Looked-but-failed-to-see-errors in traffic

Danish studies of traffic accidents at priority intersections have shown a particular type of accidents. In these accidents a car driver supposed to give way has collided with a bicycle rider on the priority road. Often the involved car drivers have maintained that they did not see the bicycle until immediately before the collision even though the bicycle must have been clearly visible.

Similar types of accidents have been the subject of studies elsewhere. In literature they are labelled “looked-but-failed-to-see”, because it seems clear that in many cases the car drivers have actually been looking in the direction where the other parties were but have not seen (i.e. perceived the presence of) the other road user. This paper describes two studies approaching this problem.

One study is based on 10 self-reported near accidents. It does show that “looked-but-failed-to-see” events do occur, especially for well experienced drivers. The other study based on Gap Acceptance shows that the car driver acceptance of gaps towards cyclists depends on whether or not another car is present. Hypotheses for driver perception and for accident countermeasures are discussed.     

ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification.

The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term “major accidents” must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed.

A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called “risk matrix”, crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents.

This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.     

EUROCONTROL—Systemic Occurrence Analysis Methodology (SOAM)—A “Reason”-based organisational methodology for analysing incidents and accidents

The Safety Occurrence Analysis Methodology (SOAM) developed for EUROCONTROL is an accident investigation methodology based on the Reason Model of organisational accidents. The purpose of a SOAM is to broaden the focus of an investigation from human involvement issues, also known as “active failures of operational personnel” under Reason's original model, to include analysis of the latent conditions deeper within the organisation that set the context for the event. Such an approach is consistent with the tenets of Just Culture in which people are encouraged to provide full and open information about how incidents occurred, and are not penalised for errors.A truly systemic approach is not simply a means of transferring responsibility for a safety occurrence from front-line employees to senior managers. A consistent philosophy must be applied, where the investigation process seeks to correct deficiencies wherever they may be found, without attempting to apportion blame or liability.     

Addition of “Living” Polymers onto C60.

Various “living” polymers were grafted onto C₆₀ The number of arms of the so obtained “star” molecules can be controlled by stoechiometry and/or by varying the reactivity of the carbanion on the “living” chain against a double bond on the C₆₀. Even the oxanion of “living” polyethylenoxide is able to add onto the reactive double bonds on C₆₀. In some conditions, the carbanions present on these alkaline salts of grafted fullerenes becomes able to initiate anionic polymerization of vinyl monomers. Using “living” poly(phenylvinylsulfoxide) as a precursor polymer for PA, polyacetylene chains could be attached to the fullerene.     

Comparison groups in road safety studies: An analysis

When the safety effect of some treatment is to be estimated, one has to answer the question: “what would have been the ratio of the expected number of accidents ‘before’ and ‘after’ had the treated group been left without treatment? ” In retrospective observational studies, the count of accidents on a “comparison group” is often used to provide an answer. In consequence, the estimate of the safety effect depends on which of several comparison groups is chosen. It is therefore important to have guidance for this choice. The empirical inquiry in the companion paper led to several conclusions. The explanation of what has been noted by the examination of data requires analysis and is taken up in this paper.     

Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong

‘Multiple-vehicle traffic accident’ refers to a crash between two or more moving objects. Unlike single-vehicle accidents, not all drivers involving in a multiple-vehicle accident are responsible for the occurrence of the event. Accordingly, variables such as road type, speed limit and number of vehicles involved in the accident are expected to play a much more important role in association with injury severity in multiple-vehicle accidents. To study the factors influencing injury severity of multiple-vehicle traffic accidents, a population-based study was conducted. The traffic accident data was obtained from the Traffic Accident Data System (TRADS), which was developed by the Transport Department, Police Force and Information Technology Services Department, Hong Kong. Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents (N = 10,630) occurring during the 2-year period 1999/2000 were considered. Potential risk factors such as district, human, vehicle, safety, environmental and site factors were examined. Categorizing injury severity into “fatal/serious” and “slight”, a stepwise logistic regression model was applied to the population data set. The district board, time of the accident, driver's gender, vehicle type, road type, speed limit and the number of vehicles involved are significant factors influencing the injury severity. Identification of risk factors for severe traffic accidents provides valuable information to help with new and improved road safety control measures.     

A preliminary evaluation of the impact of local accident information on the public perception of road safety

The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimate that road traffic accidents represent the third leading cause of “death and disease” worldwide. A number of countries have, therefore, launched safety campaigns that have reduced their fatalities. In almost every case, however, this reduction has not been matched by a fall in the total frequency of road traffic accidents. Low-severity incidents remain a significant problem. “Attribution error” provides one plausible explanation for this phenomenon. Most drivers believe that they are less likely to be involved in an accident than other motorists. Existing road safety campaigns do little to address this problem; they focus on national and regional statistics that often seem remote from the local experiences of road users. This paper, therefore, describes the design and development of a system to provide the general public with access to information on the location and circumstances of road accidents in a Scottish city. The closing sections describe the initial results from a psychometric study that is intended to determine whether the information provided by such an application will have any impact on individual risk perception.     

Scaling flow fields from the impact of thin plates

A dimensional analysis is performed to obtain velocity scaling relationships for the perforation of thin plates. The approach used is an extension of Dienes and Walsh's “late-stage equivalence” and Holsapple and Schmidt's “coupling parameter” concepts, used to simplify velocity scaling of impact phenomena. The coupling parameter C for plate perforation, is shown to have the form C=dU^μδ^ν for the perforation of thick plates and the form C=dU^μδ^ν f(t/d) for the perforation of thin plates (d is the projectile diameter, t is the plate thickness, U is the impact velocity and δ is the projectile density). It is shown that μ=1/2 for momentum scaling and μ=1 for energy scaling, however, from scaled hydrocode output it is found that, for aluminum impacting aluminum, the value of μ is equal to 0.83±0.03, which is neither energy nor momentum scaling. It is also shown that velocity scaling of thick plate perforation, using the same materials in the model and prototype and the same t/d, is not possible. An example of velocity scaling hydrocode output is given where the radial particle velocity wave profiles from the model calculation at U=55.6km/s and t/d=0.675 are similar to those from the prototype calculation with U=100km/s and t/d=1.08.     

On the prevention of accidents and injuries : A comparative analysis of conceptual frameworks

The meaning of prevention has changed as new applications of the concept have appeared. Ideas presented in eleven different conceptual frameworks are compared. Identification of the frameworks took place through searches in databases and relevant literature. Five are general by nature, while six relate to injuries and accidents. All are supported by just a few parameters, the time dimension being the most prominent. Compatibility was established on three additional dimensions: level (individual, organizational or societal); direction (“bottom-up” or “top-down”); and in relation to the trichotomy “host-agent-environment”. An attempt to synthesize all these dimensions into one general model of accident and injury prevention is presented.     

A study of driver experience and vehicle familiarity in accidents

A separate study was performed as part of a major accident investigation project to (1) test the hypothesis that drivers of vehicles involved in investigated accidents had less driving experience than the general driving population, and (2) test the hypothesis that accident involved drivers were less familiar with their vehicles than the general driving population. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov one-tail test was employed to evaluate the differences in the distributions of driver experience and vehicle familiarity between the “accident sample” and a “control sample.” Results indicated that drivers involved in the investigated accidents had less driving experience in general and had less driving experience with the accident vehicles than drivers in the general population. These effects are discussed briefly and further studies are suggested.     

Validation and calibration of a lateral confinement model for long-rod penetration at ordnance and high velocities

In designing targets for laboratory long-rod penetration tests, the question of lateral confinement often arises, “How wide should the target be to exert enough confinement?” For ceramic targets, the problem is enhanced as ceramics are usually weak in tension and therefore have less self-confinement capability. At high velocities the problem is enhanced even more as the crater radius and the extent of the plastic zone around it are larger. Recently we used the quasistatic cavity expansion model to estimate the resistance of ceramic targets and its dependence on impact velocity [1]. We validated the model by comparing it to computer simulations in which we used the same strength model. Here we use the same approach to address the problem of lateral confinement.

We solved the quasistatic cavity expansion problem in a cylinder with a finite outside radius “b” at which σ_r (b) = 0 (σ_r = radial stress component). We did this for three cases: ceramic targets, metal targets, and ceramic targets confined in a metal casing. Generally, σ_r (a) is a decreasing function of “a” (“a” = expanding cavity radius, and σ_r (a) = the stress needed to continue opening the cavity). In the usual cavity expansion problem b → ∞, σ_r (a) = const., R =−σ_r (a) (R = resistance to penetration). For finite “b” we estimate R by averaging σ_r (a) over a range o ≤ a ≤ a_r, (where a_r, the upper bound of the range, is calibrated from computer simulations).

We ran 14 computer simulations with the CTH wavecode and used the results to calibrate a_r for the different cases and to establish the overall validity of our approach.

We show that generally for D_t/D_p > 30, the degree of confinement is higher than 95% (D_t = target diameter; D_p = projectile diameter; and degree of CONFINEMENT = R/R_∞; R∞ = resistance of a laterally infinite target). We also show the tensile strength of ceramic targets (represented by the spall strength P_min) has a significant effect on the degree of confinement, while other material parameters have only a minor effect.     

On the combined influences of Young''s modulus and stress ratio on the LEFM fatigue crack growth process: A new mechanistic approach

A new mechanistic approach (NMA) was used recently to examine the physical aspects of LEFM (long) fatigue crack growth (FCG) process in crack-ductile materials in stages I and II. In this paper, NMA is extended to examine both the physical and analytical aspects of the combined effects of Young's modulus, E and stress ratio, R, in the same stages of the same materials. It is shown that, (i) with submicroscopic cleavage or reversed shear mechanism operating in the pure form, E is the most influential intrinsic “material” property controlling FCG, (ii) E-dependence of da/dN is a natural consequence of near-crack-tip displacement control proposed previously, and (iii) the demonstrated similarity of FCG curves and the existence of characteristic “pivot points” on these curves for a “class of materials” results from E-influence which continues even at a higher R. A simple analytical model based on “strain intensity factor,” K₀, which contains E-influence implicitly and controls da/dN in all materials irrespective of class, is proposed. Model-predicted K₀-based theoretical values of threshold, “Idealised Master Growth Curves (IMGCs)” and mechanism transition point, all agreed excellently with experimental data for at least three classes of materials, i.e. steels, Al-alloys and Ti-alloys at extreme R-values of 0 and ≥ 0.6. The K₀-parameter concept is used here to raise the status of the analysis of the E-effect from a simple “normalisation” to that of direct data “representation”. Using NMA existing empirical relations are given some sound theoretical base. In addition to aiding in a clearer physical understanding of the FCG process, the unique IMGCs developed for different R-values are considered useful in quick, accurate and conservative life estimations, and performing failure analyses usually required in selection and design of materials.     

An equivalent domain integral method for computing crack-tip integral parameters in non-elastic, thermo-mechanical fracture

The crack-tip parameters, such asJ; T^*, ΔT^* etc, which quantify the severity of the stress/strain fields near the crack-tip in elastic-plastic materials subject to thermo-mechanical loading, are often expressed as integrals over a path that is infinitesimally close to the crack-tip (front). The integrand in such integrals involves the stress-working density, stress, strain and displacement fields arbitrarily close to the crack-tip. In a numerical analysis, such data near the crack-tip are not expected to be very accurate. This paper describes simple approaches and attendant computational algorithms, wherein, the “crack-tip integral” parameters may be evaluated through “equivalent domain integrals” (EDI) alone. It is also seen that the present (EDI) approaches form the generic basis for the popular “virtual crack extension” (VCE) methods. Several examples of thermo-mechanical fracture, including: (i) thermal loading of an elastic material, (ii) arbitrary loading/unloading/reloading of an elastic-plastic material, containing a single dominant crack, are presented to illustrate the present approach and its accuracy.     

THE REACTION OF C60F20 WITH ANTHRACENE: FORMATION OF AN OXIDISED-ANTHRACENE 1 : 1 COMPLEX

The reaction of C₆₀F₂₀ (“Saturnene”) with anthracene yields a white 1 : 1 cycloadduct (1) in which two oxygen atoms have inserted into the anthracene framework due to fullerene-catalysed oxidation; the ¹⁹F NMR spectrum of the product shows evidence of through-cage homoconjugation.     

An analysis of safety control effectiveness

The cost of injuries and “accidents” to an organisation is very important in establishing how much it should spend on safety control. Despite the usefulness of information about the cost of a company's accidents, it is not customary accounting practice to make these data available. Of the two kinds of costs incurred by a company through occupational injuries and accidents, direct costs and indirect costs; the direct costs are much easier to estimate. However, the uninsured costs are usually more critical and should be estimated by each company. The authors investigate a general model to estimate the above costs and hence to establish efficient safety control. One construction company has been a pilot for this study. By analysing actual company data for three years, it is found that the efficient safety control cost should be 1.2–1.3% of total contract costs.     

A novel gamma-ray imaging concept using “edge-on” microchannel plate detector

The “edge-on” illuminated microchannel plate (MCP) position-sensitive detector (PSD) is used for gamma-ray imaging for the first time. The superior position resolution of the MCP is combined with high detection efficiency due to the “edge-on” illumination mode. The results of imaging a 15 μCi ¹³⁷Cs source (662 keV quantum energy) are presented.     

Elaboration, microstructure and reactivity of Cr3C2 powders of different morphology

Cr₃C₂ powders have been prepared by heat-treatment of metastable chromium oxides of controlled morphology in H₂---CH₄ atmosphere. Starting with these highly reactive oxides allows formation of Cr₃C₂ at 700 °C. The reaction is pseudomorphic and different grain shapes (needles, rods, spheres and polyhedra) have been obtained. The size distribution is narrow and the grain size is generally of the order of a few tens of micrometers, but the “spheres” are in fact made up of aggregates of small platelets about 1.5 μm wide and 0.7 μm thick. The oxidation in air of the carbides was studied by thermal analyses (TGA, DTG and DSC) and was found to proceed in four steps in the 250–700 °C range. The differences observed between the carbides are related to their morphology and texture.     

HPGe detectors for low-temperature nuclear orientation

Using the Low-Temperature Nuclear Orientation (LTNO) technique one can study various interesting properties of atomic nuclei and nuclear decay which can be deduced from the measurements of the angular distributions of charged particles emitted during the decay. However, the use of particle detectors working in conditions of LTNO devices (which are generally not available commercially) is a necessary precondition for the realization of these experiments.

Planar HPGe detectors for detection of charged particles at “liquid helium” temperatures were developed and produced at NPI e . Relatively simple technology using vacuum evaporation and diffusion was employed. The performance of detectors at low temperatures was tested and their characteristics measured in a testing cryostat before using them in real experiments.

The HPGe detectors were extensively used in a whole range of LTNO experiments with various physical objectives — in offline (IKS Leuven) as well as online (CERN-ISOLDE, Louvain-la-Neuve — LISOL) experiments. In frame of the project “Meson-Exchange Enhancement of First-Forbidden Beta Transitions in the Lead Region”, the measurements of angular distribution of emitted β-particles allowed to determine experimentally the “meson-exchange currents” contribution to the β-decay. In the project “Isospin Mixing in NZ nuclei”, the isospin-forbidden β-transitions of the nuclei in region (A=50–100) were studied in order to obtain information on the isospin structure of the nuclear states. A new project looking for the possible presence of the tensor currents contribution to the β-decay is being prepared for the CERN-ISOLDE facility.     

Mechanical behaviour of a two-phase material from the behaviour of its components: Interface modelling by finite element method

In this paper, the principle of a solution for “thermal” connection between two solids is analyzed. We shows results given by the solution applied to the mechanical behaviour of a γ/γ′ two-phase material and to “artificial” structures obtained from modern techniques for epitaxial deposit. It appears that the use of a true or fictitious thermal loading constitutes a simple “connection” procedure, but is particularly coherent with the mechanics of two-phase crystalline materials with different lattice parameters. It would be interesting to apply the model to real structures, with misfit and interfacial dislocations.     

On the role of surface energy and surface stress in phase-transforming nanoparticles

The role of surface energy and surface stress has been a topic of extensive discussion since the seminal work by Gibbs [Gibbs JW. The scientific papers of J. Willard Gibbs. Vol. I: Thermodynamics. New York and Bombay:Longmans, Green, and Co; 1906; Gibbs JW. Collected works. New Haven:Yale University Press; 1957]. Both quantities have the same value for liquids, but not for solids. The distinction between these terms is of special importance for phase transforming nanoparticles (precipitates, transforming or melting/solidifying single particles), since surface quantities scale as the inverse of the particle size relative to volume quantities.

Continuum mechanics and, especially, the concept of configurational forces (stresses) provide a convenient framework for distinguishing between “surface energy”, “surface tension” and “surface stress”. Therefore, this progress report gives a rather detailed introduction into the continuum mechanics and thermodynamics of a moving surface.

The transformation conditions for the cases where an entire nanoparticle transforms suddenly and when the transformation is interface-driven are discussed. A global transformation condition for a sudden phase-transforming nanoparticle is explained. For the interface-driven transformation, the concept of configurational forces is applied to derive a local transformation condition in a material point at the phase interface.

Four examples of nanoparticles (growing precipitate, growing solid nucleus in liquid, melting particle, solidifying particle) are studied in detail. The surface energy and surface stress are shown to contribute to the thermodynamic driving force on the interface in different ways. These contributions are quantified and discussed with respect to the case of a sudden transformation of the nanoparticle.