中国历史气候记录揭示的千年干湿变化和重大干旱事件

对中国历史气候记录的研究表明：准周期性是过去1000年间中国东部各区域的干湿气候变化的基本特征；各区域间主要周期变化的位相差异，表现为降水的空间分布格局（如南涝北旱、北涝南旱等分布型）随时间的变化；1000年来干湿气候发生过多次十年和百年尺度的突变，降水的突变对农业生产会有明显影响。过去1000年间多次出现过大范围的持续时间3年以上的严重于旱事件，其严重程度多为最近50年所未见，因此，在过去1000年的气候变化历程中，最近的50年沿属于气候条件较好 的时段，但对未来出现气候突变和重大气候灾异的可能性应予以警惕。     

Reconstructed index of summer monsoon dry-wet modes in East Asia for the last millennium

Monthly precipitation datasets collected at 160 stations in China as well as the monthly winds and humidity data derived from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were used to construct the relationship between six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China and the summer monsoon airflow northward advance in East Asia. A millennial series of the monsoon dry-wet index (MDWI) was reconstructed based on Wang??s six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China since 950 AD. A high (low) index indicates that the strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon airflow can reach northern (southern) China and cause above (below) normal precipitation. Interdecadal periodic variations, such as the approximate 70-year oscillation, can be found in the MDWI series. In the last millennium, northern China has experienced persistent decadal wet periods and persistent decadal dry periods. At present, the MDWI is a low period on the interdecadal time scale so above-normal precipitation is observed in southern China and below-normal precipitation in northern China.     

1470年～2000年长江中下游夏半年干湿变化的频谱分析

以长江中下游地区8个代表性站点1470年～2000年的旱涝等级资料和1951年～2000年5～9月的器测降水量数据为基础,采用EOF、滑动t检验、小波分析等统计技术,对1470年～2000年长江中下游地区干湿演变的时空特征进行了分析.结果表明:(1)旱涝等级资料能够准确表达该区域干湿演变的时空特征;(2)前3个主要模态——全区一致、东西相反、南北相反,基本上反映了该区域干湿变化的主要特征,其中第一模态解释了42.3%的方差;(3)在30年的时间尺度上,区域干湿突变均出现在1850s以前,1550s、1740s,1820s,1837s由干转湿,1620s、1520s和1850s由湿转干,近50a是过去500a中年际气候变率最大的时段;(4)干湿演变的主要周期是117a、40a、30a、18a、5a和2～3a,除了18年和2～3a的周期震荡强弱变化不明显外,其余的周期信号强弱均在18世纪温暖时段前后出现了明显变化.这也意味着,19世纪的寒冷时段并非是17世纪寒冷时段的循环再现,这两个寒冷时段存在着一定的差异.     

三峡库区石柱土戏调查报告

石柱土家族自治县位于重庆市东部长江南岸,是历史上长江文明和巴文化的交融地带。该县的非物质文化遗产丰富,土戏是重要代表之一。通过对石柱土戏的调查,使我们更进一步的认识和了解到土戏内涵,便于更好地保护和研究三峡库区非物质文化遗产。     

干湿循环下粉砂土改良膨胀土强度特性分析

干湿循环作用对膨胀土地基有较显著的影响,以黄泛区粉砂土改良膨胀土为研究对象,为研究改良膨胀土的强度受干湿循环作用的影响,设计并进行了不同含水率和干湿循环次数对改良膨胀土作用的直剪试验。试验发现：反复的干湿循环作用后,土体由于干缩产生裂隙,试件结构被破坏,整体稳定性下降,强度降低。改良膨胀土的抗剪强度和干湿循环次数呈负相关;前三次干湿循环作用时,土体粘聚力下降较迅速,随后几次干湿循环粘聚力下降幅度较小;随干湿循环次数的改变,内摩擦角基本没有较大幅度的变化。     

基于地理加权回归的江南市镇发展动力机制分析(1736-1949年)

为揭示18世纪中叶至20世纪中叶江南市镇分布演变的驱动力并展现其时空演变过程,分别以1736—1850年和1851—1949年的市镇数量为因变量,以其所对应的人口数量、人口密度、河流密度和海拔中位数为自变量,建立了江南市镇数量演变的时空模型(GWR模型);再将市镇核密度图和产业区图进行叠加,以观察产业因素对市镇发展的影响.研究结果表明:(1)1736—1850年,江南地区市镇分布存在空间集聚性;1851—1949年,集聚性有所降低. (2)江南人口增长较为稳定地驱动全局市镇数量增长. (3)1736—1850年,河流密度显著地驱动了江南东部地区的市镇增长. (4)1851—1949年, 江南东部部分地区河流密度与本地市镇数量增长之间转为负相关关系. (5)1851—1949年,环太湖地区及江南西北地区的河流密度显著地驱动市镇数量增长. (6)未能纳入GWR模型分析的区域中所出现的市镇数量爆发性增长现象与当地植棉业密切相关.     

Global and China temperature changes associated with the inter-decadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon advances

The modern atmospheric observation and literatural historical drought-flood records were used to extract the inter-decadal signals of dry-wet modes in eastern China and reveal the possible relationship of global and China temperature changes associated with the East Asian summer monsoon advances.A climate pattern of "wet-north and dry-south" in eastern China and cool period in China and globe are associated with the strong summer monsoon that can advance further to the northernmost part in the East Asian monsoon region.On the contrary,a climate pattern of "dry-north and wet-south" in eastern China and a warm period in China and globe are associated with the weaker summer monsoon that only reaches the southern part in the region.An interdecadal oscillation with the timescale about 60 years was found dominating in both the dry-wet mode index series of the East Asian summer monsoon and the global temperature series after the secular climate states and long-term trend over inter-centennial timescales have been removed.     

安徽动物地理区划

本文提出江淮分水岭作为世界动物地理区划中的古北界和东洋界在我国东部安微省的分界线。在研究安微陆栖脊椎动物区系的基础上,将全省划分为淮北平原区,江淮丘陵区、大别山区、沿江平原区及皖南山区共五个动物地理分布区、对各区中的兽类、鸟类、爬行类及两栖类,按区系组成、优势类群、珍稀和经济动物以及资源分布和利用现状,分别进行了论述。     

Changes of climate extremes of temperature and precipitation in summer in eastern China associated with changes in atmospheric circulation in East Asia during 1960–2008

Climate extremes and changes in eastern China are closely related to variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and corresponding atmospheric circulations.The relationship between frequencies of temperature and precipitation extremes in China during the last half century is investigated using Singular Value Decomposition analysis.During 1980-1996,there was a typical pattern with fewer hot days and more precipitation extremes in the northern part of eastern China,and more hot days and fewer precipitation extremes in the southern part.This geographic pattern tended to reverse after 1997,with fewer hot days and more extreme precipitation days south of the Yangtze River and vice versa to the north.Differences in atmospheric circulation between the former and latter periods are presented.We conclude that a mid-level anomalous high/low,upper-level anomalous easterlies/westerlies over the north/south of eastern China,a weakened East Asian summer monsoon and associated upper-tropospheric center of cooling(30°N,110°E) are all favorable for the changes in frequencies of temperature and precipitation extremes.     

对云南2011年冬季降水的延伸期天气预测试验

 在前期对MJO研究基础上于2011年11月8日根据MJO的活动情况及发展趋势,作出"云南延伸期天气预测第3次试验(11月12日—12月15日)".通过对天气形势及云南省天气实况的具体对比分析,就该实验进行了认真检验:在干窗口期云南日降水距平百分率几乎维持在-100%,基本无有效降水,与试验结论1基本一致;在湿窗口期有2次合适的环流形势引导赤道地区的水汽进入云南,分别造成云南南部及云南东部的降水和雨雪天气过程,与试验结论2和3一致;在干窗口后期滇中以南、以东地区出现一次小雨降水过程,预报试验对MJO的传播速度估计偏慢;本次在西南地区极端干旱背景下的延伸期预测实验是成功的,为云南省气象台提高冬季延伸期干湿预报和雨雪天气预报的水平提供了实用的理论依据,对提前准备人工降雨等工作以缓解西南地区的旱情有很好的贡献.     

关于夏季南亚高压的进一步研究Ⅰ.与我国西北地区降水关系的统计分析

为了进一步统一分析夏季１００ｈＰａ南亚高压脊线和中心位置与西北地区降水的关系，利用１９７０～１９８５年７～８月逐日历史天气图及降雨量等资料，统计了南亚高压脊线和中心活动的基本特征；划分了逐日东、西部型及带状型南亚高压及持续的东、西部型南亚高压过程，还区分了西北区东、西部的多雨、少雨日。结果表明：南亚高压脊线和中心位置（特别是持续的东、西部型南亚高压过程）与西北区东、西部多雨和少雨过程有密切联系     

Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004

The surface wetness index, Palmer drought sererity index and the retrieval of soil moisture over China were calculated using monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature. Based on the contrast analysis of the variation of the above three indices and precipitation, the dry/wet spatio-temporal pattern of northern China in the last 54 years was revealed, and the evidence of drying trend over northern China was analyzed, especially. The results show the following four facts: (1) The drying trend is the main characteristic of the eastern part of Northwest China and the central part of North China since the 1980s and it was enhanced in the last 15 years mainly due to the precipitation decrease and the temperature increase; (2) During the last 54 years, there was only one dry/wet shift at the interdecadal scale occurring in the eastern part of Northwest China and the central part of North China in the late 1970s, which was related to 1977/1978 global abrupt change, whereas there were three shifts in Northeast China, one was in the mid 1990s and the other two were in 1965 and 1983, respectively; (3) Unlike the variation trend of other subregions of northern China, the western part of Northwest China is currently located in a relatively wetting period, which is weak-ened due to the temperature increase; (4) The extreme drought frequency is obviously increasing in the eastern part of Northwest China, the central part of North China and Northeast China since the 1980s, which is closely related to the precipitation decrease and temperature increase in these subregions.     

Simulated analysis of summer climate on centennial time scale in eastern China during the last millennium

Using Lanczos filtered simulation results from the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere model, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal structure of temperature and precipitation on centennial time scale to examine how climate change in eastern China responded to external forcing during the last millennium. The conclusions are (1) eastern China experienced a warm-cold-warm climate transition, and the transition from the warm period to the cold period was slower than the cold to warm transition which followed it. There was more rainfall in the warm periods, and the transitional peak and valley of precipitation lag those of temperature. The effective solar radiation and solar irradiance have significant impacts on the temporal variation of both temperature and precipitation. Volcanic activity plays an important role in the sudden drop of temperature before the Present Warm Period (PWP). There is a positive correlation between precipitation and volcanic activity before 1400 A.D., and a negative relationship between the two thereafter. The concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the PWP, and the temperature and precipitation increase accordingly. (2) The spatial pattern of the first leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of temperature on centennial time scale is consistent with that on the inter-annual/inter-decadal (IA-ID) time scales; namely, the entirety of eastern China is of the same sign. This pattern has good coherence with effective solar radiation and the concentrations of greenhouse gases. The first leading EOF mode of precipitation on centennial time scale is totally different from that on the IA-ID time scales. The first leading mode of centennial time scale changes consistently over the entirety of eastern China, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are the opposite to the rest of eastern China is the leading spatial pattern on IA-ID time scale. The distribution of precipitation on centennial time scale is affected by solar irradiance and greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years

Based on plant phenology data from 26 stations of the Chinese Phenology Observation Network of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the climate data, the change of plant phenophase in spring and the impact of climate warming on the plant phenophase in China for the last 40 years are analyzed. Furthermore, the geographical distribution models of phenophase in every decade are reconstructed, and the impact of climate warming on geographical distribution model of phenophase is studied as well. The results show that (ⅰ) the response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear. Since the 1980s, at the same amplitude of temperature change, phenophase delay amplitude caused by temperature decrease is greater than phenophase advance amplitude caused by temperature increase; the rate of phenophase advance days decreases with temperature increase amplitude, and the rate of phenophase delay days increases with temperature decrease amplitude. (ⅱ) The geographical distribution model between phenophase and geographical location is unstable. Since the 1980s, with the spring temperature increasing in the most of China and decreasing in the south of Qinling Mountains, phenophases have advanced in northeastern China, North China and the lower reaches of the Changjiang River, and have delayed in the eastern part of southwestern China and the middle reaches of the Changjiang River; while the rate of the phenophase difference with latitude becomes smaller.     

Tree-ring precipitation records from Baiyinaobao,Inner Mongolia since A.D. 1838

Tree rings have attracted the wide attention of geo- environmental and climatic scientists due to its high resolution and accuracy. Lots of important results about climatic change have been obtained for the last 100 to 2000 years when it has no instrumental observation and people are very concerning about it nowadays. For example, by using tree-ring data, temperature, precipitation and drought history have been reconstructed back to hundreds of or thousands of years for different regions in th…     

江淮流域夏季降水异常及与全球中低纬海温异常关系的诊断研究

对1951－1999年中国夏季江淮流域降水异常与海温异常关系的分析表明,前期及同期各季节三大洋海表温度异常（SSTA）与长江流域降水异常的关系是非常显著的,而对淮河流域降水异常总体上的影响较小,前期冬季SSTA的影响显著区主要有：热带印度洋、黑潮、热带中东太平洋和大西洋,各关键区海温异常对亚洲夏季风的影响特征为：当前期冬季赤道印度洋、黑潮、赤道大西洋和热带东太平洋海表温度异常升高（降低）,当年夏季印度西南季风和东亚热带辐合带减弱（加强）,副热带高压位置偏南（北）,副热带辐合带加强（减弱）,长江流域易发生洪涝（干旱）,相关显著性分析表明,前冬赤道印度洋和黑潮区的海温异常对中国夏季降水的影响更为显著。     

Reconstruction of precipitation in the last 140 years from tree ring at south margin of the Tengger Desert, China

Based on the tree ring width index of Pinus tabulaeformis, precipitation in the last 140 years was reconstructed at south margin of the Tengger Desert. The results indicated that there were obvious fluctuations of dry-wet changes in precipitation： two wet periods occurred during 1868-1876 and 1932-1939, and two dry periods during 1877-1894 and 1924-1932, however, the years 1887 and 1888 were a little wet. There were small changes in precipitation during 1895-1923 and 1940-2000. As compared to the average, the maximum increasing range of precipitation amounted to 56% during the wet periods, and 42% during the dry periods. And the range of variability of precipitation exceeded 30% in 19 years. There was no obvious consistent drying or wetting trend in the last 140 years. But since 1940 fluctuating scope of precipitation tended to be smaller, while the frequency of the fluctuation tended to be larger. Power spectrum analyses suggested that precipitation of south margin of the Tengger Desert had significant periodicities of 2.46-2.64 a and quasi periodicity of 11.67 a.     

长江三角洲南翼第四纪沉积层序及其与古环境演变的耦合

为研究长江三角洲南翼第四纪地层划分及其与古环境演变的耦合关系,对长江三角洲南翼的第四系BZK02孔(孔深322. 1 m,取芯率大于96%),进行沉积物粒度、孢粉和微体古生物分析,结合岩性地层讨论了上新世以来钻孔揭示的孢粉组合、古环境演化、沉积层序和古气候特征。结果表明,研究区上新世以来经历了多次环境变化,孢粉类型鉴定133种,有孔虫鉴定17属29种,介形类鉴定7属8种。钻孔自下而上揭示岩性第四纪沉积地层依次为上新统嘉兴组一段(299. 8～322. 0 m)、早更新统嘉兴组(160～299. 8 m)、中更新统前港组(87. 3～160. 0 m)、晚更新统东浦组(72. 0～87. 3 m)、晚更新统宁波组(18. 6～72. 0 m)、全新统镇海组(0～18. 6 m)。古环境演化主要表现为上新世以残积坡、河流沉积为主,气候温冷偏湿;早更新世以河流相、河湖相沉积为主,气候经历温暖湿润-寒冷干燥变化的2个旋回;中更新世早期为河流-滨海相沉积,气候温暖湿润,晚期为河湖相沉积为主,气候温凉干燥;晚更新世以河湖、潮坪、河口沉积环境为主,气候经历温暖湿润-温暖偏干-温暖偏湿-寒冷干燥变化;全新世以浅海相、河湖相、湖沼相沉积环境,气候特征早期为干冷,晚期温暖偏干。     

Response of water budget to recent climatic changes in the source region of the Yellow River

Discharge in the source region of the Yellow River significantly declined after 1990.China Meteorological Administration(CMA) data show that precipitation in this region was low in the 1990s but returned to above normal after 2002;in recent decades there has been rapid warming of surface air,moistening and wind speed decrease.To investigate the influences of recent climatic changes on the water budget,this study simulates the surface water budget at CMA stations within and surrounding the source region during 1960-2006,using an improved land surface model.Results indicate that the spatial pattern of precipitation change is an important factor(except for precipitation amount and intensity) in determining the response of runoff to precipitation changes.Low runoff in the 1990s was consistent with precipitation amount and intensity.The recovery of precipitation after 2002 is mainly from increased precipitation in the dry area of the source region.Evaporation was mainly limited by water availability in this dry area,and thus most of the precipitation increase was evaporated.By contrast,energy availability was a more important influence on evaporation in the wet area.There was more evaporation in the wet area because of rapid warming,although precipitation amount partly decreased and partly increased,contributing to the reduction of runoff after 2002.This control on evaporation and its response,together with the modified spatial pattern of precipitation,produced a water budget unfavorable for runoff generation in the source region during recent years.     

中国城市空气质量与土地集约利用的匹配关系及影响因素

 从空间匹配角度探究空气质量与土地集约利用的相互作用关系及影响因素,对缓解空气污染、创新城市节约集约用地新模式具有重要意义。利用趋势面、空间自相关、重力模型、空间错位模型、灰色关联度模型等方法对全国290个地级及以上城市空气质量与土地集约利用水平的空间分异规律、空间匹配关系及其驱动因素进行探讨。结果表明：（1）2017年全国城市空气质量在空间上呈现出以冀中南城市群为核心向外逐渐好转的中心-外围结构,集聚特征显著;全国城市土地集约利用水平在空间上呈现出以京津冀、长三角、珠三角城市群为核心向外扩散的多核空间结构,集聚特征亦比较明显。（2）全国城市空气质量与土地集约利用水平在空间上存在不完全协同、匹配现象,负向错位区主要分布在京津冀和长三角城市群,错位强度呈核心-边缘的空间结构,正向错位区分布在东北、西南、西北和南部沿海地区,错位强度呈现出由东南向西北方向递减的空间分布格局;空间错位贡献度具有明显的地域差异性,东部地区尤为突出。（3）全国城市空气质量与土地集约利用两系统总体关联度较强,其中影响空气质量的污染物浓度以及影响土地集约利用的归一化植被指数（NDVI）、建成区绿化率和地均工业废水排放量等因素为造成两系统空间错位差异的主要原因。