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1.
This article analyzes possible terrorist attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach using a radiological dispersal device (RDD, also known as a \"dirty bomb\") to shut down port operations and cause substantial economic and psychological impacts. The analysis is an exploratory investigation of a combination of several risk analysis tools, including scenario generation and pruning, project risk analysis, direct consequence modeling, and indirect economic impact assessment. We examined 36 attack scenarios and reduced them to two plausible or likely scenarios using qualitative judgments. For these two scenarios, we conducted a project risk analysis to understand the tasks terrorists need to perform to carry out the attacks and to determine the likelihood of the project's success. The consequences of a successful attack are described in terms of a radiological plume model and resulting human health and economic impacts. Initial findings suggest that the chances of a successful dirty bomb attack are about 10-40% and that high radiological doses are confined to a relatively small area, limiting health effects to tens or at most hundreds of latent cancers, even with a major release. However, the economic consequences from a shutdown of the harbors due to the contamination could result in significant losses in the tens of billions of dollars, including the decontamination costs and the indirect economic impacts due to the port shutdown. The implications for countering a dirty bomb attack, including the protection of the radiological sources and intercepting an ongoing dirty bomb attack are discussed. 相似文献
2.
This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers. 相似文献
3.
Alessandro Tofani 《Risk analysis》2011,31(4):566-577
Radiation exposure devices (REDs) are radiological weapons obtained by concealing a strong gamma‐emitting source in a place frequented by public to cause radiation injuries following the absorption of elevated radiation doses. The present work aims to assess the radiological impact of an RED by simulating its effects in both dynamical and static conditions of the covertly exposed population, with individual position and motion obtained through a Monte Carlo approach. The results indicate that in small enclosures the motion of people amplify the effects of radiation exposure with respect to the static case because it turns out in a larger number of individuals receiving doses above the threshold for the onset of deterministic effects. This behavior is mitigated in medium and large enclosures due to dose spreading over trajectories moving far away from the critical region close to the RED. The scaling laws obtained with a simple circular geometry were successfully applied to a more complex geometry like that of a stadium. The potentially large number of victims and the possibility to reiterate the attack raise the question of early detection. This can be achieved either by radiation survey or by indirectly inferring the presence of a strong radioactive source following the triage of patients with radiation sickness symptoms collected by the same hospital. In the former case careful design and operation of aerial or in situ monitoring is needed, while in the latter specific training should be given to healthcare personnel aimed to improve their discrimination and cooperation capabilities. 相似文献
4.
A quantitative criterion for ranking the different scenarios of nuclear and radiological terrorism has been developed. The aim of the model is not to predict terroristic events but only to indicate which scenario has the higher utility from the point of view of a terroristic organization in terms of balance between factors favoring and discouraging the attack, respectively. All these factors were quantified according to a scoring system that takes into account the logarithmic relationship between perceptions and stimuli. The criterion was applied to several scenarios, each of which was modeled in a simple but not trivial way in order to estimate the expected damage in terms of probable life losses from both radiative and nonradiative effects. The outcome from the ranking method indicates that the attractive scenario appears to be the detonation of a low yield improvised nuclear device in the metropolitan area of a major city. 相似文献
5.
J. A. Giesecke W. J. Burns A. Barrett E. Bayrak A. Rose P. Slovic M. Suher 《Risk analysis》2012,32(4):583-600
We investigate the regional economic consequences of a hypothetical catastrophic event—attack via radiological dispersal device (RDD)—centered on the downtown Los Angeles area. We distinguish two routes via which such an event might affect regional economic activity: (i) reduction in effective resource supply (the resource loss effect) and (ii) shifts in the perceptions of economic agents (the behavioral effect). The resource loss effect relates to the physical destructiveness of the event, while the behavioral effect relates to changes in fear and risk perception. Both affect the size of the regional economy. RDD detonation causes little capital damage and few casualties, but generates substantial short‐run resource loss via business interruption. Changes in fear and risk perception increase the supply cost of resources to the affected region, while simultaneously reducing demand for goods produced in the region. We use results from a nationwide survey, tailored to our RDD scenario, to inform our model values for behavioral effects. Survey results, supplemented by findings from previous research on stigmatized asset values, suggest that in the region affected by the RDD, households may require higher wages, investors may require higher returns, and customers may require price discounts. We show that because behavioral effects may have lingering long‐term deleterious impacts on both the supply‐cost of resources to a region and willingness to pay for regional output, they can generate changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) much greater than those generated by resource loss effects. Implications for policies that have the potential to mitigate these effects are discussed. 相似文献
6.
This article provides a methodology for the economic analysis of the potential consequences of a simulated anthrax terrorism attack on real estate within the Seattle metropolitan area. We estimate spatially disaggregated impacts on median sales price of residential housing within the Seattle metro area following an attack on the central business district (CBD). Using a combination of longitudinal panel regression and GIS analysis, we find that the median sales price in the CBD could decline by as much as $280,000, and by nearly $100,000 in nearby communities. These results indicate that total residential property values could decrease by over $50 billion for Seattle, or a 33% overall decline. We combine these estimates with HUD's 2009 American Housing Survey (AHS) to further predict 70,000 foreclosures in Seattle spatial zones following the terrorism event. 相似文献
7.
本文构建动态CGE模型,以化石和可再生能源补贴政策为对象,模拟不同类型能源补贴政策改革对经济发展、资源效率、碳排放及雾霾治理的差异性影响。研究表明:总体而言,能源补贴政策对宏观经济具有积极的促进作用,但在一定程度上会提高能源消费强度;不同类型的能源补贴政策方案影响的差异性较大,化石能源在促进经济增长的同时,对环境改善和碳排放目标实现产生不利影响,特别是煤炭补贴能有效降低能源使用成本,极大促进产业总产出和经济增长,但会不利于环境改善,对可再生能源补贴有利于能源利用效率提高和人均资源盈余改善,降低污染物和雾霾排放增速;因此,必须注重不同类型能源补贴政策协调性和差异性,短期内以化石能源补贴为主,长期而言,应逐步加大可再生能源补贴,更加有利于低碳转型和环境改善。 相似文献
8.
Mark D. Abkowitz 《Risk analysis》2011,31(7):1133-1140
Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well‐being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all‐hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man‐made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event‐based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. 相似文献
9.
There is a paucity of research examining public response to the cumulative effects of multiple related extreme events over time. We investigated the separate and combined effects of frequency and trajectory of terrorist attacks. A scenario simulation of a series of gas station bombings in Southern California was developed to evaluate respondents' affect, risk perception, and intended avoidance behavior using a 3 (frequency; low vs. medium vs. high) by 3 (trajectory; increasing vs. constant vs. decreasing) factorial design. For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three‐week period. A total of 275 respondents were included in the analysis. Results from analysis of covariances (ANCOVAs) indicate that trajectory of the sequential attacks (increasing or decreasing in frequency) predicts negative affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior. In contrast, frequency predicts neither negative affect, positive affect, risk perception, nor intended avoidance behavior. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) further indicate that the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention is mediated by risk perception and the effect of trajectory on risk perception is partially mediated by negative affect. In addition, both ANCOVAs and SEM model results suggest that (1) females experience less positive affect and perceive more risk than males, (2) respondents with higher income perceive more risk, and (3) younger respondents are more likely to modify their behavior to avoid the risk of future attacks. 相似文献
10.
Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens Mark A. Pallansch Jong‐Hoon Kim Cara C. Burns Olen M. Kew M. Steven Oberste Ousmane M. Diop Steven G.F. Wassilak Stephen L. Cochi Kimberly M. Thompson 《Risk analysis》2013,33(4):680-702
The live, attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) provides a powerful tool for controlling and stopping the transmission of wild polioviruses (WPVs), although the risks of vaccine‐associated paralytic polio (VAPP) and circulating vaccine‐derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks exist as long as OPV remains in use. Understanding the dynamics of cVDPV emergence and outbreaks as a function of population immunity and other risk factors may help to improve risk management and the development of strategies to respond to possible outbreaks. We performed a comprehensive review of the literature related to the process of OPV evolution and information available from actual experiences with cVDPV outbreaks. Only a relatively small fraction of poliovirus infections cause symptoms, which makes direct observation of the trajectory of OPV evolution within a population impractical and leads to significant uncertainty. Despite a large global surveillance system, the existing genetic sequence data largely provide information about transmitted virulent polioviruses that caused acute flaccid paralysis, and essentially no data track the changes that occur in OPV sequences as the viruses transmit largely asymptomatically through real populations with suboptimal immunity. We updated estimates of cVDPV risks based on actual experiences and identified the many limitations in the existing data on poliovirus transmission and immunity and OPV virus evolution that complicate modeling. Modelers should explore the space of potential model formulations and inputs consistent with the available evidence and future studies should seek to improve our understanding of the OPV virus evolution process to provide better information for policymakers working to manage cVDPV risks. 相似文献
11.
Jesús Fernndez‐Villaverde Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez Manuel S. Santos 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2006,74(1):93-119
This paper studies the econometrics of computed dynamic models. Since these models generally lack a closed‐form solution, their policy functions are approximated by numerical methods. Hence, the researcher can only evaluate an approximated likelihood associated with the approximated policy function rather than the exact likelihood implied by the exact policy function. What are the consequences for inference of the use of approximated likelihoods? First, we find conditions under which, as the approximated policy function converges to the exact policy, the approximated likelihood also converges to the exact likelihood. Second, we show that second order approximation errors in the policy function, which almost always are ignored by researchers, have first order effects on the likelihood function. Third, we discuss convergence of Bayesian and classical estimates. Finally, we propose to use a likelihood ratio test as a diagnostic device for problems derived from the use of approximated likelihoods. 相似文献
12.
Adam Rose Misak Avetisyan Heather Rosoff William J. Burns Paul Slovic Oswin Chan 《Risk analysis》2017,37(7):1403-1418
U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism. 相似文献
13.
在网络社会,无论是网络推手炒作谣言,还是官方微博积极应对,都可视作舆论领袖在舆情演化过程中发挥传播影响力。本文将舆情演化过程分为两个阶段,在两个阶段分别应用不同的仿真模型对不同作用舆论领袖的传播影响力进行分析。第一个阶段是舆情危机爆发阶段,即舆情危机\"从无到有\",分析网络推手在该阶段的扩散影响力,以SIR经典传染病模型为基础,构建包含有网络推手作用的扩散影响力模型;第二个阶段是舆情危机平息阶段,即舆情危机\"从有到无\",分析官方微博在该阶段的证伪影响力,以Lotka-Volterra竞争关系模型为基础,研究官方微博如何发挥证伪影响力与网络推手进行博弈。结合具体舆情实例对阶段式模型进行验证分析,并提出如何根据舆论领袖不同传播作用应对舆情危机相关政策建议,以期帮助决策者打击网络谣言、平息舆情危机。 相似文献
14.
Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens Mark A. Pallansch Konstantin M. Chumakov Neal A. Halsey Tapani Hovi Philip D. Minor John F. Modlin Peter A. Patriarca Roland W. Sutter Peter F. Wright Steven G. F. Wassilak Stephen L. Cochi Jong‐Hoon Kim Kimberly M. Thompson 《Risk analysis》2013,33(4):544-605
Successfully managing risks to achieve wild polioviruses (WPVs) eradication and address the complexities of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to stop all cases of paralytic poliomyelitis depends strongly on our collective understanding of poliovirus immunity and transmission. With increased shifting from OPV to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), numerous risk management choices motivate the need to understand the tradeoffs and uncertainties and to develop models to help inform decisions. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted a meeting of international experts in April 2010 to review the available literature relevant to poliovirus immunity and transmission. This expert review evaluates 66 OPV challenge studies and other evidence to support the development of quantitative models of poliovirus transmission and potential outbreaks. This review focuses on characterization of immunity as a function of exposure history in terms of susceptibility to excretion, duration of excretion, and concentration of excreted virus. We also discuss the evidence of waning of host immunity to poliovirus transmission, the relationship between the concentration of poliovirus excreted and infectiousness, the importance of different transmission routes, and the differences in transmissibility between OPV and WPV. We discuss the limitations of the available evidence for use in polio risk models, and conclude that despite the relatively large number of studies on immunity, very limited data exist to directly support quantification of model inputs related to transmission. Given the limitations in the evidence, we identify the need for expert input to derive quantitative model inputs from the existing data. 相似文献
15.
Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens Mark A. Pallansch Konstantin M. Chumakov Neal A. Halsey Tapani Hovi Philip D. Minor John F. Modlin Peter A. Patriarca Roland W. Sutter Peter F. Wright Steven G.F. Wassilak Stephen L. Cochi Jong‐Hoon Kim Kimberly M. Thompson 《Risk analysis》2013,33(4):606-646
With the intensifying global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses, policymakers face complex decisions related to achieving eradication and managing posteradication risks. These decisions and the expanding use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) trigger renewed interest in poliovirus immunity, particularly the role of mucosal immunity in the transmission of polioviruses. Sustained high population immunity to poliovirus transmission represents a key prerequisite to eradication, but poliovirus immunity and transmission remain poorly understood despite decades of studies. In April 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened an international group of experts on poliovirus immunology and virology to review the literature relevant for modeling poliovirus transmission, develop a consensus about related uncertainties, and identify research needs. This article synthesizes the quantitative assessments and research needs identified during the process. Limitations in the evidence from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) challenge studies and other relevant data led to differences in expert assessments, indicating the need for additional data, particularly in several priority areas for research: (1) the ability of IPV‐induced immunity to prevent or reduce excretion and affect transmission, (2) the impact of waning immunity on the probability and extent of poliovirus excretion, (3) the relationship between the concentration of poliovirus excreted and infectiousness to others in different settings, and (4) the relative role of fecal‐oral versus oropharyngeal transmission. This assessment of current knowledge supports the immediate conduct of additional studies to address the gaps. 相似文献
16.
《Risk analysis》2018,38(8):1701-1717
Due to security, access, and programmatic challenges in areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries continue to sustain indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission and threaten the success of global polio eradication and oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. We fitted an existing differential‐equation‐based poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to Pakistan and Afghanistan using four subpopulations to characterize the well‐vaccinated and undervaccinated subpopulations in each country. We explored retrospective and prospective scenarios for using inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization or supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). The undervaccinated subpopulations sustain the circulation of serotype 1 WPV and serotype 2 circulating vaccine‐derived poliovirus. We find a moderate impact of past IPV use on polio incidence and population immunity to transmission mainly due to (1) the boosting effect of IPV for individuals with preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection and (2) the effect of IPV‐only on oropharyngeal transmission for individuals without preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection. Future IPV use may similarly yield moderate benefits, particularly if access to undervaccinated subpopulations dramatically improves. However, OPV provides a much greater impact on transmission and the incremental benefit of IPV in addition to OPV remains limited. This study suggests that despite the moderate effect of using IPV in SIAs, using OPV in SIAs remains the most effective means to stop transmission, while limited IPV resources should prioritize IPV use in routine immunization. 相似文献
17.
Only Pakistan and Afghanistan reported any polio cases caused by serotype 1 wild polioviruses (WPV1s) in 2017. With the dwindling cases in both countries and pressure to finish eradication with the least possible resources, a danger exists of inappropriate prioritization of efforts between the two countries and insufficient investment in the two countries to finish the job. We used an existing differential‐equation‐based poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus (OPV) evolution model to simulate a proactive strategy to stop transmission, and different hypothetical reactive strategies that adapt the quality of supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) in response to observed polio cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan. To account for the delay in perception and adaptation, we related the coverage of the SIAs in high‐risk, undervaccinated subpopulations to the perceived (i.e., smoothed) polio incidence. Continuation of the current frequency and quality of SIAs remains insufficient to eradicate WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Proactive strategies that significantly improve and sustain SIA quality lead to WPV1 eradication and the prevention of circulating vaccine‐derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks. Reactive vaccination efforts that adapt moderately quickly and independently to changes in polio incidence in each country may succeed in WPV1 interruption after several cycles of outbreaks, or may interrupt WPV1 transmission in one country but subsequently import WPV1 from the other country or enable the emergence of cVDPV outbreaks. Reactive vaccination efforts that adapt independently and either more rapidly or more slowly to changes in polio incidence in each country may similarly fail to interrupt WPV1 transmission and result in oscillations of the incidence. Reactive strategies that divert resources to the country of highest priority may lead to alternating large outbreaks. Achieving WPV1 eradication and subsequent successful OPV cessation in Pakistan and Afghanistan requires proactive and sustained efforts to improve vaccination intensity in under‐vaccinated subpopulations while maintaining high population immunity elsewhere. 相似文献
18.
Ralph L. Keeney 《Risk analysis》2007,27(3):585-596
Decisions are made to achieve objectives. A qualitative list of the objectives for a decision is the foundation for a value model that unambiguously represents objectives in a quantitative manner. The objectives guide thinking and the value model provides a basis for analyzing alternatives to best meet the desired objectives. This article illustrates the usefulness of clearly identifying objectives and developing value models to support anti-terrorism analysis. It outlines procedures to develop value models for the Department of Homeland Security and for terrorist organizations. The later is useful to both design anti-terrorism alternatives and suggest possible terrorist priorities and actions. An example that develops a terrorist value model for the theft and misuse of plutonium is presented. Several uses of value models for anti-terrorist activities are discussed and suggestions for developing such value models are outlined. 相似文献
19.
十二五将节能环保作为一大关键主题, 中国将更多地使用市场经济手段治理环境, 与命令-控制手段互为补充。绿色信贷政策是其中重要的金融政策。本文从绿色信贷政策中对\"双高\"行业实施惩罚性高利率这一市场化的利率政策入手, 利用中国2007年SAM表, 部分行业主要上市企业年报, 2006年及2007年资金流量表及金融年鉴数据, 建立一个加入金融系统的CGE(可计算一般均衡)模型, 刻画绿色信贷政策的传导路径, 定量测算政策在不同时期的系统性影响。结果发现绿色信贷政策能够较为有效地抑制目标行业的投资行为, 并在短期、中期内能减少造纸业、化工业产出。在长期, 目标行业投资、产出回升, 抵消绿色信贷对抑制目标行业产出的效果。 相似文献
20.
在进行宏观经济增长目标的制定和调控过程中,对潜在经济增长率的测算是十分有意义的。Leontief用动态投入产出模型所对应的特征方程的最大特征值的倒数来表征潜在经济增长率[1].本文研究了相应的最大特征值的稳定性,并建立了一个简洁的计算潜在经济增长率的模型。 相似文献
