电子装备维修保障资源的仿真预测

通过对电子装备维修保障系统的分析，确定了电子装备维修保障资源仿真预测的一般过程，并通过理论计算与仿真结果的比较，证明了此仿真预测的可行性，为复杂装备系统维修资源的科学预测积累了经验，具有十分重要的意义。     

电子信息装备维修保障能力的BP神经网络评估

对电子信息装备维修保障能力进行客观、准确的评估是加强装备维修保障系统建设,提高保障能力的重要依据。创新地将BP神经网络应用到装备维修保障领域,首先建立了电子信息装备维修保障能力评估指标体系,确定了关键要素指标,然后详细设计了电子信息装备维修保障能力评估的BP神经网络模型,并对评估模型的算法流程和数据处理等内容进行研究。通过Matlab仿真软件对结果进行了计算分析表明,BP神经网络具有很强的解决非线性问题的能力,同时消除了因专家差异给评价结果带来的不确定性,适用于电子信息装备维修保障能力评估。     

反水雷装备维修保障仿真模型研究探讨

从反水雷装备维修保障的实际需求出发,在对反水雷装备维修保障系统运行过程分析的基础上,建立了反水雷装备维修保障仿真模型。     

射频识别技术在维修器材保障中的应用分析

简要介绍射频识别技术的基本原理,并对该技术在装备维修器材保障中的应用进行了分析研究。装备维修器材可分为在储器材、在处理器材和在运器材,RFID作为一种先进的非接触式自动识别技术,可提高装备维修器材保障的效率。最后针对目前该技术在国内外存在的标准化和成本问题,提出了相应的解决办法,并对我军发展RFID提出了建议。     

智能化条件下装备维修保障面临的挑战及对策

文章以智能化条件下装备维修保障为背景,阐述智能化条件下的装备维修保障内涵特征,剖析装备发展运用进入高度智能化阶段对装备维修保障的挑战和影响。从思想观念、维修方式、保障机制、维修手段等方面,对智能化条件下装备维修保障发展对策进行探讨,为推进智能化条件下装备维修保障的深度变革提供理论依据。     

温特法在装备备件消耗预测中的应用研究

只有准确地预测备件的消耗，才能合理地确定备件的需求量。装备维修保障过程中，备件的消耗往往呈现出季节性变化，用移动平均法预测备件消耗的效果不是很理想，因此有必要寻找一种更为有效的预测备件消耗的方法。本文探讨了温特指数平滑法的计算方法和计算步骤，并通过算例分析了温特指数平滑法在装备备件消耗量预测中的应用，并对预测结果进行了分析和比较。结果表明温特指数平滑法用于备件消耗预测是有效的、可行的，比移动平均法具有更好的预测精度。     

航空大数据技术的发展与应用

大数据技术在以互联网、电商、金融为代表的第三产业得到了极大的发展和扩充,然而在航空工业领域,大数据技术的价值一直没有得到充分利用与挖掘.事实上,大数据技术在飞行器设计、系统级故障预测以及航空装备维修与保障领域有重大应用价值,值得进行深入研究与探索.首先介绍了大数据的内涵,按大数据流转的生命周期分析了相关技术在航空领域的应用,重点阐述了航空大数据分析技术在系统级故障预测领域的应用,并结合美国大数据分析技术在航空领域的应用现状,指出了航空大数据技术的发展趋势.     

陆军装甲指挥信息系统装备PHM应用技术研究

在分析了装甲指挥信息系统故障装备3级故障特点的基础上,从装甲指挥信息系统装备维修保障的实际需要出发,设计了装甲指挥信息系统装备PHM系统的体系结构和功能构成,并对各功能分系统进行了论述,对装甲指挥信息系统装备PHM系统的建设进行了有效的理论探索.     

基于模糊综合评判方法的装备维修人员保障能力评估

针对当前装备维修人员保障能力评估的不足,采用多层次模糊综合评判原理,设计其评估模型.提出了指标体系及其权重分配方法,构造了评估的比较判别矩阵,给出了其保障能力的一级评价模型和二级评价模型.以一个具体实例说明了模型的应用方法,并对计算结果进行了分析.结果表明:这种评判方法科学地将定性与定量有机结合起来,计算结果客观全面,科学准确.     

一种基于加权隐马尔可夫的 自回归状态预测模型

针对电子系统状态趋势预测问题,提出了一种加权隐马尔可夫模型的自回归趋势预测方法.该方法以自回归模型作为隐马尔可夫的状态输出,利用加权预测思想对马尔可夫链中的隐状态进行混合高斯模型的加权序列预测,并利用最大概率隐状态下的自回归系数计算模型输出.通过对实际的复杂混沌序列和电子系统BIT状态数据进行趋势预测,并针对不同模型参数下的预测结果进行实验分析,结果表明该方法对系统状态变化的趋势具有较好的预测性能.     

基于决策支持系统的预测模型研究

本文以时间序列预测法中的趋势外推法为主要研究方法，研究了基于决策支持系统的预测模型，该方法对于决策支持系统的成本预测有着重要的参考价值。     

Estimated costs of system maintenance and repair

This paper presents a practical model to estimate the system cost of maintenance and repair. The model considers all time and cost factors. An application to the model is presented. The relationships between cost and each of scheduled time for maintenance and mean time between failures are given.     

Joint optimization of block-replacement and periodic-review spare-provisioning policy

This paper considers the problem of joint optimization of "preventive maintenance" and "spare-provisioning policy" for system components subject to wear-out failures. A stochastic mathematical model is developed to determine the jointly optimal "block replacement" and "periodic review spare-provisioning policy." The objective function of the model represents the s-expected total cost of system maintenance per unit time, while the preventive replacement interval and the maximal inventory level are chosen as the decision variables. The objective function of the model is in an analytic form with parameters easily obtainable from field data. The model has been tested using field data on electric locomotives in Slovenian Railways. The calculated optimal values of the model decision variables are realistic. "Sensitivity analysis of the model" shows that the model is relatively insensitive to moderate changes of the parameter values. The results of testing and of sensitivity analysis of the model prove that a trade-off exists between the replacement related cost and the inventory related cost. The jointly optimal preventive replacement interval defined by this model differs appreciably from the corresponding interval determined by the conventional model where only replacement related costs are considered. Also, the results of the sensitivity analysis show that even minor modification of the value of each model decision variable (without the appropriate adjustment of the value of the other decision variable) can lead to important increase of the s-expected total cost of system maintenance. This indicates that separate optimization of preventive maintenance policy and spare-provisioning policy does not ensure minimal total cost of system maintenance. This model can be readily applied to optimize maintenance procedures for a variety of industrial systems, and to upgrade maintenance policy in situations where block replacement preventive maintenance is already in use.     

Reliability and Maintainability Considerations in Computer Performance Evaluation

This paper describes the application of R&M concepts to computer performance evaluation. The relevance of reliability to maintenance cost of computer system is established. Although a simple reliability model is used, one can use more complex models. The mathematical model for maintenance cost analysis must be tailored for individual cases, depending upon the maintenance philosophy of the organization. The computer performance analysis from maintenance view points should examine software reliability and recovery procedures, which are relatively difficult in distributed processing.     

Cost optimization of maintenance scheduling for a system withassured reliability

Systems which have to work at or below a maximum acceptable failure rate should be maintained at predetermined points such that the failure rate does not exceed the acceptable level. As the system ages, the post-maintenance failure rate of the system drops to some newer one, unless the system has been replaced, but does not restore the system to the original state. A branching algorithm with effective dominance rules that curtail the number of nodes created is presented; this algorithm determines the number of maintenance interventions before each replacement in order to minimize the total cost over a finite time horizon. The model considers inflationary trends. A numerical example and computational experience are presented. The authors treat the maintenance cost as constant and successive simple-maintenance intervals as decreasing. Though the cost/maintenance is assumed constant, any increasing maintenance cost function could be incorporated. The optimum solutions depend on the constant improvement factor, first simple-maintenance point, rate of increase in acquisition cost, maintenance cost factor, and planning period     

大型相控阵雷达天线阵面视情维修优化模型

针对大型相控阵雷达天线阵面维修保障特点,提出了一种视情维修策略。当天线阵面中故障部件总数达到一定数量后,装备停机并开始换件维修。以天线阵面使用可用度为约束条件,以期望维修费用率最低为优化目标,建立了大型相控阵雷达天线阵面视情维修优化模型,并提出了一种求解最佳视情维修阈值和最佳换件维修人数的数值迭代算法。最后,通过具体实例验证了模型与算法的可行性。该模型可为大型相控阵雷达预防性维修决策提供理论依据。     

基于Gamma过程的单部件系统预防维修与更换策略

针对一类伽马（Gamma）劣化失效的单部件系统,提出了一种预防维修和预防更换策略。用伽马分布描述了系统的劣化过程,部件为不完全维修,系统维修效果假定服从正态分布。所建立的模型以部件生命周期单位时间内期望费用作为优化目标,通过求解模型可以确定预防性维修的次数、预防维修和预防更换的阈值。最后通过对一个伽马退化部件进行案例分析,验证了模型的可操作性。     

监测接收机PHM技术方法探讨

监测接收机是卫星导航系统的核心设备之一,保障和维护其精稳运行是系统提供高精度服务的关键。本文提出了监测接收机 PHM 健康评估与预测的定义,给出了监测接收机健康参数概念,分析了健康参数偏离次数、偏离概率影响监测接收机健康状态的评估方法,概述了参数获取、数据处理、状态评价、分析诊断以及趋势预测等主要流程,对进一步探讨卫星导航系统故障预测与评估技术,提升运行维护能力有很好的借鉴作用。     

Replicated Object Management with Periodic Maintenance in Mobile Wireless Systems

In this paper we analyze periodic maintenance strategies for managing replicated objectsin mobile wireless environments. Under periodical maintenancestrategies, the system periodically checks local cells to determineif a replicated object should be allocated or deallocated in a cell to reduce the access cost.We develop a performance model based on Petri netsthat considers the missing-read cost, write-propagationcost and the periodic maintenance cost with the objective to identify optimal periodic maintenance intervals to minimize theoverall cost. The analysis results show that the overall cost is highwhen the user arrival-departure ratio andthe read-write ratio work against each other and is low otherwise. In all cases, there exists an optimal periodic maintenance interval that would yield the minimum cost.Further, the optimal periodic maintenance interval increases as the arrival-departure ratio andthe read-write ratio work in harmony.     

10kV配电变压器状态评估模型研究

本文针对10kV配电变压器状态评估模型进行了介绍,叙述了变压器状态评级、评估指标体系的建立、评估模型的建立和实例计算等思路和方法。鉴于检修体制是否合理完善直接影响配电变压器可靠性水平,通过基于风险度计算的状态评估模型,对配电变压器进行状态评价,对变压器的合理使用和维修、故障预测以及配电管理等有着极为重要的意义。