化工生产事故预防信息系统研究

为指导操作人员正确地处理化工生产过程中的问题,防范人为误操作导致的事故发生,开发了以化工生产的危险与可操作性分析结果和典型事故原因分析结果为知识库的事故预防信息系统.系统实时在线监测化工生产过程中的关键变量,通过判定变量间的影响关系,实现对化工生产过程潜在危险的辨识、预警并给予实时操作指导,以确保生产安全,提高装置的生产效率.最后,以丙烯聚合工艺为例,在多功能过程试验控制平台上进行了验证,探讨了事故预防信息系统的应用方法.     

煤矿危险源风险预警与控制的研究

根据现代安全管理的理论与方法，结合煤矿人-机-环境特点和不同煤矿事故的发生机理，对煤矿危险源风险预警和控制的基本理论和方法进行了探讨，提出了基于危险源的煤矿风险预警与控制的一般流程，给出煤矿危险源辨识、风险评价、监控和预警的方法，为煤矿安全管理信息系统提供理论基础。     

A method for assisting the accident consequence prediction and cause investigation in petrochemical industries based on natural language processing technology

Risk analysis for production processes in the petrochemical industry is an important procedure for consequence prediction and investigation of accidents. The analyzer must grasp the correlations between the possible causes and consequences. From the potential cause and effect found in risk analysis reports, complete clarification should be obtained. Therefore, this study presents a method for assisting accident consequence prediction and investigation in the petrochemical industry based on risk analysis reports using natural language processing technology. First, a hazard and operability (HAZOP) historical data table is established by filling over 7200 HAZOP analysis data points. Both the causes and consequences in the table are classified into 20 categories each using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) models. The LDA clustering results are assigned classification for the cause and consequence topics to the cause and consequences of the HAZOP analysis data. Based on part-of-speech (POS) tagging, all the words in each cause and consequence record are divided into subject and action words. Next, the word combinations of subject and action words with a higher occurrence are considered the key phrases for describing and representing the corresponding cause and consequence topic classifications. The Apriori algorithm is used to determine the frequent item sets, acquire the association rules, and calculate the association degree to obtain the sort order; it can highlight general trends in relational cause and consequence topics. According to the results, the most likely cause of the consequence and the most likely consequence that the cause may lead to are identified. Finally, a visual interface is developed to present the data for the consequence prediction and cause investigation of accidents. The results reveal that the quantity and quality of historic data are important factors that may influence the results. This method can contribute to predicting the accident evolution trend of an abnormal situation, taking preventive measures in advance, improving the accuracy of early warning, and supporting emergency response measures.     

基于环境参数监测评估的丙烯腈装置安全预警技术研究

以丙烯腈生产装置为研究对象,调查分析其存在的主要危险因素以及工艺特性,依据偏差分析原理建立了丙烯腈装置的异常处置原则与标准,设计了具有环境质量浓度监测评估和过程参数偏差预警分析的双重监控预警平台。该平台通过建立的OPC通讯技术,实时获得现场环境质量浓度及关键参数的信息,进行泄漏扩散事故的早期预警和早期干预处置,并通过对监测数据的综合动态分析预测危险气体环境质量浓度的变化趋势以及可能对周边带来的危害。     

地铁施工灾害关键警兆监测指标研究

为实现地铁施工灾害警兆的实时监测和重点跟踪,预防和减少地铁施工灾害的发生,应用WBS-RBS及关联规则对地铁施工灾害关键警兆监测指标进行科学选取。通过分析以往地铁施工事故,针对基坑工程采用WBS-RBS方法,全面识别施工过程中的风险源,并运用基坑工程警兆监测指标关联规则模型对"地墙渗漏"警兆的20组样本数据进行计算分析,得到警兆与监测指标的频繁项集,从而甄选出关键警兆监测指标。结果表明,由于关联规则的存在,当警兆监测指标组合中某个指标超过阈值时,组合中可能存在其他指标同时超过其指标阈值,因此这时应加强对其他指标的监测。     

港口石油化工码头重大危险源监控与预警技术探讨

对石油化工码头重大危险源实施安全监控与预警的必要性，拟解决的技术关键问题以及国内外石油化工码头安全监控与预警技术现状进行了简要的介绍和探讨。     

基于粗神经网络的管制员工作差错风险预警模型

针对空中交通管制员工作差错风险类型,指出指标体系建构过程的动态性特征,从个人、团队、设备、环境及管理几个方面,建构预警指标体系,运用粗糙集在数据挖掘方面的优势,通过基于属性重要度的启发式约简算法,提取关键指标,剔除冗余指标,可以实现在不丢失关键预警监控对象的情况下,结合BP人工神经网络构建实时预警模型,既有利于加快运算速度,又有利于进行重点监控.经过实例仿真,粗糙集与BP网络结合建构的预警模型,能有效针对管制员工作差错风险进行实时预警监控.     

基于传递熵与KELM的炼油化工过程风险传播路径分析方法

基于炼油化工过程复杂，设备众多，某一设备的监测变量发生扰动可能会传播至其相邻设备引发出一系列故障链。现有方法多是针对某一设备进行监测与诊断，以期降低事故后果，而忽视了对过程风险传播路径的预测以防止事故的发生。因此，提出一种基于传递熵与核极限学习机的炼油化工过程风险传播路径分析方法，该方法针对某一工艺扰动，分析其在风险发展过程中的扰动传播过程，基于传递熵分析法建立炼油化工过程风险传播推绎模型；并提出一种基于KELM的风险传播搜索方法，预测风险传播路径；将该方法应用于分馏塔冲塔过程。研究结果表明:该方法可辨识出未来一段时间内风险的可能传播路径，以便操作人员及时采取预防措施，保证过程安全及产品质量。     

跨界水污染事故危害实时判定方法的建立

针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点,基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)构建了跨界水污染事故预警指标体系,并确立了各指标的分级标准。采用AHP(层次分析法)-综合模糊评价法建立了事故危害实时判定方法。     

大型活动客流监测预警方法研究

随着我国经济文化的发展,大型活动日益增多,大型活动中人群拥挤事故作为大型活动事故预防控制的重点,逐渐引起人们的重视.本文从观众结构、时间分布、空间分布及运动性特征四方面分析了大型活动客流的相关特性;论述了大型活动安全监测的内容与方法,确定了安全监测的重点部位;从安全容量、安全密度、安全速度、密度变化率和速度变化率五个角度提出了大型活动客流风险的预警方法,并比较了各类方法的优缺点.研究成果为保障我国大型活动的顺利召开,避免拥挤踩踏事故的发生有一定的借鉴意义.     

基于GIS的重大危险源安全监测预警系统研究与开发

提出了重大危险源安全监测预警系统的总体架构和设计建设原则,论述了重大危险源安全监测预警系统的两个主要功能:视频监控和综合参数监控;系统不仅可以实现传统的视频监控和记录功能,还可以对企业安全生产参数(如温度、压力等)实时采集与处理,对企业内部及周边的动态安全状况实时分析的基础上根据警情设定自动做出相应的监控预警及应急响应,如声光报警等;介绍了重大危险源安全监测预警系统在广州南沙(小虎)化工区等场所的示范应用情况。     

Association analysis of accident factors in petrochemical storage tank farms

In order to identify and clarify the association between the factors leading to accidents in a petrochemical tank area, this study analyzes investigation reports of 212 petrochemical tank farm accidents and combines this with the “association rule” mining and science related to complex networks. The main risk factors are determined and a risk factor data set is constructed; 75 association rules are extracted from the factor data set based on the Apriori algorithm. Then the obtained association rules are used to construct an accident factors network of the petrochemical storage tank area, and the topology characteristics of the network are further analyzed to reveal the importance of factors. Factors with large node degree, betweenness, and clustering coefficients are obtained, such as “violation of operating regulations”, “high concentration of flammable gas in the air”, “lack of experience and professional skills”, etc. These factors play an important role in the formation and development of accidents. The results also show that the accident cause network of the petrochemical storage tank area has a small average shortest path length and a large cluster coefficient, indicating a relatively close connection between the accident factors. The contributions of this study is not only extracting the hidden relationships among contributory factors to tank farm accidents using association analysis, but also revealing which factors are more important for the tank farm safety through the complex network.     

The role of situation awareness in accidents of large-scale technological systems

In the last two decades, several serious accidents at large-scale technological systems that have had grave consequences, such as that at Bhopal, have primarily been attributed to human error. However, further investigations have revealed that humans are not the primary cause of these accidents, but have inherited the problems and difficulties of working with complex systems created by engineers. The operators have to comprehend malfunctions in real time, respond quickly, and make rapid decisions to return operational units to normal conditions, but under these circumstances, the mental workload of operators rises sharply, and a mental workload that is too high increases the rate of error. Therefore, cognivitive human features such as situation awareness (SA)—one of the most important prerequisite for decision-making—should be considered and analyzed appropriately. This paper applys the SA Error Taxonomy methodology to analyze the role of SA in three different accidents: (1) A runaway chemical reaction at Institute, West Virginia killing two employees, injuring eight people, and requiring the evacuation of more than 40,000 residents adjacent to the facility, (2) The ignition of a vapor cloud at Bellwood, Illinois that killed one person, injured two employees, and caused significant business interruption, and (3) An explosion at Ontario, California injuring four workers and caused extensive damage to the facility. In addition, the paper presents certain requirements for cognitive operator support system development and operator training under abnormal situations to promote operators’ SA in the process industry.     

Process safety data management program based on HAZOP analysis and its application to an ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol plant

HAZOP analysis is a process hazard analysis method that has been widely applied both within and outside the chemical processing industries. This paper presents a design method for a process safety data management program for petrochemical plants based on HAZOP analysis and demonstrates the steps of application involved in building a process safety data management system for an ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol production plant. Firstly, the production data files and relevant documents of the plants should be classified and stored in the program database as reference documents and treatment schemes for coping with abnormal situations should be collected and summarized as guidance documents. Secondly, the HAZOP analysis method is employed to identify all the dangerous deviations possibly existing in the production process of the ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol plant. Then, the relationships among the deviations, the reference documents and the guidance documents should be considered and evaluated. Finally, each dangerous deviation will be given a corresponding reference document and guidance document. The reference documents and guidance documents stored in the expert system can be utilized to help operators solve the corresponding technical problems and cope with abnormal situations. The process safety data management program will contribute to the identification, analysis and resolution of operation problems. When an abnormal situation occurs, according to the deviations exhibited in the system, the necessary reference documents and guidance documents will be quickly consulted by the operators, and an appropriate decision will be made to address the abnormal situation. Therefore, by using the process safety data management program, plant security and human safety in the petrochemical industries will be improved.     

Fault propagation behavior study and root cause reasoning with dynamic Bayesian network based framework

The Bhopal disaster was a gas leak incident in India, considered the world's worst industrial disaster happened around process facilities. Nowadays the process facilities in petrochemical industries have becoming increasingly large and automatic. There are many risk factors with complex relationships among them. Unfortunately, some operators have poor access to abnormal situation management experience due to the lack of knowledge. However these interdependencies are seldom accounted for in current risk and safety analyses, which also belonged to the main factor causing Bhopal tragedy. Fault propagation behavior of process system is studied in this paper, and a dynamic Bayesian network based framework for root cause reasoning is proposed to deal with abnormal situation. It will help operators to fully understand the relationships among all the risk factors, identify the causes that lead to the abnormal situations, and consider all available safety measures to cope with the situation. Examples from a case study for process facilities are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. It also provides a method to help us do things better in the future and to make sure that another such terrible accident never happens again.     

铁路运营监测预警系统的构建

在对铁路预警研究综述的基础上,进行了铁路运营监测预警系统研究。从指标内涵、地位、政策相关性、表现形式、数据可得性及指标间关系等方面,确定了铁路运营监测预警系统指标体系的设计原则。引入机车辆数指数、旅客列车坐席指数的概念,从运输量、货车和机车运用、生产能力改善、经济、服务水平5个方面,构建铁路运营监测预警指标体系。对警限和警度的确定原则、方法进行探讨,提出预警信号评价模型。结合具体案例,对铁路运营水平进行评价,将运营水平状况的判断与决策取向相融合。所研究的理论和方法为铁路运营管理提供了科学依据和有益的参考。     

基于模糊模式识别的瓦斯含量指标异常预警技术

提出利用模糊模式识别技术对瓦斯涌出异常进行动态预警的新思路;通过对已知巷道的瓦斯含量监测数据和素描图进行分析,提取引起瓦斯涌出异常的前兆特征作为模式识别的特征向量,来对实时监测的巷道的工况进行判断,确定其是否存在瓦斯涌出异常的可能性。该方法将传统煤矿安全监控系统事后报警转变成事前预警,提高了系统的可用性。     

基于IAHP和灾变链式方法的城市油气管道风险诱因与预警研究

城市油气管道穿越城区街道、建筑和居民区等特殊地段,保障其安全运行具有重要意义。为实现城市油气管道风险早期预警,基于城市与野外长输油气管道风险对比分析,识别城市油气管道风险预警指标;建立城市油气管道风险预警指标体系,采用区间层次分析法对预警指标重要度进行定量排序,确定关键预警监测点;并依据灾变链式理论,构建城市油气管道重大事故灾变链式模型,研究管道风险演化过程,发现灾变前兆进行断链减灾。研究结果表明:“腐蚀”及“第三方破坏”占据城市油气管道失效致因比重最大,风险因子“油气管道与市政管道距离”以及“城市工程施工作业”应作为城市油气管道重点监测点。同时,围绕城市油气管道风险预警需致力于孕源断链。     

民用机场运行安全风险混合预警方法应用研究

为解决民用机场运行安全风险预警过程中预警因素单一、预警信号迟钝等问题,文章在探讨民用机场运行安全风险分析、评价和预警之间内在联系的基础上,运用系统安全科学、层次分析法与模糊数学等方法,建立多维可扩充的民用机场运行安全风险预警指标体系,其中包含综合预警指标15项、单预警指标19项,用以发现显性问题和隐形问题,并通过预警准则的设定为企业提供及时预警信号输出。企业的实际应用证明该预警方法具有可行性。     

特种机电设备安全科技支撑体系建设探讨

针对机电类特种设备的特点和安全科技现状,提出了构建特种机电设备安全科技支撑体系的架构。根据机电类特种设备的安全形势,以全面提升特种机电设备检验检测技术机构的能力,保障特种机电设备安全为目的,探讨特种机电设备安全科技支撑体系,研究分析由检验检测技术平台、风险评估技术平台、安全监测预警平台、应急救援技术平台、科技应用服务平台5个支撑平台构成的支撑体系的建设主体和建议。