Risk and Quantification: A Linguistic Study

In risk analysis and research, the concept of risk is often understood quantitatively. For example, risk is commonly defined as the probability of an unwanted event or as its probability multiplied by its consequences. This article addresses (1) to what extent and (2) how the noun risk is actually used quantitatively. Uses of the noun risk are analyzed in four linguistic corpora, both Swedish and English (mostly American English). In total, over 16,000 uses of the noun risk are studied in 14 random (n = 500) or complete samples (where n ranges from 173 to 5,144) of, for example, news and magazine articles, fiction, and websites of government agencies. In contrast to the widespread definition of risk as a quantity, a main finding is that the noun risk is mostly used nonquantitatively. Furthermore, when used quantitatively, the quantification is seldom numerical, instead relying on less precise expressions of quantification, such as high risk and increased risk. The relatively low frequency of quantification in a wide range of language material suggests a quantification bias in many areas of risk theory, that is, overestimation of the importance of quantification in defining the concept of risk. The findings are also discussed in relation to fuzzy‐trace theory. Findings of this study confirm, as suggested by fuzzy‐trace theory, that vague representations are prominent in quantification of risk. The application of the terminology of fuzzy‐trace theory for explaining the patterns of language use are discussed.     

管理学的元问题与管理哲学——也谈《出路与展望:直面中国管理实践》的逻辑瑕疵

韩巍指出了<出路与展望:直面中国管理实践>的逻辑瑕疵.这些逻辑瑕疵体现了中国管理学界深层次的痛苦,它本质上来源于对中国管理实践中传统与现实、工具价值与本体价值之间联系的割裂.不从工具价值与本体价值融合的角度来考察中国管理实践的内涵,将永远不会找到中国本土管理学登堂入室的门径;同样,不从传统与现实融合的角度考察中国管理实践的内涵,"中国传统管理思想究竟有用没用"也将永远只会停留在"中体西用"和"西体中用"的陷阱中无法自拔.管理哲学通过对管理学主流研究范式的理性批判,会为中国本土管理学提供一个反思与探索的向导.不重视思辫的方法,一概排斤哲学对管理学的渗入,将极有可能使得若干"管理学在中国"的讨论变成原地转圈.     

管理：制定和实施规则的技术——管理规则论引论

通过对人类社会各类管理现象的考察,以及对几种代表性管理定义的分析,归纳出管理活动的特有行为方式的本质是制定和实施规则,并据此提出管理的基本职能及其相应的基本工作环节.     

面向复杂性:和谐管理理论的概念、原则及框架

从传统管理面临的困境入手,分析了和谐管理理论提出的必要性,对和谐管理理论的概 念、原则和基础框架进行了阐释. 从和谐主题出发,选择优化和不确定性消减的问题解决方式, 构成和谐管理理论认识论和方法论的基本特征. 在上述分析的基础上,提出了一个系统的和谐 管理分析框架.     

Analyzing the Value of Service Quality Management: Gaining Competitive Advantages

Parasuraman, Zeithaml and Berry (1990) demonstrate Service Qualitymeasurements that incorporate customer expectations provide richer informationthan those that focus on perceptions only. Also, executives in companies thathave switched to a disconfirmation-based measurement approach have greaterdiagnostic value.The research method design includes two alternative questionnaire formats:expectations and perceived levels of service quality. PZB (1994) theorizedthat the three-column format generates separate ratings of desired, adequate,and perceived service with three identical, side-by-side scales. It requirescomputing the perceived – desired and the perceived-adequate differencesto quantify measures of service superiority (MSS) and measures of serviceadequacy (MSA).Rust Zahorik and Keiningham (1993), Devin and Dong (1994) emphasized thereturn on service quality, as an investment is required to remain competitivein a global market. This research will give the university's administrators,as well as all corporate leaders the opportunity to implement `servicequality' improvement strategies in areas of weakness.     

基于风险视角的董事会相对权力与产品市场竞争力关系研究

利用2004~2012年928家深沪上市公司9年8 352个年度样本的大样本面板数据,从董事会治理风险的角度,验证了董事会相对管理层权力对公司产品市场竞争力的影响,检验了股权集中度和控股股东性质对两者关系的调节作用。研究发现,在不考虑股权集中度和控股股东性质的调节作用时,董事会相对权力同产品市场竞争力存在显著正相关关系;在考虑股权集中度和控股股东性质的情况下,股权集中度对董事会相对权力与公司产品市场竞争力之间关系有显著负向调节作用,控股股东性质对董事会相对权力与公司产品市场竞争力之间关系有显著负向调节作用。     

参与的乐趣——一个有中介的调节模型

随着消费个性化的提高和网络信息技术的发展,越来越多的企业通过提供定制化的产品建立顾客忠诚和赢得竞争优势。以产品定制为背景,基于顾客的视角,探讨顾客对不同参与程度的情感和行为反应及其影响因素,通过情境-角色模拟实验设计收集数据,运用逐步回归分析验证有中介的调节效应。研究结果表明,体验乐趣和满足独特性需求是顾客在参与产品定制过程中追求的重要利益;顾客参与程度正向影响消费者的感知乐趣和购买意愿,消费者独特性需求对顾客参与程度与感知乐趣和购买意愿的关系具有正向调节作用;同时,感知乐趣有效地传递顾客参与程度、独特性需求以及两者的交互作用对购买意愿的影响。因此,企业应该针对不同的细分群体采用顾客参与程度不同的定制化策略,并注重在定制过程中与顾客共同创造充满乐趣的独特体验。     

Bottleneck management: theory and practice

Advocates of TOC believe that bottleneck resource restricts an operation's ability to make money, and the best way to maximise income is to fully exploit the bottleneck resource. Almost all TOC literature focuses on situations where 100% bottleneck utilisation is applied. Based on the implementation experience, the finding is that the optimal level of bottleneck utilisation should be less than 100% and any attempt to increase utilisation beyond the optimal level brings disastrous results for a door manufacturing plant. In order to improve and maintain the performance of the plant effective bottleneck management is critical. The experience provides a deeper understanding of how to design such plants, which could be beneficial for practising managers and academics working with TOC concepts.     

产业群聚与产业的升级改造——以广东东莞的数码制造业为例

东莞数码产业的现状及其产业的发展路径表明,东莞产业升级与改造主要在于利用已有的国际大型数码制造商以及已建立起的相对完善的数码业的配套优势,发挥吸聚作用进一步促进产业的群聚;对原有企业的升级与改造则可通过产业群聚使群内的国内外先进企业对本地企业产生拉拨效应而实现。     

Performance as a Basis for Price-setting in the Capital Goods Industry:: Concepts and Empirical Evidence

This paper discusses a new pricing strategy, which leads to a certain variability of prices as the supplier offers to fix prices to performance parameters of long-lasting industrial goods. The underlying idea is to give a signal of the supplier’s competence and/or to conclude a contract, which contains additional value for both parties to the market. Some theoretical findings are applied to this concept and lead to 13 hypotheses, especially dealing with the perceptions of the buyer. Empirical research covered 131 German mechanical engineering companies. The data were used to evaluate the use of performance-based pricing and test the hypotheses. The results show a mixed picture. Uncertainty-reducing effects are well perceived while other assumptions could not be confirmed. Based on the results recommendations are developed on how and when to apply performance-based pricing.     

Ackoff's Fables revisited: stories to inform operational research practice

This paper considers Ackoff's Fables, a set of short stories published by Ackoff in 1978 as guides to creative problem solving. The paper argues that storytelling of this kind contributes usefully to management and MS/OR education, before addressing how such Fables might be interpreted. It is demonstrated, using one of Ackoff's Fables, The Smart Jackass, for illustrative purposes, that interpretation of even apparently straightforward stories such as these is not unambiguous. The Fables can be interpreted in a multitude of different and sometimes contradictory ways, and the truths they might contain are not self-evident. Yet, as the basis for discussion, they still have much to offer as educational tools. The paper concludes with a discussion of literal truth in stories, and presents a classification of story types according to their relationship to literal truth.     

基于产业结构优化的经济增长方式转变——作用机理及其测度

经济增长方式转变是由高级生产要素的生产和流动所引致的国民经济中一系列生产函数配置方式由低级向高级的动态演变过程,产业结构优化体现在发生配置方式变革的产业内部和产业之间各种生产函数的结构性调整,两者可归结为要素配置结构变革在不同层面上的体现。以要素配置结构变革为桥梁,从产业结构合理化和高级化角度研究经济增长方式转变的机理,并对大道定理进行拓展,认为产业结构优化与经济增长方式转变之间相互推动,使经济增长过程表现出阶段性的动态演变路径。基于此,从产业结构的微观要素配置层面和宏观动态演进层面构建判别经济增长方式转变的衡量体系,并指出经济增长方式转变取决于政府诱导性结构变迁手段和市场内生性结构变迁动力间的兼容程度。     

Flight gate scheduling: State-of-the-art and recent developments

This paper surveys a large variety of mathematical models and up-to-date solution techniques developed for solving a general flight gate scheduling problem that deals with assigning different aircraft activities (arrival, departure and intermediate parking) to distinct aircraft stands or gates. The aim of the work is both to present various models and solution techniques which are available in nowadays literature and to give a general idea about new open problems that arise in practise. We restrict the scope of the paper to flight gate management without touching scheduling of ground handling operations.     

Shiftwork locus of control: Scale development

Shiftwork is a significant feature of occupational life for many people. It can have disruptive effects on sleep, health, social activity and performance. It is likely that beliefs about personal control will influence the individual-shiftwork relationship. This paper has two aims; first, to put forward the thesis that shiftwork-specific personal control expectancies may moderate the disruptive impact of shiftwork, and second, to report the development and preliminary validation of a shiftwork-specific locus of control scale. The scale demonstrated satisfactory psychominary qualities in terms of factor structure, internal reliability, construct validity and test-retest reliability. Variables associated with better coping with shiftwork such as alertness, flexibility of sleeping habits and the structured use of time correlated positively with shiftwork locus of control. In contrast, shiftwork locus of control was found to be inversely related to shiftwork problems such as sleep disturbance, poor mental well-being and work stress.     

Shiftwork locus of control: Scale development

Abstract

Shiftwork is a significant feature of occupational life for many people. It can have disruptive effects on sleep, health, social activity and performance. It is likely that beliefs about personal control will influence the individual-shiftwork relationship. This paper has two aims; first, to put forward the thesis that shiftwork-specific personal control expectancies may moderate the disruptive impact of shiftwork, and second, to report the development and preliminary validation of a shiftwork-specific locus of control scale. The scale demonstrated satisfactory psychominary qualities in terms of factor structure, internal reliability, construct validity and test-retest reliability. Variables associated with better coping with shiftwork such as alertness, flexibility of sleeping habits and the structured use of time correlated positively with shiftwork locus of control. In contrast, shiftwork locus of control was found to be inversely related to shiftwork problems such as sleep disturbance, poor mental well-being and work stress.     

Machinery of Government in Small States: Issues,Challenges and Innovatory Capacity

Small states present particular challenges to designers of political and administrative systems, and far too often their governing patterns have been imposed by former colonial powers. There are nonetheless excellent examples of efforts to design systems which are appropriate to the needs of the small states themselves. This is explored in relation to the pattern of ministries and departments, the use of executive committees, the structure and size of legislatures, head of state/head of government arrangements, and a range of other machinery-of-government issues. Consideration also is given to factors which can be exploited to develop innovative capacity in small states, and some areas for further research are suggested.     

Designing effective team-based performance measurement systems: an integrated approach

Measuring the performance of teams and, in particular, designing effective team-based performance measurement systems (TPMS) can be a difficult task. The purpose of this paper is to take the reader through the development and testing of a construct that provides an integrated approach to facilitate the design of TPMS. This construct was developed and tested based on a rigorous set of criteria adopted from constructive research theory as well as from existing performance measurement literature. The construct was tested in a series of workshops described in this paper. The data gathered during these workshops demonstrates the novelty and validity of the construct. The paper should be of interest to managers, team leaders and indeed anyone who is interested in monitoring and managing team performance. The paper will also be of interest to academics working in the fields of performance measurement and team management.     

Technological forecasting of supercomputer development: The March to Exascale computing

Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve Exascale performance between early 2021 and late 2022 as either hybrid systems or manycore systems.     

Predicting Whistle Blowing: A Theory of Reasoned Action Approach

Fishbein and Ajzen's Reasoned Action model was used to predict intention to blow the whistle. Accounting students attending an Israeli university and accountant practitioners were used as the subjects for the study. It was hypothesized that attitudes and social norms would directly explain intention, while professional obligation, locus of control and professional socialization would modify the criterion variable through attitudes and social norms. Findings showed that social norms directly influenced intent to blow the whistle among both samples, as hypothesized. However, locus of control and professional socialization also directly influenced intent, rather than modifying the criterion variable. Suggestions for further research are included.