海平面上升对长江江阴以下河段风暴潮增水的影响

随全球气候变暖,海平面呈加速上升态势。长江口地处西北太平洋风暴盆地的西北缘,地势低洼,被评估为风暴潮灾害影响下的脆弱区。为研究海平面上升后长江江阴以下河段风暴潮位的变化,建立了精细化长江口天文潮-风暴潮耦合数学模型。该模型模拟分析了海平面上升后,在9711号“芸妮”和1509号“灿鸿”这两种典型台风作用下,长江口近岸天文潮和风暴增水的响应规律。研究结果表明:预计未来100年,海平面抬升70 cm后,长江口平均潮位上升50～80 cm。长江口江阴以下河段及近岸区域增水极值略微下降。增水极值自上游江阴到下游牛皮礁先增后减,增水极值沿程最大值的具体位置与台风路径、台风强度密切相关。研究可为中长期长江口沿岸城镇防洪排涝提供一定的理论依据。     

浙江沿海风暴潮增水对台风移速的响应研究

基于MIKE21建立东中国海-浙江沿海嵌套潮流模型,采用修正的Holland风场对1509号台风“Chanhom”产生的风暴潮进行模拟,通过与实测数据对比验证表明该模型模拟结果合理可靠。基于验证模型,对1949—2020年间2个极端移速台风（低移速台风“Mary”和高移速台风“Kai-tak”）进行模拟分析,为剥离单一移速变量对增水的影响,以1509号台风“Chan-hom”为基础,设置3种台风移速（2倍移速、实际移速及50%移速）对风暴潮增水影响进行研究,得到如下结论：（1）低移速台风尽管登陆时强度低于高移速台风,但对浙江沿海海域的增水影响时间更长,台风“Kai-tak”增水0.5 m及以上的持续时间仅4 h,而“Mary”却长达12 h;(2)台风移速越慢,向岸风影响时间越长,舟山群岛以西至钱塘江海域的增水随着移速的减小呈上升趋势,杭州湾南岸具有较大洪水及内涝隐患;（3）在台风登陆点朱家尖,3种移速下的增水及风速相差不大,最大增水出现在台风登陆前风速最大时刻,而在舟山外海,增水大小受潮位波动影响呈现周期变化,低潮位时增水较大,高潮位时增水较小。     

长江口登陆台风增水数值模拟

1810号强台风“安比”是1990年以来直接登陆上海的最强台风,却并未诱发较大风暴增水。采用ERA-Interim数据集作为背景风场资料建立了双重嵌套的高分辨率风暴潮与天文潮耦合数学模型,研究了台风“安比”在长江口地区风暴潮增水特征及成因。结果表明:台风期间增水主要集中在长江口北支出口沿岸,而长江口南支在台风登陆后出现明显的减水过程,台风登陆位置导致了长江口南、北支增水分布的差异;移行风对台风路径右侧增水影响更大,除梯度风场的向岸风作用外,落潮期间移行风场的作用致使连兴港附近岸段风暴增水平均增幅26.8%;除台风强度外,台风路径也是影响长江口地区风暴增水大小的重要因素之一。     

舟山本岛海域“烟花”台风风暴高潮位研究

近年来登陆或严重影响浙江的强台风频率上升,北移次数增多,对舟山本岛及邻近岛屿经济活动威胁越来越大,开展舟山本岛风暴高潮位研究十分必要。分析了"烟花"台风在舟山本岛造成的风暴高潮位分布,基于海区的实测潮位资料及构建的风暴潮模型计算的风暴高潮位,揭示了本次风暴高潮位总体东部低、西部高、中部局部低值区的特征,中部局部低值区与天文高潮位的分布有关。本岛海域“烟花”台风风暴高潮位差异可达0.5 m以上;“烟花”台风若在本岛天文大潮高潮位登陆,定海至岱山风暴高潮位会继续抬高0.1~0.4 m;若南移至大目涂位置且在高潮位登陆则会造成本岛周边更高的风暴高潮位,超过本次风暴高潮位0.2~0.8 m。应高度重视风暴潮高潮位的区域差异性和变化特征,进一步提高区域风暴潮灾害防御能力。。     

琼州海峡台风风暴潮增水过程的数值分析

建立琼州海峡风暴潮与天文潮耦合数值模型,并通过1409号"威马逊"台风实测数据验证模型的可靠性,随后通过多组数值试验研究琼州海峡风暴潮与台风移动路径、最大风速半径及中心气压的关系。结果表明:台风移动路径与增水分布关系密切;随着台风最大风速半径的增大,琼州海峡区域风暴增水达到增水极值的时间提前且增水极值增大,但增水极值增加幅度逐渐减小,距离台风中心路径较近区域其增水极值受半径变化的影响相对较小。琼州海峡风暴增水极值随台风中心气压的降低而增大,台风中心气压降低10 h Pa,增水极值增加10%左右。     

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and influencing mechanisms of storm surge in Guangdong. Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay AreaEI北大核心CSCD

基于1970—2018年珠江口潮位站历史潮位资料，结合风暴潮数值模拟结果，统计分析了粤港澳大湾区风暴潮的时空分布特征并探讨了风暴潮增水影响机理。结果表明：在空间分布上，伶仃洋、狮子洋、前航道等区域出现较大增水的频率较高，与该区域特殊的地理位置及伶仃洋河口湾漏斗状形态产生的能量辐聚有关，增水极值与台风登陆地点和台风强度均有关系；风暴潮发生时间主要集中在7—9月，占全年总次数的74.4%；影响粤港澳大湾区的强台风以上级别的台风频次增加趋势明显，各站点历年最高潮位呈增加趋势，平均速率为0.02~0.03m/a；台风路径对风暴潮增水的空间分布有较大影响，当台风在大湾区西岸登陆，距离台风登陆点约2.5倍最大风速半径的位置可产生较大的增水值；最大增水随着台风中心压强的降低而升高，中心压强每下降10hPa，最大增水值上升0.4~1.1m；当台风移动速度接近8.3m/s，珠江口形成较为稳定的风暴潮水位梯度，产生较大的风暴潮增水。     

上海长江口风暴潮数值预报模型实例研究

风暴潮是一种灾害性的自然现象。为了有效提高风暴潮数值预报精度,以上海长江口沿海为研究对象,构建了长江口风暴潮数值预报模型。该模型能够模拟风暴潮与天文潮等多重因素作用下潮水位过程变化。为了验证模型,选取201718号超强台风"泰利"作为典型案例,并对该场台风过程引起的风暴增水进行了跟踪预报。经验证,台风"泰利"的中心位置距上海沿岸400 km以外,未造成超过1.00 m的风暴增水;且预报潮位精度良好,能够满足风暴潮预报要求。     

长江口登陆台风增水数值模拟——以“安比”为例

1810号强台风"安比"是1990年以来直接登陆上海的最强台风,却并未诱发较大风暴增水。采用ERAInterim数据集作为背景风场资料建立了双重嵌套的高分辨率风暴潮与天文潮耦合数学模型,研究了台风"安比"在长江口地区风暴潮增水特征及成因。结果表明:台风期间增水主要集中在长江口北支出口沿岸,而长江口南支在台风登陆后出现明显的减水过程,台风登陆位置导致了长江口南、北支增水分布的差异;移行风对台风路径右侧增水影响更大,除梯度风场的向岸风作用外,落潮期间移行风场的作用致使连兴港附近岸段风暴增水平均增幅26.8%;除台风强度外,台风路径也是影响长江口地区风暴增水大小的重要因素之一。     

台风“烟花”期间黄浦江上游洪水过程及高水位分析

为研究2021年第6号台风“烟花”期间黄浦江上游洪水过程和高水位特征，在统计分析实测资料的基础上，利用产汇流模型计算，分析了黄浦江上游洪水下泄过程，高水位时空分布特征及成因。结果表明：台风“烟花”前期，受潮位顶托影响，黄浦江上游边界潮水上溯明显，后期边界洪水显著增大，主要通过黄浦江上游干流下泄；受台风强度大、移速慢，风暴潮洪叠加，外河低潮过高，乘潮排水能力降低，黄浦江上游底水趋势性抬升等综合影响，黄浦江上游各潮位站最高水位普遍超历史，超历史幅度由北向南、由下游往上游递增。研究成果可为黄浦江上游防汛工程调度的优化完善提供基础支撑。     

琼州海峡附近海域2014年强台风下潮位的数值模拟与特征分析

建立了天文潮与风暴潮耦合模型,对2014年经过琼州海峡的1409号与1415号台风进行风暴潮数值模拟,比较表明,模拟结果与实测结果相吻合,数学模型具有较好的天文潮和风暴潮耦合计算适应性。结果表明:台风经过琼州海峡时,雷州半岛东部会出现最大增水,琼州海峡东部增水较为显著。1415号台风经过琼州海峡时,海口秀英站最高水位超警戒水位1.57 m,为有记录以来历史最高水位。     

潮汐河口闸下风暴潮特征模拟

潮汐河口闸下风暴潮水位对于河道防洪排水至关重要。以苏北里下河主要入海通道射阳河、黄沙河、新洋河和斗龙河等建闸河口为例,采用模型嵌套的方法,以平面二维数学模型模拟了里下河地区“9711”台风风暴潮期间闸下河段的潮汐水流和风暴潮运动过程,研究了闸下风暴潮水位相对河口风暴潮水位的变化特征。模拟结果显示,底摩擦、浅水变形、边界反射等相互作用影响,闸下风暴潮水位和潮汐水位存在一致的变化特性,即高潮位抬升,低潮位下降,潮差(增水)增加;涨潮历时缩短,落潮历时延长;风暴潮水位的变化幅度大于同时期的潮汐水位,风暴潮过程对于闸下排水具有显著影响。在与闸顶高程一致的上游水位条件下,相比天文潮过程,“9711”风暴潮过程可减少闸门过流流量的20%~25%。     

长江口风暴潮流场计算

利用一、二维数学模型，并考虑长江口深水航道治理工程的进展情况，对长江口区风暴潮流场进行了数值模拟计算。计算结果表明，治理工程对风暴潮引起的增长影响不显著，风暴潮增水期间潮位升高，涨、落潮流速及长江口北槽的分流会增大。     

Effects of cluster land reclamation projects on storm surge in Jiaojiang Estuary,China

Variations in coastline geometry caused by coastal engineering affect tides, storm surges, and storm tides. Three cluster land reclamation projects have been planned for construction in the Jiaojiang Estuary during the period from 2011 to 2023. They will cause significant changes in coastline geometry. In this study, a surge-tide coupled model was established based on a three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM). A series of numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of variations in coastline geometry on tides, storm surges, and storm tides. This model was calibrated using data observed at the Haimen and Ruian gauge stations and then used to reproduce the tides, storm surges, and storm tides in the Jiaojiang Estuary caused by Typhoon Winnie in 1997. Results show that the high tide level, peak storm surge, and high storm tide level at the Haimen Gauge Station increased along with the completion of reclamation projects, and the maximum increments caused by the third project were 0.13 m, 0.50 m, and 0.43 m, respectively. The envelopes with maximum storm tide levels of 7.0 m and 8.0 m inside the river mouth appeared to move seaward, with the latter shifting 1.8 km, 3.3 km, and 4.4 km due to the first project, second project, and third project, respectively. The results achieved in this study contribute to reducing the effects of, and preventing storm disasters after the land reclamation in the Jiaojiang Estuary.     

Inundation analysis of the effectiveness of an estuarygate in Hori River

Storm surges and floods around bays in Japan frequently result in water disasters. Both dikes and estuary gates can be constructed in urban areas near bays as counter measures. Estuary gates at the mouth of a river are intended to protect the upstream areas from storm surges and tsunamis. The sewer systems in urban areas also decrease the inundation. In this study, a numerical simulation is carried out to examine the effectiveness of the estuary gate and performance of the sewer system. A synthetic analysis model of inundation phenomena is developed and applied to the behavior of water in the urban area near the Nagoya Port and the estuary region of the Hori River. The developed model consists of models for the sea, river, sewer, overland flood flow, and typhoon. The inundation analysis model is validated by a comparison of analytical and observed results. The features of the inundations in the urban area caused by various conditions are discussed.     

Inundation analysis of the effectiveness of an estuarygate in Hori River

Storm surges and floods around bays in Japan frequently result in water disasters. Both dikes and estuary gates can be constructed in urban areas near bays as counter measures. Estuary gates at the mouth of a river are intended to protect the upstream areas from storm surges and tsunamis. The sewer systems in urban areas also decrease the inundation. In this study, a numerical simulation is carried out to examine the effectiveness of the estuary gate and performance of the sewer system. A synthetic analysis model of inundation phenomena is developed and applied to the behavior of water in the urban area near the Nagoya Port and the estuary region of the Hori River. The developed model consists of models for the sea, river, sewer, overland flood flow, and typhoon. The inundation analysis model is validated by a comparison of analytical and observed results. The features of the inundations in the urban area caused by various conditions are discussed.     

Numerical simulation of typhoon-induced storm surge along Jiangsu coast,Part Ⅱ:Calculation of storm surge

The Jiangsu coastal area is located in central-eastern China and is well known for complicated dynamics with large-scale radial sand ridge systems. It is therefore a challenge to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in this area. In this study, a two-dimensional astronomical tide and storm surge coupling model was established to simulate three typical types of typhoons in the area. The Holland parameter model was used to simulate the wind field and wind pressure of the typhoon and the Japanese 55-year reanalysis data were added as the background wind field. The offshore boundary information was provided by an improved Northwest Pacific Ocean Tide Model. Typhoon-induced storm surges along the Jiangsu coast were calculated based on analysis of wind data from 1949 to 2013 and the spatial distribution of the maximum storm surge levels with different types of typhoons, providing references for the design of sea dikes and planning for control of coastal disasters.     

香港沿岸台风暴潮灾害联合强度概率分析

以香港东部鲗鱼涌和大埔滘两个验潮站的风暴增水数据为基础,以1999-2018年影响香港的台风过程所引发的风暴最大增水为研究对象,利用广义极值分布分别对两站的最大台风增水进行一元拟合,并基于二元Copula函数,构造两站最大台风增水的联合概率分布,根据其联合重现频率进行潮灾的联合强度概率分析。研究结果表明:两站台风暴潮最大增水变量的联合重现频次能够反映台风在香港东部引发的风暴潮的强度,这种联合概率分析较一元分析有更强的地区适用性。