The demand for public transport. part II. supply and demand factors of public transport

Abstract

This two‐part article, concerned with the way public transport ridership is affected by the various relevant factors, is based on the Executive Summary of The Demand for Public Transport (Webster and Bly 1980), the report of the TRRL‐sponsored International Collaborative Study on Factors Affecting Public Transport Patronage. Part I of the article, which was concerned with the social and economic conditions in which public transport operates, showed the importance of the background factors such as income, car ownership and land use on public transport usage: it also indicated how the longer‐term impacts of the more direct demand factors (fares, service levels) often show themselves in changes in car ownership levels, activity patterns (i.e. where people live, work, shop, socialize, etc) and land‐use development.

Part II reviews the current state of knowledge on the effects of changes in fare levels and quality of service and of the introduction of various traffic and transport measures (traffic restraint, bus priority, etc): it outlines current methodology on costing public transport services and draws the supply and demand sides together in a consideration of particular strategies which are at the disposal of the operator, the planner and the policy maker.     

Regulatory reform and freight mode choice

Reform of trucking Vehicle Weights and Dimensions (VWD) regulations in Canada is now underway. The effect these reforms will have on the freight transportation industry are only recently the subject of research. This paper is part of this new research effort, aimed at understanding how regulatory reform in the trucking sector will affect the existing competitive relationship between trucks and the railways. The paper presents the results of study and research into modelling the relationship between mode choice and the service characteristics that are affected by VWD reform.Using several periods of data, a series of econometric models are developed which help to elucidate the relative relationships between the mode service characteristics for both of the principal interprovincial freight modes. A technique is developed and presented to model railway user costs in order to overcome the complex and often unrepresentable pricing activities of Canadian railways.The strength of the developed econometric models is presented, including their significance and statistical reliability. This is further reinforced by the similarities exhibited by all the models in the series. The selected model is applied to predict market service responses required of the railway industry in order to compete with the trucking sector now adapting to the new regulations.The impact of the newly implemented vehicle weight and dimension reform on the rail transportation industry is analyzed and railway industry improvements aimed at maintaining its market share are presented. The results predicted by the model show that railway user cost reductions should be moderate, and likely less than the level of inflation over the period of time when trucking converts its fleet to take advantage of the new regulations.Abbreviations AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials - CCMTA Canadian Conference of Motor Transport Administrators - EPI End products, inedible commodity classification - GVW Gross Vehicle Weight - NA 1988 VWD National Agreement - RTAC Roads and Transportation Association of Canada - VWD Vehicle Weight(s) and Dimension(s) - WA 1988 VWD Western Agreement     

Planning the driverless city

ABSTRACT

AV technologies have the potential to transform urban landscapes and existing transport systems and networks. Yet, the utopian imaginary of reduced automobile ownership and a new shared economic future sits in tension with suggestions that car dependency, urban sprawl and transport inaccessibility will be exacerbated. The issues are situated in a complex governance landscape involving an influential private sector who are increasingly setting the agenda. The public sector may be forced into reacting to the new innovations by information technology and automobile companies as they are introduced into existing built environments. Drawing on an extensive literature base and interviews with public sector planners, this paper reveals the conceptual gaps in the framing of AV technology – the prospects and limits – and how these are conceived. The paper raises questions about the role urban planning can play in the rollout of AVs in order to anticipate and mediate unwanted built environment and socio-spatial impacts, as well as reconciling the ambition of transport innovation with the public purpose of planning.     

Book review

Abstract

In April 1983, the “Fourth World Conference on Transport Research” was held in Hamburg. For a period of four days, experts from all parts of the world discussed transport research and planning problems. The discussions were divided into eight so‐called ‘sub‐topics’. Fortunately, one of the sub‐topics, ‘Man and his Transport Behaviour’ (chaired by Moshe Ben‐Akiva, U.S.A. and Werner Brog, Federal Republic of Germany) dealt with the individual and his behaviour. This complemented the traditionally supply‐oriented thinking of the transport planners by introducing the demand component which had frequently been neglected in the past. Since the view has become increasingly widespread that transport is meant to serve people and thus that research should emphasize the (potential) users of the transport system, the number of papers submitted and presented on this sub‐topic was especially large.

However, the number of papers which could be included in the ‘Conference Proceedings’ was limited and this would have meant that a number of interesting documents could not be published. Therefore, papers on four special areas within this sub‐topic are to be published in four consecutive issues of Transport Reviews. The areas which will be dealt with are ‘Telecommunications’, ‘Non‐Motorised Transport’, ‘Special Problems in Third World Countries’ and ‘Fare Structures in Public Transport’. The papers were selected strictly according to their contents. A brief commentary in each issue explains in turn the reasons for choosing each of the four subject areas.     

Man and his transport behaviour Part 4. Fare strategies for public transport—a problem outline

Abstract

In April 1983, the “Fourth World Conference on Transport Research” was held in Hamburg. For a period of four days, experts from all parts of the world discussed transport research and planning problems. The discussions were divided into eight so‐called ‘sub‐topics’. Fortunately, one of the sub‐topics, ‘Man and his Transport Behaviour’ (chaired by Moshe Ben‐Akiva, U.S.A. and Werner Brög, Federal Republic of Germany) dealt with the individual and his behaviour. This complemented the traditionally supply‐oriented thinking of the transport planners by introducing the demand component which had frequently been neglected in the past. Since the view has become increasingly widespread that transport is meant to serve people, and thus, that research should emphasize the (potential) users of the transport system, the number of papers submitted and presented on this sub‐topic was especially large.

However, the number of papers which could be included in the ‘Conference Proceedings’ was limited and this would have meant that a number of interesting documents could not be published. Therefore, papers on four special areas within this sub‐topic are to be published in four consecutive issues of Transport Reviews. The areas which will be dealt with are ‘Telecommunications’, ‘Non‐Motorised Transport’, ‘Special Problems in Third World Countries’ and ‘Fare Structures in Public Transport’. The papers were selected strictly according to their contents. A brief commentary in each issue explains in turn the reasons for choosing each of the four subject areas.

Parts 1–3 appeared in Transport Reviews, 4, 99–113, 173–212, 273–298.     

Decision Support Systems for Public Transport Management: The Athens Public Transport Authority Project

This article reports on an implementation study of a computerised decision support system for public transport management for the Athens Public Transport Authority (APTA). The study analysed the current situation, specified user requirements, determined system functionality, designed the system architecture, organised the project and, finally, planned dissemination activities. The decision support system covers the main public transport management activities of APTA - transport service provision, economic and financial planning, passenger complaints and suggestions, and personnel management - offering its users the possibility to study the potential effects of their decisions before implementation. To achieve this, the system will consist of a data warehousing system, for the integrated management of a wide variety of data sources, and of online analytical processing tools, for information analysis and scenario testing. The system architecture has been designed to offer robustness, flexibility, rich functionality and open connectivity. The system aims to help APTA reduce operational costs and provide a better transport service, attracting more passengers to public transport and reducing, in the process, congestion and pollution.     

Public transport enterprises in transition

Since the mid-1970s many western governments have felt that liberalization of market forces through deregulation and better control or privatization of public enterprises would raise productivity and reduce inflation and government deficits. This paper reviews the recent literature on public enterprise and draws on the Canadian experience. It discusses the rationale for and concept of public enterprise and focuses on two reform proposals, accountability and privatization. To increase the degree of accountability would require, on the one hand, that the government establish a formal mandate and role for the enterprise and periodically provide formal government directives, and on the other hand, provide an appropriate evaluation framework. Government compensation for imposed public duties is addressed. Full or partial privatization should be pursued when the rationale for a public enterprise has been significantly altered. This applies particularly to public transport enterprises which are in competition with the private sector.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Fourth World Conference on Transport Research, Vancouver, Canada, 1986. The author wishes to acknowledge the financial support of the Research Branch of the Canadian Transport Commission, and the valuable input provided by Dr Gennady Orzornoy.     

Restructuring the Greek Railways: Current Progress and Evaluation of Alternative Schemes

Abstract

This paper presents the rationale, the method, and the alternative choices in the process of restructuring the Hellenic Railways Organisation (OSE). The most likely alternative structures regarding ownership and management issues of the new entities that will inherit the old OSE organization, and discusses the strategic implications of these alternatives are discussed. A critical view of the process of Greek railway reform and the evaluation results of the alternative organizational structures for the new situation are presented. It first presents the current experience in European Union and other countries of Europe, and the relative position of the Greek railways vis‐à‐vis the most common practices. The most likely options for the new organizational structure are presented which will result from the application of the European Union Directives and the Greek Law 2671/98 for the reorganization of the Greek railways. Based on a more detailed presentation of expected income and expenditures (i.e. economic viability) of the alternatives, a structure and a roadmap to these reforms is recommended for a successful and, above all ‘implementable’, reform of the Greek railways under the current conditions. Finally, the process for change and restructuring is described in terms of the basic principles and procedures that should be followed, and in terms of the necessary steps and procedures for the transition from the current to the new situation.     

The formulation of marketing strategy in urban public transport

This paper prescribes the parameters of marketing strategy formulation in the context of urban public transport and emphasises in particular the usefulness of the marketing mix and segmentation concepts. A marketing mix comprising the two primary dimensions of service attributes and promotion is advocated, the service attributes to include price, in-vehicle time, mesh density, frequency, reliability and comfort. Three primary trip purpose segments are identified viz. journey-to-work, shopping, and leisure/social trip segments, but these may be expanded into a twenty-four cell matrix once origin-destination and car access factors are included. The sensitivity of demand in these segments is examined mostly by reference to demonstration and experimental project data drawn from the United States and the United Kingdom. For the three primary trip purpose segments demand elasticity is shown to be greater for non-price than for price features; for both price and non-price service features elasticity is shown to be a function of journey purpose being least elastic for journey-to-work trips and most elastic for social/leisure trips. The role of promotion is examined and its importance to the successful marketing of public transport clearly demonstrated.This paper is a condensation of material appearing in The Management of Urban Public Transport: a marketing approach, by P. J. Hovell, W. H. Jones, and A. J. Moran, to be published by Saxon House and Lexington Books in 1975.     

Limitations of transport policy

There is an implication in the notion of 'transport policy' that substantial improvements could be made to the transport system given sufficient ingenuity, investment and good will. This paper argues that such policy aspirations cannot cope with the desire for ever-increasing mobility, a deep and powerful force in modern society. In densely populated countries there is no possibility of meeting the demand for unconstrained movement through construction of additional transport infrastructure, since new and longer journeys would quickly fill the extra capacity until the congestion equilibrium is re-established. What limits mobility in practice is the time individuals have available for travel, time which is equitably distributed. Transport plans need to acknowledge this time constraint as fundamental, and accordingly be realistically modest about what is achievable. It is an illusion that the transport system could be substantially more efficient whilst remaining equitable.     

Organization and planning of ambulance transport services in England and Wales

The ambulance service is the largest special needs transport operator in England and Wales and an important pillar of support to the National Health Service. In the last decade its size and role as a transport agency have been the subject of at least two government‐inspired reviews which have questioned the efficiency of the ambulance service and examined in some detail its operational performance. The ambulance service also faces constraints on its funding, like the rest of the health service, which raises questions as to its ability in the future to meet all patient demands for transport, especially in the area of non‐emergency outpatient services. The organization of the ambulance service is described from a number of perspectives: historical, institutional and managerial. These suggest that changes occurring in the approach to health care and management which are based on assumptions of cost‐effectiveness and competition, will likewise affect the organization and provision of patient transport services. The ambulance service may become an even more specialist operator competing or co‐operating in certain areas of work with other transport agencies especially in the area of non‐emergency outpatient services. Scenarios are outlined on how this may be achieved and the likely implications for the delivery of health care.     

Time taken for residents to adopt a new public transport service: examining heterogeneity through duration modelling

When a new public transport service is introduced it would be valuable for public authorities, financing organisations and transport operators to know how long it will take for people to start to use the service and what factors influence this. This paper presents results from research analysing the time taken for residents living close to a new guided bus service to start to use (or adopt) the service. Data was obtained from a sample of residents on whether they used the new service and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modelling has been used to analyse how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine what factors influence this. It is found that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. Allowance for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service was tested using a split population model (SPD) model. The SPD model indicates that 36% of residents will never use the new service and is informative in differentiating factors that influence whether Route 20 is used and when it is used.

Organizational and Ownership Transformation in Poland’s Urban Transport Companies

Abstract

This paper seeks to reconstruct the organizational and ownership transformation involving Poland’s urban transport that companies passed through after 1990. Data collected from various sources (above all the Internet, including the Bulletins of Public Information) were used to establish the degree of advancement of the transformation processes. Despite the passage of nearly two decades since the new economic reforms were launched, the privatization processes involving enterprises of municipal origin are not well‐advanced. There is not a single private company among the organizers of urban transport. Instead, an absolute domination of budgetary‐sphere entities may be noted. Furthermore, there are seven transport municipal unions. Among the operators (carriers) public ownership remains dominant in the form of single‐person local authority companies, local government companies, municipal union ownerships, municipal companies as well as budgetary units. Privatization processes have encompassed fewer than 10% of all operators in the form of companies with foreign participation, workers’ companies and companies with Polish non‐public sector participation. Moreover, in 20 localities urban transport is supplied by multi‐trade municipal services enterprises (as of end‐2008). Thus, transformation processes, though started earlier than in the case of Poland’s State Road Transport coach companies, are much less advanced.     

Technological innovations in the transport sector: the need for cooperation to meet environmental interests

Environmental problems have become urgent in many countries. A large contribution to the solution of environmental problems is expected from technological change. This raises the issue of how technological change takes place, and more in particular how technological change can be promoted that is beneficial to long term sustainability objectives.

In the paper we discuss this topic in the context of the transport sector. This is relevant because transportation contributes significantly to various types of pollution, existing trends might lead to even more negative impacts and finally there are high expectations about the potential of future technological development to reduce the environmental impact of transportation.

We approach the issue of technological change towards more environmentally sound development from the perspective of technology dynamics and sustainable development. We argue that additional theoretical insights are needed especially when one wants to study technological change in the context of environmental problems. We therefore discuss a strategy of cooperation between government and firms in network. Special attention is paid to the role of the government in networks and the use of a new type of instruments.     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

An assessment of the demand for new transport technology in Australia

This paper summarizes the constraints which a technological innovation in transport must satisfy if it is to achieve widespread application. The existing and likely future travel demands in Australia are reviewed, and for certain types of travel it is concluded that existing modes may become unsuitable or unacceptable. In these areas, it is possible that a new transport technology may find application. In all other areas, it is considered that existing modes, or their functional successors, will continue.

Five possible demand areas in which new transport technology may find application are identified. These are as follows:

1) High speed distribution systems may be introduced in Australian CBD's (Central Business Districts) within the next ten years. These may be progressively extended to provide radial public transport services to the CBD. It is also possible that these systems may eventually be extended to provide a dual‐mode capability in inner‐suburban areas as a partial alternative to freeway construction.

2) New town developments which may be introduced in Australia could include various forms of advanced transportation systems.

3) New aviation modes, possibly including short take off and landing aircraft operating from suburban airports may be introduced to cater for inter‐urban travel.

4) A demand‐responsive transport system to cater for the needs of the transport poor in urban areas may find limited application.

5) In the longer term, possibly by the turn of the century, an improved transport system capable of providing door‐to‐door service over the whole of an urban area and operating under a dual‐mode configuration appears to be possible. It probably would emerge from development of an incremental nature and eventually include the installation of a new technology in the then existing freeway and railway reservations in the city.     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Mapping and evaluating the complexity of information flows in freight transport chains

ABSTRACT

The role of information in the efficient management of freight transport systems is well acknowledged. Administrative functions, such as negotiation or payments, involve intensive communication, while the production of the transport service relies heavily on the sharing of information (e.g. track and trace). Yet, specific literature on information flows is relatively scarce. This paper sets out to contribute to filling in this gap. Firstly, it elaborates a set of maps of the information flows for four conceptualisations – direct link, corridor, hub and spoke, and connected hubs – of maritime freight transport, initially proposed by Woxenius (2007, “Generic Framework for Transport Network Designs: Applications and Treatment in Intermodal Freight Transport Literature.” Transport Reviews 27 (6): 733–749. doi:10.1080/01441640701358796). The results reveal a high degree of similarity between import and export services. Secondly, it assesses the complexity of each conceptualisation’s flow network using the concept of entropy. Flows are characterised along four variables: involved agents, timing, and contents and message type. Additionally, a new taxonomy is proposed to categorise the messages. The results evidence the heterogeneous contributions of each category to the complexity of the flows. Finally, the results also reveal that the information flows for the tasks in the pre-transport stage are not specific to the conceptualisation in question and are of comparable complexity to the flows occurring during the transport stage.     

Optimal transport strategies for European cities

A new procedure for generating optimal transport strategies has been applied in nine European cities. A public sector objective function which reflects concerns over efficiency, environmental impact, finance and sustainability is specified and a set of policy measures with acceptable ranges on each, identified. Optimal strategies based on combinations of these policy measures which generate the optimal value of the objective function, are identified, and compared between cities. Resulting policy recommendations are presented. The results demonstrate the importance of an integrated approach to transport strategy formulation. They emphasise the role of changes in public transport service levels and of fares, and of charges for car use. By contrast, new infrastructure projects are less frequently justified. In the majority of cities the revenues from car use charges are sufficient to finance other elements in the strategy. However, private sector involvement either in initial financing or in operation may be desirable. Revised objective functions to reflect private sector involvement are specified, and optimal strategies with private sector operation of public transport are also identified. The requirement to meet private sector rates of return for public transport operation typically results in lower frequencies and higher fares; charges for car use then need to be raised to satisfy public policy objectives, but system performance is reduced. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.