions of NO_x in exhaust gas, (2) traffic demand management, such as modal shift.     

Willingness to pay and preferences for alternative incentives to EV purchase subsidies: An empirical study in China

The transport sector's promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) is an important tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The high monetary subsidies widely used to promote EV diffusion in many countries are not sustainable in the long term. Therefore, effective alternative incentives are needed as subsidies are gradually phased out. In this paper, consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for alternative incentives is studied based on a questionnaire survey. Using a discrete choice experiment, 1719 Chinese consumer questionnaires were collected. Consumers' WTP for nine alternative policies was calculated by applying the multinomial logit model and mixed logit model, and the mixed logit model is used as the main model of this study because of its better statistical performance. Finally, the relationship between the respondent heterogeneity and policy preferences was studied. The results show that alternative incentives can fill the gap produced by subsidy reductions. EV privileges like no restrictions on driving and purchases, which have the lowest implementation cost, are suitable for first- and second- tier cities. For second-tier cities, construction of more charging stations is the most appropriate choice. The heterogeneous features of the respondents, including cities of residence, type of vehicle owned, recognition of the environmental benefits of EVs, gender, and whether the family has children, had a significant impact on policy preferences.     

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles can be clean and economical in dirty power systems

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) that are driven and charged in ‘dirty’ power systems, with high penetrations of coal and other polluting generation fuels, may yield higher net emissions than conventional vehicles (CVs). We examine the implications of imposing a constraint on PHEV recharging that forces emissions from PHEVs to be no greater than those from a comparable CV. We use the Texas power system, which has a mix of coal- and natural gas-fired generation and has been shown to yield higher emissions from PHEVs than CVs, as a case study. Our results show that imposing the emissions constraint results in most of the PHEV charging loads being shifted from coal- to cleaner natural gas-fired generators. There is, however, virtually no increase in generation or PHEV driving costs due to efficiency benefits that are possible through coordination of unit commitment and PHEV charging decisions.     

The feasibility of long range battery electric cars in New Zealand

New Zealand transport accounts for over 40% of the carbon emissions with private cars accounting for 25%. In the Ministry of Economic Development's recently released “New Zealand Energy Strategy to 2050”, it proposed the wide scale deployment of electric vehicles as a means of reducing carbon emissions from transport. However, New Zealand's lack of public transport infrastructure and its subsequent reliance on private car use for longer journeys could mean that many existing battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will not have the performance to replace conventionally fuelled cars.As such, this paper discusses the potential for BEVs in New Zealand, with particular reference to the development of the University of Waikato's long-range UltraCommuter BEV. It is shown that to achieve a long range at higher speeds, BEVs should be designed specifically rather than retrofitting existing vehicles to electric. Furthermore, the electrical energy supply for a mixed fleet of 2 million BEVs is discussed and conservatively calculated, along with the number of wind turbines to achieve this. The results show that approximately 1350 MW of wind turbines would be needed to supply the mixed fleet of 2 million BEVs, or 54% of the energy produced from NZ's planned and installed wind farms.     

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO₂ mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO₂ mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.     

Influence of driving patterns on life cycle cost and emissions of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicle powertrains

We compare the potential of hybrid, extended-range plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles to reduce lifetime cost and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions under various scenarios and simulated driving conditions. We find that driving conditions affect economic and environmental benefits of electrified vehicles substantially: Under the urban NYC driving cycle, hybrid and plug-in vehicles can cut life cycle emissions by 60% and reduce costs up to 20% relative to conventional vehicles (CVs). In contrast, under highway test conditions (HWFET) electrified vehicles offer marginal emissions reductions at higher costs. NYC conditions with frequent stops triple life cycle emissions and increase costs of conventional vehicles by 30%, while aggressive driving (US06) reduces the all-electric range of plug-in vehicles by up to 45% compared to milder test cycles (like HWFET). Vehicle window stickers, fuel economy standards, and life cycle studies using average lab-test vehicle efficiency estimates are therefore incomplete: (1) driver heterogeneity matters, and efforts to encourage adoption of hybrid and plug-in vehicles will have greater impact if targeted to urban drivers vs. highway drivers; and (2) electrified vehicles perform better on some drive cycles than others, so non-representative tests can bias consumer perception and regulation of alternative technologies. We discuss policy implications.     

A comprehensive review on theoretical framework‐based electric vehicle consumer adoption research

Green vehicles, such as electric vehicles (EVs), are getting noteworthy popularity among consumers worldwide. The purpose of this paper is to establish EVs as a feasible long‐term solution for the future of technology in the vehicle industry, which can decrease the current dependency on fossil fuels and also decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a part of long‐term benefits, the adoption of EVs gives environmentally friendly innovation to society. Despite positive environmental implications, the total number of EVs in usage is still inadequate. One of the major causes of this insubstantial adoption of EVs is largely dependent on the perceptions of consumers regarding EVs. However, this particular research study offers an inclusive outline on the existing hurdles for consumer adoption of EVs as well as a framework of the theoretical standpoints that were developed for the adoption behaviour, in addition to considering consumer intentions in the direction of EVs. In this particular study, the researcher found that the literature regarding EV adoption tried to address only the diffusion method of EVs. Whereas this study highlights consumer innovations, which provides a wide insight on consumer emotions to overlook the major aspect in consumer EVs' adoption research. The theme of this particular literature can be implemented in order to better understand the consumers' emotions and behaviour towards the adoption of EVs. The scholars further stated that there is a possible cause for more recent developments within the technological adoption part that can assist to be a standard for upcoming developments. For the last few years, knowledge regarding the problems surrounding the adoption and diffusion of EVs has gained less attention. This study expands this line of research by focusing on making a chance for developing the theoretical frameworks in terms of adding emotions in a psychological perspective where consumer behaviour and ethics are considered. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Targeting plug-in hybrid electric vehicle policies to increase social benefits

In 2009 the U.S. federal government enacted tax credits aimed at encouraging consumers to purchase plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). These tax credits are available to all consumers equally and therefore do not account for the variability in social benefits associated with PHEV operation in different parts of the country. The tax credits also do not consider variability in consumer income. This paper discusses why the PHEV subsidy policy would have higher social benefits at equal or less cost if the tax credits were offered at different levels depending on consumer income and the location of purchase. Quantification of these higher social benefits and related policy proposals are left for future work.     

Primary energy efficiency of alternative powertrains in vehicles

This study considers the technical potential concerning the energy efficiency attainable for vehicles with alternative powertrains within 10–20 years. The potential for electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) is assessed and compared with the potential improvement in conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEVs). Primary energy efficiency is the measure used in this study for comparison. The calculations of primary energy efficiency are based on three different resources: fossil fuels, biomass, and primary electricity from wind, solar or hydropower. This study shows that there is potential for doubling the primary energy efficiency using alternative powertrains in vehicles such as BEVs, HEVs and FCEVs, compared with existing ICEVs. All vehicles with an alternative powertrain have a higher potential for primary energy efficiency than vehicles with an improved conventional powertrain. No “winner” amongst the alternative powertrains could be identified from a primary energy efficiency point of view.     

The effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption

In order to increase the attractiveness of electric vehicles (EVs), packages of policy incentives are provided in many countries. However, it is still unclear how effective different policy incentives are. Also, it is questionable that they have the same impact on different groups of people. In this study, based on a stated-choice experiment, the effect of several potential policy incentives on EV-adoption, as well as the influence of socio-psychological determinants are investigated, using constructs of the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM) and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT).The probability of stated EV-adoption increases if policy incentives are offered in the choice experiment, which is expected because of the decrease of the generalized cost of EV-use. The high stated valuation of free parking or access to bus lanes makes those incentives an efficient alternative to expensive subsidies. EV-adoption probability increases for people that are further in the process of behavioural change. However, the responsiveness to subsidies decreases for people in more advanced stages-of-change. People that believe EVs to be effective in decreasing the negative externalities of the current transport system and people whose travel patterns can cope with the use of EVs also have a higher probability to choose the EV.     

城市公交车辆的发展方向分析

随着城市规模不断扩大以及城市人口和车辆的快速增加,以汽车为主要工具的城市交通消耗的燃油将会随之增加。当前,城市交通所面临的问题日益严重,开发清洁燃料汽车成为实现城市交通可持续发展的战略选择。介绍了电动汽车的不同种类及特点,尤其是混合动力汽车的优点和局限性,指出了我国城市电动公交车辆的发展方向。     

The role of renewable fuel supply in the transport sector in a future decarbonized energy system

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have been identified as two electromobility options which can help to achieve GHG emission reduction targets in the transport sector. However, both options will also impact the future energy system characterized by integration of various demand sectors and increasing intermittent power generation. The objective of this paper is to examine the optimal mix of both propulsion systems and to analyze the cost for renewable fuel supply. We propose a generic approach for dimensioning of fast charging and hydrogen refueling stations and optimization of the fuel supply system. The model is applied in a case study for passenger cars on German highways. The results indicate that a parallel build-up of stations for both technologies does not increase the overall costs. Moreover, the technology combination is also an optimal solution from the system perspective due to synergetic use of hydrogen but limited efficiency losses. Hence, BEVs and FCEVs should jointly contribute to the decarbonization of the future energy system.