Is spawning stock biomass a robust proxy for reproductive potential?

Reference points based on fishing mortality (F) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) are a requirement of many fisheries management frameworks. SSB is assumed to be a proxy for stock reproductive potential (SRP). Limit reference points based on SSB are used to indicate the level of biomass below which productivity is affected. SSB fails to account for changes in fecundity, egg viability and sex ratio, and it has been argued that total egg production (TEP) provides a better reflection of SRP. We explore how accounting for TEP impacts limit reference points and evidence for a relationship between stock and recruit. Time series of SSB and TEP are compared for three North Sea stocks: cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). Dynamics based on TEP are different from those based on SSB for cod and plaice, but the stock–recruit relationships were not ‘improved’ using TEP. Shifts in productivity (spawner per recruit) occur in all three time series and SSB underestimated uncertainty. Yet again, it was shown that assumptions of stationarity about fish population productivity are incorrect. We argue that the use of TEP does improve the realism in our understanding of stock dynamics, and demographically, more complex management strategy evaluation is required to develop management procedures that are robust to uncertainty and integrate F and the demographic health of a stock. Empirical feedback control systems based on fisheries independent indices including surveys of eggs, larvae, recruits, juveniles or spawning adults should be evaluated and compared to traditional approaches.     

Long-term trends in fish recruitment in the north-east Atlantic related to climate change

This study investigates the temporal correspondence between the main patterns of recruitment variations among north‐east Atlantic exploited fish populations and large‐scale climate and temperature indices. It is of primary importance to know what changes in fish stock productivity can be expected in response to climate change, to design appropriate management strategies. The dominant patterns of recruitment variation were extracted using a standardized principal component analysis (PCA). The first principal component (PC) was a long‐term decline, with a stepwise change occurring in 1987. A majority of Baltic Sea, North Sea, west of Scotland and Irish Sea populations, especially the gadoids, have followed this decreasing trend. On the contrary, some herring populations and the populations of boreal ecosystems have followed an opposite increasing trend. The dominant signal in north‐east Atlantic sea surface temperature, also extracted by a PCA, was highly correlated with the increase in the Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomaly, which is considered to be an index of global warming. The first component of recruitment was inversely correlated with these changes in regional and global temperature. The second PC of recruitment was a decadal scale oscillation, which was not correlated with climate indicators. The analysis of correlations between population recruitment and local temperature also indicated that the dominant pattern of recruitment variation may be related to an effect of global warming. The influence of fishing on recruitment, via its effect on the spawning stock biomass (SSB), was also investigated by the analysis of correlations between fishing mortality, SSB and recruitment. Results indicate that fishing can be another factor explaining recruitment trends, probably acting in combination with the effect of climate, but cannot explain alone the patterns of recruitment variation found here.     

Catching the future: Applying Bayesian belief networks to exploratory scenario storylines to assess long‐term changes in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras,Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar,Salmonidae) fisheries

Fisheries management aims to ensure that the fishing activities are environmentally sustainable in the long term, while also achieving the economic, social and food security related management objectives. To facilitate this, both the ecological and human dimensions of sustainability need to be included in fisheries assessment. In addition, assessing long‐term sustainability calls for taking into account plausible changes in the surrounding societal conditions that shape the characteristics of the fisheries governance system, as well as the ecological conditions. The paper uses a combination of qualitative exploratory scenario storylines (ESS) and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to integrate the environmental, economic, social and food security dimensions in an interdisciplinary assessment of the future sustainability of Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras, Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) fisheries. First, four alternative ESS were created based on plausible changes in societal drivers. The ESS were then formulated into a BBN to (a) visualize the assumed causalities, and (b) examine quantitatively how changes in the societal drivers affect the social‐ecological fisheries system and ultimately the fisheries management objectives. This type of probabilistic scenario synthesis can help in thinking qualitative scenarios in a quantitative way. Moreover, it can increase understanding on the causal links between societal driving forces and the complex fisheries system and on how the management objectives can be achieved, thereby providing valuable information for strategic decision‐making under uncertainty.     

Rebuilding Mediterranean fisheries: a new paradigm for ecological sustainability

In Mediterranean European countries, 85% of the assessed stocks are currently overfished compared to a maximum sustainable yield reference value (MSY) while populations of many commercial species are characterized by truncated size‐ and age‐structures. Rebuilding the size‐ and age‐structure of exploited populations is a management objective that combines single species targets such as MSY with specific goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF), preserving community size‐structure and the ecological role of different species. Here, we show that under the current fishing regime, stock productivity and fleet profitability are generally impaired by a combination of high fishing mortality and inadequate selectivity patterns. For most of the stocks analysed, a simple reduction in the current fishing mortality (F_cur) towards an MSY reference value (F_MSY), without any change in the fishing selectivity, will allow neither stock biomass nor fisheries yield and revenue to be maximized. On the contrary, management targets can be achieved only through a radical change in fisheries selectivity. Shifting the size of first capture towards the size at which fish cohorts achieve their maximum biomass, the so‐called optimal length, would produce on average between two and three times higher economic yields and much higher biomass at sea for the exploited stocks. Moreover, it would contribute to restore marine ecosystem structure and resilience to enhance ecosystem services such as reservoirs of biodiversity and functioning food webs.     

Environmental variability controls recruitment but with different drivers among spawning components in Gulf of St. Lawrence herring stocks

The factors affecting herring recruitment are still poorly understood, complicating the prediction of stock dynamics and the choice of operational management strategies. We investigated effects of intrinsic (SSB) and extrinsic factors (physical and biological environments, including competition and predation) on recruitment of the spring and fall spawning components of each of the two herring stocks occurring in the Gulf of the St. Lawrence between 1971 and 2014. Effects of potential explanatory factors on recruit (age 2) abundance were tested using Generalized Additive Models. Model fit was significantly improved by incorporating both physical and biological environmental variability, but effects of herring SSB and predation were not significant. Indices of zooplankton abundance and phenology explained more variance in recruitment than physical indices. Our results emphasize the dominance of bottom‐up processes over SSB in the regulation of herring recruitment. Environmental variability did not seem to act uniformly on the recruitment of either stock or their respective spawning components. A long‐term trend of decreasing recruitment in spring spawners was associated with a long‐term decline in abundance of cold water copepods. In fall spawners, optimal recruitment was dependent on warmer environmental conditions combined with an adequate supply (species composition and phenology) of zooplankton. These results provide the first empirical evidence that spring and fall spawning herring are adapted to contrasting environmental conditions and shed light on the potential mechanisms linking herring recruitment to key zooplankton community characteristics and phenology. Management strategies can be improved by incorporating this new knowledge on environmental drivers of herring recruitment.     

Size matters: How single-species management can contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management

In this study we show how substantial gains towards the goals of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) can be achieved by different single-species management. We show that fishing has much less impact on stocks if fish are caught after they have reached the size (L_opt) where growth rate and cohort biomass are maximum. To demonstrate our point we compare the impact of three fishing scenarios on 9 stocks from the North Sea and the Baltic. Scenario (1) is the current fishing regime, scenario (2) is a new management regime proposed by the European Commission, aiming for maximum sustainable yield obtained from all stocks, and scenario (3) is set so that it achieves the same yield as scenario (2), albeit with fishing on sizes beyond L_opt. Results show that scenarios (2) and (3) are significant improvements compared to current fishing practice. However, scenario (3) consistently shows least impact on the stocks, with seven-fold higher biomass of demersal fishes and an age structure similar to an unfished stock. This allows juveniles and adults to better fulfil their ecological roles, a major step towards the goals of ecosystem-based fisheries management. We give examples where scenario (3) is practiced in successful fisheries. We present a new interpretation of the relative yield per recruit isopleth diagram with indication of a new target area for fisheries operating within the context of EBFM. We present a new expression of the relative biomass per recruit isopleth diagram, which supports our analysis. We conclude that size matters for precautionary and ecosystem-based fisheries management and present a list of additional advantages associated with fishing at L_opt.     

The role of environmental conditions and exploitation in determining dynamics of redfish (Sebastes species) in the Northwest Atlantic

The six stocks of redfish (Sebastes spp.) in the Northwest Atlantic have been fished for the past 60 years, during which time they have also experienced considerable variability in environmental conditions. Despite their close proximity and with life‐history features characteristic of many deep‐sea fishes (long‐lived, slow‐growing, late‐maturing, relatively low fecundity), each redfish stock has displayed quite different dynamics. Some have been able to support apparently sustainable fisheries, whereas others have been forced to close. The causes of such differences are unclear. We used dynamic factor analysis to determine the relative impacts of exploitation (days fishing for redfish, days fishing for shrimp, days fished by all fisheries, catch in the redfish fishery, total redfish catch) and environment (North Atlantic Oscillation, surface temperature, salinity, shallow, middle, and deep bottom temperatures) on trends of abundance in each stock over the years 1960–2004. The results showed that a mix of exploitation and environmental variability, with various and different lag times, accounted for observed trends. The Gulf of St. Lawrence stock was affected most by exploitation. Flemish Cap and northern Newfoundland‐Labrador stocks were mostly affected by environmental factors with longer time lags than more southerly stocks. We conclude that management of redfish must take into account individual responses to exploitation and environment over the time periods during which such factors operate, often decades or more, as opposed to the usual practice of reviewing only dynamics of the past few years. Deep‐sea populations cannot be managed on the same scales as shelf fisheries.     

Integrating recreational fisheries data into stock assessment: implications for model performance and subsequent harvest strategies

Understanding the impacts of recreational fishing on commercially fished stocks is becoming increasingly relevant for fisheries managers. However, data from recreational fisheries are not commonly included in stock assessments of commercially fished stocks. Simulation models of two assessment methods employed in Australia's Commonwealth fisheries were used to explore how recreational fishery data can be included, and the likely consequences for management. In a data‐poor management strategy for blue eye trevalla, Hyperoglyphe antarctica (Carmichael), temporal trends in recreational catch most affected management outcomes. In a data‐rich age‐structured stock assessment for striped marlin, Kajikia audax (Philippi), estimates of stock status were biased when recreational catches were large or when the recreational fishery targeted different size classes than the commercial fishery and these data were not integrated into the assessment. Including data from recreational fishing can change perceptions of stock status and impact recommendations for harvest strategies and management action. An understanding of recreational fishery dynamics should be prioritised for some species.     

东南太平洋竹?鱼资源评估与捕捞控制规则模拟研究

以东南太平洋智利竹鱼为对象、以资源量动态模型为基础,使用模拟方法构建了"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业,评估了观测误差和过程误差对智利竹鱼资源评估和管理的影响。模拟的"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业结果显示,1997—2014年太平洋智利竹鱼资源量总体上呈逐年下降趋势,且远低于B_(MSY)的50%;捕捞死亡系数波动剧烈,仅在2012—2014年低于F_(MSY)且相对稳定。渔业资源评估模拟结果显示,观测误差和过程误差使资源量和B_(MSY)被低估,捕捞死亡系数和F_(MSY)被高估,且随机误差越大,资源量、B_(MSY)被低估,而捕捞死亡系数、F_(MSY)被高估的程度越大。渔业管理模拟的结果表明,捕捞控制规则采用恒定捕捞死亡系数时,未来10年基于50%2014年捕捞死亡系数的管理措施为最佳管理措施。由于捕捞死亡系数被高估,最佳管理措施实施后使得年总可捕捞量高于预期,而年资源量低于预期,资源量增长或恢复的速度变慢,资源可能同时处于过度捕捞状态和正遭受过度捕捞。过度捕捞的风险与随机观测误差和过程误差的大小成正比。     

The assessment of fishery status depends on fish habitats

At the crux of the debate over the global sustainability of fisheries is what society must do to prevent over‐exploitation and aid recovery of fisheries that have historically been over‐exploited. The focus of debates has been on controlling fishing pressure, and assessments have not considered that stock production may be affected by changes in fish habitat. Fish habitats are being modified by climate change, built infrastructure, destructive fishing practices and pollution. We conceptualize how the classification of stock status can be biased by habitat change. Habitat loss and degradation can result in either overly optimistic or overly conservative assessment of stock status. The classification of stock status depends on how habitat affects fish demography and what reference points management uses to assess status. Nearly half of the 418 stocks in a global stock assessment database use seagrass, mangroves, coral reefs and macroalgae habitats that have well‐documented trends. There is also considerable circumstantial evidence that habitat change has contributed to over‐exploitation or enhanced production of data‐poor fisheries, like inland and subsistence fisheries. Globally many habitats are in decline, so the role of habitat should be considered when assessing the global status of fisheries. New methods and global databases of habitat trends and use of habitats by fishery species are required to properly attribute causes of decline in fisheries and are likely to raise the profile of habitat protection as an important complementary aim for fisheries management.     

The unfulfilled potential of fisheries selectivity to promote sustainability

The recent reform of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in Europe highlights the need for improvements in both species and size selectivity. Regarding size selectivity, shifting selectivity towards older/larger fish avoids both growth and recruitment overfishing and reduces unwanted catches. However, the benefits to fish stocks and fishery yields from increasing age/size‐at‐selection are still being challenged and the relative importance of selectivity compared to that of exploitation rate remains unclear. Consequently, exploitation rate regulations continue to dominate management. Here, an age‐structured population model parameterized for a wide range of stocks is used to investigate the effects of selectivity on spawning stock biomass (SSB) and yield. The generic effect of selectivity on SSB and yield over a wide range of stocks is compared to the respective relative effects of exploitation rate and several biological parameters. We show that yield is mainly driven by biological parameters, while SSB is mostly affected by the exploitation regime (i.e. exploitation rate and selectivity). Our analysis highlights the importance of selectivity for fisheries sustainability. Catching fish a year or more after they mature combined with an intermediate exploitation rate (F ≈ 0.3) promotes high sustainable yields at low levels of stock depletion. Examination of the empirical exploitation regimes of 31 NE Atlantic stocks illustrates the unfulfilled potential of most stocks for higher sustainable yields due to high juvenile selection, thus underscoring the importance of protecting juveniles. Explicitly incorporating selectivity scenarios in fisheries advice would allow the identification of optimal exploitation regimes and benefit results‐based management.     

Coping with information gaps in stock productivity for rebuilding and achieving maximum sustainable yield for grouper–snapper fisheries

Maintaining fish stocks at optimal levels is a goal of fisheries management worldwide; yet, this goal remains somewhat elusive, even in countries with well‐established fishery data collection, assessment and management systems. Achieving this goal often requires knowledge of stock productivity, which can be challenging to obtain due to both data limitations and the complexities of marine populations. Thus, scientific information can lag behind fishery policy expectations in this regard. Steepness of the stock–recruitment relationship affects delineation of target biomass level reference points, a problem which is often circumvented by using a proxy fishing mortality rate (F) in place of the rate associated with maximum sustainable yield (F_MSY). Because MSY is achieved in the long term only if an F proxy is happenstance with F_MSY, characterizing productivity information probabilistically can support reference point delineation. For demersal stocks of equatorial and tropical regions, we demonstrate how the use of a prior probability distribution for steepness can help identify suitable F proxies. F proxies that reduce spawning biomass per recruit to a target percentage of the unfished quantity (i.e., SPR) of 40% to 50% SPR had the highest probabilities of achieving long‐term MSY. Rebuilding was addressed through closed‐loop simulation of broken‐stick harvest control rules. Similar biomass recovery times were demonstrated for these rules in comparison with more information‐intensive rebuilding plans. Our approach stresses science‐led advancement of policy through a lens of information limitations, which can make the assumptions behind rebuilding plans more transparent and align management expectations with biological outcomes.     

Quality and Processing Possibilities of Western Baltic Sea Spring Spawning Herring

Abstract

Until 1990 the western Baltic Sea spring herring has been extensively used as raw material for the processing industry of the former German Democratic Republic. Today North Sea herring and other Atlantic herring stocks are preferred and utilization of the Baltic Sea herring stock, which has been caught between January and May around the Island of Rügen and in the Greifswalder Bodden, has dropped down dramatically. The reduction in exploitation of this resource is connected to enhanced quality specification required by German herring processing companies after reunion of both states.

In this study the quality of Baltic Sea spring herring from ICES subdivisions 22 and 24 was assessed and following conclusions were obtained:

• Processing possibilities of Baltic Sea spring herring are limited due to low fat content (5-8%), a slight dry and short fiber texture and a less typical flavour and taste.

• Off-flavour and taste (tainting) which has been often observed until mid nineties disappeared within the last years.

• Infestation rates and abundance of nematodes (Anisakisspp.) are comparable to North Sea herring stocks.

• Contamination levels of organic and inorganic pollutants are far below legal limits.

Only gill net fishery and trap fishing are able to guarantee a continuous supply of desired size classes 2 and 3. Trial with pair trawl fishing did not show promising results.

Due to reorganization and reduction of local fishery activities during the past ten years, an increase of the annual landing capacity of more than 10,000 t is questionable in future.     

Fishing impact and environmental status in European seas: a diagnosis from stock assessments and ecosystem indicators

Stock‐based and ecosystem‐based indicators are used to provide a new diagnosis of the fishing impact and environmental status of European seas. In the seven European marine ecosystems covering the Baltic and the North‐east Atlantic, (i) trends in landings since 1950 were examined; (ii) syntheses of the status and trends in fish stocks were consolidated at the ecosystem level; and (iii) trends in ecosystem indicators based on landings and surveys were analysed. We show that yields began to decrease everywhere (except in the Baltic) from the mid‐1970s, as a result of the over‐exploitation of some major stocks. Fishermen adapted by increasing fishing effort and exploiting a wider part of the ecosystems. This was insufficient to compensate for the decrease in abundance of many stocks, and total landings have halved over the last 30 years. The highest fishing impact took place in the late 1990s, with a clear decrease in stock‐based and ecosystem indicators. In particular, trophic‐based indicators exhibited a continuous decreasing trend in almost all ecosystems. Over the past decade, a decrease in fishing pressure has been observed, the mean fishing mortality rate of assessed stocks being almost halved in all the considered ecosystems, but no clear recovery in the biomass and ecosystem indicators is yet apparent. In addition, the mean recruitment index was shown to decrease by around 50% in all ecosystems (except the Baltic). We conclude that building this kind of diagnosis is a key step on the path to implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.     

Voluntary angler logbooks reveal long‐term changes in a lentic pike,Esox lucius,population

Sixty‐two years of voluntarily collected angling logbook data from a large natural Danish lake were used to study variation in pike, Esox lucius L., CPUE (catch per unit effort), expressed as no. of captured pike per boat trip, as an index of stock size. Pike CPUE was positively related to pike release rate by anglers and negatively affected by certain commercial fishers. The stocking of young‐of‐the‐year pike and a fishery‐dependent index of perch, Perca fluviatilis L., abundance (which may be pike prey or predator depending on size) did not correlate with pike CPUE. Analyses of the size distribution of pike, based on sizes of annual record trophy pike captured by anglers, confirmed the negative impact of commercial pike fishing and revealed a positive influence of air temperature. It is concluded that high‐quality angler logbooks that record effort and catch can be a cost‐effective tool to inform lake fisheries management by revealing long‐term population trends. Further, state space modelling, a statistical technique not yet seen in recreational fisheries science, is recommended as a tool to model proxies for population dynamics from angler logbook data.     

澳洲鲭太平洋群系的资源评估与管理策略

澳洲鲭是西北太平洋重要的经济种类,了解和掌握澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源开发状况对确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。根据日本中央水产研究所提供的1995—2015年澳洲鲭太平洋群系的生产统计和资源调查资料,利用基于年龄结构的实际种群模型和单位补充量产量模型等进行资源量评估,分析澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源利用情况及其管理策略。结果显示,历年澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源量虽有波动但仍保持在较高水平,2015年资源量最高约为65万t;年平均捕捞死亡系数呈波动下降趋势,2015年捕捞死亡系数只有0.15,近五年平均捕捞死亡系数Fcur=0.33,单位补充量亲体量是未开发时的32.7%,不存在生长型捕捞过度,也不存在补充型捕捞过度,处于可持续开发状态。研究还探讨了水温变化引起自然死亡波动以及不同开捕年龄对澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源状况的影响。研究表明,该渔业目前开发和利用程度合理,建议使用F0.1做为管理参考点进行渔业资源的管理。     

Fisheries and conservation assessment of sharks in Pacific Panama

1. In Panama, shark fisheries were initially developed in the 1980s and progressively increased in production in the 1990s mainly due to the high demand for shark fins and meat from the international Asian market. Since then, and despite the exploitation rate (average 3,514 t year^–1) and endangered status of some species, shark fisheries have seldom been studied, and official statistics are general or incomplete and not suitable for the development of appropriate conservation and management strategies.
2. To understand the dynamics of shark fisheries in Panama, field surveys were conducted between 2007 and 2009 at several landing ports of small‐scale and industrial fisheries, at fish processing plants and on‐board fishing vessels in Pacific Panama, where most of the fishing vessels of the country operate.
3. In general, it was found that the artisanal and industrial fisheries of the Pacific coast of Panama regularly exploit at least 18 species of sharks, which are also being exploited by neighbouring countries in the eastern Pacific, suggesting the importance of coordinated conservation initiatives across the multiple jurisdictions. A large number of the individuals caught were immature, implying a certain level of impact on recruitment rates. This pattern was particularly evident in species such as Sphyrna lewini, for which immature individuals represented at least 99% and 63% of the total catch by small‐scale and industrial fisheries, respectively. Catch per unit of effort analyses showed that Carcharhinus and Sphyrna species were the most exploited (representing ~80% of the catches) by industrial fisheries in Panama between 2006 and 2009, suggesting that fishery management should provide special attention to these groups.
4. It is expected that the information presented here provides a baseline to develop new regulations, including the implementation of annual quotas and fishing seasons and the protection of nursery areas, for the long‐term sustainability and conservation of sharks in Panama.

     

死亡因素对放流明对虾群体资源变动及生物学参考点影响的量化评估

为评估环境突变、被捕食、纳潮、非法捕捞和交尾死亡对资源量和渔获量的影响,及5种死亡因素和与生长有关的参数引入不确定性对估算生物学参考点(Fmax和F0.1)的影响,基于发展的可应用于研究放流增殖渔业的YPR(yield per recruitment)模型,模拟5种死亡因素不同水平下放流中国明对虾的资源变动规律。结果显示,环境突变、被捕食、纳潮、非法捕捞和交尾死亡水平越高,单位放流资源量和渔获量越少,交尾死亡尤其对累计单位放流渔获量的影响明显;在未引入不确定性时,作用于开捕前的环境突变、被捕食、纳潮和非法捕捞死亡的不同水平对生物学参考点无影响,与生长有关的参数及5种死亡因素引入不确定性可能存在低估F0.1和Fmax的现象。研究表明,减小与放流技术有关的环境突变、被捕食、纳潮和非法捕捞死亡水平对提高放流中国明对虾渔业效果有明显的作用,交尾死亡发生的时间及死亡水平对放流中国明对虾渔获有直接的影响,当参数引入不确定性时进行放流中国明对虾资源评估,生物学参考点的中位数较均值抗不确定性干扰能力更强。     

Climate change alters fish community size‐structure,requiring adaptive policy targets

Size‐based indicators are used worldwide in research that supports the management of commercially exploited wild fish populations, because of their responsiveness to fishing pressure. Observational and experimental data, however, have highlighted the deeply rooted links between fish size and environmental conditions that can drive additional, interannual changes in these indicators. Here, we have used biogeochemical and mechanistic niche modelling of commercially exploited demersal fish species to project time series to the end of the 21st century for one such indicator, the large fish indicator (LFI), under global CO₂ emissions scenarios. Our modelling results, validated against survey data, suggest that the LFI's previously proposed policy target may be unachievable under future climate change. In turn, our results help to identify what may be achievable policy targets for demersal fish communities experiencing climate change. While fisheries modelling has grown as a science, climate change modelling is seldom used specifically to address policy aims. Studies such as this one can, however, enable a more sustainable exploitation of marine food resources under changes unmanageable by fisheries control. Indeed, such studies can be used to aid resilient policy target setting by taking into account climate‐driven effects on fish community size‐structure.