赵经华，王长新，李双喜，石铁玉，庞毅

文章介绍用VB编写的一个泄洪风险分析软件。其特点是具有可视化界面，易修改。可对不同的泄洪洞进行繁琐计算。     

消能工的风险及经济分析

本文从经济、风险两方面论证了降低消能设施的泄洪标准后,可以取得显著的经济效益。已建工程多年来的运行经验证明了相应的破坏风险是完全可以为工程所接受的。由此,泄洪建筑物消能防冲设施的泄洪标准的降低,对节约工程投资,加速水电工程建设有较大的意义。     

泄洪风险计算方法的分析

介绍了泄洪风险计算常用的7种方法,并且分别指出了他们的优缺点,重点讨论了蒙特卡罗模拟法。     

模拟最大熵法及其在水库泄洪风险计算中的应用

基于随机模拟(Monte-Corlo)和最大熵方法的优点,提出了风险计算的模拟最大熵法,并建立了相应的数学模型.将该方法应用于水库工程的泄洪风险计算,并对其计算结果进行了验证、分析和比较.结果表明,在信息相同的条件下,此方法不但可以充分利用已知条件,得到待求的概率分布及风险值,而且在计算速度上也比随机模拟方法快20多倍...     

开敞式溢洪道泄洪风险计算

泄洪建筑物水力风险的计算在世界水利界是一个新的有意义的课题。按国际安全度联合委员会(JCSS)建议的JC法进行水力风险计算,比目前水力风险计算中采用的积分法简便、实用,该法更适用于多个随机变量。 近代水利工程的设计不再仅仅是安全和经济的平衡,而是安全,经济和风险三位一体的产物。溢洪道设计标准的选择直接关系大坝的安全与投资。根据我们的调查,我国相当一部分大中型工程的洪水设计标准都多取水利电力部1978年颁发试行的设计标准的上     

基于随机模拟的水库泄洪风险分析

在对水库泄洪过程中的风险因子进行识别的基础上,采用方差分析的方法选择主要风险因子并建立了水库泄洪风险随机模拟模型。实例应用表明,该模型能够有效地辨识出影响水库泄洪的主要风险因子,得出的水库泄洪风险参数能够代表整个调洪计算过程中的主要不确定性。     

用蒙特卡罗法进行泄洪风险分析

本文以吉林台水电站为例,运用蒙特卡罗法计算了考虑洪水过程中洪峰位置不同时的泄洪风险,对洪峰位置靠前和洪峰位置靠后的洪水过程的泄洪风险分别进行了计算,结果表明后者的风险值大于前者,这说明洪水过程中洪峰位置的不确定性对泄洪风险的影响是不可忽略的。     

高坝泄洪安全关键技术研究

我国位于狭窄河谷的大型水利水电工程在泄洪方面的主要特点是高水头、大流量、大泄洪功率,泄洪安全问题十分突出.文中总结并探讨了我国在高坝泄洪消能防护、泄洪振动控制、泄洪雾化防护、掺气减蚀、泄洪安全预警等方面技术的主要研究进展,提出了提高有关泄洪安全性的技术途径,可供有关工程设计和研究参考.     

白莲崖水库泄洪建筑物优化布置试验研究

白莲崖水库是安徽省首座超百米的碾压混凝土高坝,枢纽布置采用中底孔联合泄洪,泄洪建筑物具有工作水头高、相互干扰等特点,设计难度较大.文中介绍白莲崖水库整体模型试验、减压试验、掺气减蚀试验前后近十年研究工作的主要成果和泄洪建筑物平面布置、体型细部尺寸优化的过程.     

Nutrient Regeneration by Zooplankton in Southern Lake Huron

Rates of nutrient regeneration by zooplankton (μmol/mg dry wt/hr) in southern Lake Huron from April to August 1975 ranged from undetectable to 2.6 for total phosphorus (TP), undetectable to 0.8 for total soluble phosphorus (TSP), undetectable to 0.12 for soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), undetectable to 0.97 for ammonia (NH₃), undetectable to 3.8 for nitrate plus nitrite (NO₃ + NO₂), and undetectable to 2.9 for silica (SiO₂). Two diel experiments were conducted. Times of highest rates of regeneration varied for the different nutrients on these dates. Using the average concentration of zooplankton in the surface waters during this study, the calculated average concentration of nutrients regenerated by zooplankton was 0.012 μmol P/L/ hr for TP, 0.0046 μmol P/L/ hr for TSP, 0.0016 μmol P/L/ hr for SRP, 0.0146 μmol N/L/ hr for NH₃, 0.043 μmol N/L/ hr for NO₃ + NO₂, and 0.058 μmol Si/L/ hr for SiO₂. The contribution of nutrient regeneration by zooplankton to the turnover time of the various nutrients in the surface waters was calculated to be 212 hr for TP, 239 hr for TSP, 69 hr for SRP, 62 hr for NH₃, 505 hr for NO₃ + NO₂, and 531 hr for SiO₂. Although the turnover time for most of these nutrients is fairly slow, the nutrient pools for SRP and NH₃ are replenished in less than 70 hr by nutrient regeneration. Zooplankton therefore appear to play a significant role in the cycling of SRP and NH₃ in southern Lake Huron.     

多沙粗沙区水土保持措施组合的调查分析

通过对黄土高塬多沙粗沙区涉及较多的黄土丘陵沟壑区和黄土高塬沟壑区几条典型小流域和现有治理模式的调查分析，初步确定了多少粗沙区两个主要侵蚀类型区的水土保持措施组合方案。结果表明，黄土丘陵沟壑区第1副区和第2副区各水土保持措施面积占总措施面积的百分比：水平梯田18％-25％，人工造林45％-55％，人工种草20％-25％，坝地5.5％-7.5％，水地0.5％-2.7％，黄土高塬沟壑区北部和南部则分别为基本农田38％-50％、25％-38％，水保林43％-53％、33％-43％，经济林4％-15％、15％-25％，种草2％-6％、6％-20％.     

编制采砂可行性论证报告的几点认识

采砂可行性论证是采砂审批许可的重要依据。根据目前采砂可行性论证报告编制的依据与适用范围以及编制的主要内容,结合多年编制采砂可行性论证报告的工作经验,阐述了对采砂可行性论证报告编制的重点和难点的几点认识,并建议研究出台采砂可行性论证报告编制的水利技术标准,以更好规范和指导采砂可行性论证的编制工作。     

湖南南部两水电站水情长期预报方法

介绍了建立水电站水情长期数值预报的思路和方法,应用该方法并根据气候特点对湖南南部的欧阳海水电站和双牌水电站作了水情的长期预报.从年平均流量、4～6月总流量及7～9月总流量这3个主要项目来看,欧阳海水电站的预报效果较好,双牌水电站的年平均流量和4～6月总流量预报效果也较好,而7～9月的预报效果差.另外,研究发现,这两个水电站的水情有着密切的关系,这一关系在预报中可以用来参照验证.     

抢险救援专业部队的专业技术能力

如何提升抢险救援能力建设,是水电部队转型后最为迫切的课题,厘清抢险救援的核心能力是解决问题的关键之一。论证了专业技术能力是抢险救援专业部队的核心能力,是加快转变抢险救援战斗力生成模式的关键。提出深化思想认识、建立抢险救援技术体系、加强科技人才队伍建设等六个加强专业技术能力建设的举措,防范专业技术能力弱化或虚化,开拓有水电部队特色的专业技术能力生成之路,确保部队抢险救援"能打仗、打胜仗"。     

梯级水电站开发顺序多目标优化方法的研究

考虑到梯级电站联合运行及电站投入运行过程容量增长的跳跃性特征，建立了以折现投资和累计过剩容量最小化为目标、嵌入水库联调优化问题的多目标复合排序模型.电站投入的序及投入时间的两维优化问题转化成只需对序进行优化的一维问题给出了理论证明.提出多目标动态规划的非劣解生成技术-直接向量优化法，并给出了理论证明。     

Fishing community preferences and willingness to pay for alternative developments of ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) for Lake Naivasha,Kenya

Ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) is an important complement to existing fisheries management approaches to maintain ecosystem health and function; to translate goals and aspirations for sustainability into operational objectives, the preferences of the fishing communities should be considered for successful implementation of EBFM. This study analysed the preferences of the fishing community for alternative EBFM developments for Lake Naivasha, Kenya, and estimated the willingness to pay, using a choice experiment approach. Protection of fish breeding grounds, improving tilapia fish abundance and accessibility of fishing zones were identified as relevant EBFM attributes for the choice experiment. A monetary attribute (payment for fishing permit) was also included. In addition to a conditional logit model, mixed logit models are estimated to account for heterogeneity in preferences. This study results indicated fishing communities are most concerned about tilapia fish abundance and protection of fish breeding grounds. The welfare measures reveal that members of the Lake Naivasha fishing community are willing to pay a considerable sum of money for ecosystem services improvement, relative to their low income derived from fishing. These study findings highlighted that evaluating the preferences of the fishing community and valuing the fishery at an ecosystem level are vital to prioritize and choose between alternative interventions for sound implementation of EBFM.     

辽河干流河道演变与维持河道稳定的输沙水量研究

在对辽河干流河道冲淤演变特性观测研究的基础上，对维持河道稳定的输沙水量进行了分析计算。研究成果表明，辽河河道输沙水量与来沙量大小成正比，上中游河段输沙水量为16.15亿m3，下游河段输沙水量为26.22亿m3，辽河干流下游河段多年平均输沙水量小于不淤(高效)输沙水量，说明现有的来水量不足以维持下游河道的冲淤平衡，要保证下游河道不发生持续性淤积，还需要采取其它措施增加输沙水量，以便维持下游河道的相对稳定。     

The influence of riparian shade on lowland stream water temperatures in southern England and their viability for brown trout

Suitable thermal conditions in streams are necessary for fish and predictions of future climate changes infer that water temperatures may regularly exceed tolerable ranges for key species. Riparian woodland is considered as a possible management tool for moderating future thermal conditions in streams for the benefit of fish communities. The spatial and temporal variation of stream water temperature was therefore investigated over 3 years in lowland rivers in the New Forest (southern England) to establish the suitability of the thermal regime for fish in relation to riparian shade in a warm water system. Riparian shade was found to have a marked influence on stream water temperature, particularly in terms of moderating diel temperature variation and limiting the number of days per year that maximum temperatures exceeded published thermal thresholds for brown trout. Expansion of riparian woodland offers potential to prevent water temperature exceeding incipient lethal limits for brown trout and other fish species. A relatively low level of shade (20–40%) was found to be effective in keeping summer temperatures below the incipient lethal limit for brown trout, but ca. 80% shade generally prevented water temperatures exceeding the range reported for optimum growth of brown trout. Higher levels of shade are likely to be necessary to protect temperature‐sensitive species from climate warming. © Crown copyright 2010.     

The assessment of suspended sediment inputs to Volta Lake

Information on a river basin's sediment yield is an important requirement for water resources development and management. In the Volta River basin of Ghana, data on suspended sediment yield are limited due to the lack of logistic support for systematic sediment sampling activities. This paper presents the results of a study using the available measurements of suspended sediment transport for eight monitoring stations in order to develop a simple predictive tool for estimating the suspended sediment yields for catchments for which no sediment measurements had been undertaken. Regression analysis was used to establish a relationship between specific suspended sediment yield and both the mean annual run‐off and the drainage basin area. The prediction model was used to estimate the sediment loads of the Volta River and its main tributaries (Black Volta, White Volta and Oti Rivers) in order to estimate the total suspended sediment input to the reservoir and the equivalent specific suspended sediment yield from the catchment surface. Although these sediment yield values are relatively low by world standards, the results obtained provide a basis for assessing future sedimentation problems in Lake Volta and for underpinning the development of sediment control and management strategies for the reservoir.