共查询到10条相似文献,搜索用时 62 毫秒
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Younshik Chung 《Accident; analysis and prevention》2010,42(1):282-289
Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately recorded and large accident dataset from the Korean Freeway Systems. To develop the duration prediction model, this study utilizes the log-logistic accelerated failure time (AFT) metric model and a 2-year accident duration dataset from 2006 to 2007. Specifically, the 2006 dataset is utilized to develop the prediction model and then, the 2007 dataset was employed to test the temporal transferability of the 2006 model. Although the duration prediction model has limitations such as large prediction error due to the individual differences of the accident treatment teams in terms of clearing similar accidents, the results from the 2006 model yielded a reasonable prediction based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) scale. Additionally, the results of the statistical test for temporal transferability indicated that the estimated parameters in the duration prediction model are stable over time. Thus, this temporal stability suggests that the model may have potential to be used as a basis for making rational diversion and dispatching decisions in the event of an accident. Ultimately, such information will beneficially help in mitigating traffic congestion due to accidents. 相似文献
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In this paper we use an exponential power distribution to develop a bathtub failure model for repairable systems. These results are compared with those using the more familiar Weibull distribution. The analysis is extended to three types of repair scenarios: good-as-new repairs (in which the repair following a failure completely refreshes the failure intensity), bad-as-old repairs (in which the repair has no effect on the failure intensity) and imperfect repairs (in which the failure intensity is only partially reset). We apply this analysis to hydro-electric turbine data and find that an exponential power distribution produces a well-defined bathtub failure model when used with an imperfect repair assumption. We furthermore find that this bathtub model produces an improved fit over the equivalent Weibull model. 相似文献
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This paper presents the implementation of Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) controller on Real Time Application Interface (RTAI) for Linux Operating System (OS). RTAI provides real-time capability to Linux General Purpose Operating System (GPOS) over and above the capabilities of non real-time Linux environment, e.g. access to TCP/IP, graphical display and windowing systems, file and database systems. Both Type II controllers, DC voltage and current scheduling controllers, are implemented in RTAI. To create a user friendly environment, Graphical User Interface (GUI) is developed in Linux OS in user space (non real-time) using a software available from Quasar Technologies (Qt). The controller is tested on a small scale laboratory model of a Voltage Source Converter (VSC) connected in series with a transmission line. The real time controller performs well in both inductive and capacitive regions. 相似文献
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A new model considering both deformation and damage evolution under multiple viscoplastic mechanisms is used to represent high temperature creep deformation and damage of a martensitic stainless steel in a wide range of load levels. First, an experimental database is built to characterise both creep flow and damage behaviour using tests on various kinds of specimens. The parameters of the model are fitted to the results and to literature data for long term creep exposure. An attempt is made to use the model to predict creep time to failure up to 105 h. 相似文献
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Thermal barrier coatings (TBC) are widely used to prevent transient high temperature attack and allow components high durability. Due to strong inhomogeneous material properties the TBC failure often initiates near the interface between the brittle oxide layer and the ductile substrate. A reliable prediction of the TBC failure requires detailed information about the crack tip field and the consequent fracture criteria. In the present paper both cohesive model and gradient plasticity are used to simulate the failure process and to study interdependence of the interface stress distribution with the specific fracture energies. Computations confirm that combination of the two models is able to simulate different failure mechanisms in the TBC system. The computational model has the potential to give a realistic prediction of the crack propagation process. 相似文献
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M. N. Regul’skii 《Strength of Materials》2006,38(3):299-306
We present experimental results of fatigue tests of AMg6 aluminum alloy model specimens-plates with a single notch, subjected
to fully reversed and asymmetric cyclic axial loading. The experimentally determined lives of model specimens are used as
the results of the base experiment for predicting the fatigue strength characteristics of large-scale cylindrical shells with
circumferential ring-shaped stress raisers loaded by axial forces of a cyclic nature. A numerical study has been performed
of the statistical model adopted for predicting the fatigue life of such shells.
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Translated from Problemy Prochnosti, No. 3, pp. 112–122, May–June, 2006. 相似文献
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This paper investigated the failure mechanism of fibre composite T-piece specimens under mixed mode loading conditions by simulation of multi-delamination using a modified cohesive model with a coupled damage scale and added thermal effects. A mixed mode load includes pulling and bending. Multi-delamination was simulated in the way modelling the dominated multi-delamination in the deltoid region of T-piece. Failure predictions in the mixed mode loading case, individual bending and pulling case together with part of tested solutions were presented in this paper. It was exposed that the interaction between pulling and bending in the mixed mode loading case plays an important role in the failure mechanism of T-piece. The effect of thermal initial crack in the deltoid of T-piece on prediction of the capacity to resist mixed mode loading was also investigated. A significant effect of thermal initial crack on delamination was found in the mixed mode loading case. This investigation supplied important information for the design of T-piece related composite components under mixed mode loading conditions. 相似文献
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Some life tests are terminated with few or no failures. In such cases, a recent approach is to obtain degradation measurements of product performance that may contain some useful information about product reliability. Generally degradation paths of products are modeled by a nonlinear regression model with random coefficients. If we can obtain the estimates of parameters under the model, then the time‐to‐failure distribution can be estimated. In some cases, the patterns of a few degradation paths are different from those of most degradation paths in a test. Therefore, this study develops a weighted method based on fuzzy clustering procedure to robust estimation of the underlying parameters and time‐to‐failure distribution. The method will be studied on a real data set. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Esra Bas 《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》2011,96(7):748-756
In this paper, a general framework for child injury prevention and a multi-objective, multi-dimensional mixed 0-1 knapsack model were developed to determine the optimal time to introduce preventive measures against child injuries. Furthermore, the model maximises the prevention of injuries with the highest risks for each age period by combining preventive measures and supervision as well as satisfying budget limits and supervision time constraints. The risk factors for each injury, variable, and time period were based on risk priority numbers (RPNs) obtained from failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) methodology, and these risk factors were incorporated into the model as objective function parameters. A numerical experiment based on several different situations was conducted, revealing that the model provided optimal timing of preventive measures for child injuries based on variables considered. 相似文献