Shift-share analysis and international trade

In today’s global economy, increased international market integration and a steep rise in the number of multinational enterprises have made the notion of there being no international trade bizarre indeed. This paper revises the shift-share analysis by adopting the net export ratio (NX) to separate the domestic and foreign components of regional employment change and to show the revealed comparative advantage of international trade. The result is found that the effects of international trade on employment change are ubiquitous, and its importance therefore cannot be overlooked. As for the significantly positive values of NX and its relative growth, for example, the employment change mainly arises from the international market and not from domestic demand. This modification makes the shift-share analysis more reasonable and sensible, especially in relation to a small open economy.     

Do high technology agglomerations encourage urban sprawl?

This paper looks at the impact of high technology employment concentrations on urban sprawl. A methodology for translating spatial employment patterns, into place of residence patterns, is presented. On this basis, the consumption of land at the urban fringe due to both residential and non-residential uses, is estimated. The method is tested empirically using data relating to the two main outer suburban agglomerations of high technology activity in the Chicago metropolitan area. Two counter-factual situations are simulated. The first relates to a spatial counter-factual whereby the high tech concentrations develop in the city of Chicago or within the inner suburbs. The second presents an industry counter-factual that estimates the land consumption impacts arising from the development of an alternative industrial concentration in the same location. The results of the actual and hypothetical cases are compared. They point to a considerable saving in acreage in all alternative scenarios. Some policy implications are highlighted. Received: March 2001/Accepted: April 2002 Thanks to three anonymous referees for constructive criticism on an earlier draft, to Joe Persky for advice and to Tim Angell Lake County Department of Planning and Development and Bill Syverson, County Community Development, DuPage County who provided access to firm-level employment data. The work was undertaken when the author was Senior Research Fellow at the Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago.     

Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques

We extend in this analysis an approach introduced by Patterson and suggested by M?ller and Tassinopoulos. Our approach uses a generalization of an econometric analogue of the common shift-share method, suggested here as a new “workhorse” for regional analyses. The results obtained with this shift-share-regression, and with very differentiated data from the employment statistics of eastern Germany, show that processes of deconcentration play a role in explaining regional disparities, since inverse localization and positive urbanization effects are visible. The relevant processes can be understood by implementing approaches of “new economic geography”, structural change and endogenous growth theory.     

Scalable shift-share analysis: Novel framework and application to France

The shift-share analysis (SSA) of regional employment growth disparities aims at disentangling the effects of regional differences in industry mix and industrial competitiveness. Yet, the spatial concentration of industry is a blindspot of this approach. We generalize the SSA to encompass this salient feature of the economic geography. Besides, industry emergence and catastrophic growth events—booming or collapsing industries—are integrated in our framework. This novel method is applied to study regional disparities in manufacturing employment growth in France in a dynamic way over a 22-year period at a fine geographical level.     

Urban growth effects on rural population, export and service employment: evidence from eastern France

This paper examines how the spatial pattern of urban growth in functional economic regions influences the interplay of rural export employment, rural services employment, and population change in rural areas. Using an extension of the Boarnet’s model (Papers in Regional Science 73:135–153, 1994), we find that urban spread effects to rural areas in France are more likely than urban backwash effects, and that spatial urban (both dynamic and static) externalities affect rural population and employment growth. In the functional economic regions where the urban core is declining and the urban fringe is expanding, urban population growth involves an increase in rural export employment, and larger change in service employment favors rural population growth. However, urban export job growth reduces the growth in rural service jobs and expanding urban service jobs reduce rural export jobs, suggesting that expanding urban employment opportunities draws employees away from proximate rural communities. Conversely, where both urban core and fringe are growing, we observe an urban spread effect from the urban export sector to rural services—an export base multiplier effect with a spatial dimension—and from urban population growth to rural service employment.

Sources of regional inefficiency An integrated shift-share, data envelopment analysis and input-output approach

This paper develops and tests an integrated set of models to investigate sources of (in)efficiencies in regional industry sectors. First, following the Haynes and Dinc (1997) extension of the shift-share model, leading regional industrial sectors are identified for analysis based on their scale, productivity and sources of productivity change. Second, by employing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the efficiency of these lead sectors is investigated and the future competitiveness of these sectors is evaluated. Finally, by incorporating input-output analysis into the model the impact of intersectoral transactions on sectoral efficiency is assessed. Received: November 1997/Accepted: May 1998     

Urban externalities and city growth in Taiwan

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influences of citywide and city-industry externalities on city growth. The effects of various externalities on city and industry growth for two different time periods in Taiwan are studied. The results indicate that employment growth at the city-industry level is: (1) negatively related to the initial city-industry employment; (2) positively related to the level of competition in the initial year; and (3) positively related to the degree of diversity in the initial year. The extent of the impact of the diversity externality is relatively large compared with the other effects. In addition, wage growth at the city-industry level is found to be: (1) negatively related to the initial city-industry wage rate; and (2) positively related to the degree of diversity in the initial year. Overall, we find that specialization hurts, competition helps, and city diversity helps both employment growth and wage growth. Our results favor Jacobs's theory, which would suggest that cross-industry externalities and local competition are more important for industry growth than are intra-industry spillovers. Received: February 2001/Accepted: April 2001     

Urban spatial structure,agglomeration economies,and economic growth in Barcelona: An intra‐metropolitan perspective*

This paper presents an intra‐metropolitan approach to analyse the impact of urban spatial structure on local economic growth. Focusing on the Barcelona metropolitan region (BMR) between 1986 and 2001, we estimate a municipal employment growth model in which dynamic agglomeration economies related to urban spatial structure are considered using distance to employment centres, to assess metropolitan effects, and distance‐weighted variables, to measure neighbourhood effects. The results obtained show the existence of neighbourhood specialization economies and metropolitan urbanization‐localization economies fostering local growth. All of this leads to the paper's main conclusion: urban spatial structure is important for economic growth in an intra‐metropolitan context.     

The impact of convergence in the industrial mix on regional comparative growth: Empirical evidence from the French case

The aim of this article is to explain heterogeneities in French regional labor productivities since the mid-seventies at both aggregate and sectoral level. This paper extends the works of Baumol and of Barro and Salai-Martin, firstly by pointing out sources of growth linked to the new growth theories (research effort, size effects) and secondly by emphasizing the impact of cross-sectoral labor reallocations through a shift-share analysis. Our results show the importance of regional asymmetries and the key role played by the dynamic of sectoral composition in the convergence of labor productivities within France.Received: November 2000/Accepted: February 2004     

Do localization economies derive from human capital externalities?

One of the most robust findings emerging from studies of industrial agglomeration is the rise in productivity that tends to accompany it. What most studies have not addressed, however, is the potential role played by human capital externalities in driving this relationship. This paper seeks to do so using data from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 US Census covering a collection of 77 (primarily) three-digit manufacturing industries across a sample of more than 200 metropolitan areas. The analysis generates two primary results. First, a variety of education- and experience-based measures of average human capital rise significantly as an industry’s employment in a metropolitan area increases. Hence, clusters of industry do tend to be characterized by larger stocks of human capital. However, second, even after accounting for the level of human capital in a worker’s own industry, the overall size of the industry remains strongly associated with wages. Such results cast some doubt on the notion that localization economies emanate from education- or experience-based knowledge spillovers. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.     

Impacts of national development and decentralization policies on regional income disparity in Korea

This paper analyzed the effects of national development and decentralization policies on the regional income disparity in Korea. It also attempted to test whether there was a structural change in the causal relationship between income inequality and its determinant factors. This study found that the degree of variation in regional incomes was positively correlated with the spatial distribution of decentralization instruments such as educational services, employment, infrastructure facilities, and information network variables. The effects of some decentralization policies on regional income inequality were fully realized within a period of three years. Finally, the impacts of the spatial decentralization of public goods on regional inequality fluctuated until the early 1980s but were stabilized as industrial restructuring and spatial reorganization progressed during the 1990s. Received: December 2001/Accepted: June 2002     

A metropolitan input-output model: Multisectoral and multispatial relations of production,income formation,and consumption

This study formulates a metropolitan input-output model (hereafter MIO) that incorporates the multispatial and multisectoral nature of an urban economic system. Two main features can be highlighted which distinguish the MIO model from other input-output models as applied to the urban context. The MIO model integrates information on intrametropolitan flows of people, commodities and services through the embedding approach within an input-output framework. Accordingly, the model has been built in one methodological framework (input-output framework) and operated by using one calculation system (inversion of input coefficient matrix), taking interspatial and intersectoral linkages into consideration. Another unique characteristic of the proposed model is that the input coefficient matrix of the MIO model consists of three partitioned matrices that have different spatial dimensions: interindustrial technical coefficients by place of production; the income coefficients by place of residence, and consumption coefficients by place of consumption. The MIO model can be applied for the impact analysis of a variety of urban policy evaluations. The main sets of results are derived as outputs from the MIO model: gross output and employment by zone, by sector, by income group, and by repercussion type.The early version of this paper was presented at the Western Regional Science Association (WRSA), February 25-28, 2001, Palm Springs, CA. This Research was supported by the Chung-Ang University Special Research Grants in 1999.     

Integrating models for regional development decisions: A policy perspective

This paper develops and demonstrates a combined set of models to capture regional development decision processes. The results of the models are then integrated along with other socio-political factors within a policy relevant decision methodology framework. The Haynes and Dinc (1997) extension of the shift-share model identifies regional industrial sectors for analysis based on their scale, productivity and sources of productivity change. By employing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the efficiency of these lead sectors is investigated and the future competitiveness of these sectors is evaluated. By incorporating input-output analysis the impact of inter-sectoral transactions on sectoral efficiency is assessed. Since in most cases state economic development planning and implementation processes also involve political judgements, based on the findings of the above models, the study suggests a decision support framework which combines the above mentioned quantitative tools with other qualitative decision factors. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed as a multi-objective decision making device to integrate the relevant policy components. Received: March 2001/Accepted: January 2002 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are entirely those of authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its executive directors, or the countries the represent.     

Judging regional forecasting accuracy — Sectoral employment in the San Francisco Bay area

Summary This paper has briefly discussed the problem of judging regional economic forecasting accuracy from the point of view of assessing the quality of industry employment forecasts for the SF Bay Area on an expost basis. Because of the formidable problems associated with regional economic forecasting a sophisticated econometric approach toex ante analysis was rejected in favor of accuracy analysis of employment projection along lines suggested by Henri Theil. This accuracy analysis involved a slightly modified version of Theil's inequality coefficient. The coefficient permits easy comparison of a given model's output with an assumed naive model, the comparison being predicated upon acceptance of a quadratic loss criteria. The results suggest that the SF Model functions substantially better than two versions of naive models: the no-change and the average historical change models. Forecasting with the model, however, is independent upon ability to obtain sufficiently detailed forecasts of national economic developments. While the development of econometric art is promising, no national models predict all the exogenous variables required. One model, the Wharton School's, is presently producing results which are being modified for inclusion in the exogenous variables of this model. In the absence of completion of this task, estimates prepared for the State of California's quarterly forecasting model have been used to generate forecasts to 1970, Tests of these forecasts over the period 1964–1966 suggest that errors in the exogenous variables seriously affect the outcome of the regional model. Nonetheless, the results are still superior to the naive model against which the regional model has been tested.     

Forecasting change using an interregional homogeneity index

This study of employment change in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, SMSA applies an index of interregional homogeneity to determine the extent to which the industrial structure of the region over a nine-year period has been modifiedvis-a-vis that of the rest of the nation. Indices derived from the analysis are synthesized with a modified employment shift model to forecast expected employment for twenty-two industries in the ABE, SMSA for the year 1975. It is demonstrated that an interregional homogeneity index when combined with a shift and share model can be adapted to systematically forecast regional change. The concept employed is to first stratify the allocation of change to a sub-region in total and then to each industry.This study was made possible in part by a research grant from Waynesburg College.     

A dissection of the growth of regional disparities in Chinese labor productivity between 1997 and 2002

This paper quantifies the effects of some proximate causes for the regional productivity disparities of China in 1997 and their growth in the five years thereafter. A novel shift-share approach based on input–output data is used to divide the regional differences, so that explicit attention is paid to the regional consequences of China’s specific role in global production networks (with a focus on sectoral value added coefficients). In the process, a new method is proposed to deflate the data in constant prices. The results show that regions with high labor productivity levels in 1997 generally experienced increases of the employment shares in sectors with high productivity levels.     

An estimation of the size of the hidden labour force in construction in Trinidad and Tobago

In every country there is a hidden economy operating alongside the formal economy. The published national statistics record only the formal economy. These statistics indicate that the construction industry is an important source of both wealth creation and employment despite the fact that they fail to take account of three important aspects of the sector. These are that the broadly defined construction sector is much larger than the construction industry, what is known as the ‘informal’ sector, and the work done by direct labour organisations. In the absence of actual measures of the size of these aspects, an indirect technique has been used to provide an estimate of their scale. These estimates are used to obtain an overview of their possible impact on the actual role of the sector in terms of output and employment in the economy. The preliminary estimates suggest the overall contribution of construction to the economy of Trinidad and Tobago represents some three times the official Figure.     

黑龙江省建筑业对就业增长贡献分析

分析1990～2009年黑龙江省建筑业的就业状况,分别计算黑龙江省第一、二、三产业、建筑业的就业产值弹性:运用VAR模型研究黑龙江省建筑业发展对黑龙江省就业的动态影响.就业产值弹性计算结果表明,黑龙江省建筑业的发展对其就业具有推动作用.VAR模型分析结果显示:建筑业发展是黑龙江省就业增长的格兰杰原因;黑龙江省建筑业产值...     

Regional implications of the 2001 recession

This paper investigates the 2001 recession on a state by state basis. The approach used for this investigation measured the state by state severity of the 2001 recession and identifies the contribution that each state made to the overall U.S. GDP Okun gap. State by state long-term growth rates for both output and employment were calculated and an “Okun gap contribution” for the 2001–2005 period was estimated for each state. Each state’s Okun gap contribution for output and employment was expressed in relative terms allowing for comparisons of volatility between states with respect to the 2001 recession. Finally, for both output and employment regressions were estimated using the relative Okun gap contribution as the dependent variable and selected demographic and economic measures as explanatory variables to explain the state and regional differences in cyclical performance. The results of the regression analysis provide insight into the factors that tend to increase state and regional cyclical volatility and the factors that tend to smooth volatility.