广州市非户籍常住人口的变化分析

广州市是中国社会经济发展水平较高的大城市,也是“珠三角”外来人口的主要流入地。2010年全国第六次人口普查结果显示,广州市的非户籍常住人口规模高达476．0万人,占广州市人口总量的37．47％。而且,通过与2000年全国第五次人口普查结果的对比发现,广州市非户籍人口的年龄结构、地区分布、家庭户比重、行业及职业构成等都发生了一定的变化。非户籍常住人口构成的这些变化,对广州市的外来人口管理、公共服务的均等化以及户籍制度改革等提出了新要求。     

人口迁移、户籍城市化与城乡收入差距的动态收敛性分析——来自262个地级市的证据

本文以2000-2016年262个地级市为研究对象,从城市规模视角探究城乡收入差距的动态收敛问题,分析人口迁移和户籍城市化对城乡收入差距的影响。研究结果表明:全国及不同规模城市的城乡收入差距存在显著的绝对收敛和条件收敛,大城市的绝对收敛速度高于中小城市以及特(超)大城市,而中小城市的条件收敛速度高于大城市以及特(超)大城市;从分周期的"动态收敛"看,整个周期内无论是绝对收敛还是相对收敛速度均呈现不断下降趋势,而大城市以及特(超)大城市城乡收入差距的条件收敛速度逐渐超过了绝对收敛速度,在中小城市则表现为相反的走势。进一步分析影响城乡收入不平等因素,发现人口迁移显著缩小收入差距,且通过户籍城镇化机制发生作用,迁入人口若能顺利转变为城镇人口可缩小收入差距。目前在大城市中迁移人口获得城市户籍较难,而小城市相对而言获得城市户籍较为容易,在低于526.48万人的小规模城市中户籍城市化更加利于城乡收入差距的缩小。这些发现对解决日益严重的城乡收入差距问题提供了有益的启示。     

广东省外来人口的定居性与流动性初步分析

根据人口普查资料,文章分析了广东省外来人口在居住地的时间分布情况,描述了不同人口属性和不同社会、经济特征的外来人口在居住时间上的差别,并且描述了在居住地出生"外来人口"的一些特征,最后利用Logistic回归对影响外来人口居住时间长短的多种因素做综合分析。在描述分析的基础上,论文最后指出,必须正视大量的外来人口实际上已经转变为长期定居人口的事实,并解决其产生的相关社会问题。     

外来流入人口的分母效应与大城市育龄妇女的超低总和生育率--以京、津、沪为例

全国第五次人口普查结果显示,2000年京、津、沪三大城市的总和生育率已经降低到0.67、0.88和0.68的超低水平.分析表明,大量外来人口的涌入和高等院校在校生规模的迅速扩大,以及无户籍"漂泊"人口的增加是造成大城市育龄妇女总和生育率超低水平的根本原因.在这种情况下,总和生育率指标在功能上存在明显的缺陷,既不能反映大城市育龄妇女真实的时期生育率水平,也不能反映大城市育龄妇女实际的终身生育水平.     

迁移与滞留：广东省人口老化的区域特征研究

论文描述了广东省人口老化的基本过程,分别从经济区、大城市、农村、外来人口聚集区与人口大规模外流区等多个层面上分析了人口老龄化的区域特征。指出了区域发展不平衡导致的青年人的流动和老年人口滞留在经济相对滞后的区域是影响人口老化区域差异的重要因素。     

20世纪90年代京津沪城市经济发展与外来人口比较研究

本文通过比较20世纪90年代京津沪城市经济发展和外来人口规模,得出结论:从经济发展水平看,虽然天津明显滞后于北京和上海,但近几年天津经济的后发优势逐渐显现;天津人口自然增长率高于京沪,但迁移增长率较低,从趋势上看,京沪净迁移率趋于上升,天津则陷入停滞;在常住人口增长方面,天津显著落后于其他两个城市,年均增长率约为京沪的一半,其主要原因是天津外来人口增加的规模较小、速度较慢,非户籍常住人口占总人口的比重低。此外,京津沪外来人口在空间分布、时间分布、职业分布和年龄结构方面也存在显著差异。     

大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析

利用2008年四大城市的外来人口问卷调查资料,运用多层次Logit模型分析影响大城市外来人口迁移行为的个体因素和迁入地因素。研究发现,外来人口的迁移行为发生较大的变化,城城迁移所占比重的上升导致性别、婚姻状况以及户口类型等因素对迁移概率的影响并不显著,迁移更多地表现为以家庭为单位;由于外来人口在就业和工资收入上受到不同程度的歧视,加之迁入地产业结构调整升级,就业岗位的增加对外来人口的吸引力有所下降,并且其预期收入水平与城市居民平均收入水平相脱离;城市平均工资增长率的提高对非正规部门劳动力产生了挤出效应,减小了潜在迁移者的迁移概率。     

自由贸易试验区设立对城市就业结构的影响

文章从就业结构角度探讨自由贸易试验区设立的政策效应,基于2003～2019年中国233个城市的面板数据,将自贸区设立视为一项准自然试验,利用多期双重差分模型实证检验自贸区设立对制造业就业和服务业就业的影响。研究发现,自贸区设立显著增加了所在城市的服务业就业比重,并降低了制造业就业比重,由此促进了就业结构升级。机制分析表明,自贸区设立能够通过劳动力流动、产业升级和金融发展改变所在城市的就业结构。自贸区设立显著增加生产性服务业就业比重,降低非高技术制造业就业比重,但对非生产性服务业和高技术制造业的就业影响不显著。同时,沿海城市设立自贸区能显著增加服务业就业比重并降低制造业就业比重,而内陆城市设立自贸区的就业效应不显著。空间效应分析表明,自贸区设立会显著减少邻近城市服务业就业比重,产生虹吸效应。文章结论对构建更高水平对外开放、充分发挥开放型经济新体制对区域就业的引导性作用具有一定的参考价值。     

青年流动人才的城市选择及影响机制——基于人才特征视角

文章利用2017年流动人口动态监测数据,构建多值Logit模型,从个体特征、流动特征、经济特征三个维度,探究青年流动人才选择流入Ⅱ型大城市、Ⅰ型大城市、特大超大城市影响因素差异。回归结果显示,女性、非农户籍青年流动人才大城市偏好明显,小家庭模式增加特大超大城市选择概率;流动年限越长、流动距离越远,流入城市规模越大,基于经济原因流动,特大超大城市选择概率下降;雇员倾向规模更大城市,雇主倾向规模更小城市,职业、单位正规性越好,社会声望越高,越倾向特大超大城市,就业收入、居住支出随城市规模扩大,影响由负转正。为提高城市人才引进效率,规范城市人才引进秩序,建议应加快户籍制度改革,扩大社会资源覆盖范围;减少公共服务使用限制,保障随迁人员福利;充分发挥城市比较优势,打造核心竞争力多维体系;突出城市行业特色,完善城市行业结构。     

我国大城市人口和产业增长的非中心化研究

一、国内外关于大城市空间增长的研究二战以前,从世界范围来看,城市化以人口集中为主要特征,大量的农村人口纷纷向城市集聚,形成了一些人口密集,结构单一.规模超过50万,100万,乃至逾千万的大城市和特大城市.战后,随着资本主义经济的迅猛发展,城市迅速向外膨胀,在西方发达国家出现了郊区城市化,人口和产业迅速向外扩散.特别是七、八十年代以来,西方发达国家人口的再分布出现逆向,人口和就业由中心城市向郊区、小城镇、甚至更远的农村地区转移,称之为逆城市化.无论是郊区化还是逆城市化,都有一个共同的特征,即城市外围区域的增长快于中心城区,所以统称为非中心化过程.     

Making a place in the metropolis: Locational attainment in cities and suburbs

What accounts for the differences in the kinds of communities within the metropolis in which members of different racial and ethnic groups live? Do socioeconomic advancement and acculturation provide greater integration with whites or access to more desirable locations for minority-group members? Are these effects the same for Asians or Hispanics as for blacks? Does suburbanization offer a step toward greater equality in the housing market, or do minorities find greater discrimination in the suburban housing market? Data from 1980 for five large metropolitan regions are used to estimate "locational-attainment models, " which evaluate the effects of group members’ individual attributes on two measures of the character of their living environment: the socioeconomic standing (median household income) and racial composition (proportion non-Hispanic white) of the census tract where they reside. Separate models predict these outcomes for whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. Net of the effects of individuals’ background characteristics, whites live in census tracts with the highest average proportion of white residents and the highest median household income. They are followed by Asians and Hispanics, and-at substantially lower levels-blacks. Large overall differences exist between city and suburban locations; yet the gap between whites and others is consistently lower in the suburbs than in the cities of these five metropolitan regions.     

学龄人口变动与基础教育资源配置的协调性及原因探析——以上海为例

本文以全国第六次人口普查为依据,分析了上海市学龄人口的空间分布及基础教育资源的供给现状、学龄人口变动与基础教育资源配置的适应性及原因。结果显示：上海市幼儿园教育资源短缺最为严重,小学缺口业已凸显;市区教育资源投入要好于郊区,而学龄人口有向郊区变动的态势,导致郊区教育资源的短缺较为严重;市区优质资源远多于郊区,与学龄人口的分布严重不符。导致以上问题的原因有：出生人数持续处于高位导致学前教育资源整体缺口较大;常住人口向郊区变动致使郊区基础教育资源严重短缺;由客观、主观等原因造成的全市优质教育资源配置不均．跨区域择校问题依旧。     

On the role played by household registration materials in China's 1982 population census]

The author examines the relationship between the 1982 census and the population registration system in China. Because the household registration data are so complete (they include data on permanent and temporary residence, births, deaths, and migration), they were used as a starting point for census taking. In order for the census to take advantage of household registrations, the registration data were reviewed and corrected. This both reduced the cost of taking the census and improved the quality of the registration data.     

Housing Cost Burden and New Lawful Immigrants in the United States

Housing in the United States constitutes the largest expenditure for many households. Increasing rents and home prices, changes in the mortgage industry, and the growing importance of immigrants in the U.S. housing market underscore the value of examining the economic hardship that housing costs pose for immigrants. As is true for the native-born, immigrants’ allocation of financial resources to housing influences the funds available for savings, investments, survival of emergencies, and the overall economic well-being of children and families. This project employs 2003 national-level data of legal permanent residents from the New Immigrant Survey to examine an outcome lacking sufficient empirical study: the proportion of household income spent on housing. The study examines whether disparities in immigrant housing cost burden by country/region of origin persist after accounting for differences in human capital, stage in the life cycle, assimilation, and other factors. The analyses disaggregate immigrants from Latin America, Asia, Europe and other areas into more nuanced categories. The results document that after controlling for a diverse array of variables, legal immigrants vary widely in housing cost burdens by country/region of origin. These disparities have implications for the future wealth accumulation and long-term financial security of immigrants in the United States.     

Characteristics of the statute of China's population census in 1982]

China's 1982 census is described. The purpose was to contribute to the modernization of socialism. It was based on current conditions in China and conducted under government supervision using the international experience of the US, Canada, the Philippines, and Japan and with UN assistance for census sampling methods and computer data processing techniques. The census was taken with a strong emphasis on procedural quality control. Its target was Chinese citizens living in China and its territories; each individual was to be registered in his own domicile. The 1982 census listed 19 category items, over twice as many as the 1953 and 1964 censuses. Added to the basic information items of name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, ethnic origin, and education, were new items including employment, marital status, total number of births, number of children still living, and number of births, deaths and age at death in the previous year. The new categories instituted progressive approaches such as recording children of unwed mothers; and in education, recognizing experience level of older workers having little formal education but considerable practical expertise, including temporary employees in employment categories. Major difficulties were encountered in the data collection process: wide differences in education level among residents of the various geographical locations; registration of permanent residents using the household registration; registration of the transient population and people living on boats; determining employment classifications; and rendering the data suitable for data processing. However, the census was performed scientifically; census-takers interviewed each family and individual, and data was meticulously collected, calculated, and processed twice.     

Immigration,ethnicity, and housing—Success hierarchies in Israel

The study assesses housing hierarchies among immigrants in Israel by investigating three different but complementary paths: homeownership, crowding, and access to housing goods. Data from the most recent Israeli census in 1995 (the 20% version file) allows us to classify the immigrant population by 46 countries or areas of origin, each meeting the criterion of having a minimum of 100 sample cases. I controlled for several confounding factors: immigration characteristics, community of residence, demographic and human-capital variables, household composition, and housing characteristics. The results of multivariate analyses suggest that membership in approximately half of the immigrant groups has a statistically significant effect on homeownership. Representing very different origin groups from developing countries in Asia and Africa, as well as developed areas in Western Europe and America, most of the effects are negative relative to the reference group of Polish Jews. The pace of home acquisition is fastest among immigrants from several former Soviet republics and slowest among Syrian and Ethiopian Israelis. A better ethnic hierarchy was found for the other two characteristics, crowding and housing goods, with immigrants from Asia, Africa, and Eastern Europe being at a disadvantage. Many of these gaps close as immigrants purchase housing and gain tenure in Israel. The pace of advancement, however, is not uniform. I speculate that the differences in pace reflect structural characteristics, cultural background, and immigration processes, as well as absorption policy, which were not fully indexed by the census data. The discussion addresses broader implications of the findings for ethnic differences and social stratification in immigration countries.     

Dynamics of Spanish-Language Neighborhoods in Chicago and Atlanta: 1990–2000

This study examines and compares how the spatial arrangements of Spanish speakers have changed over time in a traditional immigrant gateway, Chicago, and in an emerging immigrant gateway, Atlanta. Using the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census data, spatial autocorrelation analysis confirms that Spanish-language neighborhoods continue to be in the city and the suburbs of Chicago. Atlanta’s Spanish-language neighborhoods, on the other hand, are mainly located in the suburbs where major growth took place over the decade. However, Spanish-language neighborhoods in both the city and suburbs of Atlanta and Chicago share similar characteristics: higher percentages of residents who are foreign-born and limited English proficient, and households with low levels of income. While the model of spatial assimilation is still relevant to our understanding of residential patterns among contemporary immigrants and their descendants, the interpretation of findings, including those for new destinations such as Atlanta where large-scale immigration occurred after suburbanization, should place less emphasis on the central city/suburb distinction and suburban homogeneity. The growing diversity in language use among residents necessitates the provision of accessible social services and information.     

Natural disasters and local demographic change in the United States

Classic studies on local demographic consequences of natural disasters in the United States are now more than 30 years old, raising questions about how and to what extent relevant patterns have changed over intervening years, as the number and cost of recorded environmental hazards have increased. This study examines these questions at the county level for the nation as a whole, using recent census and hazards data in conjunction with statistical methods that account for spatial dependencies among neighboring counties. Results indicate a positive correlation between cumulative disaster impact during the 1990s and changes in local population and housing units; they also reveal patterns of increased socioeconomic polarization among local residents. These findings differ from earlier studies and put recent case studies in broader context, suggesting that current disaster recoveries contribute to the growth of larger and more unequal populations in environmentally hazardous places.     

Segregation Through the Lens of Housing Unit Transition: What Roles Do the Prior Residents, the Local Micro-Neighborhood, and the Broader Neighborhood Play?

This study focuses on segregation as it plays out at the micro-level of housing unit transition. Employing a unique sample that places housing units into micro-neighborhoods and census tracts, this study tests whether the characteristics of the previous residents of the unit, the local micro-neighborhood, or the broader tract best explain the race/ethnicity of the new residents in a housing unit. The results show that the racial/ethnic composition of the local micro-neighborhood has even stronger effects on the race/ethnicity of the new residents than does the racial/ethnic composition of the broader census tract. The results also reveal that even when the racial/ethnic composition of these two contexts are accounted for, the race/ethnicity of the prior residents has a very strong effect on the race/ethnicity of the new residents. I consider possible explanations for this household-level effect. One new theoretical explanation I put forward is that prospective residents use the race/ethnicity of the prior residents as a signal regarding the neighborhood??s appropriateness for them; I test and find that this hypothesized signaling effect is even stronger in certain micro-neighborhood, neighborhood, and county contexts.     

Can Public Housing Decrease Segregation? Lessons and Challenges From Non-European Immigration in France

Recent decades have seen a rapid increase in the share of non-European immigrants in public housing in Europe, which has led to concern regarding the rise of ghettos in large cities. Using French census data over three decades, we examine how this increase in public housing participation has affected segregation. While segregation levels have increased moderately, on average, the number of immigrant enclaves has grown. The growth of enclaves is being driven by the large increase in non-European immigrants in the census tracts where the largest housing projects are located, both in the housing projects and the surrounding nonpublic dwellings. As a result, contemporary differences in segregation levels across metropolitan areas are being shaped by the concentration of public housing within cities, in particular the share of non-European immigrants in large housing projects constructed before the 1980s. Nevertheless, the overall effect of public housing on segregation has been ambiguous. While large projects have increased segregation, the inflows of non-European immigrants into small projects have brought many immigrants into census tracts where they have previously been rare and, thus, diminished segregation levels.