基于图卷积网络的短时交通速度预测

交通预测是构建智能交通系统的重要技术,实时准确的交通预测有利于规划路线,提高出行效率。为提高交通速度预测精度,提出一种基于图卷积网络的短时交通速度预测模型。首先对交通速度数据进行时空特征分析,然后结合数据空间特性构造可学习的邻接矩阵来建立图卷积网络,同时考虑到交通数据的时间特性,因此在图卷积的基础上又添加了长短期记忆网络和注意力机制来共同构建预测模型。实验结果表明由于同时考虑了交通速度数据的时空特性,本文模型均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分比误差均小于传统模型和单个模型,验证了提出的模型预测精确度更高。     

基于深度学习的城市轨道交通短时客流量预测

我国城市轨道交通已进入快速发展期,准确预测城轨交通短时客流量,对于城轨运营安全、运营效率及运营成本具有重要意义.城轨交通短时客流量由于具有强随机性、周期性、相关性及非线性的特征,浅层模型的预测精度并不理想.对此,基于深度信念网络(DBN)和支持向量回归机(SVM),提出城轨交通短时客流深层预测模型(DBN-P/GSVM),同时基于遗传算法(GA)和粒子群算法(PSO)实现SVM的参数寻优.最后,对成都地铁火车北站客流量预测进行实例分析.结果表明,DBN-P/GSVM深度预测模型在均方误差、均方根误差、绝对误差均值及绝对百分比误差均值等方面均优于浅层模型——GA-SVM模型、PSO-SVM模型和BP神经网络模型,以及深层模型长短期记忆网络(LSTM)与LSTM-Softmax.     

汽车智能防撞自适应控制研究与仿真

针对汽车防撞模糊控制模型不能自动调整参数的缺点,建立汽车防撞自适应模糊推理模型。采用混合学习算法对自适应模糊推理模型的前提参数和结论参数进行辨识,以加速收敛。经模拟训练和仿真输出结果证明,该模型能够对汽车防撞模糊控制器隶属函数和模糊规则进行优化,较好地实现紧急报警情况下的汽车防撞自适应控制。     

Short-term freeway traffic parameter prediction: Application of grey system theory models

Intelligent transportation systems applications require accurate and robust prediction of traffic parameters such as speed, travel time, and flow. However, traffic exhibits sudden shifts due to various factors such as weather, accidents, driving characteristics, and demand surges, which adversely affect the performance of the prediction models. This paper studies possible applications and accuracy levels of three Grey System theory models for short-term traffic speed and travel time predictions: first order single variable Grey model (GM(1,1)), GM(1,1) with Fourier error corrections (EFGM), and the Grey Verhulst model with Fourier error corrections (EFGVM). Grey models are tested on datasets from California and Virginia. They are compared to nonlinear time series models. Grey models are found to be simple, adaptive, able to deal better with abrupt parameter changes, and not requiring many data points for prediction updates. Based on the sample data used, Grey models consistently demonstrate lower prediction errors over all the time series improving the accuracy on average about 50% in Root Mean Squared Errors and Mean Absolute Percent Errors.     

An improved fuzzy neural network based on T–S model

An improved fuzzy neural network based on Takagi–Sugeno (T–S) model is proposed in this paper. According to characteristics of samples spatial distribution the number of linguistic values of every input and the means and deviations of corresponding membership functions are determined. So the reasonable fuzzy space partition is got. Further a subtractive clustering algorithm is used to derive cluster centers from samples. With the parameters of linguistic values the cluster centers are fuzzified to get a more concise rule set with importance for every rule. Thus redundant rules in the fuzzy space are deleted. Then antecedent parts of all rules determine how a fuzzification layer and an inference layer connect. Next, weights of the defuzzification layer are initialized by a least square algorithm. After the network is built, a hybrid method combining a gradient descent algorithm and a least square algorithm is applied to tune the parameters in it. Simultaneous, an adaptive learning rate which is identified from input-state stability theory is adopted to insure stability of the network. The improved T–S fuzzy neural network (ITSFNN) has a compact structure, high training speed, good simulation precision, and generalization ability. To evaluate the performance of the ITSFNN, we experiment with two nonlinear examples. A comparative analysis reveals the proposed T–S fuzzy neural network exhibits a higher accuracy and better generalization ability than ordinary T–S fuzzy neural network. Finally, it is applied to predict markup percent of the construction bidding system and has a better prediction capability in comparison to some previous models.     

A Hybrid Learning Method for the Data-Driven Design of Linguistic Dynamic Systems

In lots of data based prediction or modeling applications, uncertainties and/or noises in the observed data cannot be avoided. In such cases, it is more preferable and reasonable to provide linguistic (fuzzy) predicted results described by fuzzy memberships or fuzzy sets instead of the crisp estimates depicted by numbers. Linguistic dynamic system (LDS) provides a powerful tool for yielding linguistic (fuzzy) results. However, it is still difficult to construct LDS models from observed data. To solve this issue, this paper first presents a simplified LDS whose inputoutput mapping can be determined by closed-form formulas. Then, a hybrid learning method is proposed to construct the data-driven LDS model. The proposed hybrid learning method firstly generates fuzzy rules by the subtractive clustering method, then carries out further optimization of centers of the consequent triangular fuzzy sets in the fuzzy rules, and finally adopts multiobjective optimization algorithm to determine the left and right end-points of the consequent triangular fuzzy sets. The proposed approach is successfully applied to three real-world prediction applications which are: prediction of energy consumption of a building, forecasting of the traffic flow, and prediction of the wind speed. Simulation results show that the uncertainties in the data can be effectively captured by the linguistic (fuzzy) estimates. It can also be extended to some other prediction or modeling problems, in which observed data have high levels of uncertainties.      

基于云模型的短时交通流预测方法研究

为了提高短时交通流预测的精确性,提出了一种基于云模型的短时交通流智能预测方法.该方法利用云模型拟合交通流,分别用历史交通流和当前交通流建立历史云和当前云,共同生成预测云,用采预测交通流.结合广州市某交叉口交通流量采集数据,进行了仿真试验,以平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)两个指标来衡量预测效果,结果表明了该预测方法具有较高的预测精度.该方法既考虑到交通流历史变化,又顾及交通流实时变化,同时将交通流做整体性处理,很好地避开了噪声引起的预测误差问题,兼顾了预测精度和实时性的要求.     

Wind Speed Prediction Using Chicken Swarm Optimization with Deep Learning Model

High precision and reliable wind speed forecasting have become a challenge for meteorologists. Convective events, namely, strong winds, thunderstorms, and tornadoes, along with large hail, are natural calamities that disturb daily life. For accurate prediction of wind speed and overcoming its uncertainty of change, several prediction approaches have been presented over the last few decades. As wind speed series have higher volatility and nonlinearity, it is urgent to present cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) technology. In this aspect, this paper presents an intelligent wind speed prediction using chicken swarm optimization with the hybrid deep learning (IWSP-CSODL) method. The presented IWSP-CSODL model estimates the wind speed using a hybrid deep learning and hyperparameter optimizer. In the presented IWSP-CSODL model, the prediction process is performed via a convolutional neural network (CNN) based long short-term memory with autoencoder (CBLSTMAE) model. To optimally modify the hyperparameters related to the CBLSTMAE model, the chicken swarm optimization (CSO) algorithm is utilized and thereby reduces the mean square error (MSE). The experimental validation of the IWSP-CSODL model is tested using wind series data under three distinct scenarios. The comparative study pointed out the better outcomes of the IWSP-CSODL model over other recent wind speed prediction models.     

Fuzzy adaptive predictive flow control of ATM network traffic

In order to exploit the nonlinear time-varying property of network traffic, the traffic flow from controlled sources is described by a fuzzy autoregressive moving-average model with auxiliary input (fuzzy ARMAX process), with the traffic flow from uncontrolled sources (i.e., cross traffic) being described as external disturbances. In order to overcome the difficulty of the transmission delay in the design of congestion control, the fuzzy traffic model is translated to an equivalent fuzzy predictive traffic model. A fuzzy adaptive flow control scheme is proposed to avoid congestion at high utilization while maintaining good quality of service. By use of fuzzy adaptive prediction technique, the difficulties in congestion control design due to nonlinearity, time-varying characteristics, and large propagation delay can be overcome by the proposed adaptive traffic control method. A comparative evaluation is also given to show the superiority of the proposed method.     

A learning-based comprehensive evaluation model for traffic data quality in intelligent transportation systems

Human motion modelling has attracted more and more attentions in various industrial fields with the event of information technology. Previous studies focus on capturing, animating, understanding and modelling human gestures or physical activities. However, in many applications such as Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), the traffic data quality (TDQ) is becoming a critical issue which can has great influence on the efficiency of the modelling. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the traffic data quality (TDQ) from the large amount of detectors and traffic flow data in the modelling of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). We first introduce four error indices of an occupancy speed model and an occupancy flow model as model evaluation indices, and two indices from experts as non-model evaluation indices. Then, we propose a comprehensive evaluation model (CEM) for TDQ. Furthermore, we develop two algorithms for training the parameters in CEM based on the least square method (LSM) and the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). We compare the proposed algorithms with the real-world traffic flow data which has been collected on Beijing ring-roads and connected lines. The experimental results show that the ANFIS-based learning method outperforms in most scenarios and ensures the evaluation error less than 10 %, which can significantly improve the efficiency of identifying traffic flow detectors with low data quality.     

基于CNN-LSTM-PSO的私有云故障检测

有效对私有云系统进行故障检测对于保障IT系统稳定性及开展可靠性信息活动具有重要的实际意义。为此从私有云系统的历史趋势数据出发,将卷积网络(CNN)和长短期记忆(LSTM)循环神经网络结合,提出了基于粒子群优化算法(PSO)的CNN-LSTM-PSO的混合模型,实现对私有云的故障检测。采用X11算法等技术对数据进行预处理,使用CNN网络提取监控指标时序数据的相关特征信息,并通过训练LSTM网络参数建立CNN-LSTM预测模型,设计了PSO算法对预测模型进行参数选优,减小预测误差,并以高斯正态分布确定阈值范围,实现故障的精准检测。通过和传统单一预测模型以及现有的一些组合预测模型的对比,CNN-LSTM-PSO模型预测后结果的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均百分比误差都低于其余模型。实验结果验证了模型在预测效果上具备更高的精度和更快的预测速度,在私有云的故障检测中精确性和实时性都具有良好效果。     

An efficient compensatory neuro-fuzzy system and its applications

In this study, a compensatory neuro-fuzzy system (CNFS) is proposed. The compensatory fuzzy reasoning method uses adaptive fuzzy operations of a neuro-fuzzy system to make the fuzzy logic system more adaptive and effective. Furthermore, an online learning algorithm that consists of structure learning and parameter learning is proposed to automatically construct the CNFS. The structure learning is based on the fuzzy similarity measure to determine the number of fuzzy rules, and the parameter learning is based on backpropagation algorithm to adjust the parameters. The simulation results have shown that (1) the CNFS model converges quickly and (2) the CNFS model has a lower root mean square (RMS) error than other models.     

Type-2 fuzzy hybrid expert system for prediction of tardiness in scheduling of steel continuous casting process

This paper addresses an interval type-2 fuzzy (IT2F) hybrid expert system in order to predict the amount of tardiness where tardiness variables are represented by interval type-2 membership functions. For this purpose, IT2F disjunctive normal forms and fuzzy conjunctive normal forms are utilized in the inference engine. The main contribution of this paper is to present the IT2F hybrid expert system, which is the combination of the Mamdani and Sugeno methods. In order to predict the future amount of tardiness for continuous casting operation in a steel company in Canada, an autoregressive moving average model is used in the consequents of the rules. Parameters of the system are tuned by applying Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System. This method is compared with IT2F Takagi–Sugeno–Kang method in MATLAB, multiple-regression, and two other Type-1 fuzzy methods in literature. The results of computing the mean square error of these methods show that our proposed method has less error and high accuracy in comparison with other methods.     

Detection of abnormal traffic video images based on high-dimensional fuzzy geometry

Detection of abnormal video images of transportation is to find out video images that contain abnormities among all images of transportation using video and image processing and analyzing techniques. It is an important component of intelligent transportation system, which can not only reduce the workload of traffic managers, but also effectively improve the efficiency of traffic management. However, video images of transportation in practice usually have complex backgrounds, and current detecting algorithms of traffic abnormity sometimes become ineffective due to interference factors such as noises and affine transformation (illumination variation, target occlusion, scale changes and view changes, etc.). In order to overcome these interference factors and fuzzy uncertainties in image representation, as well as improve the accuracy of traffic images representation, this study explored the representation methods of traffic images using fuzzy geometry theory on the basis of fuzzy uncertainties occurring during the process of imaging, transmission and processing of images; moreover, this study also put forward two kinds of representation algorithms of traffic images, and analyzed and verified effectiveness of representation algorithms based on theories and experiments.     

Forecasting wind speed using empirical mode decomposition and Elman neural network

Because of the chaotic nature and intrinsic complexity of wind speed, it is difficult to describe the moving tendency of wind speed and accurately forecast it. In our study, a novel EMD–ENN approach, a hybrid of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Elman neural network (ENN), is proposed to forecast wind speed. First, the original wind speed datasets are decomposed into a collection of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residue by EMD, yielding relatively stationary sub-series that can be readily modeled by neural networks. Second, both IMF components and residue are applied to establish the corresponding ENN models. Then, each sub-series is predicted using the corresponding ENN. Finally, the prediction values of the original wind speed datasets are calculated by the sum of the forecasting values of every sub-series. Moreover, in the ENN modeling process, the neuron number of the input layer is determined by a partial autocorrelation function. Four prediction cases of wind speed are used to test the performance of the proposed hybrid approach. Compared with the persistent model, back-propagation neural network, and ENN, the simulation results show that the proposed EMD–ENN model consistently has the minimum statistical error of the mean absolute error, mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error. Thus, it is concluded that the proposed approach is suitable for wind speed prediction.     

基于IPSO的模糊神经网络优化及交通流量预测

在基于模糊神经网络的交通流量预测中,神经网络的各节点参数优化是最关键的。采用粒子群算法优化模糊神经网络的参数。针对粒子群算法易于陷入局部最优的缺点,提出一种改进的粒子群优化算法,并将改进的算法用于路口交通流量预测。仿真结果表明,该算法的收敛速度和预测精度优于传统粒子群算法、BP算法,提高了交通流量预测的精度和速度。     

Design for Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks Based on Genetic Algorithms

A novel hybrid learning algorithm based on a genetic algorithm to design a growing fuzzy neural network, named self-organizing fuzzy neural network based on genetic algorithms (SOFNNGA), to implement Takagi-Sugeno (TS) type fuzzy models is proposed in this paper. A new adding method based on geometric growing criterion and the epsiv-completeness of fuzzy rules is first used to generate the initial structure. Then a hybrid algorithm based on genetic algorithms, backpropagation, and recursive least squares estimation is used to adjust all parameters including the number of fuzzy rules. This has two steps: First, the linear parameter matrix is adjusted, and second, the centers and widths of all membership functions are modified. The GA is introduced to identify the least important neurons, i.e., the least important fuzzy rules. Simulations are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm     

基于检测器优化选择的短时交通流预测

针对交通流短期预测未考虑交通检测器配置的不足,提出了一种基于检测器优化选择的短时交通流预测算法。以预测的均方误差最小为目标函数,通过遗传算法优化选择合适的检测器,以小波神经网络作为预测算法进行短时交通流预测。美国I-84高速公路实测数据的测试结果表明该算法与传统预测方法相比具有更高的预测精度,是一种有效的短时交通流预测方法。     

MPEG VBR video traffic modeling and classification using fuzzytechnique

We present an approach for MPEG variable bit rate (VBR) video modeling and classification using fuzzy techniques. We demonstrate that a type-2 fuzzy membership function, i.e., a Gaussian MF with uncertain variance, is most appropriate to model the log-value of I/P/B frame sizes in MPEG VBR video. The fuzzy c-means (FCM) method is used to obtain the mean and standard deviation (std) of T/P/B frame sizes when the frame category is unknown. We propose to use type-2 fuzzy logic classifiers (FLCs) to classify video traffic using compressed data. Five fuzzy classifiers and a Bayesian classifier are designed for video traffic classification, and the fuzzy classifiers are compared against the Bayesian classifier. Simulation results show that a type-2 fuzzy classifier in which the input is modeled as a type-2 fuzzy set and antecedent membership functions are modeled as type-2 fuzzy sets performs the best of the five classifiers when the testing video product is not included in the training products and a steepest descent algorithm is used to tune its parameters     

Prediction and identification using wavelet-based recurrent fuzzy neural networks

This paper presents a wavelet-based recurrent fuzzy neural network (WRFNN) for prediction and identification of nonlinear dynamic systems. The proposed WRFNN model combines the traditional Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy model and the wavelet neural networks (WNN). This paper adopts the nonorthogonal and compactly supported functions as wavelet neural network bases. Temporal relations embedded in the network are caused by adding some feedback connections representing the memory units into the second layer of the feedforward wavelet-based fuzzy neural networks (WFNN). An online learning algorithm, which consists of structure learning and parameter learning, is also presented. The structure learning depends on the degree measure to obtain the number of fuzzy rules and wavelet functions. Meanwhile, the parameter learning is based on the gradient descent method for adjusting the shape of the membership function and the connection weights of WNN. Finally, computer simulations have demonstrated that the proposed WRFNN model requires fewer adjustable parameters and obtains a smaller rms error than other methods.