Forecasting Ranking in Harness Racing Using Probabilities Induced by Expected Positions

Ranked events are pivotal in many important AI-applications such as Question Answering and recommendations systems. This paper studies ranked events in the setting of harness racing.

For each horse there exists a probability distribution over its possible rankings. In the paper, it is shown that a set of expected positions (and more generally, higher moments) for the horses induces this probability distribution.

The main contribution of the paper is a method, which extracts this induced probability distribution from a set of expected positions. An algorithm is proposed where the extraction of the induced distribution is given by the estimated expectations. MATLAB code is provided for the methodology.

This approach gives freedom to model the horses in many different ways without the restrictions imposed by for instance logistic regression. To illustrate this point, we employ a neural network and ordinary ridge regression.

The method is applied to predicting the distribution of the finishing positions for horses in harness racing. It outperforms both multinomial logistic regression and the market odds.

The ease of use combined with fine results from the suggested approach constitutes a relevant addition to the increasingly important field of ranked events.     

Quantitative Analysis of Situation Awareness (QASA): modelling and measuring situation awareness using signal detection theory

This paper presents a model of situation awareness (SA) that emphasises that SA is necessarily built using a subset of available information. A technique (Quantitative Analysis of Situation Awareness – QASA), based around signal detection theory, has been developed from this model that provides separate measures of actual SA (ASA) and perceived SA (PSA), together with a feature unique to QASA, a measure of bias (information acceptance). These measures allow the exploration of the relationship between actual SA, perceived SA and information acceptance. QASA can also be used for the measurement of dynamic ASA, PSA and bias. Example studies are presented and full details of the implementation of the QASA technique are provided.

Practitioner Summary: This paper presents a new model of situation awareness (SA) together with an associated tool (Quantitative Analysis of Situation Awareness – QASA) that employs signal detection theory to measure several aspects of SA, including actual and perceived SA and information acceptance. Full details are given of the implementation of the tool.     

Posture normalisation of 3D body scans

For product developers that design near-body products, virtual mannequins that represent realistic body shapes, are valuable tools. With statistical shape modelling, the variability of such body shapes can be described. Shape variation captured by statistical shape models (SSMs) is often polluted by posture variations, leading to less compact models. In this paper, we propose a framework that has low computational complexity to build a posture invariant SSM, by capturing and correcting the posture of an instance. The posture-normalised SSM is shown to be substantially more compact than the non-posture-normalised SSM.

Practitioner summary: Statistical shape modelling is a technique to map out the variability of (body) shapes. This variability is often polluted by variations in posture. In this paper, we propose a framework to build a posture invariant statistical shape model.

Abbreviations: SSM: statistical shape model; 1D: one-dimensional; 3D: three-dimensional; DHM: digital human model; LBS: linear blend skinning; PCA: princial component analysis; PC: principal component; TTR: thumb tip reach.     

Situation awareness acquired from monitoring process plants – the Process Overview concept and measure

We introduce Process Overview, a situation awareness characterisation of the knowledge derived from monitoring process plants. Process Overview is based on observational studies of process control work in the literature. The characterisation is applied to develop a query-based measure called the Process Overview Measure. The goal of the measure is to improve coupling between situation and awareness according to process plant properties and operator cognitive work. A companion article presents the empirical evaluation of the Process Overview Measure in a realistic process control setting. The Process Overview Measure demonstrated sensitivity and validity by revealing significant effects of experimental manipulations that corroborated with other empirical results. The measure also demonstrated adequate inter-rater reliability and practicality for measuring SA based on data collected by process experts.

Practitioner Summary: The Process Overview Measure is a query-based measure for assessing operator situation awareness from monitoring process plants in representative settings.     

Training visual attention in a naturalistic visual environment

The efficiency of training visual attention in the central and peripheral visual field was investigated by means of a visual detection task that was performed in a naturalistic visual environment including numerous, time-varying visual distractors. We investigated the minimum number of repetitions of the training required to obtain the top performance and whether intra-day training improved performance as efficiently as inter-day training. Additionally, our research aimed to find out whether exposure to a demanding task such as a microsurgical intervention may cancel out the effects of training.

Results showed that performance in visual attention peaked within three (for tasks in the central visual field) to seven (for tasks in the periphery) days subsequent to training. Intra-day training had no significant effect on performance. When attention training was administered after exposure to stress, improvement of attentional performance was more pronounced than when training was completed before the exposure. Our findings support the implementation of training in situ at work for more efficient results.

Practitioner Summary: Visual attention is important in an increasing number of workplaces, such as with surveillance, inspection, or driving. This study shows that it is possible to train visual attention efficiently within three to seven days. Because our study was executed in a naturalistic environment, training results are more likely to reflect the effects in the real workplace.     

Machine Learning-Based Predictions of Customers’ Decisions in Car Insurance

Predicting customer decisions allows companies to obtain higher profits due to better resource management. The accuracy of those predictions can be currently boosted by the application of machine learning algorithms.

We propose a new method to predict a car driver’s decision about taking a replacement car after a vehicle accident happens. We use feature engineering to create attributes of high significance. The generated attributes are related to time (e.g., school holidays), place of collision (e.g., distance from home), time and conditions (e.g., weather), vehicles (e.g., vehicle value), addresses of both the victim and the perpetrator. Feature engineering involves external sources of data.

Five machine learning methods of classification are considered: decision trees, multi-layer perceptrons, AdaBoost, logistic regression and gradient boosting. Algorithms are tested on real data from a Polish insurance company. Over 80% accuracy of prediction is achieved. Significance of the attributes is calculated using the linear vector quantization method.

Presented work shows the applicability of machine learning in the car insurance market.     

Sex differences in upper limb 3D joint contributions during a lifting task

Sex-related differences in work technique may contribute to increasing the risk of musculoskeletal joint disorders among women. In lifting tasks, sex differences have been reported for the trunk and lower limb, although women present a higher prevalence of shoulder disorders. We investigated sex differences in the upper limb technique during a lifting task. Trunk and upper limb kinematics were recorded in 27 women and 27 men lifting a box (6 or 12?kg) from hip to eye level. Work technique was quantified through the three-dimensional contribution of each joint to overall box height. The glenohumeral joint showed a higher contribution in women with a 6?kg box and wrist and elbow joints did with a 12?kg box, compared to men at either 6 or 12?kg. Sex differences occurred systematically above shoulder level. Our results argue for careful consideration of sex during ergonomic intervention, particularly during the overhead task.

Practitioner Summary: We investigated the sex-related differences in upper limb technique during lifting tasks. Results highlight a sex-specific kinematic strategy above the shoulder level on the glenohumeral joint and on the wrist and elbow joints. To help reduce women’s shoulder disorders in overhead task, ergonomic interventions should account for those differences.

Abbreviations: DoF: degree-of-freedom; WR/EL: wrist and elbow; GH: glenohumeral; SC/AC: sternoclavicular and acromioclavicular; TR/PE: pelvo-thoracic     

Automation transparency: implications of uncertainty communication for human-automation interaction and interfaces

Operators of highly automated driving systems may exhibit behaviour characteristic for overtrust issues due to an insufficient awareness of automation fallibility. Consequently, situation awareness in critical situations is reduced and safe driving performance following emergency takeovers is impeded. A driving simulator study was used to assess the impact of dynamically communicating system uncertainties on monitoring, trust, workload, takeovers, and physiological responses. The uncertainty information was conveyed visually using a stylised heart beat combined with a numerical display and users were engaged in a visual search task. Multilevel analysis results suggest that uncertainty communication helps operators calibrate their trust and gain situation awareness prior to critical situations, resulting in safer takeovers. In addition, eye tracking data indicate that operators can adjust their gaze behaviour in correspondence with the level of uncertainty. However, conveying uncertainties using a visual display significantly increases operator workload and impedes users in the execution of non-driving related tasks.

Practitioner Summary: This article illustrates how the communication of system uncertainty information helps operators calibrate their trust in automation and, consequently, gain situation awareness. Multilevel analysis results of a driving simulator study affirm the benefits for trust calibration and highlight that operators adjust their behaviour according to multiple uncertainty levels.     

The impact of external facial features on the construction of facial composites

Witnesses may construct a composite face of a perpetrator using a computerised interface. Police practitioners guide witnesses through this unusual process, the goal being to produce an identifiable image. However, any changes a perpetrator makes to their external facial-features may interfere with this process. In Experiment 1, participants constructed a composite using a holistic interface one day after target encoding. Target faces were unaltered, or had altered external-features: (i) changed hair, (ii) external-features removed or (iii) naturally-concealed external-features (hair, ears, face-shape occluded by a hooded top). These manipulations produced composites with more error-prone internal-features: participants’ familiar with a target’s unaltered appearance less often provided a correct name. Experiment 2 applied external-feature alterations to composites of unaltered targets; although whole-face composites contained less error-prone internal-features, identification was impaired. Experiment 3 replicated negative effects of changing target hair on construction and tested a practical solution: selectively concealing hair and eyes improved identification.

Practitioner Summary: The research indicates that when a target identity disguises or changes hair, this can lead to a witness (or victim) constructing a composite that is less readily identified. We assess a practical method to overcome this forensic issue.

Abbreviation: GEE: Generalized Estimating Equations     

Introducing ergonomics requirements in the eco-design of energy-related products from users’ behaviour approach

Ergonomics has been a very important activity in the design process. However, ergonomics rarely includes the environmental requirements into the design of products. The article proposes and presents the Eco-Ergo model through its application to a real-world product, a washing machine, to allow designers and ergonomists to establish product design requirements in order to minimise environmental impacts related to user–product interaction during the use stage. This model uses a visual language of representation, Blueprinting-based, that helps designers explore problems they have not previously considered during the market research when a wide variety of products with different interaction elements is analysed. The application of this model allows direct efforts and attention on the user analysis phase in the most influential user’s actions on the environmental performance of energy-related products during use, establishing ergonomics requirements related to users behaviour at the initial design phase.

Practitioner summary: This study provides a proposal to incorporate ergonomics into the practice of eco-design through the use of human factors in the establishment of initial eco-design requirements. This blueprint-based model combines an empirical and theoretical approach, based on the product test developed by designers, ergonomists and environmentalists.

Abbreviations: CO2: carbon dioxide; DBIM: design behaviour intervention model; DfSB: design for sustainable behaviour; DwI Method: design with intent method; LCA: life cycle assessment; LCD: liquid cristal display; MJ: megajoule; MTM: methods-time measurement; PSS: product-service system; RPM: revolutions per minute     

Where to put the creases? Interactions between hand length,task, screen size,and folding method on the suitability of hand-held foldable display devices

Limited information is available regarding ergonomic foldable display device forms. This two-stage study involving young South Koreans (divided into three hand-length groups) was conducted to determine ergonomic forms for hand-held foldable display devices considering folding/unfolding comfort and preference. Stage I obtained the suitability of three screen sizes for five tasks. Stage II evaluated 14 different bi- and tri-folding methods considering screen size, folding direction, and folding time. The effects of hand length were all non-significant. Screen size preferences were task-dependent; small screens were preferred for making calls, and medium screens for web searching and gaming. Folding methods affected folding/unfolding comfort and preference; outward screen and Z-shape screen folding were the most preferred bi- and tri-fold concepts, respectively. Screen protection and access appeared to be competing factors in the user preference determination process. Foldable screen size and folding method should be determined by considering tasks, folding/unfolding comfort, and user preferences.

Practitioner summary: A 13.5?cm screen was preferred for making calls, whereas a 17.5?cm screen was best for web searching and gaming. An outward bi-fold screen concept with a 17.5?cm screen and Z-shape tri-fold screen concept with a 22.9?cm screen were preferred. Overall, the Z-shape concept was most preferred.

Abbreviations: SD: standard deviation; ANOVA: analysis of variance; H: Height; W: Width; T: Thickness     

Introducing RiskSOAP to communicate the distributed situation awareness of a system about safety issues: an application to a robotic system

This paper introduces the RiskSOAP (‘RiskSOAP’ is the abbreviation for Risk SituatiOn Awareness Provision.) indicator to measure the capability of a complex socio-technical system to provide its agents with situation awareness (SA) about the presence of its threats and vulnerabilities and enables analysts to assess distributed SA. The RiskSOAP methodology adopts a comparative approach between two design versions of a system differing in the elements and characteristics that can enhance or cause the degradation of the awareness provision capability. The methodology uniquely combines three methods: (1) the STPA hazard analysis, (2) the EWaSAP early warning sign identification approach, and (3) a dissimilarity measure for calculating the distance between binary sets. In this paper, the RiskSOAP methodology was applied to a robotic system and the findings show that the indicator is an objective measure for the system’s capability to provide its agents with SA about its threats and vulnerabilities.

Practitioner Summary: This paper suggests a novel methodology for assessing distributed situation awareness (DSA) regarding safety issues. Given that systems consist of specifications and components possible to be mapped, the risk SA provision capability (RiskSOAP) methodology demonstrates the feasibility of measuring to what extent systems’ elements contribute to the emergence of DSA.     

The effect of age on in-vivo spine stiffness,postures and discomfort responses during prolonged sitting exposures

Many industrialised working populations are ageing and prolonged sitting exposures are prevalent across occupational sectors. The purpose of this work was to determine the effect of age and sex on passive spine stiffness, postures and discomfort in response to seated work. A total of 34 participants were recruited, with 17 older adults with an average age of (standard deviation) 63.7 (±3.9) years and 17 younger adults aged 23.8 (±5.0) years. Participants were asked to sit continuously for 90?min while typing. Baseline passive spine stiffness was higher in older adults at 40% flexion compared to younger adults (p?=?.0233). Older adults sat in less normalised flexion, at 33.4% (±16.4) compared to 60.9% (±20.2) in the younger group (p?=?.0003). Discomfort was higher among older adults in the neck, right shoulder and middle back regions (p?<?.0086). An understanding of age-specific responses to workplace exposures is essential to determine whether age-specific interventions are warranted.

 

Practitioner summary: Older adults had higher passive spine stiffness and sat with less flexion during prolonged sitting. Discomfort was higher among older adults and occurred earlier in the simulation compared to younger participants, indicating that interventions, such as walking breaks may need to be implemented earlier during sitting for aged workers.     

Comparison of visual fatigue caused by head-mounted display for virtual reality and two-dimensional display using objective and subjective evaluation

This study aimed to evaluate objective and subjective visual fatigue experienced before and after performing a visual task while using a head-mounted display for virtual reality (VR-HMD) and two-dimensional (2D) display. Binocular fusion maintenance (BFM) was measured using a binocular open-view Shack–Hartmann wavefront aberrometer equipped with liquid crystal shutters. Twelve healthy subjects performed the BFM test and completed a questionnaire regarding subjective symptoms before and after performing a visual task that induces low visually induced motion sickness (VIMS). BFM (p = .87) and total subjective eye symptom scores (p = .38) were not significantly different between both groups, although these values were significantly lower after the visual task than before the task within both groups (p < .05). These findings suggest that visual fatigue after using a VR-HMD is not significantly different from that after using a 2D display in the presence of low-VIMS VR content.

Practitioner summary: Objective and subjective evaluation of visual fatigue were not significantly different with the use of a head-mounted display for virtual reality (VR-HMD) and two-dimensional display. These results should be valuable not only to engineers developing VR content but also to researchers involved in the evaluation of visual fatigue using VR-HMD.

Abbreviations: VR: virtual reality; VR-HMD: head-mounted display for virtual reality; BFM: binocular fusion maintenance; BWFA: binocular open-view Shack–Hartmann wavefront aberrometer     

Simulation-based evaluation of an in-vehicle smart situation awareness enhancement system

Situation awareness (SA) constitutes a critical factor in road safety, strongly related to accidents. This paper describes the evaluation of a proposed SA enhancement system (SAES) that exploits augmented reality through a head-up display (HUD). Two SAES designs were evaluation (information rich vs. minimal information) using a custom-made simulator and the Situation Awareness Global Assessment Technique with performance and EEG measures. The paper describes the process of assessing the SA of drivers using the SAES, through a series of experiments with participants in a Cave Automatic Virtual Environment. The effectiveness of the SAES was tested in a within-group research design. The results showed that the information rich (radar-style display) was superior to the minimal (arrow hazard indicator) design and that both SAES improved drivers’ SA and performance compared to the control (no HUD) design.

Practitioner Summary: Even though driver situation awareness is considered as one of the leading causes of road accidents, little has been done to enhance it. The current study demonstrates the positive effect of a proposed situation awareness enhancement system on driver situation awareness, through an experiment using virtual prototyping in a simulator.     

Role network measures to assess healthcare team adaptation to complex situations: the case of venous thromboembolism prophylaxis

Hospitals are complex environments that rely on clinicians working together to provide appropriate care to patients. These clinical teams adapt their interactions to meet changing situational needs. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis is a complex process that occurs throughout a patient’s hospitalisation, presenting five stages with different levels of complexity: admission, interruption, re-initiation, initiation, and transfer. The objective of our study is to understand how the VTE prophylaxis team adapts as the complexity in the process changes; we do this by using social network analysis (SNA) measures. We interviewed 45 clinicians representing 9 different cases, creating 43 role networks. The role networks were analysed using SNA measures to understand team changes between low and high complexity stages. When comparing low and high complexity stages, we found two team adaptation mechanisms: (1) relative increase in the number of people, team activities, and interactions within the team, or (2) relative increase in discussion among the team, reflected by an increase in reciprocity.

 

Practitioner Summary: The reason for this study was to quantify team adaptation to complexity in a process using social network analysis (SNA). The VTE prophylaxis team adapted to complexity by two different mechanisms, by increasing the roles, activities, and interactions among the team or by increasing the two-way communication and discussion throughout the team. We demonstrated the ability for SNA to identify adaptation within a team.     

Evaluating sociotechnical dynamics in a simulated remotely-piloted aircraft system: a layered dynamics approach

As coordination mechanisms change and technology failures occur, a sociotechnical system must reorganise itself across human and technological layers to maintain effectiveness. We present a study examining reorganisation across communication, controls and vehicle layers of a remotely-piloted aircraft system (RPAS) using a layered dynamics approach. Team members (pilot; navigator; photographer) performed 5 simulated RPAS missions using different operator configurations, including all-human and human-autonomy teams. Reorganization (operationally defined using entropy) time series measured the changing system reorganisation profiles under different operator configurations and following autonomy failures. Correlations between these reorganisation profiles and team effectiveness scores describe the manner in which the system had to be coordinated to maintain effectiveness under these changing conditions. Four unplanned autonomy failures were analysed to visualise system reorganisation following a technology failure. With its objective and real-time modelling and measurement capabilities, layered dynamics complements existing systems thinking tools for understanding sociotechnical complexity and enhancing system effectiveness.

Practitioner summary: A layered dynamics approach for understanding how a sociotechnical system dynamically reorganises itself is presented. The layered dynamics of RPAS were analysed under different operator configurations and following autonomy failures. Layered dynamics complements existing system-thinking tools for modelling sociotechnical system complexity and effectiveness.

Abbreviation: RPAS: remotely-piloted aircraft system; HIS: human-systems integration; EAST: event analysis of systemic teamwork; H1: hypothesis 1; H2: hypothesis 2; H3: hypothesis 3; CERTT-STE: cognitive engineering research on team tasks--synthetic task environment; AVO: air vehicle operator; PLO: payload operator; DEMPC: data exploitation, mission planning, and communications; ACT-R: adaptive control of thought-rational; sec: seconds; ANOVA: analysis of variance     

The effect of a passive trunk exoskeleton on metabolic costs during lifting and walking

The objective of this study was to assess how wearing a passive trunk exoskeleton affects metabolic costs, movement strategy and muscle activation during repetitive lifting and walking. We measured energy expenditure, kinematics and muscle activity in 11 healthy men during 5?min of repetitive lifting and 5?min of walking with and without exoskeleton. Wearing the exoskeleton during lifting, metabolic costs decreased as much as 17%. In conjunction, participants tended to move through a smaller range of motion, reducing mechanical work generation. Walking with the exoskeleton, metabolic costs increased up to 17%. Participants walked somewhat slower with shortened steps while abdominal muscle activity slightly increased when wearing the exoskeleton. Wearing an exoskeleton during lifting decreased metabolic costs and hence may reduce the development of fatigue and low back pain risk. During walking metabolic costs increased, stressing the need for a device that allows disengagement of support depending on activities performed.

Practitioner summary: Physiological strain is an important risk factor for low back pain. We observed that an exoskeleton reduced metabolic costs during lifting, but had an opposite effect while walking. Therefore, exoskeletons may be of benefit for lifting by decreasing physiological strain but should allow disengagement of support when switching between tasks.

Abbreviations: COM: centre of mass; EMG: electromyography; LBP: low back pain; MVC: maximum voluntary isometric contraction; NIOSH: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health; PLAD: personal lift augmentation device; PWS: preferred walking speed without exoskeleton; PWSX: preferred walking speed with exoskeleton; ROM: range of motion; RER: respiratory exchange ratio; V ?O2max: maximum rate of oxygen consumption     

Staying on your feet: the effectiveness of posture and handles in counteracting balance perturbation

Stairways, public transport and inclined walkways are often considered as sites with higher likelihood of falls due to a sudden loss of balance. Such sites are usually marked with warning signs, equipped with non-slip surfaces and handles or handrails to avert or decrease this likelihood. Especially, handles are supposed to provide additional support in cases of a sudden loss of balance. However, the mechanisms of using handles for balance at different heights are not yet fully disclosed. We simulated full body perturbations by applying an anterior force to the waist and investigated effectiveness and mechanisms of balance recovery in five different postures: step stance and normal stance with or without holding handles at different heights. Results indicate that both step stance and holding handles at different vertical positions sufficiently assist balance recovery, compared to normal stance. While there was no significant effect of handle in CoM displacement, the shoulder height handle required the lowest handle force, indicating a difference in using the handle.

Practitioner summary: To investigate handle use for balance recovery, we perturbed healthy young adults in different standing positions. Even though the use of different handles had a similar effect, the lowest forces were exerted on the shoulder height handle indicating a preferred handle position for balance recovery.

Abbreviation: AP: antero-posterior; CNS: Central nervous system; CoM: Center of Mass; CoMmax: Maximal displacement of the center of mass; CoP: Center of pressure; FHmax: Maximal resultant force exerted on the handle; hFHmax: Maximal horizontal force exerted on the handle; vFHmax; Maximal vertical force exerted on the handle; M1-M8: Perturbation force magnitude