基于分解集成的LSTM神经网络模型的油价预测

为了提高油价的预测效果,提出一种基于EEMD分解、小波阈值去噪、fine-to-coarse法重构和LSTM神经网络的组合预测方法.EEMD对油价原始时间序列分解,利用小波阈值去噪法获取第一高频模态分量的有效信息;分解出的模态分量运用fine-to-coarse法重构,得到从高到低的重构分量;使用LSTM神经网络预测重构分量;对重构序列简单加和得到最终结果.实证结果表明,与其他基准模型比较,在水平预测和趋势预测上该方法能有效地预测原油价格.     

一种IGS站高程时间序列分析方法

针对IGS站高程时间序列经EEMD分解后含有残留噪声,导致信号重构效果降低的问题,引入互补集合经验模态分解(complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition,CEEMD)方法对IGS站高程时间序列信号进行分解,利用平均周期与能量密度乘积准则进行噪声与信号分界点的判定。据此去除噪声分量,使去噪后的信号更加接近IGS站高程时间序列的真实特性。将基于CEEMD算法与基于EEMD、EMD算法的IGS站高程信号去噪效果进行对比分析,以BJFS站序列信号为分析对象的结果表明,采用EMD、EEMD、CEEMD 3种算法滤波后的信噪比分别为18.808 2、20.478 8、23.965 5,与EMD、EEMD算法相比,采用CEEMD算法滤波的信噪比分别提高了27%和17%,均方根误差指标分别降低了55%、41%。改善了EEMD分解的噪声残留问题,提高了信号重构的效果。     

基于小波-EEMD-Adaline网络的容栅传感器信号去噪方法

针对容栅传感器检测的转动轴扭振信号掺杂的环境噪声干扰和自身的电磁噪声干扰使得信噪比低、微弱信号难提取的问题,提出了一种基于小波-EEMD-Adaline自适应线性神经网络去噪方法.该方法对信号进行小波、EEMD、Adaline网络消噪处理,采用三级去噪、噪声过滤、对消来逼近原始信号.用典型加噪超声信号、Doppler信号、Block信号对该方法进行有效性验证,与EEMD、基于小波分解的EEMD去噪效果相比较.实验结果表明,后两种方法信号去噪的SNR提升小(均不到20),而本文方法SNR(RMSE)提升(减小)明显,对于9 dB的Doppler信号SNR提升达90,RMSE从1.038 5降至0.009 5.对容栅电路实测大噪声微弱信号去噪,结果表明,该方法去噪性能更优,去噪后信号光滑性好,波动稳定性强.     

基于EEMD-SE和栈式降噪自编码网络的局部放电模式识别

由于变电站环境复杂,利用传统的特征统计方法不能准确地提取局部放电(PD)信号的特征及对其识别分类.对此,提出一种基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和样本熵(SE)的局部放电信号特征提取方法.利用EEMD算法对局部放电信号进行时频分析;计算EEMD分解得到的固有模态函数(IMF)的样本熵,并将其作为特征向量表征不同放电类型;采用栈式降噪自编码网络(SDAE)对放电类型进行分类识别.通过对四类局部放电故障进行特征提取和模式识别,对比实验结果表明,该方法能有效地提取放电信号的特征,并较准确地识别各类放电类型.     

心率变异时间序列的预处理算法

心率变异性(Heart rate variability,HRV)是近年来备受关注的无创性心电检测指标之一,但是HRV分析采用的心率变异时间序列(RR间期序列)由于受各类复杂因素的影响,会产生异常脉冲干扰及非平稳趋势波动,对后续的数据分析及有效信息提取产生很大的影响.针对该问题,本文提出一套用于心率变异时间序列预处理的算法,综合采用基于小波分解的去趋势方法和基于脉冲抑制滤波器、差分阈值滤波的方法去除原始间期序列中的非平稳趋势和异常脉冲干扰.通过时域频域对照分析及常用HRV统计指标的评估,结果表明,经本文所述预处理算法处理后的数据,有效抑制了脉冲干扰及非平稳趋势的影响,且主要信息无明显损失,各项常用HRV统计指标的诊断价值均得到了不同程度的提升.     

集合经验模态分解主成分分析分解消噪下的支持向量机组合模型预测

针对工业现场间歇性非平稳时间序列中的特征提取与状态预测问题,提出了一种基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)、主成分分析(PCA)和支持向量机(SVM)的预测新方法。首先,利用EEMD算法对间歇性非平稳时间序列进行多时间尺度分析,得到一组不同尺度的本征模函数(IMF)分量;然后,基于"3σ"原则估计噪声能量,自适应确定累计贡献率,利用PCA算法去除IMF中存在的噪声,降低特征维数和冗余度;最后,在确定SVM关键参数的基础上,以主分量作为输入变量预测未来。实例测试效果显示:平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)、平均绝对误差百分比(MAPE)和均方误差百分比(MSPE)分别为514.774,78.216,12.03%和1.862%。实验结果表明:风能场输出功率时间序列经过EEMD算法和PCA算法的进一步消去噪声处理,在抑制混频现象发生的同时降低了非平稳性,使得最后进行SVM预测的精度较未经PCA处理更高。     

基于集合经验模式分解的火灾时间序列预测

采用集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和多变量相空间重构技术,结合非线性支持向量回归(SVR)模型,提出一种火灾次数时间序列组合预测方法。根据EEMD将非平稳的火灾时间序列分解为一系列不同尺度的固有模态分量,利用多变量相空间重构技术对分解的各个分量进行相空间重构,构建其训练数据,对重构的训练数据建立各分量的非线性支持向量回归预测模型,使用SVR集成预测方法对火灾时间序列进行预测。仿真结果表明,与单变量相空间重构方法以及SVR方法相比,该方法具有较高的预测精度。     

基于EMD-DFA-NLM的电涡流传感器信号去噪方法

针对电涡流位移传感器输出信号中的非稳态噪声,提出一种基于经验模态分解(EMD) －去趋势分析(DFA)－非局部均值(NLM)原理的去噪方法。该方法解决了EMD去噪方法信号、噪声模态不易确定的问题,并且可在滤除高频背景噪声的同时保留信号细节。首先通过EMD将信号分解得到若干本征模态(IMF)分量,然后使用DFA区分噪声主导IMF分量和信号,主导的IMF分量,对噪声主导分量进行NLM去噪处理,最后与信号主导分量一起重构信号,分别对仿真信号和电涡流传感器输出信号进行去噪处理。结果表明,相较EMD去噪法和EMD－小波阈值去噪法,所提方法去噪性能更优SNR(MSE)值提升(减小)明显,去噪后信号的毛刺与高频震荡大大减少。     

基于趋势的时间序列相似性度量和聚类研究

由于时间序列的长度很大,并且不确定时间序列在每个采样点的取值具有不确定性,导致时间序列在相似性匹配和聚类挖掘中时间复杂度很高,为了解决该问题,提出了基于趋势的时间序列相似性度量方法和聚类方法.其中基于趋势的相似性度量方法根据时间序列的整体变化趋势,将时间序列映射为短的趋势符号序列,并利用各趋势的一阶连接性指数和塔尼莫特系数完成相似性度量;基于趋势的聚类方法通过定义趋势高度,并对趋势符号序列迭代进行区间划分和趋势判断,并以此构建趋势树,最后将趋势树根节点中趋势符号相同的序列聚集为一类.实验结果表明:a)五种趋势符号的一阶连接性指数可唯一地表示一条时间序列;b)基于趋势的相似性度量方法在多项式时间内可有效完成时间序列的相似性匹配;c)基于趋势的聚类方法将序列的相似性度量和聚类过程集中在一起,聚类效果显著.     

基于MODWT在金融数据预测的应用

为了准确的把握股价的趋势走向,提出了一种基于极大重叠离散小波变换(MODWT)时间序列分析的股价预测方法(M-ARMA).该方法是对股价时间序列利用mallat算法对其进行极大重叠离散小波变换,使得整个序列分解成不同频率的序列,同时利用小波分析在时域和频域上都具有良好的局部化性质,多尺度分析功能,结合ARMA模型的预测方法,以较为准确地根据历史数据预测其将来短期的走势.实验表明,MODWT时间序列分析方法比传统的时间序列分析方法预测的精度更高.     

煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计及其仿真实现

为了设计一种具有低成本、低功耗、易操作、功能强且可靠性高的煤矿井下安全分站,针对煤矿安全生产实际,文章提出了采用MCS-51系列单片机为核心、具有CAN总线通信接口的煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计方案;首先给出煤矿井下安全监控分站的整体构架设计,然后着重阐述模拟量输入信号处理系统的设计过程,最后说明单片机最小系统及其键盘、显示、报警、通信等各个组成部分的设计;为验证设计方案的可行性与有效性,使用Proteus软件对设计内容进行仿真验证,设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有瓦斯、温度等模拟量参数超标报警功能和电机开停、风门开闭等开关量指示功能;仿真结果表明:设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有一定的实际应用价值.     

Call for Papers The 6^th International Conference on Grid and Cooperative Computing

Recent years have seen rapid advances in various grid-related technologies, middleware, and applications. The GCC conference has become one of the largest scientific events worldwide in grid and cooperative computing. The 6th international conference on grid and cooperative computing (GCC2007) Sponsored by China Computer Federation (CCF),Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ICT) and Xinjiang University ,and in Cooperation with IEEE Computer Soceity ,is to be held from August 16 to 18, 2007 in Urumchi, Xinjiang, China.     

View-based model-driven architecture for enhancing maintainability of data access services

In modern service-oriented architectures, database access is done by a special type of services, the so-called data access services (DAS). Though, particularly in data-intensive applications, using and developing DAS are very common today, the link between the DAS and their implementation, e.g. a layer of data access objects (DAOs) encapsulating the database queries, still is not sufficiently elaborated, yet. As a result, as the number of DAS grows, finding the desired DAS for reuse and/or associated documentation can become an impossible task. In this paper we focus on bridging this gap between the DAS and their implementation by presenting a view-based, model-driven data access architecture (VMDA) managing models of the DAS, DAOs and database queries in a queryable manner. Our models support tailored views of different stakeholders and are scalable with all types of DAS implementations. In this paper we show that our view-based and model driven architecture approach can enhance software development productivity and maintainability by improving DAS documentation. Moreover, our VMDA opens a wide range of applications such as evaluating DAS usage for DAS performance optimization. Furthermore, we provide tool support and illustrate the applicability of our VMDA in a large-scale case study. Finally, we quantitatively prove that our approach performs with acceptable response times.     

A pragmatic multi-method investigation of discrepant technological events: Coping,attributions, and ‘accidental’ learning

Discrepant technological events or situations that entail a problem, a misunderstanding or a difficulty with the Information Technology (IT) being employed, are common in the workplace, and can lead to frustration and avoidance behaviors. Little is known, however, about how individuals cope with these events. This paper examines these events by using a multi-method pragmatic approach informed by coping theory. The results of two studies – a critical incident study and an experiment – serve to build and test, respectively, a theoretical model that posits that individuals use a variety of strategies when dealing with these events: they experience negative emotions, make external attributions, and adopt engagement coping strategies directed at solving the event, eventually switching to a disengagement coping strategy when they feel they have no control over the situation. Furthermore, users’ efforts may result in ‘accidental’ learning as they try to overcome the discrepant IT events through engagement coping. The paper ends with a discussion of the results in light of existing literature, future opportunities for research, and implications for practice.     

The Distributed Time-Triggered Simulation Scheme: Core Principles and Supporting Execution Engine

Distributed real-time simulation is a young technology field but its practice is under increasing demands. In recent years the author and his collaborators have been establishing a new approach called the distributed time-triggered simulation (DTS) scheme which is conceptually simple and easy to use but widely applicable. The concept was initiated in the course of developing a new-generation object-oriented real-time programming scheme called the time-triggered message-triggered object (TMO) programming scheme. Some fundamental issues inherent in distributed real-time simulation that were learned during recent experimental studies are discussed along with some approaches for resolving the issues. An execution engine developed to support both the TMOs engaged in control computation and the TMOs engaged in DTS is also discussed along with its possible extensions that will enable significantly larger-scale DTSs.     

Software-Konfigurationsmanagement in großen Softwareprojekten

Zusammenfassung Mit zunehmender Größe der Softwaresysteme verschärfen sich die für die Software-Herstellung typischen Probleme: Beherrschen großer Objektmengen, Erhalten der Systemkonsistenz, Kontrolle der ständigen Änderungseinflüsse und Gewährleisten einer langen Lebensdauer. Die Disziplin Konfigurationsmanagement bildet den methodischen Ansatz, diese Probleme besser zu beherrschen. Software-Konfigurationsmanagement faßt die Herstellung von Softwaresystemen als eine Abfolge von kontrollierten Änderungen an gesicherten Zwischen- und Endergebnissen auf. Dargestellt werden die Objekte und Funktionen des Software-Konfigurationsmanagements sowie die hierfür in großen Software-Projekten benötigten Methoden, Instanzen und Hilfsmittel.     

Information for Authors

正http://www.zju.edu.cn/jzus http://www.springerlink.com Aim The Journals of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE(A/B/C)are edited by the international board of distinguished Chinese and foreign scientists,and are aimed to present the latest developments and achievements in scientific research in China and     

Editorial:Brain-machine interface(BMI) and cyborg intelligence

正Brain-machine interfaces(BMIs)aim at building a direct communication pathway between the brain and an external device,and represent an area of research where significant progress has been made during the past decade.Based on BMIs,mind information can be read out by neural signals to control     

Information for Authors

正http://www.zju.edu.cn/jzus http://www.springerlink.com Aim The Journals of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE(A/B/C)are edited by the international board of distinguished Chinese and foreign scientists,and are aimed to present the latest developments and achievements in scientific research in China and overseas to the world’s scientific circles,especially to stimulate     

SCIENCE CHINA Information Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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