长江嘉陵江重庆段多环芳烃的分布特征和来源辨析

2014年7月,采集长江嘉陵江重庆段9个断面的地表水和沉积物样品,检测15种多环芳烃(PAHs)含量.结果表明,地表水的∑PAHs浓度范围为65.6—1249 ng·L~(-1),沉积物中∑PAHs浓度范围为68.6—4226 ng·g~(-1),与其历史浓度水平相当;聚类分析表明,化工园区对其下游PAHs分布有一定影响,园区下游地表水和沉积物∑PAHs浓度最高.两江汇流前,地表水4环PAHs占总量的43.63%—61.68%;两江汇流后,2环比例增加,占总量的29.01%—68.72%;沉积物4环PAHs占总量的26.62%—48.74%.在顺流方向,地表水中河左∑PAHs浓度高于河中和河右,沉积物中∑PAHs浓度横向无明显差别,其中化工园区下游可能是受左岸工业影响,地表水中河左∑PAHs浓度是河中、河右的12倍和7倍,沉积物中河左∑PAHs浓度是河右的7倍.环数组成、分子比值和主成分分析表明研究区域地表水PAHs来源主要为木材、煤燃烧源,同时还包括石油燃烧和石油泄漏,沉积物则主要为木材、煤高温燃烧源.     

新乡市家庭室内灰尘中多环芳烃的污染及人体暴露特征

在新乡市牧野区22个中学生家庭室内采集灰尘,系统探讨了室内灰尘中多环芳烃(Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons,PAHs)的浓度、污染来源、人体暴露特征及健康风险.结果表明,新乡市中学生家庭室内灰尘中美国EPA优先检测的15种PAHs的检出率为100%,15种PAHs总量范围为203—9500 ng·g~(-1),平均值为2100 ng·g~(-1).新乡市中学生家庭室内灰尘中PAHs主要由4环组分构成,占总量的38.1%.多特征比值法表明,草、木材和煤的不完全燃烧是新乡市中学生家庭室内灰尘中PAHs的主要来源.增量终生致癌风险(Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk,ILCRs)评价结果表明,3种暴露途径的增量终生致癌风险值为皮肤接触手口摄入呼吸吸入,说明室内灰尘中PAHs主要的暴露途径为皮肤接触.6个采样点的CR值属于可以接受的安全范围,其余采样点均存在潜在健康风险,但均未达到较大的潜在健康风险,仍需引起人们足够的重视.     

新疆阿勒泰地区土壤中多环芳烃含量水平及来源解析

为了研究新疆阿勒泰地区土壤多环芳烃(PAHs)污染状况,于2018年10月对阿勒泰地区表层土壤进行采样,共采集样品14个,采用气相色谱-质谱仪(GC-MS 7890A-5975MSD Agilent)测定土壤样品中16种优控PAHs含量,并对其组成、分布及来源情况进行解析。结果表明,阿勒泰地区表层土壤中∑_(16)PAHs含量介于3.48～103.81 ng·g~(-1)之间,平均含量为32.24 ng·g~(-1),PAHs组成以3、4环为主,其中,7种致癌PAHs总含量介于0.32～50.95 ng·g~(-1)之间,平均含量为11.20 ng·g~(-1)。研究区域土壤PAHs污染水平较低,且PAHs污染水平与海拔高度无显著相关性(r=-0.471,P=0.668)。同分异构体比值法分析结果表明阿勒泰地区土壤PAHs主要来源于化石燃料及生物质燃烧,机动车尾气排放对PAHs贡献较大。主成分分析-多元线性回归解析结果表明,阿勒泰地区土壤PAHs主要受交通源(62.8%)、焦炉和燃煤源(28.2%)以及生物质燃烧源(9.0%)3个污染源影响,与新疆2012年排放贡献源相比,交通源以及焦炉和燃煤源排放占比呈上升趋势。     

北京市冬季道路沉积物中多环芳烃的污染特征和源解析

在北京城区四环以内采集了33个冬季道路沉积物样品,分析其中多环芳烃(PAHs)的含量、分布特征、来源和生态风险.结果表明,16种多环芳烃(PAHs)∑16PAHs的浓度范围为931.0—2668.7 ng·g~(-1)干重,平均浓度为1602.4 ng·g~(-1)干重,污染物的组成以4环和3环PAHs为主.通过LMW/HMW(低分子量与高分子量PAHs的比值)法、特征比值法和主成分分析法得出,道路沉积物中PAHs主要来自于煤、化石燃料的燃烧以及交通尾气的排放.由TEQBa P分析结果可知,33个采样点PAHs的∑16TEQBa P范围为58.2—324.4 ng·g-1干重,平均值为139.3 ng·g~(-1)干重;所有采样点的∑10TEQBa P范围为33.1—266.8 ng·g~(-1)干重,平均值为95.0 ng·g-1干重,均超过荷兰土壤的目标参考值,说明北京市冬季道路沉积物中PAHs存在潜在的生态风险;其中7种致癌性PAHs(Ba A、Chr、Bb F、Bk F、Ba P、IPY和DBA)的TEQBa P占∑16TEQBa P的96.1%—99.3%,平均值为98.5%,是∑16TEQBa P的主要贡献者,并且Ba P的贡献率最大.     

污灌区农田土壤多环芳烃污染及风险评价

污灌区农田土壤可能受到多环芳烃(PAHs)的严重污染.本文以山西省黎城污灌区为研究对象,对其中农田土壤中16种优控PAHs的含量水平、组成特征以及风险进行分析和评价.结果表明,该污灌区农田土壤中PAHs总含量范围为16.03—1320.95 ng·g~(-1),平均值为226.74 ng·g~(-1).土壤中PAHs以4—6环的PAHs为主,占总量的61%.风险评价结果显示该区域有40%的样品受到污染,其中重度、中度和轻微污染所占比例分别为2.9%、2.9%和34.3%.健康风险评价结果显示,该区域已具有潜在的致癌风险.从污染评价结果以及与山西省内其它区域农田土壤多环芳烃含量比较来看,研究区土壤已经受到PAHs不同程度的污染.在未来环境管理和控制过程中应采取有效措施,以保护人体健康和生态环境安全.     

云南省树皮样品中多环芳烃和有机氯农药的浓度分布及来源解析

2012年8月于云南省采集了16个树皮样品,分析了其中多环芳烃和有机氯农药(包括六六六和滴滴涕)的浓度水平和分布特征.树皮中∑_(16)PAH的浓度范围为317—1194 ng·g~(-1),平均值为639 ng·g~~(-1);研究区域树皮中∑_4HCH和∑_6DDT的浓度分别为为0.10—3.86 ng·g~(-1)干重(平均值为1.10 ng·g~(-1)干重)和0.78—7.29 ng·g~(-1)干重(平均值为3.32 ng·g~(-1)干重),PAHs浓度是藏东南林芝地区的2—3倍,而有机氯农药的浓度低于藏东南林芝地区.树皮中脂肪可影响研究区域持久性有机污染物(Persistent organic pollutants,POPs)的分布,但影响不显著.同时HCHs、DDTs和2环及3环PAHs的浓度随海拔的升高而增加,呈典型的高山冷捕获效应;4环、5环和6环PAHs的浓度随着海拔的升高而降低,这可能是云南本地污染源影响所致.较低质量的PAHs(2—3环)是研究区域PAHs的重要组成部分,平均占总浓度的77%以上,说明研究区域受到污染物大气远距离传输的重要影响.PAHs特征单体比值表明,草、木材等生物质和煤炭燃料等的低温燃烧是研究区域PAHs的主要来源,同时较低的α/γ-HCH和较高的o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT比率表明,林丹和三氯杀螨醇的使用对研究区域树皮中有机氯农药的污染有一定的贡献.根据反向气团轨迹模型及PAHs和OCPs的浓度分布,推断研究区域的OCPs主要受印度季风和西风环流的影响,而PAHs是大气远距离传输源和云南本地污染源共同作用的结果.     

长江安庆段及毗邻湖泊沉积物中多环芳烃分布及风险评价

采集长江安庆段及其沿江湖泊群表层沉积物样品共30个,检测16种多环芳烃(Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons,PAHs)含量.结果表明,长江安庆段(4个断面)的∑PAHs浓度范围为36.0—221.6 ng·g~(-1)(干重,下同),平均浓度为137.1#76.5 ng·g~(-1);安庆沿江湖泊群(23个采样点)的浓度范围则为45.5—3608.8 ng·g~(-1),平均浓度为941.5±868.5 ng·g~(-1).研究区域内∑PAHs主要以高环(4—6环,HMW)为主,表明主要受交通运输、船舶油类以及化工厂等高温燃烧排放影响.同分异构体分析进一步表明,PAHs主要来源于燃烧排放,不同湖泊存在不同的潜在来源,嬉子湖受到石油排放源、煤木柴燃烧和石油及其精炼产品的燃烧等多重来源影响,而菜子湖中则主要受木材、煤等燃烧源影响,长江安庆段存在石油直接排放源及其燃烧源共同影响.石门湖和白荡湖则以石油及其精炼产品燃烧源为主.生态风险评价表明,长江安庆段及沿江湖泊群表层沉积物中PAHs处于较低的生态风险状态.     

太原市公园土壤中多环芳烃污染特征

本研究于2016年采集太原市公园14个表层土壤样品,应用气相色谱质谱联用仪(GCMS)分析了样品中16种优先控制多环芳烃(PAHs)含量,并探讨了PAHs的来源和健康风险.结果表明,样品中∑16PAHs平均浓度为1301.99 ng·g~(-1)(范围为294.36—2540.64 ng·g-1),与国内其他城市相比属于较高污染水平.土壤中PAHs以4环为主,其次为5环、3环、6环、2环.PAHs空间分布受污染排放源和暴露时间的影响存在较大差异.源解析结果表明,土壤中PAHs主要来自煤和机动车排放、焦化、生物质燃烧,3种来源贡献率分别为64.58%、18.75%、16.67%.通过风险评价发现所有土壤中PAHs均超过相应的标准,存在相当高的潜在风险,对公众健康存在影响,应当引起高度重视.     

杭埠-丰乐河表层沉积物中多环芳烃的污染特征、来源分析及生态风险评价

对杭埠-丰乐河12个采样点的表层沉积物中16种优控多环芳烃(PAHs)的含量进行了测定.结果表明:16种PAHs均被普遍检出,总含量(∑PAHs)范围为71.3±15—3372±402 ng·g~(-1)干重(dw),平均值为938 ng·g~(-1)(dw),与国内主要河流相比其浓度处于中等水平.底泥中多环芳烃组成以4环和5环为主,共占∑PAHs的81%,其中,二苯并[a.h]蒽(DBA)浓度最高,平均浓度为254 ng·g~(-1).底泥总有机碳(TOC)与∑PAHs之间有良好线性关系.利用特征比值法和主成分分析探讨了PAHs的可能来源,结果显示,杭埠-丰乐河底泥中PAHs主要来自于流域周边居民生物质、煤燃烧及汽车燃油污染.利用沉积物质量基准法和苯并[a]芘毒性当量(TEQBa P)法分别评价了杭埠-丰乐河沉积物PAHs的生态风险和致癌风险,发现部分采样点某些多环芳烃含量超过了效应区间低值(ERL),具有潜在的生态风险;沉积物中TEQBa P均值高达343 ng·g~(-1),具有相当高的致癌风险.     

典型城乡交错区土壤中多环芳烃污染及健康风险评价

以典型城镇化进程中武汉郊区-鄂州城市-鄂州郊区为研究对象,探讨城乡交错区多环芳烃(PAHs)污染水平和来源,并进行健康风险评价.研究区土壤中PAHs广泛存在,16种PAHs检出率达100%.土壤中∑16PAHs含量为16.60—1854.21 ng·g~(-1),均值为411.67 ng·g~(-1);7种致癌单体多环芳烃Σ7PAHs含量为4.17—1169.98 ng·g~(-1),均值为251.93 ng·g~(-1).不同点位PAHs污染水平差异较大,其中在居民密集区、城市建设及交通繁忙区域尤为显著,说明城乡交错区人为社会和经济活动在一定程度上对土壤中PAHs污染产生较大影响.采用组分特征比值和主成分分析污染来源,结果显示该地区土壤中PAHs主要源于煤燃烧和机动车尾气排放以及秸秆等生物质低温燃烧排放,同时存在石油源污染.在城市化建设发展中,城乡交错区工业、农业、交通及生活等各种区域相互交错重叠,人为活动异常活跃,产生大量PAHs输入源,逐渐成为影响生活和环境的重要影响因素之一.研究区对于成人和儿童通过呼吸暴露于土壤PAHs几乎不存在风险;而通过皮肤接触及经口摄入途径暴露于土壤PAHs存在一定潜在风险.此外,儿童通过3种途径暴露致癌风险低于成人;成人和儿童通过3种途径暴露的致癌风险大小顺序均为经口摄入皮肤接触呼吸.     

Achieving Open Access to Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación     

Rapid,recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Some polyphagous Homoptera gain protection from their natural enemies by feeding on the toxic plantsSpartium junceum andErythrina corallodendrum (Leguminosae)

Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.     

A palaeo-hydrogeological model for arsenic contamination in southern and south-east Asia

An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.     

Sequestration of cucurbitacin analogs by New and Old World chrysomelid leaf beetles in the tribe Luperini

Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.     

Threats to intact tropical peatlands and opportunities for their conservation

Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.     

Effects of Controlled Fire and Livestock Grazing on Bird Communities in East African Savannas

Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.