Optimal index shooting policy for layered missile defense system

In order to cope with the increasing threat of the ballistic missile(BM)in a shorter reaction time,the shooting policy of the layered defense system needs to be optimized.The main decisionmaking problem of shooting optimization is how to choose the next BM which needs to be shot according to the previous engagements and results,thus maximizing the expected return of BMs killed or minimizing the cost of BMs penetration.Motivated by this,this study aims to determine an optimal shooting policy for a two-layer missile defense(TLMD)system.This paper considers a scenario in which the TLMD system wishes to shoot at a collection of BMs one at a time,and to maximize the return obtained from BMs killed before the system demise.To provide a policy analysis tool,this paper develops a general model for shooting decision-making,the shooting engagements can be described as a discounted reward Markov decision process.The index shooting policy is a strategy that can effectively balance the shooting returns and the risk that the defense mission fails,and the goal is to maximize the return obtained from BMs killed before the system demise.The numerical results show that the index policy is better than a range of competitors,especially the mean returns and the mean killing BM number.     

基于偏好DEA模型的应急资源优化配置

从应急系统中应急资源的投入产出的整体相对效率考虑, 提出了新的资源优化配置的非参数DEA模型,对应急系统中应急资源总体利用情况进行了评价.在此基础上,考虑到决策者的偏好信息,构造了偏好的DEA资源配置决策模型.最后,通过对一个算例的具体分析,清楚地表明,在资源总量控制的情况下,利用本文提出的非参数偏好DEA模型对应急资源进行统筹安排和合理配置,可以大大提高应急系统的整体相对效率.     

An impact angle constraint integral sliding mode guidance law for maneuvering targets interception

An integral sliding mode guidance law(ISMGL)combined with the advantages of the integral sliding mode control(SMC)method is designed to address maneuvering target interception problems with impact angle constraints.The relative motion equation of the missile and the target considering the impact angle constraint is established in the longitudinal plane,and an integral sliding mode surface is constructed.The proposed guidance law resolves the existence of a steady-state error problem in the traditional SMC.Such a guidance law ensures that the missile hits the target with an ideal impact angle in finite time and the missile is kept highly robust throughout the interception process.By adopting the dynamic surface control method,the ISMGL is designed considering the impact angle constraints and the autopilot dynamic characteristics.According to the Lyapunov stability theorem,all states of the closed-loop system are finally proven to be uniformly bounded.Simulation results are compared with the general sliding mode guidance law and the trajectory shaping guidance law,and the findings verify the effectiveness and superiority of the ISMGL.     

Finite-Time and Fixed-Time Synchronization of Inertial Neural Networks with Mixed Delays

This paper considers the drive-response synchronization in finite-time and fixed-time of inertial neural networks with time-varying and distributed delays(mixed delays). First, by constructing a proper variable substitution, the original inertial neural networks can be rewritten as a first-order differential system. Second, by constructing Lyapunov functions and using differential inequalities,some new and effective criteria are obtained for ensuring the finite-time synchronization. Finally, three numerical examples are also given at the end of this paper to show the effectiveness of the results.     

Timing Prediction Error Volatility and Dynamic Asset Allocation

We solve a portfolio selection,problem in which,return predictability,risk predictability and transaction cost are incorporated.In the problem,both expected return,prediction error volatility,and transaction cost are time-varying.Our optimal strategy suggests trading partially toward a dynamic aim portfolio,which is a weighted average of expected future tangency portfolio and is highly influenced by the common fluctuation of prediction error volatility(CPE).When CPE is high,the investor would invest less and trade less frequently to avoid risk and transaction cost.Moreover,the investor trades more closely to the aim portfolio with a more persistent CPE signal.We also conduct an empirical analysis based on the commodities futures in Chinese market.The results reveal that by timing prediction error volatility,our strategy outperforms alternative strategies.     

基于佣金约束的排污权拍卖机制

基于传统的排污权拍卖机制只考虑买卖双方在最大利益原则驱动下厂商的最优出价策略、卖方的期望收益行为等特点,分析了佣金条件下排污权的私人价值和关联价值拍卖机制问题.结果表明,佣金对厂商的出价策略、环保部门和拍卖公司的期望收益都存在影响,佣金的比例与拍卖公司的期望收益同方向变动,与环保部门的期望收益反方向变动,而与厂商的期望收益无关.     

飞机朝后座椅的保护作用模型研究

为了进一步提高民航旅客运输的安全性和减少飞机事故的伤亡率,对飞机座椅朝后这一新概念,从安全防护的改善方面进行了系统分析和定量的描述,建立了冲撞缓冲效果的估算模型,进行了相关的简单试验,并分析了空难幸存案例,从中得出结论,如果把飞机座椅朝后安装,可以主动地、大幅度地提高事故中对人体的防护能力,减少伤害率.另外,通过比较发现,由此带来的改善,并不减少飞机原有的性能指标,也不增加成本和维护的复杂性.最后提出了分级布置飞机客舱座椅的建议,以便保留部分朝前的座椅供一些有偏好的旅客进行选择,使所有的座椅安全性都有所提高,起到了系统优化的作用.此模型为新一代面向用户的飞机设计,提供了一个系统安全分析的基础.     

地面站系统服务能力评估指标及其计算方法

针对地面站系统服务能力评估问题,研究了其评估指标及其计算方法.首先从卫星、地面站两个方面建立了地面站系统服务能力评估指标,并就各个指标以及指标的应用进行了分析.然后给出了两种指标计算方法:FCFS(First Come First Service)方法和启发式方法.最后通过实例仿真,表明该指标及方法能够较好的解决地面站系统服务能力评估问题中的是否增建新地面站、是否在某地面站中增加天线等重大决策问题.     

Metropolis-Hastings自适应算法及其应用

首先阐述Metropolis-Hastings算法实现的具体步骤,然后证明由此产生的Markov链满足细致平衡条件,从而以目标分布为不变分布.接下来给出几个计算实例,以说明提议函数及其方差的选取对采样结果的影响,并由此推出一种改进的自适应算法用以寻找合适的提议函数及其方差.最后,通过贝叶斯Logistic模型的例子说明M-H方法在贝叶斯分析中的应用,同时也检验M-H自适应算法的效果.     

Optimal Grading Policies in the Online Acquisition of Used Products

Although online reverse commerce(recommerce)is convenient and efficient,it is not without caveats.It limits recommerce firms’flexibility to offer personalized prices and may cause mismatched grading between the firms and sellers of used products.This study examines a recommerce firm’s decision on grading criteria and prices.We find that the firm’s optimal policy exhibits two distinctly different patterns depending on the trade value of the product.We demonstrate that sellers’overestimate and underestimate errors have qualitatively different effects on firm profitability,and the effects crucially rely on the type of optimal policy.These findings can apprise firms on how to preset sorting criteria and prices as well as reduce grading errors.     

Evolutionary game analysis of problem processing mechanism in new collaboration

This paper analyzes a problem processing mechanism in a new collaboration system between the main manufacturer and the supplier in the"main manufacturer-supplier"mode,which has been widely applied in the collaborative development management of the complex product.This paper adopts the collaboration theory,the evolutionary game theory and numerical simulation to analyze the decision-making mechanism where one upstream supplier and one downstream manufacturer must process an unpredicted problem without any advance contract in common.Results show that both players'decision-makings are in some correlation with the initial state,income impact coefficients,and dealing cost.It is worth noting that only the initial state influences the final decision,while income impact coefficients and dealing cost just influence the decision process.This paper shows reasonable and practical suggestions for the manufacturer and supplier in a new collaboration system for the first time and is dedicated to the managerial implications on reducing risks of processing problems.     

Junction Point Elimination based Tamil Handwritten Character Recognition:An Experimental Analysis

Optical Character Recognition is the mechanical or electronic conversion of images of typed,handwritten or printed text into machine-encoded text for online reading and study.In this OCR technique,Tamil handwritten character recognition is one of the most needed and challengeable subjects of research.An encounter between selection and extraction of proper features eliminates the issues faced by the Tamil handwritten recognition.The character and the writers complexities are the major difficulties and challenges faced by this recognition system.Eventually,the character complexity can be overcome by any pre-extraction or selection process,wherein,structured or statistical pre-extraction algorithm can be designed,discovering the essential features,in the case of writer difficulties.The challenges of Tamil handwritten characters are structure over looping;unnecessary character portion;structure discontinuations and so on.The character portions in this research are chosen by implementing a new algorithm called the Junction Point Elimination(JPE)after conscientious analysis done on the existing algorithms like Zoning,Zoning and Junction Point(ZJP)and the Junction Point (JP) based feature pre-extraction process.The novelty behind this work is introducing an algorithm in order to truncate the problem in the existing feature selection and preextraction algorithms.Suitable feature extraction and classification algorithm are chosen and applied on the features extracted by JPE to test whether the same can be reached in successful manner.The final analysis and experiments shows that the JPE is better than the others.     

俄罗斯研制可重复使用的载人航天器

俄罗斯"能源"火箭航天集团正在研制可重复使用的新一代载人航天器,以替代服役了近半个世纪的"联盟"系列飞船.该集团正就舱式结构的载人飞船和带折叠机翼的航天飞机两种方案进行论证.采用舱式结构的俄罗斯"联盟"载人飞船长期以来以高可靠性、高稳定性著称."能源"集团的专家们计划对"联盟"飞船进行现代化改造,进一步提高飞船性能、降低成本.     

城市电子政务服务仿真研究

为定量研究信息技术、组织结构等对城市政府服务质量的影响,本文在综合分析城市电子政务服务系统基础上,描述了分散式和集成式服务模式(纳入传统政府服务作比较),建立了通用逻辑模型及算例逻辑数据模型,采用Arena仿真方法比较分析了3类模式响应能力和使用方便性等服务质量指标.仿真结果表明:同等条件下分散式服务模式(应用信息技术)优于传统政府服务模式,集成式服务模式(信息技术应用结合组织结构优化)具有前两者所无法比拟的优势.     

行为控制制度的数学描述与有效性分析

以管理实践中广泛应用的"疑罪从无"以及"奖励制度"为例,给出了制度的回报概率描述与博弈树描述,制度有效条件的数学模型描述等研究方法.特别是给出了制度有效条件的数学模型,以及制度的观测力度、控制回报差异、自然回报期望值差异,行为成本差异等重要概念,指出在维持制度的有效性的前提下,这些因素之间的制约关系.这些都可以推广应用于各种制度的研究中,为制度研究提供了定量分析与统计观测的新方法.     

中国房地产市场管制中四大利益集团联盟的博弈分析

为了回答中央政府在中国房地产市场管制中如何解决利益集团联盟导致房价飞涨的问题,基于合作博弈的方法,分析了中央和地方政府、房地产商和国际投机商在支持和反对管制两方面形成单人、两人、三人以及四人联盟的条件、联盟的最优形式以及维持联盟的利益分配向量.发现:管制净收益与市场调控平均净收益的关系决定管制与反管制联盟的形成的条件;最优的联盟形式取决于同类策略的四人支付和与反管制时福利总损耗的比较;维持联盟的个人向量由个人支付和反对管制的福利损耗确定.中央政府应该建立和维持"管制联盟"来瓦解"反管制联盟".     

基于核子解的最终交叉效率权系数确定方法

介绍了交叉效率评价方法,分析了利用最终平均交叉效率值来对DMU进行评价时所存在的诸多缺陷,结合合作博弈理论,放松最终确定效率值的平均化假设,把需要作评价的各个决策单元作为合作博弈的局中人,并定义了包含所有局中人在内的联盟博弈及其各种子联盟的特征函数值,在分析各种联盟博弈解优劣的基础上,选择核子作为联盟博弈的解,并通过遗传算法求解出该博弈的核子解,从而确定了最终交叉效率的权系数.最后通过一个算例说明该方法的有效性.     

基于委托代理理论的末位淘汰制的定量研究

针对我国目前企事业单位在实施末位淘汰制过程中的一些非理性行为,利用委托代理理论,建立了末位淘汰制的数学模型.通过严格的数理推导,分别对实施末位淘汰制的前提、实施末位淘汰制过程中的公平公正性问题和实施末位淘汰制后的激励效果进行了分析;得出了4条具有指导性意义的结论;阐述了实施末位淘汰制应注意的问题.     

An Efficient Multiple Imputation Approach for Estimating Equations with Response Missing at Random and High-Dimensional Covariates

Empirical-likelihood-based inference for parameters defined by the general estimating equations of Qin and Lawless(1994) remains an active research topic. When the response is missing at random(MAR) and the dimension of covariate is not low, the authors propose a two-stage estimation procedure by using the dimension-reduced kernel estimators in conjunction with an unbiased estimating function based on augmented inverse probability weighting and multiple imputation(AIPW-MI) methods. The authors show that the resulting estimator achieves consistency and asymptotic normality. In addition, the corresponding empirical likelihood ratio statistics asymptotically follow central chi-square distributions when evaluated at the true parameter. The finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator is studied through simulation, and an application to HIV-CD4 data set is also presented.     

Platform Competition for Advertisers and Viewers in Media Markets with Endogenous Content and Advertising

In this paper,we investigate two competing pay-tv platforms or free-to-air media platforms that consist of two groups of agents:viewers and advertisers.The pay-tv platforms can receive revenues from charging viewers pay-per-view prices and advertising,while the free-to-air platforms can only obtain all incomes from advertising.We discuss and compare advertising intensities and program content provisions of the two competing media platforms.Our findings show that if the extent to which viewers dislike advertising(the nuisance for advertising)is more massive than the marginal benefit that advertisers receive from an additional viewer,the pay-tv stations tend to maximally differentiate their program content and charge the viewers higher pay-per-view prices.If the nuisance approaches to the marginal benefit,however,both stations should offer similar program content,and charge the viewers lower prices under certain conditions.Particularly,if both platforms provide duplicated content,they should subsidize the viewers.In contrast,we show that the free-to-air media platforms never duplicate program content with a positive nuisance for advertising,and tend to offer maximal differentiated content if the nuisance is sufficiently large.Moreover,we reveal that if the viewers greatly dislike advertising(care less about advertising),the advertising volume of the pay-tv platforms is lower(higher)than that of the free-to-air platforms.Finally,we extend our base model to the case in which a pay-tv platform competes against a free-to-air station,and numerically show that the profit of the pay-tv platform may be larger or smaller than that of the free-to-air station.