First-order differential sensitivity analysis of a nuclear safety system by Monte Carlo simulation

In this paper we employ a Monte Carlo method to compute the first-order, differential sensitivity indexes of the basic events characterizing the reliability behavior of the containment spray injection system of a nuclear power plant. An exemplification is provided as to how the obtained sensitivity indexes can be used to drive improvements in the system design and operation.     

Quantitative Analysis of Dynamic Fault Trees Based on the Coupling of Structure Functions and Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of Dynamic Fault Trees (DFTs) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. In a previous article, we defined an algebraic framework allowing to determine the structure function of DFTs. We exploit this structure function and the minimal cut sequences that it allows to determine, to know the failure mode configuration of the system, which is an input of Monte Carlo simulation. We show that the results obtained are in good accordance with theoretical results and that some results, such as importance measures and sensitivity indexes, are not provided by common quantitative analysis and yet interesting. We finally illustrate our approach on a DFT example from the literature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Importance and sensitivity analysis of multi-state systems using the universal generating function method

A method for the evaluation of element reliability importance in a multi-state system is proposed. The method is based on the universal generating function technique. It provides an effective importance analysis tool for complex series–parallel multi-state systems with a different physical nature of performance and takes into account a required performance (demand). The method is also extended for the sensitivity analysis of important multi-state system output performance measures: mean system performance and mean unsupplied demand during operating period. Numerical examples are given.     

考虑顾客给出服务期望容忍区间的服务质量评价方法

针对服务系统的服务质量评价问题,给出了一种考虑顾客给出服务期望容忍区间的服务质量评价方法。在该方法中,首先通过调查问卷方式获取顾客的服务质量期望容忍区间和服务感知评价信息,并依据专家给出的评价指标重要性分值计算服务质量评价指标的权重;然后采用加权平均法对顾客评价信息进行集结,得到服务系统的综合服务质量感知价值;进一步地,运用分值标度转化方法,确定服务系统的服务质量等级。最后,通过一个实例分析说明了本文提出方法的可行性和潜在的应用。     

集成量纲分析的多元测量系统能力评价

多元测量系统分析是多元质量控制的重要内容。现有的研究主要是利用统计学的方法,如多元方差分析法和主成分法等进行分析评价。本文提出了基于量纲分析的多元测量系统能力评价方法,集成物理和统计分析方法,利用物理中量纲分析的方法研究产品各相关变量之间的物理关系,将多元测量系统问题转化为一元测量系统问题。从而可以利用一元测量系统能力评价的统计方法及指标来对测量系统的能力进行评估。同时,本文重复了纸飞机试验,并运用基于量纲分析的多元测量系统能力评价方法对纸飞机的测量系统进行了分析评价,验证了该方法的有效性。     

Multi-element probabilistic collocation for sensitivity analysis in cellular signalling networks

The multi-element probabilistic collocation method (ME-PCM) as a tool for sensitivity analysis of differential equation models as applied to cellular signalling networks is formulated. This method utilises a simple, efficient sampling algorithm to quantify local sensitivities throughout the parameter space. The application of the ME-PCM to a previously published ordinary differential equation model of the apoptosis signalling network is presented. The authors verify agreement with the previously identified regions of sensitivity and then go on to analyse this region in greater detail with the ME-PCM. The authors demonstrate the generality of the ME-PCM by studying sensitivity of the system using a variety of biologically relevant markers in the system such as variation in one (or many) chemical species as a function of time, and total exposure of a single chemical species.     

Complete matrix formulation of fault-position method for voltage-dip characterisation

The method of fault position is useful for characterising power-system performance in the presence of voltage dips due to faults. It is based on short-circuit simulations repeated for all the system nodes and for many points along the system lines: fault voltages that are below a preset threshold are the required voltage dips. These dips are stored in so-called dip matrices which contain only the dips in all the system nodes when faults occur at points along the lines. The paper proposes a new compact analytical formulation of dip matrices for balanced and unbalanced faults in terms of bidimensional vector relations and for site- and system-voltage dip indexes. Compact formulations are very useful tools when several sensitivity analyses have to be conducted to estimate variation of site- and system-voltage dip indexes in relation to possible reinforcement and/or compensation devices. Graphical presentation of dip matrices is also proposed as a valuable tool to ascertain the critical area for system performance. Numerical applications to an actual transmission system are presented to demonstrate the easy applicability of the model.     

Theoretical assessment of a highly sensitive photonic crystal fibre based on surface plasmon resonance sensor operating in the near-infrared wavelength

A surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensor comprising a photonic crystal fibre (PCF) with an annular analyte channel outside the fibre is described and analysed. The losses of the sensor are analysed by the finite element method (FEM) with the boundary condition of a perfectly matched layer (PML). The influence of the structural parameters on the performance of the sensor is investigated based on the loss spectra of the fundamental mode. The relationship between the resonance wavelengths and analyte refractive indexes is established for refractive indexes ranging from 1.395 to 1.425. An average spectral sensitivity of 12,592.86?nm/RIU can be achieved in the sensing range corresponding to a resolution of 7.94×10^?6?RIU. The maximum spectral sensitivity and the maximum figure of merit (FOM) are as high as 22,807.14?nm/RIU and 595.78, respectively.     

Accounting for components interactions in the differential importance measure

A limitation of the importance measures (IMs) currently used in reliability and risk analyses is that they rank only individual components or basic events whereas they are not directly applicable to combinations or groups of components or basic events. To partially overcome this limitation, recently, the differential importance measure (DIM), has been introduced for use in risk-informed decision making. The DIM is a first-order sensitivity measure that ranks the parameters of the risk model according to the fraction of total change in the risk that is due to a small change in the parameters’ values, taken one at a time. However, it does not account for the effects of interactions among components. In this paper, a second-order extension of the DIM, named DIM^II, is proposed for accounting of the interactions of pairs of components when evaluating the change in system performance due to changes of the reliability parameters of the components. A numerical application is presented in which the informative contents of DIM and DIM^II are compared. The results confirm that in certain cases when second-order interactions among components are accounted for, the importance ranking of the components may differ from that produced by a first-order sensitivity measure.     

振动特征值的边界约束刚度灵敏度

研究基于边界约束刚度修改的振动值灵敏度问题。利用摄动法,将微分方程和边界条件化为不同摄动阶的微分方程和边界条件,从而得到特征值问题的灵敏度方程。运用有限元法,推导了特征值的边界约束刚度灵敏度的近似表达式,并用算例作了说明。     

可靠性灵敏度分析的自适应重要抽样法

基于全局优化的模拟退火方法,提出了结构可靠性灵敏度分析的自适应重要抽样方法。所提方法由模拟退火来逐步寻找结构最可能失效点,通过逐步优化的最可能失效点来构建可靠性灵敏度分析所需的重要抽样函数。从重要抽样密度函数中抽取样本,来对结构可靠性灵敏度作无偏估计,推导了可靠性灵敏度估计量方差和变异系数的计算公式。与基于Monte-Carlo法的可靠性参数灵敏度分析相比,该方法具有更高的抽样效率,算例证明了所提方法的优越性。     

基于二阶常微分方程的多体系统动力学设计灵敏度分析的伴随变量方法

针对二阶常微分方程描述的多体动力学模型和通用积分形式的目标函数,通过引入伴随变量,系统地推导了多体系统动力学设计灵敏度分析计算公式,避免了直接微分方法中广义坐标及其各阶导数对设计参数偏微分的计算,在设计参数较多的情况下提高了计算效率。又将目标函数及其导数积分形式的计算转化为微分方程的初值问题,进一步提高了计算效率和精度。文末给出一个平面机械臂模型算例。     

基于主成分层次分析的产品设计语义差分评价研究

目的 以外观设计评价为研究对象,提出一种语义差分评价方法。方法 运用主成分分析法,对初始多维语义进行主成分提取,得出综合语义指标和分值,再通过层次分析法构建综合语义指标的主观评价矩阵,最终得出综合语义分值。结论 针对46款热销女士洗发水瓶的外观设计样本,实现了语义差分评价。运用主成分—层次分析—语义差分评价的方法,实现了近似语义的归类。依据综合语义权值,得出了语义差分分值,并适用于较大样本的外观设计评价。     

A hybrid direct‐automatic differentiation method for the computation of independent sensitivities in multibody systems

The usefulness of sensitivity analyses in mechanical engineering is very well‐known. Interesting examples of sensitivity analysis applications include the computation of gradients in gradient‐based optimization methods and the determination of the parameter relevance on a specific response or objective. In the field of multibody dynamics, analytical sensitivity methods tend to be very complex, and thus, numerical differentiation is often used instead, which degrades numerical accuracy. In this work, a simple and original method based on state‐space motion differential equations is presented. The number of second‐order motion differential equations equals the number of DOFs, that is, there is one differential equation per independent acceleration. The dynamic equations are then differentiated with respect to the parameters by using automatic differentiation and without manual intervention from the user. By adding the sensitivity equations to the dynamic equations, the forward dynamics and the independent sensitivities can be robustly computed using standard integrators. Efficiency and accuracy are assessed by analyzing three numerical examples (a double pendulum, a four‐bar linkage, and an 18‐DOF coach) and by comparing the results with those of the numerical differentiation approach. The results show that the integration of independent sensitivities using automatic differentiation is stable and accurate to machine precision. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

旅游服务质量信用评价基本指标体系研究

旅游企业服务质量欠佳、失信问题频繁发生,通过建立服务质量信用评价指标体系,评价企业服务质量信用水平,对预防服务质量信用风险具有重要意义.本文以旅游服务型企业为研究对象进行分析与讨论,提出了建立旅游服务质量信用评价基本指标体系的方法.该指标体系在意愿、能力、表现3个维度上建立了4个一级指标,同时设计了17个二级测量指标,并在此基础上使用层次分析法计算确认了各级指标的权重数值.     

System reliability and sensitivity factors via the MPPSS method

A procedure is presented for obtaining the reliability of series, parallel, and mixed systems. The method, called Most Probable Point System Simulation (MPPSS) is simple, and numerically-based. We do not make any claims of analytic advance. Nevertheless, the procedure is more accurate than current analytically-based bounding methods (e.g. bi-modal) and it is computationally efficient. In addition, the method can be used to obtain system sensitivity factors, that is, the importance of each random variable to the system reliability. The procedure is demonstrated through three example illustrations.     

An analytical procedure for dynamic response determination of a viscoelastic beam with moderately large deflection using first-order shear deformation theory

In this article, the dynamic response of a viscoelastic beam with moderately large deflection subjected to transverse and axial loads is studied using the first-order shear deformation theory. The von-Karman strain displacement relations and Hooke's law are used for formulation. The solution of the equations, which are a system of nonlinear partial differential equations, are obtained analytically using the perturbation technique in conjunction with the eigenfunction expansion method. The results are compared with the finite elements method. Also, a sensitivity analysis is performed, and the effects of geometrical and material properties are investigated on the response.     

Using polypyrrole as the contrast pH detector to fabricate a whole solid-state pH sensing device

In this paper, we use the extended gate field effect transistor (EGFET) and the coated wire electrode (CWE) to design a differential pH-sensing device. The SnO/sub 2//ITO glass structure is the EGFET used as the pH sensor because of its excellent pH sensitivity of about 57.10 mV/pH. The contrast pH sensor is the polypyrrole/SnO/sub 2//ITO glass structure CWE, which has the lower pH sensitivity of about 27.81 mV/pH, and we use the third SnO/sub 2//ITO glass structure as the reference electrode to serve the base potential of the electrolyte solution. The pH sensitivity of this differential pH-sensing device is about 30.14 mV/pH and it is linear. Hence, this device is a good pH sensor. By using this technology, the differential pH-sensing device has a lot of advantages, such as simple fabrication, solid-state electrodes, easy packaging, low cost, etc.     

Dynamic characteristic prediction of multistage gear-cylinder transmission system

Dynamic behavior of gear-cylinder directly affecting the printing quality and efficiency is one of the key elements in offset printing. In order to study the problem of ink bar and ghosting caused by excessive vibration, a new model taking into account a variety of key physical factors is developed to predict the dynamic characteristics of a gear-cylinder system using the lumped parameter method. An appropriate mathematical tool is utilized to describe the meshing stiffness and transmission error function, thereby deducing the equations of motion with 16 degrees of freedom. In addition, the partial differential equation of sensitivity analysis in matrix form is obtained after the completion of formula transformation. The simulation results obtained from dynamic response and sensitivity analysis show that the proposed model is reliable enough to be used for dynamic characteristic prediction of a gear-cylinder system.     

Use of the least squares criterion in the finite element formulation

This paper presents a new method of formulating the finite element relationships based on the least squares criterion. To overcome the high degree of inter-element continuity, a method of reducing the original governing differential equation to a set of equivalent system of first-order differential equations is proposed. The validity of the method is demonstrated by means of several numerical examples. In particular, application of the method to problems with unknown variational functionals is considered.