21世纪中叶天津沿海地区极端高水位趋势预测

据统计,天津沿海地区50年一遇的风暴潮极端增水水位为 4.092m,开展控沉工作后的地面下沉速率约为15mm/a,目前沿岸海挡顶面高程一般为 4.332m.参考孟加拉湾、伦敦、汉堡等沿海地区在2050年海平面上升(取较今高约0.2m的推测值)背景下的极端增水趋势预测(增加0.5m),推测天津沿海地区2050年的极端高水位将增加到 4.792m(4.092m 0.2m 0.5m),现有海挡顶面高程将下沉至 3.687m(以2007年为起算年份).2050年极端高水位将比届时的海挡顶面高1.105m,由此将加重风暴潮水漫溢致灾的危险.如果再考虑波浪叠加、河口效应、极端海面上升等不确定因素的影响,危险将更加严重.     

天津市及其沿海地区地表高程变化现状及趋势

近百年来不同时期的地形图、有关资料的对比研究，揭示天津市及沿海地区的地表高程在20世纪近百年间已发生了明显变化。基于影响沿海地区地表形态的基本参数——保有高程、地面下沉、海面上升和垂直加积速率——所做的预测显示。2030年时天津及沿海地区的地表高程将继续损失，在相伴随的海面上升的共同作用下，预测沼泽化的影响范围将逼近天津市区。     

Vulnerability of population and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay due to coastal flooding in sea-level rise conditions

Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.     

上海地区未来海平面上升及产生的可能影响

未来海平面变化,特别是由于地面沉降等引起的相对海平面上升,将对沿海地区的地质环境及人类的生存发展产生极大的影响,通过对影响上海地区海平面变化主要因素的概括,对未来的相对海平面变化作出了预测,对由海平面上升引起的环境效应作了阐述,提出了相应的防治对策。强调了控制上海地区的地面沉降,以减轻海平面上升所造成的危害,具有特殊而重要的意义。     

Vulnerability of Hampton Roads,Virginia to Storm-Surge Flooding and Sea-Level Rise

Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise. The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region. In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal and near-coastal zones.     

上海复合极端风暴洪水淹没模拟

河口三角洲和沿海城市面临着台风、暴雨、高潮位和上游下泄洪水叠加的“四碰头”复合极端风暴洪水的严重威胁。构建了大气-海洋-陆地相耦合的一体化数值模拟系统,实现了上海市“风”“暴”“潮”“洪”多灾种复合情景的极端洪涝淹没模拟,并验证了耦合方法的有效性,为复合风暴洪水的一体化模拟提供了一套可行的数值模拟方法。在9711台风影响下,模拟了1998年堤防升级改造后淹没面积(水深>0.2m)比改造前减少了62%,表明沿海沿江堤防设施建设在上海市防台防汛中起着关键性的作用。复合极端风暴洪水的有效模拟可为财产保险和未来市政规划提供参考。     

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

Understanding a coastal flood event: the 10th March 2008 storm surge event in the Solent, UK

Extreme sea-level events (e.g. caused by storm surges) can cause coastal flooding, and considerable disruption and damage. To understand the impacts or hazards expected by different sea levels, waves and defence failures, it is useful to monitor and analyse coastal flood events, including generating numerical simulations of floodplain inundation. Ideally, any such modelling should be calibrated and validated using information recorded during real events, which can also add plausibility to synthetic flood event simulations. However, such data are rarely compiled for coastal floods. This paper demonstrates the capture of such a flood event dataset, and its integration with defence and floodplain modelling to reconstruct, archive and better understand the regional impacts of the event. The case-study event comprised a significant storm surge, high tide and waves in the English Channel on 10 March 2008, which resulted in flooding in at least 37 distinct areas across the Solent, UK (mainly due to overflow and outflanking of defences). The land area flooded may have exceeded 7 km², with the breaching of a shingle barrier at Selsey contributing to up to 90 % of this area. Whilst sea floods are common in the Solent, this is the first regional dataset on flood extent. The compilation of data for the validation of coastal inundation modelling is discussed, and the implications for the analysis of future coastal flooding threats to population, business and infrastructure in the region.     

Response scenarios for the deltaic plain of the Rhône in the face of an acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise with special attention to<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salicornia</Emphasis>-type environments

One of the most critical problems facing many deltaic wetlands is a high rate of relative sea-level rise due to a combination of eustatic sea-level rise and local subsidence. Within the Rhône delta, the main source of mineral input to soil formation is from the river, due to the low tidal range and the presence of a continuous sea wall. We carried out field and modeling studies to assess the present environmental status and future conditions of the more stressed sites, i.e.,Salicornia-type marshes with a shallow, hypersaline groundwater. The impacts of management practices are considered by comparing impounded areas with riverine areas connected to the Rhône River. Analysis of vegetation transects showed differences between mean soil elevation ofArthrocnemum fruticosum (+31.2 cm),Arthrocnemum glaucum (+26.5 cm), bare soil (+16.2 cm), and permanently flooded soil (?12.4 cm). Aboveground and belowground production showed that root:shoot ratio forA. fruticosum andA. glaucum was 2.9 and 1.1, respectively, indicating more stressful environmental conditions forA. glaucum with a higher soil salinity and lack of soil drainage. The annual leaf litter production rate of the two species is 30 times higher than annual stem litter production, but with a higher long-term decomposition rate associated with leaves. We developed a wetland elevation model designed to predict the effect of increasing rates of sea-level rise on wetland elevation andSalicornia production. The model takes into account feedback mechanisms between soil elevation and river mineral input, and primary production. In marshes still connected to the river, mineral input decreased quickly when elevation was over 21 cm. Under current sea-level rise conditions, the annual amount of riverine mineral input needed to maintain the elevation of the study marshes is between 3,000 and 5,000 g m^?2 yr^?1. Simulations showed that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change best estimate sea-level rise scenario, a mineral input of 6,040 g m^?2 yr^?1 is needed to maintain marsh elevation. The medium term response capacity of the Rhône deltaic plain with rising sea level depends mainly on the possibility of supplying sediment from the river to the delta, even though the Rhône Delta front is wave dominated. Within coastal impounded marshes, isolated from the river, the sediment supply is very low (10 to 50 g m^?2 yr^?1), and an increase of sea-level rise would increase the flooding duration and dramatically reduce vegetation biomass. New wetland management options involving river input are discussed for a long-term sustainability of low coastal Mediterranean wetlands.     

Classifying inundation limits in SE coast of India: application of GIS

A study on the possible inundation limit in SE coast of India was carried out using various physical, geological and satellite imageries. The coastal inundation hazard map was prepared for this particular region as it was affected by many cyclones, flooding, storm surge and tsunami waves during the last six decades. The results were generated using various satellite data (IRS-P6 LISS3; LANDSAT ETM; LANDSAT-5 ETM; LANDSAT MSS) and digital elevation models (ASTER GLOBAL DEM), and a coastal vulnerability index was generated for the entire coastal stretch of Nagapattinam region in SE coast of India. The coastal area which will be submerged totally due to a 1–5 m rise in water level due to any major natural disaster (tsunami or cyclone) indicates that 56–320 km² will be submerged in this particular region. The results suggest that nearly 7 towns and 69 villages with 667,477 people will be affected and indicate that proper planning needs to be done for future development.     

Coastal megacities and climate change

Rapid urbanization is projected to produce 20 coastal megacities (population exceeding 8 million) by 2010. This is mainly a developing world phenomenon: in 1990, there were seven coastal megacities in Asia (excluding those in Japan) and two in South America, rising by 2010 to 12 in Asia (including Istanbul), three in South America and one in Africa.All coastal locations, including megacities, are at risk to the impacts of accelerated global sea-level rise and other coastal implications of climate change, such as changing storm frequency. Further, many of the coastal megacities are built on geologically young sedimentary strata that are prone to subsidence given excessive groundwater withdrawal. At least eight of the projected 20 coastal megacities have experienced a local orrelative rise in sea level which often greatly exceeds any likely global sea-level rise scenario for the next century.The implications of climate change for each coastal megacity vary significantly, so each city requires independent assessment. In contrast to historical precedent, a proactive perspective towards coastal hazards and changing levels of risk with time is recommended. Low-cost measures to maintain or increase future flexibility of response to climate change need to be identified and implemented as part of an integrated approach to coastal management.     

Managed Retreat of Saline Coastal Wetlands: Challenges and Opportunities Identified from the Hunter River Estuary,Australia

We analyse the potential impacts of sea-level rise on the management of saline coastal wetlands in the Hunter River estuary, NSW, Australia. We model two management options: leaving all floodgates open, facilitating retreat of mangrove and saltmarsh into low-lying coastal lands; and leaving floodgates closed. For both management options we modelled the potential extent of saline coastal wetland to 2100 under a low sea-level rise scenario (based on 5 % minima of SRES B1 emissions scenario) and a high sea-level rise scenario (based on 95 % maxima of SRES A1FI emissions scenario). In both instances we quantified the carbon burial benefits associated with those actions. Using a dynamic elevation model, which factored in the accretion and vertical elevation responses of mangrove and saltmarsh to rising sea levels, we projected the distribution of saline coastal wetlands, and estimated the volume of sediment and carbon burial across the estuary under each scenario. We found that the management of floodgates is the primary determinant of potential saline coastal wetland extent to 2100, with only 33 % of the potential wetland area remaining under the high sea-level rise scenario, with floodgates closed, and with a 127 % expansion of potential wetland extent with floodgates open and levees breached. Carbon burial was an additional benefit of accommodating landward retreat of wetlands, with an additional 280,000 tonnes of carbon buried under the high sea-level rise scenario with floodgates open (775,075 tonnes with floodgates open and 490,280 tonnes with floodgates closed). Nearly all of the Hunter Wetlands National Park, a Ramsar wetland, will be lost under the high sea-level rise scenario, while there is potential for expansion of the wetland area by 35 % under the low sea-level rise scenario, regardless of floodgate management. We recommend that National Parks, Reserves, Ramsar sites and other static conservation mechanisms employed to protect significant coastal wetlands must begin to employ dynamic buffers to accommodate sea-level rise change impacts, which will likely require land purchase or other agreements with private landholders. The costs of facilitating adaptation may be offset by carbon sequestration gains.     

Rising water levels and the future of southeastern Louisiana swamp forests

An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50–100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.     

Alexandria-Nile Delta coast,Egypt: update and future projection of relative sea-level rise

Previous studies have indicated that the Nile River deltaic plain is vulnerable to a number of aspects, including beach erosion, inundation, and relatively high rates of land subsidence. This issue motivates an update and analysis of new tide-gauge records, from which relative sea-level changes can be obtained. Estimated rates from five tide gauges are variable in terms of magnitude and temporal trend of rising sea level. Analysis of historical records obtained from tide gauges at Alexandria, Rosetta, Burullus, Damietta, and Port Said show a continuous rise in mean sea level fluctuating between 1.8 and 4.9 mm/year; the smaller rate occurs at the Alexandria harbor, while the higher one at the Rosetta promontory. These uneven spatial and temporal trends of the estimated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) are interpreted with reference to local geological factors. In particular, Holocene sediment thickness, subsidence rate and tectonism are correlated with the estimated rates of relative sea-level change. From the relatively weak correlation between them, we presume that tectonic setting and earthquakes, both recent and historical ones, contribute more to accelerated RSLR than that of dewatering and compression/dewatering of Holocene mud underlying the Nile Delta plain. As a result, large areas of the coastal plain have been subsided, but some sectors have been uplifted in response to tectonic activities of thick underlying older strata. Projection of averaged sea-level rise trend reveals that not all the coastal plain of the Nile Delta and Alexandria is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise at the same level due to wide variability of the land topography, that includes low-lying areas, high-elevated coastal ridges and sand dunes, accretionary beaches, and artificially protective structures. Interaction of all aspects (tectonic regime, topography, geomorphology, erosion rate, and RSLR rate) permitted to define risk areas much vulnerable to impacts of sea incursion due to accelerated sea-level rise.     

Little Ice Age subsidence and post Little Ice Age uplift at Juneau, Alaska, inferred from dendrochronology and geomorphology

Application of dendrochronology and geomorphology to a recently emerged coastal area near Juneau, Alaska, has documented a Little Ice Age (LIA) sea-level transgression to 6.2 m above current sea level. The rise in relative sea level is attributed to regional subsidence and appears to have stabilized by the mid 16th century, based on a sea-cliff eroded into late-Pleistocene glaciomarine sediments. Land began emerging between A.D. 1770 and 1790, coincident with retreat of regional glaciers from their LIA maximums. This emergence has continued since then, paralleling regional glacier retreat. Total Juneau uplift since the late 18th century is estimated to be 3.2 m. The rate of downward colonization of newly emergent coastline by Sitka spruce during the 20th century closely parallels the rate of sea-level fall documented by analysis of local tide-gauge records (1.3 cm/yr). Regional and Glacier Bay LIA loading and unloading are inferred to be the primary mechanisms driving subsidence and uplift in the Juneau area. Climate change rather then regional tectonics has forced relative sea-level change over the last several hundred years.     

利用盐沼泥炭重建长江三角洲北部全新世中期海平面

根据对长江三角洲北部海安地区4个钻孔标志性沉积物(潮上带盐沼泥炭、高潮滩沉积)的年龄测定和高程测量,以及沉积物压实沉降量的分析研究,重建了本研究区全新世中期8.1～7.3 cal kyr BP和5.6～5.4 cal kyr BP的相对海平面位置。结果显示,8.1～7.3 cal kyr BP海平面缓慢上升1.46m,上升速率仅为0.2cm/yr, 与三角洲南部全新世早期海平面的快速上升(2cm/yr)形成鲜明对比,验证了冰盖控制下的全球海平面阶段性波动上升模式。对比长江三角洲地区海平面曲线发现,三角洲北部海平面曲线较南部低5～6m,长江三角洲海平面曲线与世界各地海平面曲线也存在明显差异,分析认为主要是由长江口地区的差异性沉降和中国东部边缘海的水均衡作用两个因素引起的。     

An integrated 1D–2D hydraulic modelling approach to assess the sensitivity of a coastal region to compound flooding hazard under climate change

Coastal regions are dynamic areas that often lie at the junction of different natural hazards. Extreme events such as storm surges and high precipitation are significant sources of concern for flood management. As climatic changes and sea-level rise put further pressure on these vulnerable systems, there is a need for a better understanding of the implications of compounding hazards. Recent computational advances in hydraulic modelling offer new opportunities to support decision-making and adaptation. Our research makes use of recently released features in the HEC-RAS version 5.0 software to develop an integrated 1D–2D hydrodynamic model. Using extreme value analysis with the Peaks-Over-Threshold method to define extreme scenarios, the model was applied to the eastern coast of the UK. The sensitivity of the protected wetland known as the Broads to a combination of fluvial, tidal and coastal sources of flooding was assessed, accounting for different rates of twenty-first century sea-level rise up to the year 2100. The 1D–2D approach led to a more detailed representation of inundation in coastal urban areas, while allowing for interactions with more fluvially dominated inland areas to be captured. While flooding was primarily driven by increased sea levels, combined events exacerbated flooded area by 5–40% and average depth by 10–32%, affecting different locations depending on the scenario. The results emphasise the importance of catchment-scale strategies that account for potentially interacting sources of flooding.

     

City-Based Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise Using Topographic and Census Data for the Turkish Coastal Zone

Turkish coastal zone elevation to sea level rise was illustrated using a digital elevation model and methods in a geographical information system. It was intended to determine several parameters such as population, settlements, land use, wetlands, contribution to national agricultural production, and taxes at risk using high-resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission topographic, orthorectified Landsat Thematic Mapper Mosaics and census data with geographical information system methods within 0- to 10-m elevation of the national level. All parameters were examined for coastal cities, coastal districts, settlements, and villages' status. It was found that approximately 7,319 km² of land area lies below the 10-m contour line in Turkey and is, hence, highly vulnerable to sea level rise. Twenty-eight coastal cities, 191 districts, and 181 villages or towns are located below the 10-m contour line in the study area. The findings suggest that the Turkish Ministry of Environment should declare new areas protected and develop special environmental programs at the national level.     

Multiple scenario analyses forecasting the confounding impacts of sea level rise and tides from storm induced coastal flooding in the city of Shanghai,China

Shanghai is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise because of its low elevation, flat topography, highly developed economy and highly-dense population. In this paper, two scenarios of sea level rise and storm surge flooding along the Shanghai coast are presented by forecasting 24 (year 2030) and 44 (year 2050) years into the future and are applied to a digital elevation model to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to levee breach and overtopping using previously developed inflow calculating and flood routing models. Further, the socio-economic impacts are examined by combining the inundation areas with land use and land cover change simulated using GeoCA-Urban software package. This analysis shows that levee breach inundation mainly occurs in the coastal zones and minimally intrudes inland with the conservative protection of dike systems designed. However, storm surge flooding at the possible maximum tide level could cause nearly total inundation of the landscape, and put approximately 24 million people in Shanghai under direct risk resulting from consequences of flooding (e.g. contamination of potable water supplies, failure of septic systems, etc.).     

Impacts of Coastal Land Use and Shoreline Armoring on Estuarine Ecosystems: an Introduction to a Special Issue

The nearshore land-water interface is an important ecological zone that faces anthropogenic pressure from development in coastal regions throughout the world. Coastal waters and estuaries like Chesapeake Bay receive and process land discharges loaded with anthropogenic nutrients and other pollutants that cause eutrophication, hypoxia, and other damage to shallow-water ecosystems. In addition, shorelines are increasingly armored with bulkhead (seawall), riprap, and other structures to protect human infrastructure against the threats of sea-level rise, storm surge, and erosion. Armoring can further influence estuarine and nearshore marine ecosystem functions by degrading water quality, spreading invasive species, and destroying ecologically valuable habitat. These detrimental effects on ecosystem function have ramifications for ecologically and economically important flora and fauna. This special issue of Estuaries and Coasts explores the interacting effects of coastal land use and shoreline armoring on estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems. The majority of papers focus on the Chesapeake Bay region, USA, where 50 major tributaries and an extensive watershed (~ 167,000 km²), provide an ideal model to examine the impacts of human activities at scales ranging from the local shoreline to the entire watershed. The papers consider the influence of watershed land use and natural versus armored shorelines on ecosystem properties and processes as well as on key natural resources.