Landscape Evolution Modelling of naturally dammed rivers

Natural damming of upland river systems, such as landslide or lava damming, occurs worldwide. Many dams fail shortly after their creation, while other dams are long‐lived and therefore have a long‐term impact on fluvial and landscape evolution. This long‐term impact is still poorly understood and landscape evolution modelling (LEM) can increase our understanding of different aspects of this response. Our objective was to simulate fluvial response to damming, by monitoring sediment redistribution and river profile evolution for a range of geomorphic settings. We used LEM LAPSUS, which calculates runoff erosion and deposition and can deal with non‐spurious sinks, such as dam‐impounded areas. Because fluvial dynamics under detachment‐limited and transport‐limited conditions are different, we mimicked these conditions using low and high erodibility settings, respectively. To compare the relative impact of different dam types, we evaluated five scenarios for each landscape condition: one scenario without a dam and four scenarios with dams of increasing erodibility. Results showed that dam‐related sediment storage persisted at least until 15 000 years for all dam scenarios. Incision and knickpoint retreat occurred faster in the detachment‐limited landscape than in the transport‐limited landscape. Furthermore, in the transport‐limited landscape, knickpoint persistence decreased with increasing dam erodibility. Stream capture occurred only in the transport‐limited landscape due to a persisting floodplain behind the dam and headward erosion of adjacent channels. Changes in sediment yield variation due to stream captures did occur but cannot be distinguished from other changes in variation of sediment yield. Comparison of the model results with field examples indicates that the model reproduces several key phenomena of damming response in both transport‐limited and detachment‐limited landscapes. We conclude that a damming event which occurred 15 000 years ago can influence present‐day sediment yield, profile evolution and stream patterns. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater Model Simulations of Stakeholder-Identified Scenarios in a High-Conflict Irrigated Area

This study investigated collaborative groundwater-flow modeling and scenario analysis in the Little Plover River basin, Wisconsin, USA where an unconfined aquifer supplies groundwater for agricultural irrigation, industrial processing, municipal water supply, and stream baseflow. We recruited stakeholders with diverse interests to identify, prioritize, and evaluate scenarios defined as management changes to the landscape. Using a groundwater flow model, we simulated the top 10 stakeholder-ranked scenarios under historically informed dry, average, and wet weather conditions and evaluated the ability of scenarios to meet government-defined stream flow performance measures. Results show that multiple changes to the landscape are necessary to maintain optimum stream flow, particularly during dry years. Yet, when landscape changes from three scenarios—transferring water from the local waste water treatment plant to basin headwaters, moving municipal wells further from the river and downstream, and converting 240 acre (97 ha) of irrigated land to unirrigated land—were simulated in combination, the probability of meeting or exceeding optimum flows rose to 75, 65, and 34% at upper, mid, and lower stream gages, respectively, in dry climate conditions. Discussions with stakeholders reveal that the collaborative model and scenario analysis process resulted in social learning that built upon the existing complex and dynamic institutional landscape. The approach provided a forum for solution-based discussions, and the model served as an important mediation tool for the development and evaluation of community-defined scenarios in a high conflict environment. Today, stakeholders continue to work collaboratively to overcome challenges and implement voluntary solutions in the basin.     

MODELING STUDY ON SEDIMENTATION CONFIGURATION IN FRONT OF THE DAM AND IN THE PRESSURE CONDUIT OF BOTTOM OUTLETS BY FLUME EXPERIMENT

I.INTRODUCTIONReseri,oirsonoverloadedriverswillreachthestateofrelativeequilibriumwithcontinuousdevelopmentofsedimentation.Insuchcase,thereisdePOsitinfrontofthedam.Thereforethesiltpressureonthedambodyisconsiderablylarge.Sedimentationelevationinfrontofthedamisoneofthefactorsofcalculatingthesiltpressure.Inaddition,tokeeplong-termworkingstorageinreservoif,itisnecessarytoinstallbottomoutlets.Asthereisapressureconduitinfrontoftheoperatinggateofthebottomoutlet,thesedimelltenteredtheconduitwill…     

The relative impact of climate change and urban expansion on peak flows: a case study in central Belgium

An essential part of hydrological research focuses on hydrological extremes, such as river peak flows and associated floods, because of their large impact on economy, environment, and human life. These extremes can be affected by potential future environmental change, including global climate change and land cover change. In this paper, the relative impact of both climate change and urban expansion on the peak flows and flood extent is investigated for a small‐scale suburban catchment in Belgium. A rainfall‐runoff model was coupled to a hydrodynamic model in order to simulate the present‐day and future river streamflow. The coupled model was calibrated based on a series of measured water depths and, after model validation, fed with different climate change and urban expansion scenarios in order to evaluate the relative impact of both driving factors on the peak flows and flood extent. The three climate change scenarios that were used (dry, wet winter, wet summer) were based on a statistical downscaling of 58 different RCM and GCM scenario runs. The urban expansion scenarios were based on three different urban growth rates (low, medium, high urban expansion) that were set up by means of an extrapolation of the observed trend of urban expansion. The results suggest that possible future climate change is the main source of uncertainty affecting changes in peak flow and flood extent. The urban expansion scenarios show a more consistent trend. The potential damage related to a flood is, however, mainly influenced by land cover changes that occur in the floodplain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling long‐term (300 ka) upland catchment response to multiple lava damming events

Landscapes respond in complex ways to external drivers such as base level change due to damming events. In this study, landscape evolution modelling was used to understand and analyse long‐term catchment response to lava damming events. PalaeoDEM reconstruction of a small Turkish catchment (45 km²) that endured multiple lava damming events in the past 300 ka, was used to derive long‐term net erosion rates. These erosion rates were used for parameter calibration and led to a best fit parameter set. This optimal parameter set was used to compare net erosion landscape time series of four scenarios: (i) no uplift and no damming events; (ii) no uplift and three damming events; (iii) uplift and no damming events; and (iv) uplift and three damming events. Spatial evolution of net erosion and sediment storage of scenario (iii) and (iv) were compared. Simulation results demonstrate net erosion differences after 250 000 years between scenarios with and without dams. Initially, trunk gullies show less net erosion in the scenario with damming events compared with the scenario without damming events. This effect of dampened erosion migrates upstream to smaller gullies and local slopes. Finally, an intrinsic incision pulse in the dam scenario results in a higher net erosion of trunk gullies while decoupled local slopes are still responding to the pre‐incision landscape conditions. Sediment storage differences also occur on a 100 ka scale. These differences behaved in a complex manner owing to different timings of the migration of erosion and sediment waves along the gullies for each scenario. Although the specific spatial and temporal sequence of erosion and deposition events is sensitive to local parameters, this model study shows the manner in which past short‐lived events like lava dams have long‐lasting effects on catchment evolution. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of climate change on suspended sediment transport in Danish rivers

The HIRHAM regional climate model suggests an increase in temperature in Denmark of about 3 °C and an increase in mean annual precipitation of 6–7%, with a larger increase during winter and a decrease during summer between a control period 1961–1990 and scenario period 2071–2100. This change of climate will affect the suspended sediment transport in rivers, directly through erosion processes and increased river discharges and indirectly through changes in land use and land cover. Climate‐change‐induced changes in suspended sediment transport are modelled for five scenarios on the basis of modelled changes in land use/land cover for two Danish river catchments: the alluvial River Ansager and the non‐alluvial River Odense. Mean annual suspended sediment transport is modelled to increase by 17% in the alluvial river and by 27% in the non‐alluvial for steady‐state scenarios. Increases by about 9% in the alluvial river and 24% in the non‐alluvial river were determined for scenarios incorporating a prolonged growing season for catchment vegetation. Shortening of the growing season is found to have little influence on mean annual sediment transport. Mean monthly changes in suspended sediment transport between ? 26% and + 68% are found for comparable suspended sediment transport scenarios between the control and the scenario periods. The suspended sediment transport increases during winter months as a result of the increase in river discharge caused by the increase in precipitation, and decreases during summer and early autumn months. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the impact of recent land‐cover changes on the stream flows in northeastern Puerto Rico

We investigated the influence of recent and future land‐cover changes on stream flow of a watershed northeastern Puerto Rico using hydrological modeling and simulation analysis. Monthly and average annual stream flows were compared between an agricultural period (1973–1980) and an urbanized/reforested period (1988–1995) using the revised Generalized Watershed Loading Function model. Our validated results show that a smaller proportion of rainfall became stream flows in the urbanized/forested period compared with the agricultural period, apparently because of reforestation. Sensitivity analysis of the model showed that evapotranspiration, precipitation, and curve number were the most significant factors influencing stream flow. Simulations of projected land‐cover scenarios indicate that annual stream flows would increase by 9·6% in a total urbanization scenario, decrease by 3·6% in a total reforestation scenario, and decrease by 1·1% if both reforestation and urbanization continue at their current rates to 2020. An imposed hurricane event that was similar in scale to the largest recent event on the three land‐cover scenarios would increase the daily stream flow by 62·1%, 68·4% and 67·1% respectively. Owing to the environmental setting of eastern Puerto Rico, where sea breezes caused by temperature differences between land surface and the ocean dominate the local climate, we suggest that managing local land‐cover changes can have important consequences for water management. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PMP and PMF estimations in sparsely-gauged Andean basins and climate change projections

Abstract

Mixed-regime Andean basins present a complex scenario for flood analysis. In this study, we propose a methodology for incorporating orographic effects influenced by mountainous barriers in the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation method in sparsely-gauged basins. The proposed methodology is applied to the Puclaro Reservoir basin in Chile, which is affected by the Andes. The PMP estimations were calculated by applying statistical and hydrometeorological approaches to the baseline (1960–1999) and climate change scenarios (2045–2065) determined from projections of the ECHAM5 general circulation model. Temperature projections for the 2040–2065 period show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase in the average liquid precipitation over the basin. Temperature projections would also affect the maximization factors in the calculation of the PMP, as precipitable water content, raising it to 126.6% and 62.5% under scenarios A2 and B1, respectively; the probable maximum flood (PMF) would increase to +175.5% under the A2 scenario. These projections would affect the safety of dam design and would be generalizable to zones with similar mixed hydrology and climate change projections. We propose that the methodology presented could be also applied to basins with similar characteristics.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Porporato     

Simulated effects of cropland expansion on seasonal temperatures over China

Human activities result in deforestation, expansion of cropland, grassland degradation, urbanization and other large-scale land use/cover change; among these, cropland expansion is one of the most important processes. To understand the effects of cropland expansion on seasonal temperatures over China, two 21-year simulations (spanning January 1, 1980–December 31, 2000), using the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS 2.0), were performed. The two simulations comprised current realistic land use/cover patterns and the previous vegetation cover without crop expansion, to investigate the impact of crop expansion on seasonal temperatures over China. The results showed that due to cropland expansion: (1) the most obvious changes occurred in the maximum temperatures, followed by the mean surface air temperatures, and the minimum temperatures were the least affected; (2) the summer mean maximum temperatures decreased in most parts of eastern China, and the temperatures changed significantly in most parts of northeast China, north China and central China (p < 0.05); (3) the surface air temperatures, maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures in summer decreased in the different regions by between −0.03 and −0.76 °C (the greatest temperature changes occurred in southwest China, and the smallest were in northeast China); (4) the net radiation flux and latent heat flux increased, while the sensible flux decreased, when semi-desert vegetation was replaced by dry land crops, in both summer and winter seasons, and the converse occurred when irrigated crops were replaced by dry land crops. In addition, the net radiation flux and sensible heat flux decreased, and the latent heat flux increased when short grass and tall grass were replaced dry land crops, as well as when dry land crops were replaced by irrigated crops.     

Modeling the impacts of policy interventions from REDD+ in Southeast Asia: A case study in Indonesia

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and enhancing “removals of greenhouse gas emissions by forests” in developing countries through positive incentives is regarded as an essential component of the post-2012 climate regime for stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and an important way of engaging developing countries in global mitigation efforts. We aimed to evaluate the potential effectiveness of REDD+ by integrating it into a land use option framework. One of our goals was to develop scenarios for evaluating the impacts of land use changes on carbon and environmental processes. In addition, we aimed to quantify the potential economic benefits to society of compensated reductions and to identify hotspots for applying REDD+. Three land use change scenarios were examined: (I) business as usual (BAU), (II) economic development, and (III) REDD+. A case study in Indonesia was examined using these land use scenarios and policy interventions, evaluating their effects on carbon emissions, socioeconomics, and environmental features of a spatial system using land use models. Significant emissions and water erosion reductions were predicted to be achieved under the REDD+ scenario, due to reduced deforestation of <6% over the next decade; >0.14 Mt CO₂e reduction was predicted relative to the BAU scenario. Furthermore, the spatial land use model indicated that REDD+ payments of forest carbon credits in the compliance market would play a key role in compensating rural communities and plantation companies for their opportunity cost in ending deforestation. This study provides an example of integrating land use modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to evaluate the potential impacts of REDD+.     

Stratification of Horizons in Bottom Sediments of the Rybinsk Reservoir

Physical properties of cores taken from sediments in the channel zone of the Volga Stretch in the Rybinsk Reservoir are studied. The physical properties of the sediments are shown to be related to the evolution of geomorphological processes and the amount of organic matter in the sediment. Variations in the physical properties were used to recognize synchronous formation of sediment horizons corresponding to certain formation stages of the reservoir soil complex and anomalous environmental and climatic events. Three stages of channel sedimentation are established based on characteristic behavior of magnetic parameters and organic matter content. The magnetic parameters of sediments are shown to allow data reconstruction on some environmental and hydrological processes.     

An isotopic model for the origin of autochthonous organic matter contained in the bottom sediments of a reservoir

Geochemical analysis of surface sediment samples collected in 2005 and 2006 was used to evaluate the potential sources of the organic matter present in sediments of southeast Poland's Solina Reservoir.Statistical analysis of sediment variables(carbon to nitrogen ratio, and the carbon 13 and nitrogen 15 isotope ratios) determined for the organic fraction indicated significant spatial variability with respect to sources of organic matter. A binary mixing model was developed from literature sources to predict the relative contributions of allochthonous and autochthonous production to sediment organic matter.Autochthonous production was shown to account for 60-75% of bulk sedimentation in the lacustrine parts of the reservoir, near the dam. In contrast, autochthonous production accounted for only 25% of sedimentation in the riverine zone receiving stream inputs. Statistical analysis identified the δ~(15)N of organic matter as the best predictor of the source of organic matter. Multiple regression analysis indicated that two water-quality variables(nitrate and dissolved silica) were significantly related to the δ~(15)N signature of organic matter. This led to a conclusion that limnetic nitrate and dissolved silica concentrations were regulating organic matter production in the Solina Reservoir.     

Evaluating hydrologic effects of spatial and temporal patterns of forest canopy change using numerical modelling

Although hydrologic responses to land cover changes are often studied using a paired watershed approach, it is not feasible to assess the hydrological effects of many different patterns of land cover alteration by empirical studies alone. An alternative is to use well validated, spatially explicit, physically based numerical models to estimate watershed storage and flux dynamics. The objectives of this study were to assess the sensitivity of watershed flow regimes to several spatial and temporal patterns of forest harvest and recovery in a snow‐dominated mountain watershed. The Distributed Hydrology Soil‐Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was parameterized using 1998–2007 climate data for the 28‐km² Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW), a headwater catchment in the inland Pacific Northwest. The modelling experiment indicated that clear‐cutting the entire watershed would increase runoff volume by 79% and 5^th percentile flows by 68%. Hydrologic recovery resulting from forest regeneration after clear‐cut harvesting is expected to take up to 25 years to return to baseline conditions, and 50 years to fully recover to preharvest conditions. A more realistic harvesting scenario where the watershed was gradually harvested in a series of clear‐cut blocks allowing for subsequent regeneration to occur was also assessed. This approach reduced the magnitude of hydrologic alteration. Analysis of several other scenarios, defined by aspect, elevation, and distance to the stream network, revealed that flow regime was more sensitive to the amount of alteration rather than pattern and landscape position of disturbance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water balance components estimation under scenarios of land cover change in the Vea catchment,West Africa

ABSTRACT

The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment.     

Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes

The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Quantitative reconstruction of Late Cenozoic landscapes: a case study in the Sierra de Atapuerca (Burgos,Spain)

We have developed a method to reconstruct palaeorelief by means of detailed geomorphological and geological studies, geostatistical tools, GIS and a DEM. This method has been applied to the Sierra de Atapuerca (NE Duero Basin, Burgos, Spain), allowing us to model a three‐dimensional reconstruction of the relief evolution from the Middle Miocene to the present. The modelling procedure is based on geostatistical recovery of the palaeosurfaces characteristic of each geomorphological evolution stage, using polynomial regressions, trend surfaces and kriging. The modelling of morphology trends has been useful in establishing new geological and geomorphological relationships in the geodynamic evolution of this basin, such as uplift quantification, correlation of erosion surfaces and sedimentary units, and the evolution of fluvial base levels. The palaeosurface reconstruction together with an analysis of the slope retreat have allowed us to reconstruct the palaeoreliefs that define the Late Cenozoic landscape evolution of this area, where the Lower and Middle Pleistocene archaeopalaeontological sites of the Sierra de Atapuerca are located. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adjustments in channel morphology due to land‐use changes and check dam installation in mountain torrents of Calabria (southern Italy)

In Mediterranean semi‐arid conditions, the availability of studies monitoring channel adjustments as a response to reforestation and check dams over representative observation periods, could help develop new management strategies. This investigation is an integrated approach assessing the adjustments of channel morphology in a typical torrent of southern Italy after land‐use changes and check dam construction across a period of about 60 years. A statistical analysis of historical rainfall records, an analysis of land‐use changes in the catchment area and a geomorphological mapping of channel adjustments were carried out and combined with field surveys of bed surface grain‐size over a 5‐km reach including 14 check dams. The analysis of the historical rainfall records showed a slight decrease in the amount and erosivity of precipitation. Mapping of land‐use changes highlighted a general increase of vegetal coverage on the slopes adjacent to the monitored reaches. Together with the check dam network installation, this increase could have induced a reduction in water and sediment supply. The different erosional and depositional forms and adjustments showed a general narrowing between consecutive check dams together with local modifications detected upstream (bed aggradation and cross‐section expansion together with low‐flow realignments) and downstream (local incision) of the installed check dams. Changes in the torrent bends were also detected as a response to erosional and depositional processes with different intensities. The study highlighted: the efficiency of check dams against the disrupting power of intense floods by stabilizing the active channel and the influence of reforestation in increasing hillslope protection from erosion and disconnectivity of water and sediment flows towards the active channel. Only slight management interventions (for instance, the conversion of the existing check dams into open structures) are suggested, in order to mobilize the residual sediment avoiding further generalized incision of the active channel and coast line erosion. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于BTOPMC模型的土地覆被变化径流响应模拟

为分析土地覆被变化的水文效应.构建4种土地覆被情景,采用BTOPMC模型对淮河流域黄泥庄集水区1982-1986年的日径流过程进行模拟.结果表明,土地覆被变化对蒸散发量和径流量计算影响显著,与现状覆被情景的模拟结果相比,森林覆被情景蒸散发量增加,径流量减少,而林地草原和耕地覆被情景下情况相反,且各土地覆被变化情景下枯季径流深的变化幅度明显小于雨季的变化幅度.该模型能较好地分析和评价土地覆被变化下的径流响应.     

The concept of hydrological connectivity and its contribution to understanding runoff‐dominated geomorphic systems

The term ‘connectivity’ is increasingly being applied in hydrological and geomorphological studies. Relevant research encompasses aspects of landscape connectivity, hydrological connectivity and sedimentological connectivity. Unlike other disciplines, notably ecology, published studies show no consensus on a standard definition. This paper provides an overview of how existing research relates to the concept of connectivity in both ecology and hydrology by proposing and evaluating a conceptual model of hydrological connectivity that includes five major components: climate; hillslope runoff potential; landscape position; delivery pathway and lateral connectivity. We also evaluate a proposed measure of connectivity called the volume to breakthrough to quantify changing connectivity between different environments and catchments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.