基于三角模糊数的贝叶斯水质评价模型

将贝叶斯理论和模糊集理论引入水质评价领域,分别描述了水质评价过程中模型结构和参数的不确定性,建立了基于三角模糊数的贝叶斯模糊综合水质评价模型.对Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ类水分别赋值,并根据监测点水质对各类别的后验概率计算水质的综合得分进而确定水质类别.同时,选取了TP、NH4+-N、COD、DO、As及粪大肠菌群为水质评价因子,将建立的模型应用于2010年洞庭湖水质评价中.结果表明,小河嘴、横岭湖、万子湖、目平湖、洞庭湖出口水质达到Ⅱ类水标准;南嘴、岳阳楼水质为Ⅲ类水;东洞庭湖和扁山水质介于Ⅱ类水和Ⅲ类水之间,对各等级的隶属度分别为0.4983/Ⅲ+0.5017/Ⅱ、0.7962/Ⅲ+0.2038/Ⅱ.各监测点位中,仅南嘴水质未达到相应的水质标准.较均值模型、三角模糊数模型和传统贝叶斯模型而言,基于三角模糊数的贝叶斯水质评价模型对不确定性的表达更为全面、更符合实际.     

水质模型参数优化的遗传算法实现及控制参数分析

参数识别是数学模型应用的前提.遗传算法是一种通用的全局优化算法,结构简单.一个实际应用问题能否利用遗传算法解决,关键在于遗传算法的设计和控制参数的选取.本文结合水质模型参数优化的特点,提出采用正交试验设计的方法来考察遗传算法不同控制参数对参数优化性能的影响,结果显示,正交法较好地识别了关键影响因素,并提出可能的最优方案.表明遗传算法能较好地应用于复杂多参数水质模型的参数识别研究.     

基于注意力机制优化的BiLSTM珠江口水质预测模型

为提高珠江口水质预测精度和稳定性,提出了基于时间和特征双注意力机制优化的BiLSTM水质预测模型,引入特征注意力机制强化模型捕获参数重要特征能力,加入时间注意力机制提高对时间序列相关性信息及水质波动细节信息的挖掘能力.将新模型应用于珠江8个入海口水质预测,开展预测性能试验、泛化能力试验和特征参数扩展性试验.结果表明:①新模型在珠海大桥水质预测取得了较高的预测精度,预测值与实测值的均方根误差RMSE为0.004 1 mg·L^-1,决定系数R²为98.3 %.与Multi-BiLSTM、Multi-LSTM、BiLSTM和LSTM对比,表明新模型预测精度最高,验证了模型的精准性.②训练样本数量和预测步数均对模型预测精度产生影响,模型预测精度随着训练样本的增加而提升,海珠大桥断面总磷预测时,240组以上训练样本可获得较高预测精度;增加预测步数,会使模型预测精度迅速下降,预测步数大于5步时无法保障模型预测的可靠性.③将新模型应用于珠江8个入海口不同水质指标预测,预测结果均取得较高精度,模型具有较强的泛化能力;输入对象断面预测指标相关联的上游来水、降雨量等特征参数,能够提高模型预测精度.通过多方面多次试验,结果表明新模型能够较好地满足珠江口水质预测精度、适用性和扩展性要求,为复杂水动力环境水体水质高精度预测进行了新的探索.     

基于Matlab软件自动化求取参数的HEC-RAS模型构建

水质模型是水环境模拟的重要工具,近年来越来越多的应用于水环境预测与管理中,但平原河网水质模拟一直是个难点.本研究采用HEC-RAS模型开展湖州市长兴城区平原河网水动力和水质模拟.模型的水质模块率定采用Matlab软件自动化求取参数,代替常规试错法求参率定,减少了人工干预,提高了模型率定效率.HEC-RAS模型在平原河网地区水动力模拟结果较好,水质模拟结果基本符合要求,证明了HEC-RAS模型在平原河网应用的可行性,但模型的精度通常受水系概化、水文状况、污染源信息等因素影响,对于信息比较充分的短时段水质模拟其精度相对较好.     

基于贝叶斯网络的河流突发性水质污染事故风险评估

事故造成的水质突发性风险评估对于河流水质安全管理具有重要意义.通过贝叶斯网络直观地表示事故风险源和河流水质之间的相关性,并用时序蒙特卡罗算法将风险源状态模拟、水质模拟和贝叶斯网络推理过程结合,可以对多个风险源共同影响下的河流突发性水质污染事故的超标风险进行量化评估.案例研究表明,多风险源对同一受纳水体的水质突发性污染事故风险的耦合影响十分显著,在进行流域水安全管理时必须对多风险源进行综合管理.同时,模型的诊断推理功能可为流域关键风险源识别和管理提供决策支持.     

流域水质管理优化决策模型研究

针对目前流域水污染难以有效控制的局面,依据已有的流域水文、水动力、水质、水生态相关机理模拟模型的研究,在考虑了流域社会经济发展条件的基础上,构建了流域水质管理优化决策模型框架体系.基于该框架体系,本文从简单流域系统优化模型、模拟与优化联合模型和时空尺度复杂优化模型3个方面对流域优化决策模型的研究发展历程进行综述,并指出其各自在发展过程中所出现的问题.最后,提出了优化决策模型面临的瓶颈问题,并从模型结构简化和适应性管理两个方面提出了相关的解决思路.     

基于区间型贝叶斯的湖泊水质评价模型

在贝叶斯水质评价模型中引入区间数表示污染物浓度,采用区间排序法对水质评价结果进行比较,建立了区间型贝叶斯湖泊水质评价模型。同时将该模型应用于某湖泊的5个采样点进行水质监测及评价,结果显示,5个采样点水质逐渐变差,均为劣V类。基于区间型贝叶斯的湖泊水质评价模型更加直观地表示了同类水质采样点的水质差别,避免了传统方法中主观因素的影响,为属于同类别水质的采样点排序提供了评价依据。     

三峡库区EFDC模型集成与应用

为满足三峡库区大尺度的水质预测需求,降低专业水质模型使用门槛,实现模型业务化运行,采用涵盖"模型封装-接口服务-系统集成"全过程的模型封装集成技术方法,开展了EFDC模型集成研究,并在三峡库区水质安全评估与预警系统中进行验证和应用.结果表明:①基于实例化模型建立的模型预置参数库,是模型业务化运行中参数简化的前提,可有效解决模型本地驯化及模型实例的基础数据复用问题;②依据参数识别结果,将模型参数识别为"必调参数、可调参数、默认参数"三类,并采用B/S架构对输入文件、输出文件和主控文件中的不同参数进行分类封装,达到参数简化目的;③采用半紧密型方式建立的基于Web services的EFDC模型集成接口服务及标准,可为信息系统提供通用的EFDC模型计算服务;④该方法在EFDC模型与三峡库区水质安全评估与预警系统集成中得到验证,实现了全库区干流及主要支流COD_Cr、总磷、总氮等污染因子的长时间序列水动力水质预测联机在线运算,满足了用户在水质影响预测预警中低修改量、高运算效率和良好用户体验等需求,实现了模型的业务化运行.      

卤代苯化合物水溶解度及正辛醇/水分配系数的三维构效关系研究

对卤代苯化合物的水溶解度(-lg Sw)和正辛醇/水分配系数(lg Kow)分别进行了基于三维结构的比较分子场(Co MFA)和比较分子相似性指数(Co MSIA)分析,建立了三维定量结构-性质相关(3D-QSPR)模型,并将所获结果与密度泛函理论(DFT)方法得到的2D-QSPR模型进行了比较.结果表明:-lg Sw的Co MFA和Co MSIA模型交叉验证相关系数Q2分别为0.902和0.940,决定系数R2分别为0.982和0.986,模型稳定性和估算能力较好;lg Kow的Co MFA和Co MSIA模型Q2分别为0.926和0.988,R2分别为0.983和0.997;本研究所建的3D-QSPR模型的估算能力优于2D-QSPR模型;Co MFA和Co MSIA模型三维等势图表明,取代基的疏水效应对该类化合物的水溶解性能及正辛醇/水分配系数的影响更为显著,立体效应次之,静电场效应影响较小.     

基于三维水动力水质数值模型的象山港排污策略研究

本文以象山港（半封闭港湾）为研究对象,采用Delft 3D软件建立三维水动力数值模型,对其潮位、潮流、温度、盐度的时空变化进行验证分析,计算结果与实测结果基本吻合,表明该模型能够较好地模拟象山港海域的水动力特征。为进一步研究象山港内污染物的迁移转化过程,在上述水动力模型的基础上构建三维水质模型,水质模拟结果与实测数据吻合良好,可以反映水质的变化趋势。利用验证后的水质模型,针对排污口的落潮排放、排放量减少和排污口整合3种排污策略进行模拟计算,分析排污口对象山港水质变量的影响程度。模拟结果表明,象山港水质环境受排污口影响明显,3种排污策略均可以直接降低港内DIN浓度,但不同的工况表现出不同的影响特征。     

Effects of two sludge application on fractionation and phytotoxicity of zinc and copper in the soil

The potential harm of heavy metals is a primary concern in application of sludge to the agricultural land. A pot experiment was conducted to evaluate the effect of two sludges on fractionation of Zn and Cu in soil and their phytotoxicity to pakchoi. The loamy soil was mixed with 0%, 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% (by weight) of digested sewage sludge (SS) and composted sludge (SC). The additions of both sludges caused a significant raise in all fractions, resulting in that exchangeable (EXCH) and organic bound (OM) became predominance of Zn and organic bound Cu occupied the largest portion. There was more available amount of Zn and Cu in SS treatments than SC treatments. During the pot experiment, the concentration of Zn in EXCH, carbonate (CAR) and OM and Cu in EXCH and OM fractions decreased in all treatments, so their bioavailability reduced. Germination rate and plant biomass decreased when the addition rate was high and the best yield appeared in 20% mixtures at the harvest of pakchoi. The two sludges increased tissue contents of Zn and Cu especially in the SS treatments. Zn in pakchoi was not only in relationship to ΔEXCH and ΔCAR forms but also in ΔOM forms in the sludge-soil mixtures. Tissue content of Cu in pakchoi grown on SC-soils could not be predicted by ΔEXCH. These correlation rates between Zn and Cu accumulation in pakchoi and variation of different fractions increased with time, which might indicate that sludges represented stronger impacts on the plant in long-term land application.     

Intraspecific differences in effects of co-contamination of cadmium and

A hydroponic experiment was carried out to study intraspecific differences in the effects of different concentrations of cadmium (Cd)(0-10 mg/L) and arsenate (As(V)) (0-8 mg/L) on the growth parameters and accumulation of Cd and As in six wheat varieties Jing-9428, Duokang-1, Jingdong-11, Jing-411, Jingdong-8 and Zhongmai-8. The endpoints of wheat seedlings, including seed germination,biomass, root length and shoot height, decreased with increasing the Cd and As concentrations. Significant differences in seed germination, biomass, root length, shoot height and the accumulation of Cd and As were observed between the treatments and among the varieties (p ＜ 0.05). The lethal dosage 50% were about 20, 80, 60, 60, 80 and 20 mg As/L for Jing-9428, Duokang-1, Jingdong-11,Jing-411, Jingdong-8 and Zhongmai-8, respectively, and the corresponding values for Cd were about 30, 80, 20, 40, 60 and 10 mg Cd/L, respectively. Among the six varieties, Duokang-1 was found to be the most resistant to Cd and As toxicity, and Zhongmai-8 was the most sensitive to Cd and As co-contamination. The resistance of the six varieties was found dependant on the seedling uptake of Cd and As. Duokang-1 was the most suitable for cultivation in Cd and As co-contaminated soils.     

Toxic effects of acetochlor, methamidophos and their combination on nifH gene in soil

Toxic effects of two agrochemicals on nifH gene in agricultural black soil were investigated using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis （DGGE） and sequencing approaches in a microcosm experiment. Changes of soil nifH gene diversity and composition were examined following the application of acetochlor, methamidophos and their combination. Acetochlor reduced the nifH gene diversity （both in gene richness and diversity index values） and caused changes in the nifH gene composition. The effects of acetochlor on nifH gene were strengthened as the concentration of acetochlor increased. Cluster analysis of DGGE banding patterns showed that nifH gene composition which had been affected by low concentration of acetochlor （50 mg/kg） recovered firstly. Methamidophos reduced nifH gene richness that except at 4 weeks. The medium concentration of methamidophos （150 mg/kg） caused the most apparent changes in nifH gene diversity at the first week while the high concentration of methamidophos （250 mg/kg） produced prominent effects on nifH gene diversity in the following weeks. Cluster analysis showed that minimal changes of nifH gene composition were found at 1 week and maximal changes at 4 weeks. Toxic effects of acetochlor and methamidophos combination on nifH gene were also apparent. Different nifH genes （bands） responded differently to the impact of agrochemicals： four individual bands were eliminated by the application of the agrochemicals, five bands became predominant by the stimulation of the agrochemicals, and four bands showed strong resistance to the influence of the agrochemicals. Fifteen prominent bands were partially sequenced, yielding 15 different nifH sequences, which were used for phylogenetic reconstructions. All sequences were affiliated with the alpha- and beta-proteobacteria, showing higher similarity to eight different diazotrophic genera.     

EDTA-enhanced phytoremediation of lead contaminated soil by Bidens maximowicziana

Phytoremediation is a potential cleanup technology for the removal of heavy metals from contaminated soils.Bidens maximowicziana is a new Pb hyperaccumulator,which not only has remarkable tolerance to Pb but also extraordinary accumulation capacity for Pb.The maximum Pb concentration was 1509.3 mg/kg in roots and 2164.7 mg/kg in overground tissues.The Pb distribution order in the B. maximowicziana was:leaf>stem>root.The effect of amendments on phytoremediation was also studied.The mobility of soil Pb and the Pb concentrations in plants were both increased by EDTA application.Compared with CK(control check),EDTA application promoted translocation of Pb to overground parts of the plant.The Pb concentrations in overground parts of plants was increased from 24.23-680.56 mg/kg to 29.07-1905.57 mg/kg.This research demonstrated that B.maximowicziana appeared to be suitable for phytoremediation of Pb contaminated soil,especially,combination with EDTA.     

Distribution and ecological effect of mercury in Laogang landfill, Shanghai, China

Laogang landfill near Shanghai is the largest landfill in China, and receives about 10000 t of daily garbage per day, Samples of topsoil and plants were analyzed to evaluate mercury pollution from the landfill. For topsoil samples, there were significant correlations among total mercury （HgT）, combinative mercury （Hgc） and gaseous mercury （HgG）, and content of total organic carbon （TOC）, but, no significantly relationship was found between Hg content and filling time. Hg content changes in vertical profiles with time showed that the average Hgv of profiles 1992, 1996, and 2000 was similar, but their average HgG was quite different. HgT was significantly correlated with Hgc in profile 1992 and 2000, and Hgv was significantly correlated with Hg6 in profile 1996. HgG/Hgv ratio in profile samples decreased in the order of （HgG,/HgT）1992〉（HgG/HgT）1996〉〉（HgG/HgT）2000. A simple outline of Hg release in landfill could be drawn： with increasing of filling time, degradation undergoes different biodegradation, accordingly, gaseous mercury goes through small, more, and small proportion to total mercury. Distribution of Hg in plants was inhomogeneous, following the order of leaf〉root〉stem. The highest value of leaf may be associated with higher atmospheric Hg from landfill. Ligneous plants （e.g. Phyllostachys glanca, Prunus salicina and Ligustrum lucidum） are capable of enriching more Hg than herbaceous plants.     

Arsenic uptake by arbuscular mycorrhizal maize （Zea mays L.） grown in an arsenic-contaminated soil with added phosphorus

The effects of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungus (Glomus mosseae) and phosphorus (P) addition (100 mg/kg soil) on arsenic (As) uptake by maize plants (Zea mays L.) from an As-contaminated soil were examined in a glasshouse experiment.Non-mycorrhizal and zero-P addition controls were included.Plant biomass and concentrations and uptake of As,P,and other nutrients,AM colonization,root lengths,and hyphal length densities were determined.The results indicated that addition of P significantly inhibited root colonization and development of extraradical mycelium.Root length and dry weight both increased markedly with mycorrhizal colonization under the zero-P treatments,but shoot and root biomass of AM plants was depressed by P application.AM fungal inoculation decreased shoot As concentrations when no P was added,and shoot and root As concentrations of AM plants increased 2.6 and 1.4 times with P addition,respectively.Shoot and root uptake of P,Mn,Cu,and Zn increased,but shoot Fe uptake decreased by 44.6%,with inoculation, when P was added.P addition reduced shoot P,Fe,Mn,Cu,and Zn uptake of AM plants,but increased root Fe and Mn uptake of the nonmycorrhizal ones.AM colonization therefore appeared to enhance plant tolerance to As in low P soil,and have some potential for the phytostabilization of As-contaminated soil,however,P application may introduce additional environmental risk by increasing soil As mobility.     

Enzymatic oxidation of aqueous pentachlorophenol

The influence of the nonionic surfactant Tween 80 on pentachlorophenol （PCP） oxidation catalyzed by horseradish peroxidase was studied. The surfactant was tested at concentrations below and above its critical micelle concentration （CMC）. Enhancement of PCP removal was observed at sub-CMCs. The presence of Tween 80 in the reaction mixture reduced enzyme inactivation which occurred through a combination of free radical attack and sorption by precipitated products. A simple first-order model was able to simulate time profiles for enzyme inactivation in the presence or absence of Tween 80. At supra-CMCs, the surfactant caused noticeable reductions in PCP removal, presumably through micelle partitioning of PCP which precluded the hydrophobic PCP molecule from interacting with the enzyme.     

Decomposition of alachlor by ozonation and its mechanism

Decomposition and corresponding mechanism of alachlor, an endocrine disruptor in water by ozonation were investigated. Results showed that alachlor could not be completely mineralized by ozone alone. Many intermediates and final products were formed during the process, including aromatic compounds, aliphatic carboxylic acids, and inorganic ions. In evoluting these products, some of them with weak polarity were qualitatively identified by GC-MS. The information of inorganic ions suggested that the dechlorination was the first and the fastest step in the ozonation of alachlor.     

Degradation of metabolites accumulated of benzo[a]pyrene by coupling Penicillium Chrysogenum with KMnO4

Several main metabolites of benzo[a]pyrene （BaP） formed by Penicillium chrysogenum, Benzo[a]pyrene-1,6-quinone （BP 1,6- quinone）, trans-7,8-dihydroxy-7,8-dihydrobenzo[a]pyrene （BP 7,8-diol）, 3-hydroxybenzo[a]pyrene （3-OHBP）, were identified by high-performance liquid chromatography （HPLC）. The three metabolites were liable to be accumulated and were hardly further metabolized because of their toxicity to microorganisms. However, their further degradation was essential for the complete degradation of BaP. To enhance their degradation, two methods, degradation by coupling Penicillium chrysogenum with KMnO4 and degradation only by Penicillium chrysogenum, were compared; Meanwhile, the parameters of degradation in the superior method were optimized. The results showed that （1） the method of coupling Penicillium chrysogenum with KMnO4 was better and was the first method to be used in the degradation of BaP and its metabolites; （2） the metabolite, BP 1,6-quinone was the most liable to be accumulated in pure cultures; （3） the effect of degradation was the best when the concentration of KMnO4 in the cultures was 0.01% （w/v）, concentration of the three compounds was 5 mg/L and pH was 6.2. Based on the experimental results, a novel concept with regard to the bioremediation of BaP-contaminated environment was discussed, considering the influence on environmental toxicity of the accumulated metabolites.     

Impact of atrazine and nitrogen fertilizers on the sorption of chlorotoluron in soil and model sorbents

Sorption of chlorotoluron in ammonium sulfate, urea and atrazine multi-solutes system was investigated by batch experiments. The results showed application of nitrogen fertilizers to the soil could affect the behavior of chlorotoluron. At the same concentration of N, sorption of chlorotoluron decreased as the concentration of atrazine increased on the day 0 and 6 in soil, respectively. The sorption of chlorotoluron increased from 0 to 6 d when soils were preincubated with deionized water, ammonium sulfate and urea solution for 6 d. That indicated incubation time was one of the most important factors for the sorption of chlorotoluron in nitrogen fertilizers treatments. The individual sorption isotherms of chlorotoluron in rubbery polymer and silica were strictly linear in single solute system, but there were competition sorption between pesticides or between pesticides and nitrogen fertilizers. That indicated the sorption taken place by concurrent solid-phase dissolution mechanism and sorption on the interface of water-organic matter or water-mineral matter.