Development of a Dynamic Long-Term Water Allocation Model for Agriculture and Industry Water Demands

Demands growth and water resources limitation, enforce water sector policy makers to integrate water supply–demand interactions in a coherent framework for efficient water allocation. Water supply–demand interaction, changes long-term trend of water demands, which in turn has a substantial influence on water allocation. Researches on water allocation modeling lack adequate projection of relationship between water supply and demand. Socio-economic factors representing water allocation stakeholders’ benefits, account for the main share of water supply–demand interaction. Identification, representation and consideration of these factors in a water allocation model, is the main limitation of researches on this issue. In this paper a new long-term water allocation model at basin level is developed and introduced. This model considers water supply–demand interaction in agriculture and industry sectors, by use of socio-economic parameters; such as, production, cultivated land area, revenue and employment. The model main advantage is its ability to reflect the interrelationship between essential hydro-system and supply–demand components. It can explore both socio-economic and water allocation consequences of various policy choices. The model is used to assess two different development policies at basin level. The first one is fourth 5-year development plan of Iran, which fixes predefined growth rate for different sectors. The second one assumes the present state continues up to the end of planning horizon. A typical multi-reservoir water basin is modeled and analyzed for two policies. Indices that summarize long-term state of hydro-system and stakeholders are defined and used in policies assessment and decision making. Results of these assessments show fourth 5-year development policy provides opportunities for substantial improvement in water allocation and stakeholders’ benefits.     

Estimating the Potential Impacts of Irrigation Water Pricing Using Multicriteria Decision Making Modelling. An Application to Northern Greece

A great challenge of the current European water policy is the implementation of volumetric water pricing in the agricultural sector, especially of Mediterranean countries, where irrigation is a necessary precondition of agricultural production and farmers’ income, but also the major consumer of water. The overall aim of the present work is to develop a methodology that will be suitable for the estimation of the potential environmental, economic and social impacts of irrigation water pricing. For this purpose, Multi-Attribute Utility Theory is implemented in order to simulate agricultural decision making at various water pricing scenarios. Water demand functions are then elicited, by means of the best crop and water allocation (farmers’ decisions) in each scenario. The European Water Framework Directive recommends that any issue concerning water resources management (including water pricing policies) should be developed at the river basin level. In this framework, a cluster analysis is performed to partition the river basin area (namely, Loudias River Basin, located in Northern Greece) into a small number of homogeneous sub-regions. The differential impact of water pricing in each region is then analyzed, and finally, an average water demand function is formulated for the whole river basin.     

Optimal reservoir operation using Nash bargaining solution and evolutionary algorithms

Optimizing reservoir operation is critical to ongoing sustainable water resources management. However, different stakeholders in reservoir management often have different interests and resource competition may provoke conflicts. Resource competition warrants the use of bargaining solution approaches to develop an optimal operational scheme. In this study, the Nash bargaining solution method was used to formulate an objective function for water allocation in a reservoir. Additionally, the genetic and ant colony optimization algorithms were used to achieve optimal solutions of the objective function. The Mahabad Dam in West Azerbaijan, Iran, was used as a case study site due to its complex water allocation requirements for multiple stakeholders, including agricultural, domestic, industrial, and environmental sectors. The relative weights of different sectors in the objective function were determined using a discrete kernel based on the priorities stipulated by the government (the Lake Urmia National Restoration Program). According to the policies for the agricultural sector, water allocation optimization for different sectors was carried out using three scenarios: (1) the current situation, (2) optimization of the cultivation pattern, and (3) changes to the irrigation system. The results showed that the objective function and the Nash bargaining solution method led to a water utility for all stakeholders of 98%. Furthermore, the two optimization algorithms were used to achieve the global optimal solution of the objective function, and reduced the failure of the domestic sector by 10% while meeting the required objective in water-limited periods. As the conflicts among stakeholders may become more common with a changing climate and an increase in water demand, these results have implications for reservoir operation and associated policies.     

霍林河流域水权制度建设特点及思考

霍林河流域初始水权分配试点的主要工作内容,是霍林河流域水量分配方案的编制,即以现状用水为基础,考虑发展需求,按照分水原则制定出一套省(自治区)际水量分配成果。在下游生态用水和上游工业用水的权衡中,将湿地作为用水户进行水量分配,分配相对充足的水量以保证湿地生态。在工业用水和农业用水分配方案中,优先考虑农业用水。本次水量分配方案考虑了弱势方的基本权利保障,为后续的水权制度建设奠定了基础。     

漳河灌区节水型社会的特征及目标体系研究

为了了解漳河灌区节水型社会的特征及其目标体系,更好地利用有限的水资源,结合国际合作项目对漳河灌区各部门的水量分配及其变化趋势进行分析,并从灌区各级水利设施的作用、节水灌溉对农业生产的影响和节水灌溉的发展方向等方面对节水型社会的特征及目标体系进行了研究.分析结果表明:建设节水型社会有利于农业节水,可以将更多的水资源应用于工业生产及其他重要行业.同时可以促进水资源的合理利用,还可以降低灌溉成本,减轻农民负担.     

Economic Sharing of Basin Water Resources between Competing Stakeholders

This paper describes an application of linear programming (LP) methods for optimal allocation of water among competing stakeholders that would achieve the highest economic return from water use in the agricultural section of the Sefidrud Basin, northern Iran. In a network presentation of the basin, the nodes stand for the supply and demand points and arcs represent reaches. The constraints of the LP model are the network structure of the basin (flows, stream geography and channel capacity), the available surface and ground water in each node, the environmental demand in different reaches, upper and lower bands of supply in each node and water balances. Optimal policies are derived for current and future demand. The optimal policies indicate that, at present, the basin water resources satisfy the demands of all stakeholders. Although, the results show that there is no conflict for supplying stakeholders’ current demands, they indicate that the current proportion of surface water used is not optimal compared with the proportion of ground water used. The results also indicate that some future demands of provinces with lower marginal value of water are unsatisfied and that this could cause conflict between stakeholders. Since in some nodes the optimal solutions suggest using surface water even where they have available ground water, they are categorized as having a higher possibility to construct dams in the basin.     

探讨适合长江流域特点的水量分配研究框架

长江流域水资源相对丰富,但存在降水时空分布不均、自然灾害频繁、城市需水增长快、供求矛盾加剧、水污染加重、用水效率低下等水资源问题.三峡水库的建设运用,外流域调水工程的实施打破了长江原有的水平衡.保证流域水资源的合理开发利用与调配对流域社会经济的发展极其重要,了解流域本身的水资源特点和问题,研究河流生态用水,分析不同功能、不同区域的水量分配额度,提出区域社会经济发展的水量分配方案,是水资源管理的基础,也是保障流域水资源的合理调配和可持续开发利用,维护河流健康发展的需求和根本.对适合长江流域特点的水量分配研究框架进行了探讨.     

太湖流域水流生态补偿机制研究

为解决太湖流域跨界水环境治理中不同区域利益失衡的问题,采用利益相关者分析方法,确定流域水流生态补偿主客体,通过流域重要河湖和跨省(市)水环境治理投入测算补偿标准,提出了以废水排放量、用水量和人均GDP共3项指标测算各省(市)筹措资金,从污染治理和环境保护补偿两个方面确定资金分配量。以2017年为基准年,进行了流域水流生态补尝方案资金筹措和拨付测算。补偿标准为30亿元,除中央引导性资金15亿元外,江苏省、浙江省和上海市筹措资金分别为7.09亿、3.00亿、5.91亿元,资金拨付量分别为12.43亿、8.13亿、9.45亿元。各省(市)出资比例基本与其在流域内所占面积和经济发展状况相适应,各省(市)资金拨付量与其在流域上下游空间布局和水环境治理任务也基本吻合。     

Principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation

The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.     

Economic Benefits of Reservoirs in the Irrigated Agriculture

Abstract

In the Jordan Valley of Jordan, the demand for water and ability to control its location, timing, quality, and quantity are becoming critical. The competition for water between the urban and agricultural sectors is increasing. There is a general trend in Jordan to reduce water allocated for agricultural use. Increasing the price of irrigation water or restricting the planted areas of water consuming crops, such as bananas, has been implemented during the recent growing season. The main objective of this paper is to highlight the impact of optimal allocation of irrigation water by building storage capacity on the economy of Jordan Valley. A linear programming technique is used, and the main results show that for proper management of water storage capacity, the suggested cropping pattern would generate $88.2 million, whereas the actual cropping pattern generated $74.4 million. The optimal water demand schedule is distributed according to the needs of the planted crops, and water demand has been allocated in an efficient way. In addition, appropriate management of storage capacity has solved the problem of water scarcity during the summer months, when peak production takes place. Storage-transfer system between locations played a significant role in reallocating irrigation water through the storage system. This compensates to a high degree in keeping the agricultural production more stable in physical and monetary units.     

Managing Water Supply and Demand to Achieve Economic and Environmental Objectives: Application of Mathematical Programming and ANFIS Models

The integrated management of water supply and demand has been considered by many policymakers; due to its complexity the decision makers have faced many challenges so far. In this study, we proposed an efficient framework for managing water supply and demand in line with the economic and environmental objectives of the basin. To design this framework, a combination of ANFIS and multi-objective augmented ε-constraint programming models and TOPSIS were used. First, using hydrological data from 2001 to 2017, the rate of water release from the dam reservoir was estimated with the ANFIS model; afterwards, its allocation to agricultural areas was performed by combining multi-objective augmented ε-constraint models and TOPSIS. To prove the reliability of the proposed model, the southern Karkheh basin in Khuzestan province, Iran, was considered as a case study. The results have showed that this model is able to reduce irrigation water consumption and to improve its economic productivity in the basin.

     

基于生态位理论的黄河流域用水结构分析

为分析和探究黄河流域用水结构的变化特征,科学支撑流域水资源合理配置与调度,保障流域可持续发展,以黄河流域为研究对象,基于生态位理论构建了用水结构生态位及其熵值模型,分析了流域及流域内主要省区用水结构演变趋势和特征,并与发达国家用水特征作比较。在此基础上提出了相关建议。结果表明:黄河流域的农业用水生态位(0.7～0.78)最大但呈现波动减少趋势,工业用水生态位(0.12～0.15)次之且变化趋势为波动且有所下降,生活用水生态位(0.06～0.08)与城镇公共及生态用水生态位(0.03～0.09)相对较少但皆有不同程度的增长趋势。各省区的生态位熵值差异较大,表明流域及各省区间用水结构差异较大。统计年间宁夏、内蒙古及山东的农业用水占有率高于全流域,陕西、山西、河南及甘肃的工业用水占有率高于全流域,各省区城镇公共及生态用水的占有率变化剧烈,陕西、山西及河南的生活用水占有率高于全流域。相较于黄河流域,美国的工业用水(0.42～0.52)在用水结构中的优势更加突出,农业用水(0.31～0.44)相对处于劣势地位;两个区域生活用水在用水结构中的地位相对其他的用水类型更为接近。     

Transboundary Water Resources Allocation under Various Parametric Conditions: The Case of the Euphrates & Tigris River Basin

The literature on transboundary water resources allocation modelling is still short on encompassing and analyzing complex geographic multiparty nature of basins. This study elaborates the Inter Temporal Euphrates and Tigris River Basin Model (ITETRBM), which is a linear programming based transboundary water resources allocation model maximizing net economic benefit from allocation of scarce water resources to energy generation, urban, and agricultural uses. The elaborations can be categorized in two directions: First, agricultural and urban demand nodes are spatially identified with their relative elevations and distances to water resources supplies (dams, reservoirs, and lakes). Digital elevation model (DEM) database are intensely processed in geographic information system (GIS) environment. Second, the agricultural irrigable lands are restructured into a pixel based decision making units (DMUs) in order to be able to see the spatial extent of optimally irrigated land, and then optimization program is converted from linear programming (LP) to a mixed integer programming (MIP). The model applications are designed to cover a series of sensitivity analyses encompassing the various transboundary management, energy and agricultural use value, and transportation cost scenarios over the optimal uses of the Euphrates and Tigris Basin (ETRB) resources. The model results are visually presented via GIS in order to show the transboundary upstream and downstream spatial impacts of these selected parameters. The findings are i) system parameters significantly alter the spatial extent of water resources allocation in the ETRB, and ii) the magnitudes of the parameters also explains the tradeoffs between agriculture and energy sectors as much as upstream and downstream water uses of countries.     

浅谈北京市水资源的合理配置

分析北京市水资源配置的现状及问题,提出采用宏观调控和市场机制有机结合的水资源合理配置模式。在水资源承载能力的基础上,充分挖潜,开发非常规水源。在水源调配方面,优先使用南水北调水,其次为地表水,最大限度地涵养地下水。增加环境用水,加大工业、生活、农业的节水力度,提高水价。在进行水资源分配时,优先保证生活用水和必需的生态环境用水,对经济用水实行以供定需,在经济用水内部进行资源优化配置,优水优用,分质供水。形成以本流域供水为主,外流域调水为辅,常规水源与非常规水源相结合的综合开发网络,实现国民经济用水和生态环境用水的兼顾,实现以水资源的可持续利用支持北京经济社会可持续发展的目标。     

对水资源配置的认识与思考

水资源配置包括两个阶段,即在考虑流域生态环境用水和流域公共用水的前提下,将流域可利用水资源量分配到流域内的各个区域;各省按照流域水资源配置的份额,在省内进行再配置.水权明晰后水资源配置要按照经过批准的流域水资源配置规划方案,建立适应社会主义市场经济体制要求和符合我国水资源特征的水市场,规范水权转让行为.做好水资源配置工作,要充分发挥流域机构在水资源配置中的主导作用,正确处理水资源配置与预测分析的关系,深入分析、研究和处理流域水资源配置的重大问题,认真做好协调平衡工作.     

Water Pricing for Multi-sectoral Allocation: A Case Study

This paper presents a case study for the allocation pattern of available water resources within and among competing sectors that would achieve the highest economic return from water use. For this purpose, an optimization model using linear programming was developed. Considering constraints on greenhouse area, crop production and seasonal per capita water requirements along with the area-specific conditions and potential growth, the optimal water allocation pattern between the prevailing and future consuming sectors was determined. The results indicated that, at present, water resources are misallocated as well as under-priced; current municipal and agricultural water prices represent 61% and 69%, respectively, of the actual water cost. With the development of tourism in the area, the agricultural sector is expected to diminish as more profitable uses of water evolve.     

基于高质量发展理念的沅江流域城乡供水及灌溉规划研究

本文以沅江流域为例,通过研究分析流域自然和社会经济特点,结合社会经济发展趋势及预测规划年流域需水要求,拟定城乡供水及灌溉发展规划意见,在坚持节水优先、充分挖掘当地已有供水工程潜力的基础上,优化水资源配置,加强水利基础设施建设,满足沅江流域规划水平年的供水、灌溉需求,助力流域社会经济高质量发展。     

基于改进的Shapley值法的农业节水补偿额测算方法

农业节水主体将节约的水转移到其它行业发挥效益的过程,是农业节水主体和其它非农行业主体合作以提高水资源利用效益的过程。在这个过程中,对农业节水的补偿可以看作是对合作收益的分配。本文在Shapley值法的基础上,综合考虑合作主体在合作中贡献的收益、承担的风险、投入的资源,及其利用资源的效率对收益分配的影响,运用半结构模糊数学理论确定影响因素的权重,提出新的农业节水补偿额定量测算方法。最后运用该方法对内蒙古南岸灌区农业用水转移中的农业节水补偿额进行试算。分析表明,该方法较客观地反映了农业节水主体的贡献,符合公平和效率兼顾的原则,可为今后确定农业节水补偿额提供依据。     

Basin Initial Water Rights Allocation under Multiple Uncertainties: a Trade-off Analysis

Economic losses and inequities caused by uncertainties in the availability of water intensify the competition between water sectors, making the allocation of water rights of vital importance for minimizing water conflicts. In this study, an Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Programming (ITSP) model for water rights allocation is developed that contains an industrial allocation preference coefficient and involves the risk control of Conditional Value-at-Risk theory and Gini coefficient constraints (ITSP-CG). Using China’s Taihu Basin as a case study, it is shown that optimized water rights allocation schemes can reduce the risk of inequitable localized water deficits, a narrower confidence interval results in higher economic loss, and, when the confidence level is fixed, tighter control of water availability results in water efficient sectors having an increasing preference for allocation schemes. It is also shown that Basin Authorities need to trade-off the equitable allocation of water rights and economic returns over a particular planning period.

     

Will the energy industry drain the water used for agricultural irrigation in the Yellow River basin?

This article employs the case of the Yellow River basin to advance understanding of the water–energy–food nexus by demonstrating how the country’s energy and agriculture sectors are competing for limited water supplies and by quantifying the future water demands in the two sectors. The results show that in 2030 the water demands for food and energy are likely to increase by less than 4 km³ and 1 km³, respectively, in the Yellow River basin. The analysis suggests that agricultural water savings and inter-basin water transfers are the main ways to ensure sufficient water flows through the basin to fulfil demand for both sectors while preserving the natural ecosystems.