网络距离预测技术

首先概述了网络距离预测的基本概念,从不同角度对网络距离预测技术进行了分类讨论.然后根据预测机理的差异将现有网络距离预测技术划分为基于虚拟坐标的预测技术、基于网络拓扑结构的预测技术以及网络邻近度估计技术.在对典型的预测技术进行分析对比后,详细综述了网络距离预测的研究现状,对现有的各种预测技术以及研究成果进行了分析,指出了需要进一步研究的问题.最后探讨了网络距离预测技术的未来发展方向.     

图书文献经费的支持向量机组合预测

对灰色、神经网络和SVM（支持向量机）的3个预测模型进行了研究,以某图书馆1996年～2003年图书文献总经费为例,对图书文献总经费进行了预测,经过比较,SVM的预测方法精度较高。在分析组合预测特性的基础上,提出了对灰色系统、神经网络和SVM三种预测方法结果进行了线性组合预测方法和SVM的组合预测方法。与单一预测方法结果和线性组合预测进行对比,SVM组合预测方法比较精确。     

电力负荷的预测方法的建模与仿真

研究电力负荷预测准确性问题,电力负荷与天气、经济、假期等多种因素密切相关,变化规律具有周期性和随机性,单一预测方法不能全面进行准确预测,导致电力负荷预测精度低.为了提高电力负荷预测精度,提出一种ARMA和BP神经网络的组合预测方法.首先采用ARMA模型对电力负荷的周期性变化规律进行预测,然后结合BP神经网络方法对电力负荷的随机变化规律进行预测,最后将2种预测结果进行相加,得到组合模型的电力负荷预测结果.采用某市电力负荷数据对组合模型预测性能进行验证,实验结果表明,组合模型充分利用了单一模型优势,使电力负荷的预测提高了精度,为电力负荷的预测提供了有效手段.     

船用燃气轮机状态趋势预测算法研究

燃气轮机是船舶动力系统的重要组成部分,为了提高船舶性能,需对其进行状态趋势预测;首先研究了常用的几种预测算法,总结了各自优缺点和适用范围,对常见预测方法的技术特点进行了详细分析;为提高船用燃气轮机状态预测精度,提出了组合优选和虚拟预测的思想,通过研究组合预测方法实现了燃汽轮机状态的趋势预测,验证了组合优选和虚拟预测的可操作性和正确性,将预测结果同直接预测相比较,验证了其优越性。     

基于相空间重构的自适应残差修正支持向量回归预测算法

针对模拟电路故障预测存在的非线性时间序列预测问题和传统支持向量回归（SVR）多步预测时出现的误差累积问题,提出了一种基于相空间重构的自适应残差修正SVR预测算法。首先,分析了SVR多步预测方法对时间序列趋势预测的意义和多步预测导致的误差积累问题;其次,将相空间重构技术引入SVR预测中,对表征模拟电路状态的时间序列进行相空间重构,并进而进行SVR预测;然后,在对多步预测过程中产生的误差累积序列进行二次SVR预测的基础上,实现对初始预测误差的自适应修正;最后,对所提算法进行了预测仿真验证。仿真验证和模拟电路的健康度预测实验结果表明,所提算法能有效降低多步预测导致的误差积累,显著提高回归估计精度,更好地预测模拟电路状态的变化趋势。     

GM(1,1)模型在巡航导弹预测中的应用

为了对巡航导弹的距离进行预测,建立了GM(1,1)模型,详细介绍了建模和计算预测值的过程.采用"等维灰数递补动态预测"的预测方法,对预测模型的可行性进行了分析,提出了对巡航导弹预测建模的原则,并进行了示例分析,用预测值和实际值进行了误差检验,并对模型精度进行了分析.建模和计算结果表明,该模型和方法对巡航导弹的距离进行预测,计算精度高且运算速度快.     

基于自适应过滤法和马尔柯夫链的网络流量预测方法

提出了一种新的网络流量预测方法,该方法根据网络流量历史值,用自适应过滤法进行预测,然后用马尔柯夫链对自适应过滤法预测时产生的误差进行修正,从而达到较高的预测精度。应用此模型对实际网络流量进行预测,结果表明了该方法是有效可行的。     

电力系统负荷预测综述

负荷预测对电力系统非常重要,是电力系统进行规划、调度的基础,也是电力系统安全、稳定和经济运行的保障。精确的负荷预测是电力系统一直追求的目标,各种现代的新兴算法、方法运用到负荷预测之中,不同的预测方法由于自身的特点对于负荷预测的适用性也不尽相同,对于不同方法在负荷预测中的综述就显得很有必要。讨论了国内外的负荷预测的研究现状,分析了进行电力系统负荷预测的多种传统方法和现代智能方法,并总结出各种预测方法的优缺点和适用性,对于电力系统在选择负荷预测方法时具有一定参考价值。最后,对智能电网下的几种特定负荷预测场景进行了介绍,以这些角度去看待负荷预测问题,得出适用于这些场景的负荷预测方法,对于未来的负荷预测的发展也进行了展望。     

数据挖掘在股票价格组合预测中的应用

研究股票价格变化预测问题,股票价格受多种影响,导致具有突变性、非线性和随机性,单一预测方法只能描述股票价格部分变化规律,预测精度低。为提高股票价格预测精度,提出一种基于数据挖掘技术的股票价格组合预测模型。根据股票价格变化特点,首先对其线性变化规律进行建模预测,并对非线性变化规律进行建模预测,最后将两种预测结果进行融合,得到股票价格的最终预测结果。仿真结果表明,相对于单一股票价格预测模型,组合预测模型提高了股票价格预测精度,降低了股票价格预测误差,更加全面、准确反映了股票价格的变化规律,是一种有效、高精度的股票价格预测参考手段。     

网络安全态势预测方法的应用研究

研究网络安全的预测问题,面对海量恶意攻击,信息要及时告警,进行安全管理。针对当前预测模型只能对过去和现在网络安全态势进行分析,不能对将来网络安全态势进行预测的缺陷,为了提高预测精度,提出了支持向量机的网络安全态势预测方法。支持向量机可以利用过去和当前的网络安全态势值,对将来网络安全状态进行预测,同时采用遗传算法对支持向量机参数优化,加快网络安全态势预测速度。通过仿真对预测方法性能进行检验,结果表明,预测方法能够准确反映网络安全的整体变化趋势,提高了网络安全态势的预测精度,相对于传统预测方法,更适用于现实的网络环境中。     

An evaluation of the effectiveness of symbolic testing

The effectiveness in discovering errors of symbolic evaluation and of testing sad static program analysis are studied. The three techniques are applied to a diverse collection of programs and the results compared. Symbolic evaluation is used to carry out symbolic testing and to generate symbolic systems of path predicates. The use of the predicates for automated test data selection is analysed. Several conventional types of program testing strategies are evaluated. The strategies include branch testing, structured testing and testing on input values having special properties. The static source analysis techniques that are studied include anomaly analysis and interface analysis. Examples are included which describe typical situations in which one technique is reliable but another unreliable. The effectiveness of symbolic testing is compared with testing on actual data and with the use of an integrated methodology that includes both testing and static source analysis. Situations in which symbolic testing is difficult to apply or not effective are discussed. Different ways in which symbolic evaluation can be used for generating test data are described. Those ways for which it is most effective are isolated. The paper concludes with a discussion of the most effective uses to which symbolic evaluation can he put in an integrated system which contains all three of the validation techniques that are studied.     

Customer routing to parallel servers with different rates

We consider the problem of routing customers to parallel servers having different rates. There are no buffers in the system. Each customer must be rooted to a server immediately upon its arrival and if the server to which it is routed is occupied, then the customer is aborted. The aim is to maximize throughput (the proportion of customers which are successfully routed to a free server), when the routing must be done without knowing which servers are occupied and which are free. An upper bound on the throughput is found for a general renewal arrival process and geometric service times. Furthermore, a new routing policy, the golden ratio policy, is suggested and shown to approach a limit which is within at least 98.4 percent of the upper bound. The golden ratio policy is a generalization of the round robin policy, when the service rates of the servers are different.     

语义块的多元逻辑组合构成研究

利用HNC概念符号知识深入到词语的语义层面，从概念类别的内涵出发，结合概念间语义相关度计算方法以及少量句类知识对非特征语义块的多元逻辑组合的各种情况进行了初步分析。采取演绎和归纳的方法得到了关于语义块的多元逻辑组合的三种语义块结构（并联、串联和混联）的发现、内部结构分析及边界确定的有关规则，并实际验证了这些规则的有效性。     

Using Term-Graph Rewriting Models to Analyse Relative Space Efficiency

Space leaks are a common operational problem in programming languages with automated memory man-agement. Graph rewriting is a natural model of operational behaviour. This paper summarises a PhD thesis which gives a graph-rewriting framework suitable for modelling language implementations and proof techniques for determining the presence or absence of leaks. The approach is to model implementations as graph evaluators with garbage collectors. An evaluator may leak relative to another evaluator, with respect to a translation between their states. Leaks are classified according to their cause and the behaviour which exposes them.Graphs naturally model state size, but we argue that this is too concrete. Accurate evaluators are introduced which allow for a more abstract model in which initial program size is ignored. Evaluators are compared by defining a translation between graphs. Space-safe translations, and non-standard garbage collectors, are defined as another kind of term-graph rewrite system. Leaky evaluators are detected by a proof method which searches for graphs whose evaluation trace is a self-feeding rule sequence.     

Geometry theorem proving by decomposing polynomial system into strong regular sets

This paper presents a complete method to prove geometric theorem by decomposing the corresponding polynomial system into strong regular sets, by which one can compute some components for which the geometry theorem is true and exclude other components for which the geometry theorem is false. Two examples are given to show that the geometry theorems are conditionally true for some components which are excluded by other methods.     

基于Horn逻辑扩展模型的安全协议反例的自动构造

根据安全协议的Horn逻辑扩展模型和相应的安全协议验证方法,提出了自动构造不满足安全性质的安全协议反例的求解策略,并给出了重要定理的证明,设计了一系列自动构造协议攻击的构造算法,并在基于函数式编程语言Objective Caml开发的安全协议验证工具SPVT中实现了这些算法,给出了主要算法的优化方法,详细分析了主要算法的时间复杂度,从理论上证明了算法是线性时间算法.最后,用SPVT对一些典型的安全协议进行了验证,得到了不安全协议的反例,并对反例进行了分析.得到的反例非常方便于阅读,与Alice-Bob标记非常接近,从而使任何领域的专家都可以用这种形式化的方法检查安全协议是否存在真实的反例.     

人脸识别技术综述

首先对计算机人脸自动识别技术的研究背景及发展历程做了简单回顾,然后对人脸正面像的识别方法,按照识别特征的不同进行了分类综述,主要介绍了特征脸（Ｅｉｇｅｎｆａｃｅ）方法、基于小波特征的弹性匹配（Ｅｌａｓｔｉｃ Ｍａｔｃｈｉｎｇ）的方法、形状和灰度模型分离的可变形模型（Ｆｌｅｘｉｂｌ Ｍｏｄｅｌ）以及传统的部件建模等分析方法。通过对各种识别方法的分析与比较,总结了影响人脸识别技术实用化的几个因素,并提出了研究和开发成功的人脸识别技术所需要考虑的几个重要方面,进而展望了人脸识别技术今后的发展方向。     

Feedback control of a class of linear systems with jump parameters

A class of linear systems are studied which are subject to sudden changes in parameter values. An algorithm similar in form to Kushner's stochastic maximum principle is derived and the relationship between these algorithms discussed. Systems in which the performance measure is quadratic are investigated in detail and a differential equation is derived which yields the optimal feedback gains.     

基于信息熵的改进模糊综合评价方法

将信息熵理论与模糊数学方法相结合,建立基于熵权的改进模糊综合评价方法。引用熵权所反应的数据本身的效用值来修正指标的权重系数,通过设定有效度指标来判断评价结果的有效性,采用基于贴近度的择近原则对失效结果做出新的评价。以水质评价为对象,通过实例计算并进行对比分析,发现其结果与其他评价方法的结果基本一致甚至更合理,表明该方法不但结构严谨,而且可信度较高,能有效提高模糊综合评价方法的工程实用性。     

Identifying the Cultural Causes of Disasters: An Analysis of the Hillsborough Football Stadium Disaster

This essay seeks to help stimulate greater effectiveness in dealing with disasters as a problem area. The concern is with those disasters which, arguably, are created by organizations themselves. The essay proceeds, first, by suggesting that many of the deep-seated beliefs which prevail in the UK over the nature of organizations and their management are based on a view of reality which is not in accord with the reality of disaster situations. Thus, it is suggested, organization culture, generally in the UK, is founded on beliefs which are inappropriate for dealing with the disaster phenomenon and which are likely to actually promote ‘organizationally-induced’ disasters.