多粒度拓展语言层级群组DEMATEL改进方法*

决策试行与评价实验室方法(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)作为一种面向复杂社会经济系统问题的因素分析算法,近年来受到国内外学者的广泛关注。为解决DEMATEL方法在分析复杂不确定社会经济系统时,由于专家知识背景不同而导致的群组专家选择多粒度评价标度进行偏好信息判断的问题,引入二元语义模型表达群组专家的偏好判断信息,提出一种基于拓展语言层级模型的多粒度群组DEMATEL改进方法。改进方法先对群组专家给出的不同粒度评价信息构造二元语义直接影响矩阵,再利用拓展语言层级模型进行归一化处理,并通过二元语义集合算子进行群组信息的集成,进而运用DEMATEL方法进行系统因素的因果关系分析与决策。最后,将改进方法应用于中国汽车零部件再制造的内部障碍因素分析,案例应用结果表明,所提方法在实践中是切实可行的。     

基于证据理论的群组DEMATEL改进方法

在群组DEMATEL（决策试验与评价实验室）分析过程中,科学合理地集成群组专家意见是保证群决策有效性的技术核心。然而现有文献不仅没有对群组专家意见的集成机理作出科学合理的解释,而且还存在单专家对因素关系判断过于主观武断的问题。为克服上述缺陷,在概述传统群组DEMATEL及系统分析其缺陷的基础上,提出了一种基于证据理论的群组DEMATEL改进方法。该方法优点在于：一方面以信度函数反映决策信息的不完备性,并通过Dempster组合规则有效集成群组专家意见;另一方面以整体判断思想实现群组专家证据信息的交互。实例验证结果表明,改进方法是科学可行的,有着较强的实际应用可操作性。     

基于非线性复杂系统观的直觉模糊变权多属性决策方法

为克服传统直觉模糊多属性决策方法所存在的采用固定不变的权重体系难以反映复杂系统因素之间蕴含的非线性联结机理、尚未考虑方案之间的内在关联性、对于决策主体风险偏好的异质性关注不足等缺陷,依据非线性复杂系统思维观,通过将属性因素变权、方案因素关联和决策主体风险态度合理引入三方面有机融合,提出一种直觉模糊变权多属性决策方法.该方法运用决策试行与评价实验室(DEMATEL)算法确定出不同方案情境下变化的属性权重,且通过综合集成集对势理论和风险态度系数构建出新的记分函数,并证明了其相关性质.最后,通过案例应用及对比分析验证了所提出方法的科学性和可行性.     

基于直觉梯形模糊TOPSIS的多属性群决策方法

提出一种改进的逼近理想解排序(TOPSIS)方法,即直觉梯形模糊TOPSIS多属性群决策方法。首先,应用直觉梯形模糊数形式表示方案属性偏好和属性权重信息且专家权重完全未知;然后,利用直觉梯形模糊数间距离测度和期望值及直觉梯形模糊加权平均算子来确定决策者权重信息和属性权重信息;进而给出直觉梯形模糊环境下方案优选的算法;最后,通过算例进一步说明了该直觉梯形模糊TOPSIS方法的有效性。     

一种多维集成直觉模糊信息的信任评价方法

信任是保证在线服务质量的前提。针对电子商务环境存在的复杂性、模糊性和不确定性等因素,引入直觉模糊理论,提出了一种多维集成直觉模糊信息的信任评价方法,给出了两类信任反馈属性集成直觉模糊信息的方法,通过直觉模糊熵确定属性权重,并利用直觉加权算数平均算子求出实体的综合直觉模糊数,从而全面、客观和细腻地反映信任的模糊性和不确定性。计算实例和仿真实验表明,基于多维集成直觉模糊信息的信任评估方法是可行的,通过对风险偏好因子的灵敏度分析,发现服务请求者风险偏好不同,则评估的服务提供商的信任得分也不同;同时也验证了该方法可以有效地抑制恶意节点的攻击,为电子商务环境下信任评价的研究提供了新思路。     

基于直觉模糊熵的群组聚类决策方法

针对直觉模糊群决策问题,依据专家的直觉模糊评价信息,利用直觉模糊相似度和相异度构造直觉模糊相似矩阵,为了得到合理的专家聚类结果,设计风险参数并提出聚类阈值变化率分析方法,综合聚类结果和直觉模糊熵对各专家进行组合赋权。提出基于离散正态分布的位置权重确定方法,构造直觉模糊集混合加权集结算子对各专家关于方案集的直觉模糊评价信息进行综合集成。结合算例验证了方法的可行性和有效性。     

多属性群决策的直觉梯形模糊数法

采用直觉梯形模糊数刻画专家的评价信息,提出一种新的多属性群决策方法.定义了直觉梯形模糊数的期望值、预期得分、有序加权集成算子和混合集成算子;建立了基于直觉梯形模糊数的多属性群决策模型;通过混合集成算子得到方案的群体综合评估值,根据期望值和预期得分给出群决策结果.实例分析验证了所提出方法的有效性.     

多方案DEMATEL的偏好交互与融合方法研究

为有效应对多方案DEMATEL在实际决策情景中涌现的个体选择偏好、流程导向偏好与交互学习偏好三者交互与融合问题,针对现有单方案方法在构造直接判断矩阵过程中忽视专家整体偏好一致性的不足,解析决策过程中三类偏好交互影响的系统复杂性,创新性地从偏好表征有效性、决策过程可控性及专家交互有序效性三个维度形成偏好交互与融合策略的整体思考。相对现有研究的贡献在于:关注多方案情景的多评价对象、多决策目标和多要素集合特征,依据整体决策信息判定策略和成对要素比较信息序列转换策略,创造性提出初始判断信息的整体判断偏好一致性检验方法和多轮次非一致性决策信息调整方案。针对某一众创空间内三个创业团队开展关键影响要素识别,实例验证结果表明上述所构建的方法和策略有效可行,能够形成更具参考价值的多方案对比分析结论,对响应复杂决策情景中的多主体、多层次、多偏好决策困境具有一定参考价值。     

考虑直觉模糊的多指标人岗双边匹配决策方法

针对现实生活中人岗双边匹配决策问题的特点,基于直觉模糊理论,构建了一种具有不同信息类型的人岗双向选择的多指标评价双边匹配决策模型,并提出了相应的决策方法。通过构造人岗双方匹配满意度计算规则,将包含直觉模糊偏好信息的人岗双边主体评价信息转化为匹配满意度;通过对所有标准下的满意度矩阵的集结,构造人岗双方的满意度矩阵。在此基础上,以人岗双方主体可接受最低水平为约束,构建了一个使双方主体满意度最大为目标的人岗双边匹配多目标决策优化模型。通过一个人岗双边匹配问题的案例证明了该方法的合理性。     

决策信息为区间二元语义的双向专家权重确定方法

针对区间二元语义多属性群决策中的专家客观赋权问题,提出了一种区间二元语义群决策的双向专家权重确定方法。首先设置专家初始权重,通过专家个体与群体决策矩阵的偏差距离计算专家的偏离权重,再通过专家的直觉模糊熵计算专家的模糊熵权重,结合偏离权重和模糊熵权重,经过多次迭代后得到稳定的专家双向权重。该权重既反映了专家偏好信息与群体偏好信息的一致性,同时也反映了专家对决策问题的了解程度。最后,实例验证了该算法的可行性与有效性。     

专家交互情境下不完备群组DEMATEL决策方法

为克服现有群组DEMATEL存在的尚未考虑群组专家之间的信息交互、对于不完备专家判断信息的推断机理不明确等缺陷,基于社交网络中的信任关系理论和凝聚层次聚类理论,通过给出不完备群组DEMATEL初始直接影响矩阵残缺值的推断方法和专家交互情境下群组DEMATEL直接影响矩阵信息修正方法,提出专家交互情境下不完备群组DEMATEL决策方法的实现步骤.最后,通过算例对比分析反映出通过专家多轮次交互,群组专家之间的共识度以及决策结果的可靠性持续提升,从而验证了所提出方法的科学性和可行性.     

基于模糊判断矩阵的两阶段群决策方法

针对多属性群决策问题,提出一种两阶段决策分析方法。通过分析积型模糊一致性判断矩阵和模糊判断矩阵的排序向量之间的偏差,建立并求解一个规划模型,得到专家模糊判断矩阵的排序向量。由最小化专家模糊判断矩阵的排序向量与专家群组排序向量的偏差,再次建立并求解一个规划模型,得到反映专家群组偏好的排序向量,从而得出基于模糊判断矩阵的两阶段群决策方法。通过2个算例说明了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

Compatibility of interval fuzzy preference relations with the COWA operator and its application to group decision making

We develop a new compatibility for the interval fuzzy preference relations based on the continuous ordered weighted averaging (COWA) operator and use it to determine the weights of experts in group decision making (GDM). We define some concepts of the compatibility degree and the compatibility index for the two interval fuzzy preference relations based on the COWA operator. We study some desirable properties of the compatibility index and investigate the relationship between the each expert’s interval fuzzy preference relation and the synthetic interval fuzzy preference relation. The prominent characteristic of the compatibility index based on the COWA operator is that it can deal with the compatibility of all the arguments by using a controlled parameter considering the attitude of decision maker rather than the compatibility of the simply two points in intervals. To determine the experts’ weights in the GDM with the interval fuzzy preference relations, we propose an optimal model based on the criterion of minimizing the compatibility index. In the end, we give a numerical example to develop the new approach to GDM with interval fuzzy preference relations.     

基于判断矩阵的专家模糊核聚类组合赋权方法

研究群决策中专家赋权问题.实际决策问题中,由于客体信息自身存在的不完备性和不确定性以及人们描述过程中的模糊性,更适合采用模糊聚类的分析方法,为此提出一种基于判断矩阵的专家模糊核聚类赋权方法.该方法运用模糊核聚类理论对专家排序向量进行分类,根据分类结果、判断矩阵一致性和排序向量的熵对各专家进行组合赋权.算例表明,所提出的方法是可行且有效的.     

Extension of the DEMATEL method in an uncertain linguistic environment

The decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is a useful tool for analyzing correlations among factors using crisp values. However, the crisp values are inadequate to model real-life situations due to the fuzziness and uncertainty that are frequently involved in judgments of experts. The aim of this paper is to extend the DEMATEL method to an uncertain linguistic environment. In this paper, the correlation information among factors provided by experts is in the form of uncertain linguistic terms. A formula is first presented to transform correlation information from uncertain linguistic terms to trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then, we aggregate the transformed correlation information of each expert into group information using the operations of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The importance and classification of factors are determined via fuzzy matrix operations. Furthermore, a causal diagram is constructed to vividly show the different roles of factors. Finally, an example is used to illustrate the procedure of the proposed method.     

模糊WINGS视角下的ANP加权矩阵新构造方法

构造因素集加权矩阵是ANP系统未加权超矩阵到加权超矩阵转化的一个关键技术。然而从已有的三种构造方法看,两两比较法比较机理混乱,而等权矩阵假设构造法通常是无效的,并且基于DEMATEL（决策试行与评价实验室）的构造方法不仅存在忽视因素集自身强度的内在不足,而且也难以反映专家在对因素集之间影响关系判断时存在的“不精确性”。为克服上述缺陷,提出一种模糊WINGS（加权影响情景下的非线性测度体系）视角下的ANP因素集加权矩阵新构造方法。该方法一方面给出改进后的模糊DELPHI决策程序,充分考虑了专家判断过程中的“不精确性”。另一方面,系统提出模糊WINGS的方法思路,在系统因素集影响关系判别时充分考虑了因素集的自我影响强度,使因素集直接影响矩阵的构造更为合理。实例对比验证结果表明,该方法是科学合理的,有着较强的实践应用可操作性。     

Group decision making with fuzzy linguistic preference relations via cooperative games method

When we consider the weighting approach for group decision making with fuzzy linguistic preference relations, the groupment of experts has merely been studied. In this paper, a novel weighting approach on the basis of cooperative games method is developed. The group decision error matrix is built to reflect the deviations of all experts with given initial weighting vector. An iterative algorithm is designed to lower the sum of the decision error so that a final convergence result can be obtained. The advantage of the weighting algorithm is that it can consider the contribution of each expert and reduce the sum of decision error with increasing iteration numbers. Then an optimization model using triangular fuzzy numbers as alternatives’ weights is constructed, whose results are used to rank the alternatives. Finally, a numerical example of subjective evaluation of vehicle sound quality is considered to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed weighting approach in the group decision making problem.     

Development of an interval type-2 fuzzy sets based hierarchical MADM model by combining DEMATEL and TOPSIS

In this study, a new interval type-2 fuzzy multiple-attribute decision making model is developed by integrating Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL). The proposed model utilizes hierarchical decomposition approach for reducing inherent complexity of the decision making problems. Additionally, interdependencies among problem attributes are taken into consideration by using interval type-2 fuzzy DEMATEL method. Finally, ranking orders of the alternatives are obtained by hierarchical interval type-2 fuzzy TOPSIS method. As there are several forms of interactions among criteria in real life settings, decision makers should be provided with the expert and intelligent systems which can overcome the preferential independence assumption. The proposed method is able to model causal dependencies by using interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy sets. The proposed method is implemented in a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT)-based strategy selection problem.     

Fuzzy multiattribute group decision making based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets and evidential reasoning methodology

In this paper, we propose a new fuzzy multiattribute group decision making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets and the evidential reasoning methodology. First, the proposed method uses the evidential reasoning methodology to aggregate each decision maker’s decision matrix and the weights of the attributes to get the aggregated decision matrix of each decision maker. Then, it uses the obtained aggregated decision matrices of the experts, the weights of the experts and the evidential reasoning methodology to get the aggregated intuitionistic fuzzy value of each alternative. Finally, it calculates the transformed value of the obtained intuitionistic fuzzy value of each alternative. The smaller the transformed value, the better the preference order of the alternative. The proposed method can overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods for fuzzy multiattribute group decision making in intuitionistic fuzzy environments.     

Gaining consensus in a moderated group: A model with a twofold feedback mechanism

The group Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is an effective tool to collect experts’ wisdom to evaluate complex decision making problems. Because judgments are always diverse in the real world, it is crucial to adequately support the consensus reaching process. In this paper, we develop a convergent group AHP consensus reaching model with a twofold feedback mechanism, which consists of both a judgment and a weighting feedback mechanism. In each round of this dynamic and interactive model, the most incompatible expert is asked to revise her judgment according to the judgment feedback mechanism. If the expert rejects the suggestion, her weight of importance will be adjusted downward based on the compatibility within the group by the weighting feedback mechanism. The proof of convergence of this consensus reaching model with the twofold mechanism is also provided and discussed. Hence this proposed consensus reaching process supports the leader or client in reaching a successful decision with a dispersed group of experts. The proposed consensus reaching model is applied to the brake pad supplier selection problem of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. The empirical example demonstrates that the proposed methodology provides an operational decision framework for companies to select suitable suppliers in the supplier involvement under the environment of collaborative product development (SICPD) through its successful application in that context