基于天气预报模式和大涡模拟的台风风场多尺度耦合数值模拟

结合2015年第1509号超强台风"灿鸿"期间在杭州九堡大桥的现场实测数据,基于WRF(weather research and forecasting)和LES(大涡模拟)的台风多尺度耦合数值模拟方法,重现了台风"灿鸿"的中小尺度发展演化过程,并对九堡大桥周边台风风场进行多尺度精细化模拟;以多项式插值的方式解决疏网格向密网格的背景风场要素降尺度耦合问题;最后通过大涡模拟获得了九堡大桥周边地区30 min瞬态台风风场数据。模拟得到的瞬态风速结果与实测数据在统计意义上较为吻合,表明WRF-LES耦合系统能实现从气象中尺度到建筑小尺度的多尺度数值模拟,有效地获取一次台风过程中目标区域的瞬态台风风场。NSRFG(narrowband synthesis random flow generator)方法生成的入口脉动风速适用于局部台风风场的LES计算,模拟所得风速功率谱与实测结果在低频段基本一致。     

基于实测数据的台风边界层风速剖面特征研究

目前规范中对台风影响区建筑物的抗风设计采用类比非气旋风场的方式来进行,然而大量实测结果表明台风剖面与非气旋风场风剖面存在较大差异,风剖面的影响因素和变化规律目前仍不明确。为清晰地了解台风的剖面特征及其规律,基于多个台风的实测剖面数据,以下垫面类型、台风结构分区和风速大小三类控制指标对数据进行分类,对各个类别的风剖面数据进行对比分析。研究表明：台风剖面中的近地急流层与下垫面类型、台风结构分区和风速均有关,即A、B类场地、较大风速和台风后眼壁区更易出现近地急流层;台风风剖面的梯度风高度与下垫面类型和平均风速存在着一定关系,A、B类场地的梯度风高度由台风中心向外呈增大趋势,C类场地下的梯度风高度从台风中心向外呈先减小后增大趋势。     

我国东南沿海台风极值风速预测与区划图构建

中国沿海是全球受台风灾害最严重的区域之一,获取台风极值风速对指导沿海土木工程结构抗风设计、防灾减灾和风险评估至关重要,中国现有抗风设计体系未单独设定台风极值风荷载。文章提出基于地理加权回归的台风模拟方法,主要包括台风路径、强度和风场参数递推模型,基于日本气象局1951～2015年历史台风最佳路径数据,开了西北太平洋地区台风局部路径和全路径随机模拟,结合台风边界层三维风场模型,预测不同工程场地的极值风速,率先完整创建我国沿海区域台风极值风速区划图并讨论台风风灾空间分布特点;面向不同建筑结构设计需求,形成台风风灾曲线和极值风速剖面数据库,为沿海建筑结构抗台风设计提供极值风荷载输入条件,推进我国结构抗风理论体系从传统良态风向台风的跨越。     

实测风场风速风向耦合的三维非平稳特征研究

为了获取考虑风速风向耦合效应的实测风场非平稳特征,在获取三维脉动风速时程的过程中,采用EMD方法建立了三维脉动非平稳风速模型,并推导出了脉动风速时程表达式,进一步发展了风速时变标准差、时变湍流强度的概念。以高层建筑实测台风数据作为算例,并与平稳风速模型进行对比分析,验证了非平稳风速模型的准确性和优越性：不需要选取基本时距;时变的物理量能反映微观特征,更能反映风速的非平稳性。通过平稳度指数检验了数据分析过程的平稳性特征,结果表明：风速在频域内的平稳性指数随着频率的增大而逐渐增大;不考虑风向时,风速的平稳性指数大小是与风速的变化速率相关的;非平稳风速模型所计算的脉动风速平稳性较平稳性模型方法所分析结果有所改善。     

基于大数据和循环神经网络在静态监测设备故障的预测研究

本文开展了基于监测大数据和循环神经网络技术对静态监测设备的故障预测研究,并根据实时监测到的各种数据,找出在结构监测中的关键性能指标,以此作为本次研究的训练特征,并将其输入到建立的TensorFlow2的神经网络模型之中,根据神经网路模型所输出的数据来预测监测现场是否存在设备故障。     

结合台风全路径模拟的宁波地区台风极值风速估计

运用台风全路径模拟技术和极值理论统计方法对宁波地区台风极值风速进行精确估计.首先,基于CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集并采用Vickery经验回归模型进行了西北太平洋海域台风全路径模拟,生成了600年台风路径及强度数据,采用Yan Meng风场模型确定了影响宁波地区的台风风速序列.然后,使用weibull分布函数描...     

基于相似数据的人工神经网络短期风速预测模型

提出基于相似数据并结合小波分析的数据预处理模型,并运用基于反向传播(BP)神经网络风速预测模型预测风速。该方法从大量的历史数据样本中提取相似数据创建训练样本,采用小波分解将风速信号分解成低频趋势信号和高频随机信号,采用BP神经网络建模,合成得到风速预测数据。通过某风电场的实际风速数据验证结果表明,相似数据有效地提高了数据的相关度,小波分解使BP神经网络模型更好地拟合风速信号的低频和高频特性,提高了预测精度。     

我国东南沿海城市和近海海域的台风极值风速预测

台风灾害严重影响我国东南沿海地区,通过开展台风数值模拟和极值风速预测,可精细化评估我国东南沿海城市和近海海域的台风危险性。采用基于随机森林模型的全路径台风模拟方法,对西北太平洋台风开展数值模拟,利用历史台风观测数据验证了该方法的可靠性与适用性。结合三维空间参数化台风风场模型,估算9个我国东南沿海城市不同重现期下的台风极值风速,发现广义极值分布(Ⅲ型)能更好地描述台风极值风速统计特征。将各城市的台风设计风速估算结果与GB 50009—2012《建筑结构荷载规范》中的推荐值及已有研究进行了比较,验证了台风模拟结果的可靠性,并发现低纬度城市的台风设计风速尚未超过规范中的推荐值,而高纬度城市的台风设计风速则略高于规范中的推荐值。基于台风全路径模拟和极值风速估算结果完成了我国东南沿海地区台风设计风速的区划图绘制,直观地反映了我国台湾岛及台湾东部海域的台风危险性最大,浙江东部、福建南部至广东一带以及海南岛南部等地区也面临较大的台风风险。     

基于实测数据的沉降预测方法综述

介绍了静态和动态两种基于实测数据的沉降外推预测方法,阐述了各种方法的适用范围和优缺点,指出基于实测数据的沉降预测法是针对建筑实测所得的离散沉降值,用数学模型预测地基的最终沉降量,具有较好的适用性。     

深基坑工程位移预测的遗传神经网络耦合方法

岩土结构的位移都具有非线性动力学演化特征,针对目前采用的神经网络预测方法中存在的问题,用神经网络遗传算法耦合预测模型取代了传统的分析方法。详细介绍了建模过程,并用C语言加以实现,最后用实例论证了该方法用于基坑工程变形预测的可靠性和实用性。     

Profiles of mean wind speeds and vertical turbulence intensities measured at seashore and two inland sites using Doppler sodars

The authors’ group has been conducting full-scale measurements of wind velocities with Doppler sodars. It is very important to accurately assess the profiles of mean wind speeds and turbulence intensities in relation to terrain roughness. In this study, the profiles were evaluated for all data measured over a long period at a seashore and two inland sites. It is confirmed that for strong winds the profiles can be approximated by a single power law at altitudes between 50 and 340 m. The power law exponents of the mean wind speed profiles are approximately 0.1 for wind from the sea and 0.2-0.3 for wind blown over land. Those of the turbulence intensity profiles are approximately 0 and −0.2 to 0.4, respectively.     

Prediction of typhoon design wind speed with cholesky decomposition method

Typhoon simulation method that integrates typhoon wind field model, probability distributions of typhoon key parameters, and Monte Carlo simulation method has long been used to predict typhoon design wind speeds of structures. In the research, the empirical typhoon wind field model with a novel parameter B model of Holland's radial pressure profile is first introduced and validated with typhoon Hagupit's simulation. The results show that relatively good typhoons can be simulated with this empirical typhoon wind field model. Then, the cholesky decomposition method used in typhoon simulation method is proposed that allows achieving all correlated typhoon key parameters simultaneously. Finally, the cholesky decomposition method is used to generating typhoon key parameters in Hong Kong, and typhoon design wind speeds for different return periods are predicted with typhoon simulation method. In addition, typhoon design wind speeds derived from historical typhoon key parameters and typhoon key parameters generated without considering cholesky decomposition method are also predicted, respectively. The predicted typhoon design wind speeds are compared and the results demonstrate that the cholesky decomposition method should be incorporated into typhoon simulation method.     

Extreme value modelling of hurricane wind speeds

Estimating return levels of extreme wind speeds due to hurricanes presents both practical and analytical difficulties. The practical difficulty of collecting data has been resolved in the past by modelling simulated data--we adopt such an approach in this paper also. The analytical difficulties concern the problem of estimating the probabilities of events which are more extreme than those simulated. We follow common practice here also, using standard extreme value models to describe extreme tail behaviour. We differ from previous analyses of hurricane data in two respects. First, we use a model parameterisation which enables models fitted at different thresholds or at different sites to be easily compared. Second, we use maximum likelihood as the method of inference. This is found to produce results similar to those of previous studies, but enables the development of a spatial analysis which exploits similarities in the behaviour of the data from one site to another in order to improve the precision of estimation, and facilitates prediction at coastline locations other than those with simulated data.     

Ten-minute wind speeds and gusts in the Czech Republic

Statistical estimates of the ten-minute wind velocity mean values and estimates of the gust wind maxima throughout the Czech Republic are listed in this paper. Some of the gust estimates are significantly higher than equivalent gusts determined by means of the peak velocity pressure model in ENV 1991-2-4 (or in EN 1991-1-4) from the ten-minute mean velocity estimates. The objective was to inquire into the causes behind this difference and to propose the way to be taken to settle the contradiction.     

Some recent results on probabilistic models of extreme wind speeds

This paper deals with the determination of the relationship between probability of occurrence and wind speed at a given site, on the basis of maximum annual wind speed series.Previous contributions in the area are reviewed. The arguments in favour of each of the extreme-value distributions in use, as well as methods of parameter and confidence limit estimation are discussed.The difficulties inherent in the approach are pointed out and the effects of several factors, such as type of storm, wind averaging time and ground surface roughness are discussed in detail. Finally, a two-parameter model for mixed populations of winds due to extratropical and thunderstorms is suggested.     

基于北京中心城区实测的城市边界层风场特性

为了对城市边界层的特殊风场特性进行研究,利用位于北京中心城区325 m气象观测塔,在9个不同高度布置超声风速仪,得到了2013-2017年间风速、温度连续观测的实测数据.统计分析表明:北京城区以良态风为主,盛行北风、西北风及南风,但强风主要来自西北向;除昼夜温度变化外,城市边界层的热量交换很大程度受到下垫面逆辐射影响....     

Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement

The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy.     

Analysis of height variations of sodar-derived wind speeds in Northern Spain

The Weibull distribution has been widely used in wind speed analysis. Ten-min averages from a sodar placed in an extensive plateau in the North of Spain were considered. The measuring period was April 2001. Daily wind speed evolution has been analysed and a sharp contrast between day and night has been obtained. Contrasting behaviour between surface and more distant levels has also been seen. The strong convection during the day and the stratification stability during the night were responsible for this well-defined pattern. Four wind speed intervals for a typical wind turbine were considered. Low wind speeds showed no directional character, although moderate winds came from two prevailing directions due to the synoptic weather systems affecting the Iberian Peninsula with a 5-6 day period. Ground influence was present only at lowest levels. As a result, the behaviour of wind speed derived from surface data must be avoided. Although moderate winds were frequent, a persistence analysis revealed the low number of lasting runs. The wind speed power law was also analysed and the usual one-seventh expression was proved not to be valid. The Weibull parameters were calculated by four methods: linear regression by cumulative frequency, moments, maximum likelihood and quartiles. The equivalence was in general clear. Finally, height analysis revealed that the shape parameter was around two whereas major differences were reached for the scale factor. A successful fit with the height was proved for the latter. Finally, a well-defined daily evolution was obtained, indicating that selection of a site for energy generation purposes must be preceded by a temporal study based on direct height measurements.