多个MFD子区边界协调控制方法

为了改善交通网络运行状况,根据车流密度的差异对宏观路网进行子区划分,提出了面向多个宏观基本图（Macroscopic fundamental diagram,MFD）子区的边界协调控制方法.根据划分的多个子区间邻接关系和流入流出交通流率,建立了路网车流平衡方程.通过与最佳累积车辆数进行比较,确定了拥挤度高的子区边界交叉口最佳流入与流出的交通流量;进而建立了以整个路网旅行完成流率最大、平均行程时间和平均延误最小的多目标边界协调优化模型,并通过自适应遗传算法对多目标函数进行求解.以存在4个MFD子区的实际路网为分析对象,对比仿真结果表明所提方法可有效提高路网运行效率、缓解拥堵状况.     

Estimating congestion zones and travel time indexes based on the floating car data

Efficiently predicting traffic congestion benefits various traffic stakeholders, from regular commuters and logistic operators to urban planners and responsible authorities. This study aims to give a high-quality estimation of traffic conditions from a large historical Floating Car Data (FCD) with two main goals: (i) estimation of congestion zones on a large road network, and (ii) estimation of travel times within congestion zones in the form of the time-varying Travel Time Indexes (TTIs). On the micro level, the traffic conditions, in the form of speed profiles were mapped to links in the road network. On the macro level, the observed area was divided into a fine-grained grid and represented as an image where each pixel indicated congestion intensity. Spatio-temporal characteristics of congestion zones were determined by morphological closing operation and Monte Carlo simulation coupled with temporal clustering. As a case study, the road network in Croatia was selected with spatio-temporal analysis differentiating between the summer season and the rest of the year season. To validate the proposed approach, three comparisons were conducted: (i) comparison to real routes' travel times driven in a controlled manner, (ii) comparison to historical trajectory dataset, and (iii) comparison to the state-of-the-art method. Compared to the real measured travel times, using zone's time-varying TTIs for travel time estimation resulted in the mean relative percentage error of 4.13%, with a minor difference to travel times estimated on the micro level, and a significant improvement compared to the current Croatian industrial navigation. The results support the feasibility of estimating congestion zones and time-varying TTIs on a large road network from FCD, with the application in urban planning and time-dependent routing operations due to: significant reduction in the data volume without notable quality loss, and meaningful reduction in the pre-processing computation time.     

基于O-D矩阵估计的路网交通流量仿真模型

为了将交通出行需求对路网交通流量的影响进行动态的量化分析,提出了一个基于O-D矩阵估计的路网交通流量仿真模型。利用O-D矩阵估计的重力模型计算方法、复杂网络理论和路段阻抗模型,构建了路网模型;在人们出行总是选择路段阻抗最小路径的假定下,设计了出行需求的路网流量映射算法;基于离散事件仿真,在PC系统上实现了路网流量仿真系统。仿真结果表明：该仿真系统可以根据各交通子区域出行需求的变化,精确模拟路网流量和交通状态的动态演进。     

城市复杂道路网络交通流的分解模型

针对城市道路交通流非线性、不确定性和模糊性特点,将城市道路与快速干道作为整体对待,提出了面向控制应用的城市交通网络宏观动态离散模型。将城市街区作为划分基点,把整个城市道路复杂交通网络分解为交叉口和单向环形道路两个子系统,分别建立了它们的宏观动态模型。通过对交叉口进行理想虚拟变形,将各个单向环形道路连接在一起,从而形成各种复杂网络。对西安市中心区域的实际交通流数据进行了仿真研究,结果表明该交通流模型基本实现了城市道路与快速干道的统一分析建模,较好地反映了城市路网的交通流信息,可以作为城市交通控制系统分析和设计的有力工具。     

出租车数据的城市道路网路段通行时间估计方法

城市路段通行时间估计能够更好地运营和管理城市交通。针对包含起点-终点位置,行程时间和距离信息的GPS行程数据,提出了一种城市道路网短时通行时间的估计模型。首先将城市道路网按照交叉路口分解为多个路段,并基于k-最短路径搜索方法分析司机行进路线。然后针对每一个路段,提出了双车道通行时间多项式关联关系模型,既能提升道路网通行时间精细度,又能避免因训练数据不足导致的路网通行时间过拟合问题。最后以最小化行程期望时间和实际行程时间之间的均方误差为优化目标,拟合道路网通行时间。在纽约出租车数据集上的实验结果表明,所提模型及方法相对于传统单车道估计方法能够更准确地估计城市道路网路段的通行时间。     

基于实时车速的交通控制与诱导协同

为了减小路网的总行程时间和提高路网运行效率,提出一种基于实时车速的交通控制与诱导协同模型。利用惩罚函数将有约束遗传算法转化为无约束遗传算法对所建立的协同模型进行求解,得到最佳的控制方案和诱导方案。在Vissim微观交通仿真软件中建立包含4个交叉口的小型路网进行仿真实验,仿真结果表明,此方法能够有效地减少路网总行程时间,提高路网运行效率。      

基于实测流量的局域路网随机分配模型

针对城市局域路网所能获取的出行需求条件通常是重要交叉口的流量数据,而不是完整的出行OD矩阵的特点,在分析城市道路转弯比例时变稳定性的基础上,采用交叉口转弯比例作为重要参数,建立基于蒙特卡罗随机系统模拟思想的局域路网交通分配模型,并给出局域路网仿真分配系数矩阵的计算方法。将该模型在实际路网中进行应用测试,分配流量与实测数据的比对结果验证了该方法的适用性。     

基于蚁群算法的动态用户均衡配流

在路网中,为了使用户的出行时间降到最低,提出一个适用于多OD对的路网的动态用户均衡离散模型,并应用蚁群算法求解动态用户均衡问题.通过设计一个算例,利用仿真得出路网中的流量分配数据,并和二次规划Frank-Wolfe算法求解的流量分配数据进行比较,最后得出蚁群算法在求解动态交通用户均衡问题时具有一定的优势.     

基于波动方程的动态交通流网络模型研究

研究优化交通流量问题。从交通流量中获取实时旅行时间是现代智能交通系统模型的关键技术,针对传统模型构建复杂、计算时间长、难以提供实时旅行时间的缺点,构建出一种动态交通流网络分析模型,以计算实时性的旅行时间优化交通流量。在模型中首先使用LWR车流模型构建成起始值-边界条件连续方程式,采用高阶Runge-Kutta法计算路段上的流量、密度和运行速度,进而得到车辆运行某段距离所需要的旅行时间;再将这些旅行时间加总,则可求得全路段或路网的旅行时间。最后使用上面提出的的动态交通流网络模型对一小型的高速公路单车道交通流网络进行了仿真。仿真结果表明,上述模型可以加快动态交通流网络中旅行时间的求解速度,以达到提供实时信息的目标。     

考虑交通拥堵规避的低碳时变车辆路径问题研究

针对时变路网条件下的低碳车辆路径问题,首先,分析车辆离散行驶速度与连续行驶时间之间的关系,依据“先进先出”准则设计基于时间段划分的路段行驶时间计算方法,引入考虑车辆速度、实时载重、行驶距离与道路坡度因素的碳排放计算函数;然后,在此基础上以所有车辆的碳排放量最小为目标构建低碳时变车辆路径问题数学模型;最后,引入交通拥堵指数,设计交通拥堵规避方法,并根据模型特点设计一种改进蚁群算法求解.实验结果表明,所提出方法能有效规避交通拥堵、缩短车辆行驶时间、减少车辆碳排放,促进物流配送与生态环境和谐发展.     

基于信号控制的城市路网旅行时间计算模型

交通控制信号对交通流的影响是干扰实时交通数据计算准确性的重要因素。为此,提出一种基于信号控制的城市路网旅行时间计算模型。将城市道路的旅行时间分为2个部分,即路链有效旅行时间和路口延误时间,设计改进的信号控制延误模型用于计算路口延误时长,并给出路链合并算法。实验结果表明,该模型起点到终点的旅行时间误差率能降低5%~15%。     

Modeling and optimizing traffic light settings in road networks

We discuss continuous traffic flow network models including traffic lights. A mathematical model for traffic light settings within a macroscopic continuous traffic flow network is presented, and theoretical properties are investigated. The switching of the traffic light states is modeled as a discrete decision and is subject to optimization. A numerical approach for the optimization of switching points as a function of time based upon the macroscopic traffic flow model is proposed. The numerical discussion relies on an equivalent reformulation of the original problem as well as a mixed-integer discretization of the flow dynamics. The large-scale optimization problem is solved using derived heuristics within the optimization process. Numerical experiments are presented for a single intersection as well as for a road network.     

基于道路风险评估的城市路网实时路径选择

为了缓解城市交通拥堵、避免交通事故的发生,城市路网的路径选择一直以来是一个热门的研究课题.随着边缘计算和车辆智能终端技术的发展,城市路网中的行驶车辆从自组织网络朝着车联网(Internet of vehicles,IoV)范式过渡,这使得车辆路径选择问题从基于静态历史交通数据的计算向实时交通信息计算转变.在城市路网路径选择问题上,众多学者的研究主要聚焦如何提高出行效率,减少出行时间等.然而这些研究并没有考虑所选路径是否存在风险等问题.基于以上问题,首次构造了一个基于边缘计算技术的道路风险实时评估模型(real-time road risk assessment model based on edge computing, R³A-EC),并提出基于该模型的城市路网实时路径选择方法(real-time route selection method based on risk assessment, R²S-RA). R3A-EC模型利用边缘计算技术的低延迟,高可靠性等特点对城市道路进行实时风险评估,并利用最小风险贝叶斯决策验证道路是否存在风险问...     

Swarm intelligence algorithms for macroscopic traffic flow model validation with automatic assignment of fundamental diagrams

This paper is concerned with the problem of macroscopic road traffic flow model calibration and verification. Thoroughly validated models are necessary for both control system design and scenario evaluation purposes. Here, the second order traffic flow model METANET was calibrated and verified using real data.A powerful optimisation problem formulation is proposed for identifying a set of model parameters that makes the model fit to measurements. For the macroscopic traffic flow model validation problem, this set of parameters characterise the aggregate traffic flow features over a road network. In traffic engineering, one of the most important relationships whose parameters need to be determined is the fundamental diagram of traffic, which models the non-linear relationship between vehicular flow and density. Typically, a real network does not exhibit the same traffic flow aggregate behaviour everywhere and different fundamental diagrams are used for covering different network areas. As a result, one of the initial steps of the validation process rests on expert engineering opinion assigning the spatial extension of fundamental diagrams. The proposed optimisation problem formulation allows for automatically determining the number of different fundamental diagrams to be used and their corresponding spatial extension over the road network, simplifying this initial step. Although the optimisation problem suffers from local minima, good solutions which generalise well were obtained.The design of the system used is highly generic and allows for a number of evolutionary and swarm intelligence algorithms to be used. Two UK sites have been used for testing it. Calibration and verification results are discussed in detail. The resulting models are able to capture the dynamics of traffic flow and replicate shockwave propagation.A total of ten different algorithms were considered and compared with respect to their ability to converge to a solution, which remains valid for different sets of data. Particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithms have proven to be particularly effective and provide the best results both in terms of speed of convergence and solution generalisation. An interesting result reported is that more recently proposed PSO algorithms were outperformed by older variants, both in terms of speed of convergence and model error minimisation.     

基于MFD的城市区域过饱和交通信号优化控制

为了解决交通高峰时段城市区域路网过大的交通需求引起的路网通行效率下降以及区域内部交通流分布的异质性产生的道路资源浪费等问题.本文提出了基于区域路网固有属性宏观基本图（Macroscopic fundamental diagram,MFD）的过饱和区域控制优化模型,建立了边界控制信号和内部控制信号目标函数的双层规划优化,进一步设计了基于BP（Back propagation）神经网络的自适应动态规划（Adaptive dynamic programming,ADP）模型,对建立的双层规划区域交通信号进行求解,实例仿真结果验证了本文方法的有效性.通过本文的研究分析,对城市区域交通的需求管控、拥堵政策制定等城市区域交通管理具有一定的指导意义.     

基于时空信息融合学习的路段行程车速短时预测

路段行程车速的变化受时间和空间维度信息的综合影响,多数神经网络模型仅从时间维度上预测路段行程车速的变化规律,未能全面考虑路网结构和上下游交通状态对路段行程车速的影响。结合图卷积网络和门控循环单元构建深度学习模型,挖掘路段行程车速的时空特性。通过在线地图平台获取路段实时行程车速,使用等维递补方法更新历史序列数据,提高预测实时性。在深圳市部分区域路网上的实验结果表明,该模型的多步预测精度均在90%以上,相比自回归积分滑动平均模型、支持向量机回归模型和门控循环单元模型最高提升了6.9%、1.3%和0.4%,具有更优的路段行程车速预测效果。     

面向高速公路通行时间分布预测的时空混合密度神经网络

准确的通行时间分布预测可以全面地反映高速公路路网中各个路段在未来的通行状况,辅助实现高速公路中的路径规划,事故事件预警等精细化管理目标.为此,本文提出一种面向高速公路通行时间分布预测的时空混合密度神经网络.具体地,本文利用自适应图卷积通过数据驱动的方式提取路网中的空间特征,有效解决了基于预定义图难以捕获路网信息中完整空间相关性的问题.在时间维度上,不同时间的路网信息存在显著的相关性,因此,本文基于注意力机制自适应建模路网信息的时间相关性,并通过卷积层进一步聚合相邻时间步之间的信息.最后,基于自适应时空相关性建模得到的路段嵌入表示,通过混合密度网络建模通行时间的分布,以实现高速公路中各个路段的通行时间分布预测.     

考虑时空相似性的动态图卷积神经网络交通流预测

高精度的交通流预测对于大型城市的交通管理和智慧出行具有重要作用,而交通流动态时空相关性的挖掘则是提高预测精度的关键.针对现有研究中存在的对交通流在不同时间尺度下呈现出的高度相似性,以及处于相似功能区的非邻近节点间交通流变化的相似性考虑不足的问题,构建考虑时空相似性的动态图卷积神经网络(dynamic graph convolution neural network considering spatio-temporal similarity,STS-DGCN).以相邻时段、日和周等多时间尺度下的数据输入张量表达交通流数据的时间相似性,以路网节点间距离度量、相似性度量、自适应嵌入、动态相关性等多属性特征的邻接矩阵表达交通流数据的时空相似性,进而基于这些邻接矩阵构建反映路网节点时空动态变化的动态图,并设计相应的时空特征挖掘算法.在公开数据集上的实验结果表明,所提出模型的预测结果优于目前较为先进的对比基线模型,具有更高的预测精度.     

Comparison of Methods for Path Flow Reassignment for Dynamic User Equilibrium

Models to describe or predict of time-varying traffic flows and travel times on road networks are usually referred to as dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models or dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) models. The most common form of algorithms for DUE consists of iterating between two components namely dynamic network loading (DNL) and path inflow reassignment or route choice. The DNL components in these algorithms have been investigated in many papers but in comparison the path inflow reassignment component has been relatively neglected. In view of that, we investigate various methods for path inflow reassignment that have been used in the literature. We compare them numerically by embedding them in a DUE algorithm and applying the algorithm to solve DUE problems for various simple network scenarios. We find that the choice of inflow reassignment method makes a huge difference to the speed of convergence of the algorithms and, in particular, find that ??travel time responsive?? reassignment methods converge much faster than the other methods. We also investigate how speed of convergence is affected by the extent of congestion on the network, by higher demand or lower capacity. There appears to be much scope for further improving path inflow reassignment methods.     

Self-regularized causal structure discovery for trajectory-based networks

Trajectory-based networks exhibit strong heterogeneous patterns amid human behaviors. We propose a notion of causal time-varying dynamic Bayesian network (cTVDBN) to efficiently discover such patterns. While asymmetric kernels are used to make the model better adherence to causal principles, the variations of network connectivities are addressed by an adaptive over-fitting control. Compact regularization paths are obtained by approximate homotopy to make the solution tractable. In our experiments, cTVDBN structure discovery has successfully revealed the evolution of time-varying relationships in a ring road system, and provided insights for plausible road structure improvements from a traffic flow dataset.