Simulating hydrological responses to climate change using dynamic and statistical downscaling methods: a case study in the Kaidu River Basin,Xinjiang, China

Climate change may affect water resources by altering various processes in natural ecosystems. Dynamic and statistical downscaling methods are commonly used to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources. Objectively, both methods have their own advantages and disadvantages. In the present study, we assessed the impacts of climate change on water resources during the future periods (2020-2029 and 2040-2049) in the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin, Xinjiang, China, and discussed the uncertainties in the research processes by integrating dynamic and statistical downscaling methods (regional climate models (RCMs) and general circulation modes (GCMs)) and utilizing these outputs. The reference period for this study is 1990-1999. The climate change trend is represented by three bias-corrected RCMs (i.e., Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA), Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), and Seoul National University Meso-scale Model version 5 (SUN-MM5)) and an ensemble of GCMs on the basis of delta change method under two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We applied the hydrological SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model which uses the RCMs/GCMs outputs as input to analyze the impacts of climate change on the stream flow and peak flow of the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin. The simulation of climate factors under future scenarios indicates that both temperature and precipitation in the study area will increase in the future compared with the reference period, with the largest increase of annual mean temperature and largest percentage increase of mean annual precipitation being of 2.4°C and 38.4%, respectively. Based on the results from bias correction of climate model outputs, we conclude that the accuracy of RCM (regional climate model) simulation is much better for temperature than for precipitation. The percentage increase in precipitation simulated by the three RCMs is generally higher than that simulated by the ensemble of GCMs. As for the changes in seasonal precipitation, RCMs exhibit a large percentage increase in seasonal precipitation in the wet season, while the ensemble of GCMs shows a large percentage increase in the dry season. Most of the hydrological simulations indicate that the total stream flow will decrease in the future due to the increase of evaporation, and the maximum percentage decrease can reach up to 22.3%. The possibility of peak flow increasing in the future is expected to higher than 99%. These results indicate that less water is likely to be available in the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin in the future, and that the temporal distribution of flow may become more concentrated.     

黄土区小流域水沙对降雨及土地利用变化响应研究

降雨和土地利用/覆被变化是流域径流、泥沙的两个主要影响因子。本研究采用SWAT模型,用固定其中一个影响因子而改变另一个影响因子的方法,对研究区降雨变化与土地利用/覆被变化对径流泥沙影响进行估算,目的在于从年月不同时间尺度上确定黄土高原小流域水沙对降雨和土地利用变化的响应状况。结果表明,在年尺度上降雨变化对径流影响的贡献率为84.20%,土地利用变化对径流影响的贡献率为28.63%;在月尺度上,降雨对径流贡献率也大于土地利用对径流的贡献率,尤其在雨季降雨对径流的影响程度和土地利用对径流影响程度的比值最大可以达到4.5。因此,不论在年尺度还是月尺度上,降雨对径流的贡献率都远远大于土地利用对径流的贡献率。此外,研究结果也表明流域年降水量和流域森林植被盖度均与流域径流模数或输沙模数呈指数关系。     

石羊河流域生态风险敏感性因子的确定

本文从风险的角度对石羊河流域日益恶化的生态环境问题进行了探讨。首先 ,在系统定性分析的基础上 ,将石羊河流域生态风险分为水资源短缺风险及土壤和植被破坏风险 ,并建立了相应的风险指标体系。然后 ,对流域内 6个行政分区的风险因子值进行了获取工作。针对石羊河流域的实际资料 ,采用主成分分析法和改进的灰色关联度法对风险因子进行筛选 ,最终确定出敏感性风险因子 ,为进一步进行风险评价奠定了基础 ,同时也为制订风险的防范措施和对策提供了理论依据。     

Assessing land transformation and associated degradation of the west part of Ganga River Basin using forest cover land use mapping and residual trend analysis

The west part of Ganga River Basin (WGRB) has experienced continuous land transformation since the Indus Valley Civilisation shifted from the Indus basin to the Ganga basin. Particularly in the last few decades the land transformation has increased many-folds due to the changing climate and rapid increase in population. In this paper, we assessed land transformation and associated degradation in the WGRB based on the forest cover land use (FCLU) mapping and residual trend analysis (RTA). The FCLU maps for 1975 and 2010 were generated using 216 Landsat satellite images and validated using 1509 ground points. We mapped 29 forest and 18 non-forest types and estimated a total loss of 5571 km² forest cover and expansion in settlement areas (5396 km²). Other major changes mapped include a decrease in wetlands and water bodies, while an increase in agriculture and barren lands with an overall mapping accuracy of 85.3% (kappa, 0.82) and 88.43% (kappa, 0.84) for 1975 and 2010, respectively. We also performed the RTA analysis using GIMMS-NDVI3g to identify areas of significant negative vegetative photosynthetic change as an indicator for land degradation. All the RTA models showed monotonic nature of the residual trends and resulted as moderately positive but highly significant (P<0.001). Land degradation in the form of barren land accompanied by a decline in vegetation quality and coverage was found prominent in the basin with a possibility of an accelerated rate of land degradation in future due to the rapid loss of permanent forest cover.     

Assessing land transformation and associated degradation of the Indian Ganga River Basin using forest cover land use mapping and residual trend analysis

The Indian Ganga River Basin(IGRB) has experienced continuous land transformation since the Indus Valley Civilisation shifted from the Indus basin to the Ganga basin. Particularly in the last few decades the land transformation has increased many-folds due to the changing climate and rapid increase in population. In this paper, we assessed land transformation and associated degradation in the IGRB based on the forest cover land use(FCLU) mapping and residual trend analysis(RTA). The FCLU maps for 1975 and 2010 were generated using 216 Landsat satellite images and validated using 1509 ground points. We mapped 29 forest and 18 non-forest types and estimated a total loss of 5571 km~2 forest cover and expansion in settlement areas(5396 km~2). Other major changes mapped include a decrease in wetlands and water bodies, while an increase in agriculture and barren lands with an overall mapping accuracy of 85.3%(kappa, 0.82) and 88.43%(kappa, 0.84) for 1975 and 2010, respectively. We also performed the RTA analysis using GIMMS-NDVI3 g to identify areas of significant negative vegetative photosynthetic change as an indicator for land degradation. All the RTA models showed monotonic nature of the residual trends and resulted as moderately positive but highly significant(P<0.001). Land degradation in the form of barren land accompanied by a decline in vegetation quality and coverage was found prominent in the basin with a possibility of an accelerated rate of land degradation in future due to the rapid loss of permanent forest cover.     

土地利用变化对塔里木河中游胡杨林的影响研究

本研究区位于塔里木河中游地区,本研究选取耕地变化、输水堤防的建设以及油气田开发三种土地利用方式,在大量野外调查的基础上,在3S技术和历史数据的支持下,分析了这些土地利用方式变化对胡杨林生态系统的影响。研究结果表明:研究区1992年之后内耕地大量增加,输水堤防对堤防内外侧胡杨生态系统具有不同影响,油气田开发会造成生态破坏和环境污染等问题。     

基于DEM的延河流域水文特征提取与分析

基于DEM数据,依据地表径流漫流模拟算法,使用ArcGIS软件中的水文分析工具,提取与分析延河流域河网特征及相关信息,并与1∶25万地形图数字化水系进行分析比较。结果表明:集水面积阈值是决定河网提取精度的关键参数,阈值越大,提取河网越稀疏,反之则提取河网越密集;随着集水面积阈值的增大,河源数和河网密度、河流的级数、总河长等随之减少,但主河长变化不大;当阈值为5.51 km2时,提取河网与实际较吻合。因此,基于90m分辨率的DEM数据提取延河流域水系和子流域是切实可行的,可以作为数字流域建设与水资源管理的基础数据。     

塔里木河流域土地荒漠化的现状、成因及防治对策

本文分析了塔里木河流域土地荒漠化的现状和形成原因 ,阐述了自然因素及人为因素在土地荒漠化过程中的交互作用 ,人类不合理的经济活动是叠加在自然因素之上对土地荒漠化的发生和扩展起着“催化剂”的作用。提出了流域综合整治措施 ,加强塔河水资源利用管理、保护天然植被、营造防风林、发展节水农业、合理耕作、提高人民群众生态意识等防治土地荒漠化的有效措施     

渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲土地资源合理利用对策分析

本文对干旱区内陆河流域下游具有代表性的渭干河—库车河三角洲绿洲土地资源特征和存在的问题进行了详细的分析 ,分析表明 ,土地资源数量大、质量差、利用率低 ,土壤类型多 ;草场面积大、质量差 ;森林覆盖率低、疏林、灌木林比重大 ;土地利用中存在结构不合理 ,特别是林业、畜牧业比重偏低 ,绿肥和饲料作物面积过小 ;土壤次生盐渍化严重、土壤肥力下降 ,经营管理粗放、单产水平不高 ;草场面积锐减 ,森林资源破坏严重 ,保护绿洲的能力下降。在此基础上 ,提出了优化农业用地结构 ,提高土地利用综合效益 ;增加对农业用地开发利用的投入 ,促进农业用地由粗放型向集约型的转变 ;保护和更新胡杨林 ;保护和建设草场 ;大力治理盐碱 ;发展节水灌溉农业 ,提高水资源利用效益 ;扩大绿洲规模 ,加快城市化建设等持续合理利用土地资源的对策。     

The environmental and socio‐economic impacts of Eichhornia crassipes in the Victoria Falls/Mosi‐oa‐Tunya World Heritage Site,Livingstone, Zambia1

The exotic water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) has invaded the Maramba River, a tributary of the Zambezi River in the Victoria Falls World Heritage Site in Zambia presenting several negative environmental and economic impacts. The major impacts identified by recent studies are on the generation of hydro electric power, tourism development, native biodiversity, fish catches and human health. Other recorded impacts are reduced quality and quantity of water for domestic use, restricted navigation of waterways and the threat posed to vital infrastructure. This has led to the initiation of efforts to manage this infestation and address the resultant impacts. Methods proposed for control of water hyacinth in the Victoria Falls/Musi‐oa‐Tunya Pilot Site are an integration of mechanical and biological control measures. This paper discusses the impacts of water hyacinth invasion on the Maramba River and isolated clusters on the backwaters of the Zambezi. Two field surveys undertaken over the last three years and recent interviews with resource persons representing interested and affected institutions and local communities impacted by water hyacinth provide the basis for the data in this paper and the current intervention activities. The field surveys and questionnaires targeted government institutions involved in the management of the area and persons from the private sector engaged in tourism activities. Local peoples found in and around the project area were also interviewed. A pioneering effort is made to quantify the impacts and detail the costs arising from these impacts. Recommendations for the future control and management of E. crassipes are also made.     

土地利用变化时空特征与区域发展关系研究——以渭干河流域为例

基于三期遥感影像图,通过土地利用相对变化率、净变化速度和土地利用程度综合指数等,分析渭干河流域近20年土地利用变化与利用程度的时空差异,并探讨土地利用程度与社会经济发展水平的关系。研究结论如下:(1)渭干河流域土地利用类型以草地和未利用地为主,其类型分布和面积变化存在时空差异。1990—2008年流域林地、水域、建设用地面积逐渐增加,草地、沼泽、未利用地有所减少,耕地面积先增后减,总体有所增加。(2)因未利用地面积比重较大,流域各县的土地利用程度普遍不高,但近年有明显提高。库车、沙雅、新和三县土地利用程度综合指数逐渐增长,拜城县先增后减,总体有所增长。流域各县的土地利用效益均逐年增长,后期增长率远大于前期。(3)土地利用程度与区域社会经济发展水平存在正相关,土地利用程度综合指数越高,单位面积GDP和空间城市化水平越高。未利用地面积比重的空间差异对各县市城市化水平之间的差异具有较大影响。(4)人类活动加剧、社会经济发展等因子是流域土地利用变化主要驱动因素。     

塔里木河下游绿色走廊特点及衰败成因分析

近50年来塔木河上中游的水土开发活动，使得下游地区的来水骤减并中断有近30年的历史，从而引发了下游绿色走廓的逐步走向衰败、土地荒漠化趋势加剧等生态环境恶化问题。本文在前人研究成果基础上，综合分析了塔河下游绿色走廓发生、发展的特殊性和特点，认为绿色走廓衰败主要有5个主要因素：绿色走廓自然生命过程的衰退；新生幼林发生和发育原生机制的中断；土壤盐分的累积和增加；水分条件持续恶化；人类开垦荒地、滥伐、滥控等行为。通过成因分析认为，只有充分考虑到下游绿色走廓的特点及其衰败的原因，才能从根本上解决下游绿色走廓衰败的问题。     

塔里木河下游沙漠化对绿洲农业生产的影响

荒漠化是全世界所面临的重大的环境灾害之一。塔里木河下游的沙漠化已经对该区域的绿洲农业生产产生了巨大的危害。本文通过对塔里木河下游沙漠化状况和典型生产团场农业生产状况的调查研究发现 ,沙漠化对塔里木河下游农业生产的影响 ,主要表现为下游来水量逐年减少 ,弃耕地面积增加 ;沼泽土面积减少 ,肥沃土壤面积增加 ;风灾、旱灾面积增加 ,盐碱灾害面积相对减少。减轻沙漠化对绿洲农业危害的措施 ,包括加强管理 ,增加塔里木河的来水量 ;发展节水灌溉技术 ,减少水资源浪费 ;调整作物结构 ,提高水资源利用率 ;保护荒漠植被 ,维护生态 ,完善防护林体系。     

Impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources in the Ebinur Lake Basin,Northwest China

Changing climatic conditions and extensive human activities have influenced the global water cycle. In recent years, significant changes in climate and land use have degraded the watershed ecosystem of the Ebinur Lake Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China. In this paper, variations of runoff, temperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, lake area, socio-economic water usage, groundwater level and water quality in the Ebinur Lake Basin from 1961 to 2015 were systematically analyzed by the Mann-Kendall test methods(M-K) mutation test, the cumulative levelling method, the climate-sensitive method and land-use change index. In addition, we evaluated the effects of human activities on land use change and water quality. The results reveal that there was a significant increase in temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2015, despite a decrease in reference evapotranspiration. The Wenquan station was not significantly affected by human activities as it is situated at a higher altitude. Runoff at this station increased significantly with climate warming. In contrast, runoff at the Jinghe station was severely affected by numerous human activities. Runoff decreased without obvious fluctuations. The contributions of climate change to runoff variation at the Jinghe and Wenquan stations were 46.87% and 58.94%, respectively; and the contributions of human activities were 53.13% and 41.06%, respectively. Land-use patterns in the basin have changed significantly between 1990 and 2015: urban and rural constructed lands, saline-alkali land, bare land, cultivated land, and forest land have expanded, while areas under grassland, lake, ice/snow and river/channel have declined. Human activities have dramatically intensified land degradation and desertification. From 1961 to 2015, both the inflow into the Ebinur Lake and the area of the lake have declined year by year; groundwater levels have dropped significantly, and the water quality has deteriorated during the study period. In the oasis irrigation area below the runoff pass, human activities mainly influenced the utilization mode and quantity of water resources. Changes in the hydrology and quantity of water resources were driven primarily by the continuous expansion of cultivated land and oasis, as well as the growth of population and the construction of hydraulic engineering projects. After 2015, the effects of some ecological protection projects were observed. However, there was no obvious sign of ecological improvement in the basin, and some environmental problems continue to persist. On this basis, this study recommends that the expansion of oasis should be limited according to the carrying capacity of the local water bodies. Moreover, in order to ensure the ecological security of the basin, it is necessary to determine the optimal oasis area for sustainable development and improve the efficiency of water resources exploitation and utilization.     

晋西昕水河流域生态经济型防护林体系景观格局动态分析

本文以晋西昕水河流域为典型实例，概述了流域生态经济型防护林体系建设背景。依据流域内各类型区在不同时段的土地利用结构和生态经济特征，进行流域生态经济型防护林体系景观格局变化分析，表明了流域内景观多样性和异质性不断增加的发展趋势，以及确定各区主要发展方向，实行综合开发与治理的必要性，并提出了相应的流域生态经济型防护林体系动态调控途径。     

水蚀风蚀区六道沟流域不同土地利用方式下养分特征

利用经典统计与地统计学相结合的方法,以六道沟流域农用地、林地和草地三种土地类型为研究对象,测定各不同利用方式下土壤有机质、全氮、全磷、全钾、速效氮、速效磷、速效钾、C/N值八种养分指标。结果表明,土壤有机质、全氮含量表现为农用地>林地>草地,全磷含量表现为农用地>草地>林地,土壤全钾含量表现为草地>林地>农用地,速效氮含量表现为农用地>草地>林地,速效磷表现为农用地>林地>草地,速效钾表现为林地>农用地>草地;土壤C/N值表现为林地>草地>农用地;有机质含量与全氮含量呈线性关系,且均达极显著水平(P<0.01)。结果说明不同土地利用方式对土壤养分含量有重要影响。     

新疆渭干河—库车河三角洲绿洲土地利用时空变化特征分析

基于GIS平台,以新疆各县市统计资料及Landsat TM影像解译得到的3期土地利用数据为基础,结合统计分析工作,对渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲1996～2004年土地利用数量、类型及其变化进行了分析.分析得出,前后2个4年间,渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲耕地为先增加后减少,园地和林地则是先减少后增加.在8年尺度上土地利用总的动态特征是,耕地、园地、林地、水域及建设用地面积增加,草地和未利用土地面积减少.8年尺度渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲综合土地利用动态度为0.61.前4年综合土地利用动态度为0.55,耕地及建设用地的年变化率较大,园地和林地的年变化率较低.后4年渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲综合土地利用动态度为0.38,园地与耕地的年变化率较大,水域和未利用土地的变化率较低,前4年变化程度比后4年明显.最后引入单一土地利用类型相对变化率反映出渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲土地利用变化存在明显的区域差异.政策变动、经济发展、城市化水平、市场需求和人口增长是渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲土地利用变化的主要原因.     

Sensitivity of runoff to climatic variability in the northern and southern slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains,China

Temperature and precipitation play an important role in the distribution of intra-annual runoff by influencing the timing and contribution of different water sources.In the northern and southern slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains in China,the water sources of rivers are similar;however,the proportion and dominance of water sources contributing to runoff are different.Using the Manas River watershed in the northern slope and the Kaidu River watershed in the southern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountains as case studies,we investigated the changes in annual runoff under climate change.A modified hydrological model was used to simulate runoff in the Kaidu River and Manas River watersheds.The results indicated that runoff was sensitive to precipitation variation in the southern slope and to temperature variation in the northern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountains.Variations in temperature and precipitation substantially influence annual and seasonal runoff.An increase in temperature did not influence the volume of spring runoff;but it resulted in earlier spring peaks with higher levels of peak flow.Damages caused by spring peak flow from both slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains should be given more attention in future studies.     

旱作农田水肥耦合研究进展

在查阅1970～2004年国内外大量旱作农田水肥耦合研究资料的基础上,重点对其中30篇进行了分析总结。综合评述了旱作农田水肥效应关系、水肥对作物生长和产量的影响、不同水肥条件对作物水分利用效率(WUE)的影响、施肥对农田生态环境的影响以及水肥耦合模型和研究方法等研究进展情况。指出今后水肥耦合研究应该加强施肥对农产品品质和生态环境的影响的研究,同时依据不同试验目的选用田间试验或模拟试验,注重构建通用性的水肥耦合模型。     

喀什地区近10a绿洲耕地变化及其地下水位效应分析

根据喀什地区绿洲耕地面积和地下水位实测数据,分析近10a来耕地面积和地下水的变化特征及其之间的关性。分析表明：1）近10a绿洲耕地面积呈现波动增加的态势,年均增长率3.40%,人均耕地面积经历从减少到增加的变化过程,年均递增1.14%;耕地空间变化区域差异明显,巴楚县耕地变化率最大,年均达11.49%,岳普湖县最低,为...