Quantitative risk assessment of a hydrogen refueling station by using a dynamic physical model based on multi-physics system-level modeling

Numerous accidents in HRSs have been reported worldwide in accident databases; therefore, many researchers have performed quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of HRSs to enable risk-informed decision making in determining the safety distances or risk mitigation measures. The HRSs, located in urban areas such as Tokyo in Japan, are situated in congested areas with tall buildings and high population density; thus, they have relatively narrow station areas. However, the QRAs are generally suitable for large plants such as nuclear power plants or chemical plants; therefore, relatively small plants or installations, such as HRSs, have not yet been considered as QRA objects. Hence, it is necessary to conduct detailed QRAs with risk analyses and reduce the applied uncertainties for relatively small plants or installations. We applied a model-based approach of risk assessment to model the HRS process using multi-physics system-level modeling and simulated a target system using Modelica—an equation-based, object-oriented modeling language that allows acausal modeling of complex cyber-physical systems The primary aim of this study was to conduct a QRA of an HRS based on multi-physics system-level modeling. First, we modeled the HRS components and physical relationships between the components using basic physical equations. Then, we elucidate a QRA based on the constructed model. The difference in the leakage rates due to the leak positions and dynamic behavior of the model parameters were calculated using the constructed model. Finally, we estimated the individual risks of all the scenarios and compared the resulting risk contours based on the constructed model that includes the hydrogen-fuel dynamic behavior with those based on the traditional model. These results indicate that it is possible to assess whether the risks around the station boundary are acceptable based on the scenario information obtained by evaluating the risks near the station.     

Hydrogen refuelling stations in the Netherlands: An intercomparison of quantitative risk assessments used for permitting

As of 2003, 15 hydrogen refuelling stations (HRSs) have been deployed in the Netherlands. To become established, the HRS has to go through a permitting procedure. An important document of the permitting dossier is the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as it assesses the risks of the HRS associated to people and buildings in the vicinity of the HRS. In the Netherlands, a generic prescribed approach exists on how to perform a QRA, however specific guidelines for HRSs do not exist. An intercomparison among the QRAs of permitted HRSs has revealed significant inconsistencies on various aspects of the QRA: namely the inclusion of HRS sub-systems and components, the HRS sub-system and component considerations as predefined components, the application of failure scenarios, the determination of failure frequencies, the application of input parameters, the consideration of preventive and mitigation measures as well as information provided regarding the HRS surroundings and the societal risk. It is therefore recommended to develop specific QRA guidelines for HRSs.     

Comparative risk assessment of liquefied and gaseous hydrogen refueling stations

Several countries are incentivizing the use of hydrogen (H₂) fuel cell vehicles, thereby increasing the number of H₂ refueling stations (HRSs), particularly in urban areas with high population density and heavy traffic. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risks of gaseous H₂ refueling stations (GHRSs) and liquefied H₂ refueling stations (LHRSs). This study aimed to perform a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of GHRSs and LHRSs. A comparative study is performed to enhance the decision-making of engineers in setting safety goals and defining design options. A systematic QRA approach is proposed to estimate the likelihood and consequences of hazardous events occurring at HRSs. Consequence analysis results indicate that catastrophic ruptures of tube trailer and liquid hydrogen storage tanks are the worst accidents, as they cause fires and explosions. An assessment of individual and societal risks indicates that LHRSs present a lower hazard risk than GHRSs. However, both station types require additional safety barrier devices for risk reduction, such as detachable couplings, hydrogen detection sensors, and automatic and manual emergency shutdown systems, which are required for risk acceptance.     

Quantitative risk assessment of the interior of a hydrogen refueling station considering safety barrier systems

A quantitative risk assessment of human life during the operation of a hydrogen refueling station (HRS) is conducted. We calculate the risks for three accident scenarios: a hydrogen leak from the external piping surrounding a dispenser, a hydrogen leak from an accumulator connection piping and a hydrogen leak from a compressor/connection piping in the HRS. We first calculate the probability of accident by multiplying the estimated leak frequency with the incident occurrence probability considering the ignition probability and failure probability of the safety barrier systems obtained through event tree analysis for each scenario. We next simulate the blast and flame effects of the ignition of concentration fields formed by hydrogen leakage. We then use existing probit functions to estimate the consequences of eardrum rupture, fatalities due to displacement by the blast wave, fatalities due to head injuries, first-degree burns, second-degree burns, and fatal burn injuries by accident scenario, leak size, and incident event, and we estimate the risk distribution in 1-m cells. We finally assess the risk reduction effects of barrier placement and the distance to the dispenser and quantify the risk level that HRSs can achieve under existing law. Quantitative risk assessment reveals that the risk for a leak near the dispenser is less than 10⁻⁶ per year outside a distance of 6 m to the dispenser. The risk for a leak near the accumulators and compressors exceeds 10⁻⁴ per year within a distance of 10 m from the ignition point. A separation of 6 m to the dispenser and a barrier height of 3 m keep the fatal risk from burns to the workers, consumers and residents and passersby below the acceptable level of risk. Our results therefore show that current laws sufficiently mitigate the risks posed by HRSs and open up the possibility for a regulatory review.     

Does risk information change the acceptance of hydrogen refueling stations in the general Japanese population?

Hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are inevitable infrastructure for the utility of fuel cell vehicles, but they can raise people's safety concerns. We analyzed whether information on the risk/safety measures changed people's acceptance of HRSs. Respondents were provided those information and asked to rate their acceptance of an HRS placement either beside their home or at the gas station closest to their home. The respondents' perception of the risk of HRSs and their attitudes on environmental issues are analyzed by factor analyses. The results show that provision of the quantitative risk information and risk acceptance criteria increased the acceptability of HRS in proximity to the homes of respondents (P < 0.1) but decreased the acceptability of HRS at the nearest gas station. Factor analyses suggest that risk information on HRS alleviates the respondents' feelings of dread or uncertainty, leading to better acceptance. Our study should promote improved risk communication prior to HRS installation.     

A quantitative risk assessment of hydrogen fuel cell forklifts

With the increasing deployment of hydrogen fuel cell forklifts, it is essential to understand the risks of incidents involving these systems. A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) study was conducted to determine the potential hydrogen release scenarios, probabilities, and consequences in fuel cell forklift operations. QRA modeling tools, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and event sequence diagrams (ESD), were used together with hydrogen systems data. This work provides insights into the fatality risk from a hydrogen fuel cell forklift and the reliability of its design and components. The analysis shows that the expected fatal accident rate of a hydrogen forklift is considerably higher than current fatal injury rates observed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for industrial truck operators and material handling occupations. Nevertheless, the average individual risk posed to forklift drivers was found to be likely tolerable based on current risks accepted by industrial truck operators. Jet fires are found to dominate the system's risk, however, the risk of explosions is also considerable. An importance measures analysis shows that these risks could be mitigated by improving the design and reliability of pressure relief devices, as well as other components prone to leak such as filters and check valves. We also identify sources of uncertainty and conservatisms in the QRA process that can guide future research in hydrogen systems. These results provide powerful insight into improvements in the design of fuel cell forklifts to reduce risk and enable the safe deployment of this key technology for a decarbonized future.     

Benchmark exercise on risk assessment methods applied to a virtual hydrogen refuelling station

A benchmarking exercise on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodologies for hydrogen safety has been conducted within the project HyQRA, under the framework of the European Network of Excellence (NoE), HySafe. The aim of the exercise was twofold: (i) to identify the differences and similarities in approaches in a QRA and their results for a hydrogen installation and (ii) to identify knowledge gaps in the various steps and parameters underlying the risk quantification of hydrogen safety.First, a reference case was defined for the benchmark: a virtual hydrogen refuelling station (HRS) in virtual surroundings comprising housing, school, shops and other vulnerable objects. For the study, a two phase approach was followed.In phase 1, all nine partners were requested to conduct a QRA according to their usual approach and experience. Basically, participants were free to define representative release cases, to apply models and frequency assessments according their own methodology, and to present risk according to their usual format. To enable inter-comparison, a required set of results data was prescribed, like distances to specific thermal radiation levels from fires and distances to specific overpressure levels. Moreover, complete documentation of assumptions, base data and references was to be reported.It was not surprising that a wide range of results was obtained, both in the applied approaches as well as in the quantitative outcomes and conclusions. This made it difficult to identify exactly which assumptions and parameters were responsible for the differences in results.These results provided the basis for a more guided QRA, the second phase. This phase 2 was defined in which the QRA was determined by a more limited number of release cases (scenarios). The partners in the project agreed to assess specific scenarios in order to identify the differences in consequence assessment approaches. The results of this phase provide a better understanding of the influence of modelling assumptions and limitations on the eventual conclusions with regard to risk to on-site people and to the off-site public.     

Construction of a structural equation model to identify public acceptance factors for hydrogen refueling stations under the provision of risk and safety information

Hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are an inevitable infrastructure for the utility of fuel cell vehicles; however, they can raise public safety concerns. The aim of this study is to establish a framework for public acceptance of HRSs in Japan upon the provision of risk and/or safety measure information on HRSs. We executed an in-person interview survey asking the respondents about their acceptance of HRSs and then constructed a structural equation model on HRS acceptance with four endogenous factors. The common factors to determine acceptability were “Dread” and “Independent”. “Balance” was added to the factors for the risk-informed group. If risk information was provided, people tended to judge based on their inherent sense of “Balance”; however, if it was not provided, their judgment was based on their intuitive “Dread” of HRSs or hydrogen. This study reveals risk perception characteristics and attempts to promote improved risk communication prior to HRS installation.     

The quantitative risk assessment of a hydrogen generation unit

The safety of hydrogen generation process is a major concern. This paper discusses the quantitative analyzes of the risk imposed on neighborhood from the operation of a hydrogen generator using natural gas reforming process. For this purpose, after hazard identification, the frequency of scenarios was estimated using generic data. Quantitative risk assessment was applied for consequence modeling and risk estimation. The results revealed that, jet fire caused by a full bore rupture in Desulphurization reactor has the highest fatality (26person) and affects the largest area of 5102 m². The lethality radius, maximum radiation and safe distance of this incident were 140 m, 370 kW/m² and 225 m respectively. A full bore rupture in Reformer can lead to the most dangerous flash fire. In this incident the concentration of released material in LFL zone (area of 1483.17 m²) and ½ LEL zone (area of 1970.74 m²) were 61,125 ppm and 40,000 ppm respectively. QRA is a credible method to assess the risks of hydrogen generation process.     

Exact algorithms for incremental deployment of hydrogen refuelling stations

Given the large investments required to establish hydrogen refuelling stations (HRSs) and the difficulty in forecasting the sales of fuel cell electric vehicles, incremental HRS deployment offers an efficient method of establishing hydrogen infrastructure with a sufficient load factor and low financial risk. Considering that some HRSs are already in use, this study assumed that the optimal location of a new HRS maximises its distance from existing HRSs and minimises its distance from customer demand points. Accordingly, a multi-objective location model and efficient exact solution methods were proposed to determine the optimal location of one or two new HRSs. As a case study, the solution methods were applied to supply hydrogen to an increasing captive fleet of taxis in a large metropolis such as Paris with fixed demand points. The methods can be widely applied to effectively install one or two HRSs incrementally.     

Tube-trailer consolidation strategy for reducing hydrogen refueling station costs

The rollout of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) requires the initial deployment of an adequate network of hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs). Such deployment has proven to be challenging because of the high initial capital investment, the risk associated with such an investment, and the underutilization of HRSs in early FCEV markets. Because the compression system at an HRS represents about half of the station's initial capital cost, novel concepts that would reduce the cost of compression are needed. Argonne National Laboratory with support from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO) has evaluated the potential for delivering hydrogen in high-pressure tube-trailers as a way of reducing HRS compression and capital costs. This paper describes a consolidation strategy for a high-pressure (250-bar) tube-trailer capable of reducing the compression cost at an HRS by about 60% and the station's initial capital investment by about 40%. The consolidation of tube-trailers at pressures higher than 250 bar (e.g., 500 bar) can offer even greater HRS cost-reduction benefits. For a typical hourly fueling-demand profile and for a given compression capacity, consolidating hydrogen within the pressure vessels of a tube-trailer can triple the station's capacity for fueling FCEVs. The high-pressure tube-trailer consolidation concept could play a major role in enabling the early, widespread deployment of HRSs because it lowers the required HRS capital investment and distributes the investment risk among the market segments of hydrogen production, delivery, and refueling.     

The impact of hydrogen refueling station subsidy strategy on China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market diffusion

Lack of hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) has hindered the diffusion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) in the Chinese transport market. By combining the agent-based model (ABM) and the experience weighted attraction (EWA) learning algorithm, this paper explores the impact of government subsidy strategy for HRSs on the market diffusion of HFCVs. The actions of the parties (government, HRS planning department and consumers) and their interactions are taken into account. The new model suggests dynamic subsidy mode based on EWA algorithm yields better results than static subsidy mode: HFCV purchases, HRS construction effort, total number of HRSs and expected HRS planning department profits all outperform static data by around 27%. In addition, choosing an appropriate initial subsidy strategy can increase the sales of HFCVs by nearly 40%. Early investment from government to establish initial HRSs can also increase market diffusion efficiency by more than 76.7%.     

Data requirements for improving the Quantitative Risk Assessment of liquid hydrogen storage systems

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) supports the development of risk-informed safety codes and standards which are employed to enable the safe deployment of hydrogen technologies essential to decarbonize the transportation sector. System reliability data is a necessary input for rigorous QRA. The lack of reliability data for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH₂) storage systems located on site at fueling stations limits the use of QRAs. In turn, this hinders the ability to develop the necessary safety codes and standards that enable worldwide deployment of these stations. Through a QRA-based analysis of a LH₂ storage system, this work focuses on identifying relevant scenario and probability data currently available and ascertaining future data collection requirements regarding risks specific to liquid hydrogen releases. The work developed consists of the analysis of a general bulk LH₂ storage system design located at a hydrogen fueling station. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and traditional QRA modeling tools such as Event Sequence Diagrams (ESD) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) are employed to identify, rank, and model risk scenarios related to the release of LH₂. Based on this analysis, scenario and reliability data needs to add LH₂-related components to QRA are identified with the purpose of improving the future safety and risk assessment of these systems.     

Quantitative risk assessment on a gaseous hydrogen refueling station in Shanghai

The potential risk exposure of people for hydrogen refueling stations is often a critical factor to gain authority approval and public acceptance. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is often used to quantify the risk around hydrogen facilities and support the communication with authorities during the permitting process. This paper shows a case study on a gaseous hydrogen refueling station using QRA methodology. Risks to station personnel, to refueling customers and to third parties are evaluated respectively. Both individual risk measure and societal risk measure are used in risk assessment. Results show that the compressor leak is the main contributor to risks of all three parties. Elevating compressors can be considered as an effective mitigation measure to reduce occupational risks while setting enclosure around compressors cannot. Both measures are effective to reduce risks to customers. As for third parties, societal risks can be reduced to ALARP region by either elevating compressors or setting enclosure around compressors. External safety distance of compressors cannot be considerably reduced by elevation of compressors, but can significantly be reduced by setting compressor enclosure. However, safety distances of the station are not very sensitive to both mitigation measures.     

Solar-powered Hydrogen Refueling Stations: A techno-economic analysis

Fuel cell vehicles are a possible alternative for allowing a replacement of fossil-fuel based transportation. Thereby, this work's methodology proposes a Hydrogen Refueling Station (HRS) design powered by a photovoltaic plant for supplying the taxi fleet in a Brazilian city considering different scenarios and assuming that hydrogen-powered vehicles replace the current fleet. Results show that in order to supply 100% of the taxi fleet with hydrogen, 185.4 kgH₂/day are necessary, while only 19.8 kgH₂/day are enough to supply just 10% of it. Results also reveal slight variations in energy intensity. Hydrogen production costs are inversely proportional to the HRS's production capacity. Hydrogen costs about US$ 8.96/kg for larger HRSs and US$ 13.55/kg for smaller ones. Finally, the proposed system is an attractive alternative in the future nationwide, due to the fact that the cost of electricity has been escalating year after year above inflation rates.     

Consequence assessment of the BBC H2 refuelling station using the ADREA-HF code

Within the framework of the internal project HyQRA of the HYSAFE Network of Excellence (NoE), funded by the European Commission (EC), the participating partners were requested to apply their Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) methodologies on a predefined hypothetical gaseous H₂ refuelling station named BBC (Benchmark Base Case). The overall aim of the HyQRA project was to perform an inter-comparison of the various QRA approaches and to identify the knowledge gaps on data and information needed in the QRA steps specifically related to H₂. Partners NCSRD and UNIPI collaborated on a common QRA. UNIPI identified the hazards on site, selected the most critical ones, defined the events that could be the primary cause of an accident and provided to NCSRD the scenarios listed in risk order for the evaluation of the consequences. NCSRD performed the quantitative analysis using the ADREA-HF CFD code. The predicted risk assessment parameters (flammable H₂ mass and volume time histories and maximum horizontal and vertical distances of the LFL from the source) were provided to UNIPI to analyze the consequences and to evaluate the risk and distances of damage. In total 15 scenarios were simulated. Five of them were H₂ releases in confined ventilated spaces (inside the compression and the purification/drying buildings). The remaining 10 scenarios were releases in open/semi-confined spaces (in the storage cabinet, storage bank and refuelling hose of one dispenser). This paper presents the CFD methodology applied for the quantitative analysis of the common UNIPI/NCSRD QRA and discusses the results obtained from the performed calculations.     

TORAP — a new tool for conducting rapid risk-assessments in petroleum refineries and petrochemical industries

The use of a new computer-automated tool TORAP (TOol for Rapid risk Assessment in Petroleum refinery and Petrochemical industries) is demonstrated through a rapid and quantitative risk assessment of a typical petroleum refinery. The package has been applied for an appraisal of the risks of accidents (fires, explosions and toxic release) posed by different units of the refinery, and to identify steps to prevent/manage accidents. The studies reveal that TORAP enables a user to quickly focus on the accidents likely to occur, and enables forecasting the nature and impacts of such accidents. This information is directly utilizable in identifying 'soft' spots and in taking appropriate remedial measures to prevent or control accidents. The special attributes of TORAP are: (a) wide range of applications —  achieved by incorporating models capable of handling all types of industrial fires and explosions, (b) sophistication — brought about by including state-of-the-art models developed by these authors and others, (c) user-friendliness —  achieved by incorporating on-line help, graphics, carefully formatted output, and, above all, an automatic module, with which even a lay user can conduct a risk assessment. The entire package, especially its automatic module, is supported by an extensive knowledge-base built into the software.     

Improved safety by crossanalyzing quantitative risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations

With the goal of building 310 hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) in Korea by 2022, restrictions, such as location restrictions and separation distances, are being eased, so developing ways to improve technology and safety. As HRSs contain major facilities such as compressors, storage tanks, dispenser, and priority control panels, and a leakage could result in a large fire or explosion caused by an ignition source. To perform quantitative risk assessment, programs, namely, Hy-KoRAM and Phast/Safeti were used in this study. It could determine the damage range and effect on radiant heat and flame length, as well as personal and societal risks, using these programs. The crossanalysis of the two programs also improves the facility's safety and the reliability of the results.