中国海洋经济区域竞争力测度指标体系研究

在解析海洋经济核心特征和海洋经济生产函数、明晰海洋经济竞争力概念的基础上,构建了一套包括发展基础、发展环境和业绩表现3大维度、资源环境等9个方面和62项具体指标的中国海洋经济区域竞争力测度指标体系。利用2011-2012年数据对中国沿海11个地区进行试测之后发现,测度结果符合中国沿海地区海洋经济发展竞争的现实,具有较高效度和信度,可指导沿海各地海洋经济的竞争发展。     

碳排放IDA模型的算法比较及应用研究

在分析碳排放指数分解模型IDA的基本理论框架和各类型算法的结构、特点基础上,以中国1991—2014年相关数据的实证分析作为各算法应用的解读,并基于适用性、有效性综合评价提出算法选择的参考信息:LD算法分解的各因素作用易于理解,但存在分解余项问题;RLD与Shapley算法能够实现因素完全分解,且本质上具有一致性;GFI算法适合多因素效应完全分解,但计算过程复杂;AMDI与AWD算法受到分解余项和对数权重赋值限制的影响约束;LMDIⅠ算法具有灵活的分解形式及因素完全分解特征等。     

A concise proof of a theorem on products of power sums

The heart of a direct solution of the problem of moments of moments is a formula for the expected value of a product of sample power sums in terms of a linear function of products of population power sums. Such a result was given by Skellam (1949) and, earlier and more generally, by Dwyer (1938). The approach here leads to a result for the easily handled case which features the product of unit power sums of each multivariate variable from which a general case comes by easy extension without the need of technical material required by the earlier approaches. A corollary provides a new solution for the problem of obtaining the unbiased estimate of any linear function of products of power sums.     

Out of Work,Out of Mind: Response Errors in Retrospective Reports of Unemployment

This article examines several aspects of the validity of retrospective reports of unemployment, obtained by a comparison of respondent reports with company records for a sample of workers from a large manufacturing firm. We find that reports of the total amount of unemployment in the calendar year prior to the interview are reasonably accurate, but reports of the timing of spells of unemployment within the year are much less accurate. Estimates of a regression model relating response error to measures of respondent characteristics, the length of the recall period, the difficulty of the reporting task, and the likely salience of the events show that the salience measures are clearly the most important and that time and demographic factors are relatively unimportant predictors of response error.     

OFDI对中国国际收支影响的机理与实际测算

国际直接投资不仅会影响东道国国际收支,也会对投资母国国际收支产生影响。本文重点分析了对外直接投资对母国国际收支的影响机制,并构建了对外直接投资对母国国际收支影响的数理分析框架,研究表明对外直接投资通过投资效应、利润汇回效应和贸易效应所包含的七个渠道影响母国国际收支;对外直接投资初期会造成母国国际收支净效应为负的情形,但伴随对外直接投资存量的累积,国际收支净效应会逐步为正。最后本文测算了中国对外直接投资对其国际收支的影响,结果表明中国对外直接投资收益率大于国内投资收益率;近年来国际收支净效应持续为负,但对改善 “双顺差”模式起到了积极作用。     

塔里木河流域绿洲生态水权流域分配调整研究

塔里木河流域没有绿洲生态水权流域分配调整,无法保证干流生态水权主体权责与客体分配,导致干流绿洲生态用水被挤占,生态环境退化。为此,界定了绿洲生态水权流域分配调整的内涵,确定了其计量方法和模型,并在此基础上对塔河流域绿洲生态水权流域分配调整进行了计量。结果表明:塔河流域绿洲生态水权流域分配调整,能落实干流绿洲生态水权主体权责和客体分配。绿洲生态水权流域分配调整使源流绿洲生态水权的流域分配增加,干流减少;年内分配主要在3⁵月和65月和6⁹月,其中,适宜绿洲生态水权流域分配调整与绿洲维持恢复生态水权流域分配调整较高;叶尔羌河流域分配调整增加最多,干流中下游减少最多。这可作为未来塔河流域绿洲生态水权流域分配调整的参考依据。     

Optimal and efficient treatment control design in the heteroscedastic one-way layout with covariates

In this article, we take up the experimental situation of a heteroscedastic one-way layout model in the presence of a set of controllable covariates. For the joint estimation of the elementary contrasts of a set of test treatments with a control and the effects of covariates, sufficient conditions for the existence of an A-optimal design are identified. When these sufficient conditions are not met, we propose highly A-efficient designs. The methods of construction of A-optimal and highly A-efficient designs are discussed. For different values of the parameters of the design, A-efficiency of the proposed designs are tabulated for a comparative study.     

The effect of verification bias on the comparison of predictive values of two binary diagnostic tests

The comparison of the accuracy of two binary diagnostic tests has traditionally required knowledge of the disease status in all of the patients in the sample via the application of a gold standard. In practice, the gold standard is not always applied to all patients in a sample, and the problem of partial verification of the disease arises. The accuracy of a binary diagnostic test can be measured in terms of positive and negative predictive values, which represent the accuracy of a diagnostic test when it is applied to a cohort of patients. In this paper, we deduce the maximum likelihood estimators of predictive values (PVs) of two binary diagnostic tests, and the hypothesis tests to compare these measures when, in the presence of partial disease verification, the verification process only depends on the results of the two diagnostic tests. The effect of verification bias on the naïve estimators of PVs of two diagnostic tests is studied, and simulation experiments are performed in order to investigate the small sample behaviour of hypothesis tests. The hypothesis tests which we have deduced can be applied when all of the patients are verified with the gold standard. The results obtained have been applied to the diagnosis of coronary stenosis.     

Number of matches and matched people in the birthday problem

The well known birthday problem asks for the probability of at least one match out of a group of n people. Also of interest are the number of matches and the number of matched people. In this paper the means and variances of the number of matches and matched people are obtained. A generalization of the use of these methods to computer storage analysis is discussed.     

REDUCED DISTANCE MEASURES AND TRANSFORMATIONS IN PROCESSING MULTIVARIATE OUTLIERS

The study of multivariate outliers raises many problems of definition, principle and manipulation. Well-authenticated tests of discordancy exist only for the multivariate normal distribution. Detection of outliers in non-normal distributions involves the adoption of appropriate criteria to represent 'extremeness' of observations in a sample; corresponding tests of discordancy usually require tedious, or even intractable, distributional and computational manipulations. A class of transformations of the data is considered with a view of transferring some of the familiar and desirable features of discordancy tests for normal samples to non-normal situations.     

Performance of nonparametric multiple comparison tests under heteroscedasticity,dependency, and skewed error distribution

In this article, an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to evaluate and compare nonparametric multiple comparison tests under violations of classical analysis of variance assumptions. Simulation space of the Monte Carlo study is composed of 288 different combinations of balanced and unbalanced sample sizes, number of groups, treatment effects, various levels of heterogeneity of variances, dependence between subgroup levels, and skewed error distributions under the single factor experimental design. By this large simulation space, we present a detailed analysis of effects of the violations of assumptions on the performance of nonparametric multiple comparison tests in terms of three error and four power measures. Observations of this study are beneficial to decide the optimal nonparametric test according to requirements and conditions of undertaken experiments. When some of the assumptions of analysis of variance are violated and number of groups is small, use of stepwise Steel-Dwass procedure with Holm's approach is appropriate to control type I error at a desired level. Dunn's method should be employed for greater number of groups. When subgroups are unbalanced and number of groups is small, Nemenyi's procedure with Duncan's approach produces high power values. Conover's procedure successfully provides high power values with a small number of unbalanced groups or with a greater number of balanced or unbalanced groups. At the same time, Conover's procedure is unable to control type I error rates.     

金融市场Tsallis参数的估计及其应用

首先介绍Tsallis分布及其在金融市场中的应用背景，对Tsallis分布中的Tsallis参数给出其估计的原理与步骤；然后利用外汇市场数据和中国A股市场部分股价数据进行实证分析，分别得到几种主要货币对之间汇价和中国几只A股股价运行过程中的Tsallis参数的估计值；最后给出了Tsallis参数估计在公司信用风险计量和公司股票欧式看涨期权价值计算两方面的应用，得到更合理的应用结果。     

Modelling the location decisions of manufacturing firms with a spatial point process approach

The paper is devoted to explore how the increasing availability of spatial micro-data, jointly with the diffusion of GIS software, allows to exploit micro-econometric methods based on stochastic spatial point processes in order to understand the factors that may influence the location decisions of new firms. By using the knowledge of the geographical coordinates of the newborn firms, their spatial distribution is treated as a realization of an inhomogeneous marked point process in the continuous space and the effect of spatial-varying factors on the location decisions is evaluated by parametrically modelling the intensity of the process. The study is motivated by the real issue of analysing the birth process of small and medium manufacturing firms in Tuscany, an Italian region, and it shows that the location choices of the new Tuscan firms is influenced on the one hand by the availability of infrastructures and the level of accessibility, and on the other by the presence and the characteristics of the existing firms. Moreover, the effect of these factors varies with the size and the level of technology of the new firms. Besides the specific Tuscan result, the study shows the potentiality of the described micro-econometric approach for the analysis of the spatial dynamics of firms.     

Testing hypotheses on coefficients of variation from a series of two-armed experiments

We consider the problem of testing hypotheses on the difference of the coefficients of variation from several two-armed experiments with normally distributed outcomes. In particular, we deal with testing the homogeneity of the difference of the coefficients of variation and testing the equality of the difference of the coefficients of variation to a specified value. The test statistics proposed are derived in a limiting one-way classification with fixed effects and heteroscedastic error variances, using results from analysis of variance. By way of simulation, the performance of these test statistics is compared for both testing problems considered.     

非市场服务产出核算理论问题研究

“索罗余数”问题 ,即可计量产出的增长大于可计量投入的增长的问题 ,一直是经济增长理论中无法解释的一个问题。对这个问题的解释有很多理论 ,最重要的解释是将这个现象归因于一些边际收益递增的投入因素 ,如规模效应、人力资本、知识和科学技术等 ;还有就是归因于投入中的一些不可测度的因素。美国著名统计学家格里利兹在他 1994年的美国经济学会主席演讲中则提出了另一个看法 ,那就是人们对经济的测度实际上十分有限 ;其中最严重的计量问题是由他所谓的“不可测度部门”所引起。所谓“不可测度部门 (unmeasurablesector)”主要是指服务业…     

Approaching in Distribution with Applications to Resampling of Stochastic Processes

We introduce the notion of weak approaching and conditionally weak approaching sequences of random processes. This notion generalizes the conventional weak convergence, and has been proposed for real valued random variables in Belyaev (1995). Some of the standard tools for an investigation of the behaviour of weak approaching sequences of random elements in metric spaces are developed. The spaces of smoothed and right-continuous functions with left-hand limits are considered. This technique allows us to use the resampling approach for an evaluation of distributions of continuous functionals on realizations of sum of an increasing number of independent random processes. Two numerical examples are presented for such functionals as supremum and number of level crossings.     

Criterion and selection of optimal subsets in the linear regression,two stage procedures

In many practical situation the regression analysis with stochastic regressors is used. The estimations of this model are often influenced by a high degree of multicollinearity. For avoidance of this fact a criterion and a procedure for the selection of an optimal subset for regression will be derived on the base of the partition of the moments of the conditional normal distribution of the regressand under the condition of the regressors. Further two stage procedures improving the result of the subset regression. based also on the partition of the conditional moments will be given.     

现代服务业集聚竞争力评价模型及其应用

在现代服务业集聚竞争力界定的基础上,借助结构方程模型,建立宏观层次的现代服务业集聚竞争力评价模型,以中国2002—2007年28个省域作为研究样本评价中国各区域现代服务业集聚竞争力,清晰认识不同区域现代服务业集聚发展的优势、劣势和差距,找出培育和提升本区域现代服务业竞争力优势最为关键和重要的集聚竞争力要素;并从宏观视角构建现代服务业集聚竞争力统计模型,科学评价中国现代服务业集聚竞争力及其区域差异,从而有针对性地为现代服务业集聚发展的措施提供科学依据。     

《新巴塞尔协议》框架下对中国国有银行资本充足率水平及对策的研究

According to the regulation of"New Basel Agreement", the paper analyses of the current condition of sufficiency rate of own capital of four state owned commercial banks of China and raises relevant suggestions of policies     

试论建立健全统计之行政程序

进一步增强行政程序意识、加强行政程序的建设，是政府部门的一项十分重要的任务。在当前，作为政府部门的统计机构，注重行政程序的建立和健全工作，并认真依照行政程序开展各项统计活动显得尤为重要。本文坚持理论联系实际的原则，对统计行政程序的含义、建立健全统计行政程序的重要意义、统计行政行为决策程序和统计行政程序建立健全中的若干关键问题等方面进行了初步的探讨，对于深入推进统计部门的依法行政具有一定的参考价值。