Age articulation of U.S. inter-metropolitan migration flows

A fundamental divide in migration research has existed between aggregate studies of movement among geographic regions and micro studies of individual migrant behavior. Micro-scale studies have highlighted the importance of stage of life-cycle in predicting movement propensities, whereas many aggregate studies have focused on age-aggregated data summed over all origins for in-migration and over all destinations for out-migration. In this paper we show that if data for functional metropolitan-centered regions are employed, and if origin-destination specific streams of movement are analyzed, the age-specific patterns of inter-metropolitan migration within the United States cluster into distinctive patterns of flow representative of key stages of the life-course. In order to expose and portray a rich, age-articulated geography of U.S. migration we aggregate county-to-county migration flow data from the 1990 census for extended metropolitan regions: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Economic Areas. We calculate destination-specific out-migration rates broken down into 17 age groups for each origin-destination-specific migration stream between pairs of Economic Areas and present the results of a factor analysis of these flow-specific age profiles. We use the factor scores to cluster the very large number of origin-destination-specific age profiles and find that seven characteristic types emerge reflecting key mobility stages of the life course. We analyze the distinctive characteristics of the migration flows in each cluster and based on the prevalence of flows of each type within streams of gross in- and gross out-migration we present a typology of the 172 BEA Economic Areas. Our conclusion is that better understanding the age articulation of origin-destination-specific flow patterns would help advance regional science migration research. Received: January 2001/Accepted: June 2002 Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 47^th North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Chicago, Illinois, USA, November 9–12, 2000 and at the 12^th International Symposium Hosted by the Executive Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Science Conference Organization, Tokyo, Japan, October 1–3, 2000. The authors thank Joseph Persky, Roger Bolton, Hiroyuki Shibusawa, and Roger Stough for helpful suggestions made at those two presentations. The authors gratefully acknowledge the expert computer programming assistance of Lucy M. Carruthers of the Center for Computing and Information Technology of the University of Arizona. We also thank Chris Henrie, Ph.D. student, University of Arizona, for constructing our base map of BEA Economic Areas. Frank Heins would like to thank the National Research Council of Italy (Short-term Mobility Program 1999) for financially supporting a stay at the Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona. During his stay the groundwork for this research was laid. David Plane would like to acknowledge the support of the Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau for his 2001–2002 academic year visiting research position during which the final analyses and revisions were made.     

Spatial markets and the potential for economic integration between Canadian and U.S. regions

The potential for further economic integration among Canadian and American regions is measured by comparing province-to-state trade with state-to-state trade, where the latter is used as a benchmark of integration. To accomplish this, an attraction constrained gravity model is derived from micro foundations and estimated. The analysis demonstrates that after controlling for variations in output, distance, wages, productivity, and localization economies, the border remains a significant barrier to trade, although much less than previous estimates of the border effect using internal Canadian trade as a benchmark. The model's results also indicate that the border's influence varies across sectors, and the influence appears to be, in part, related to the presence of tariff and non-tariff barriers. Received: 1 February 1999 / Accepted: 8 August 2000     

Monopolistic competition, increasing returns, agglomeration, and transport costs

This paper presents a model where production concentrated in one place is compared with dispersed production. Concentrated production can attain a higher level of productivity but must incur transport costs. Dispersed production, on the other hand, has a lower productivity level but need no transportation. In order to avoid unnecessary complications, output per capita is used as an objective function. Transport cost is measured in units of output and will therefore affect the objective function directly. The model uses a linkage approach where a final output is produced under constant returns to scale. This production has increasing returns to the number of differentiated inputs. The differentiated intermediate inputs are produced subject to increasing returns to scale in a framework of Chamberlinian monopolistic competition. The size of the market determines the number of intermediate inputs that the local economy can accommodate. In this way the model formalises Adam Smith's theorem on the division of labour being limited by the extent of the market. The paper examines how the break-even point between the two ways of organising production is affected by (i) changes in transport cost and market density and (ii) shifts in technology for producers of intermediaries and the final output. Received: December 1999/Accepted: January 2001     

Part-time workers and economic expansion: comparing the 1980s and 1990s with U.S. state data

Economists know little about how the role of part-time workers affect regional labor market dynamics during economic expansion. This study examines this issue using U.S. state data from the 1980s and 1990s. Compared to the 1980s, the labor market during the late 1990s is associated with widespread labor shortages, making this an excellent comparison of how part-time employment responds to economic growth. One key finding is that part-time employment was less responsive to job growth during the 1990s than the 1980s, especially for women. Several explanations are put forth, including firm responses to labor shortages, employer perceptions of inferior part-time worker characteristics and welfare reform. Received: 30 March 2001/Accepted: 20 November 2001 RID="*" ID="*" The author thanks ?rn Bodvarsson, Jamie Partridge and session participants at the 2001 Mid Continent Regional Science Association Meeting for their useful comments and suggestions.     

Factor distribution, capital intensity and spatial agglomeration

This paper investigates the effect of capital on agglomeration behavior within a framework of the core-periphery model. Capital is interregionally mobile in the short-run, whereas labor is mobile in the long-run. In conclusion, (i) capital and industries are distributed among regions more equally than workers when transport costs are sufficiently high, and the relation is reversed when transport costs are sufficiently low; (ii) a rise in capital intensity stimulates agglomeration in the economy.Received: July 2003/Accepted: February 2004I am indebted to Professors M. Fujita and K. Yamamoto for valuable comments on an earlier draft. I also wish to thank Professors T. Mori, T. Kinugasa, T. Kuroda, M. Makabenta and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions.     

Multiple equilibria, stability, and asymmetries in Krugman's core-periphery model

Paul Krugman developed a general equilibrium model with two sectors and two regions in 1991, from which two patterns of industrial localization could be endogenously deduced, dispersion at 50% and total concentration. The introduction of transport costs, which depend on the size of the population, are meant to capture effects produced by the trade-off between congestion costs and advantages derived from the possession of infrastructure, thus generates stable asymmetric multiple equilibria. The outcome of asymmetric stable multiple equilibria demonstrates the fruitfulness of this extension of the original model. Received: 23 June 1998 / Accepted: 5 October 1999     

Time distances and labor market integration

This article investigates how time distances within and between municipalities determine the spatial extent of local and regional labor markets. As time distances change, the extent of the labor market will also change. Diminishing time distances will bring about increases in labor market size by integrating formerly spatially separate markets. We analyze such processes using accessibility measures derived from a random choice preference function approach. Accessibility is measured in terms of number of jobs, labor supply and supply of service functions. The aim of the work is to illustrate the usefulness of the purpose-specific accessibility measure we introduce.     

Trade policy and regional inequalities

This article aims to analyze the effects of trade policies on the pattern of regional inequalities within a country. It is inspired, firstly, by the debate concerning the role of protectionist policies in the development of a pattern of striking regional inequalities during the Spanish industrialization process and, secondly, by current evidence of an increase in these inequalities following Spain's entry in the EU, in 1986. We employ an economic geography model comprising three regions: two domestic and one external. Labor mobility is permitted between the domestic regions but not with the external region. The model shows that trade liberalization increases regional inequalities. Received: 4 March 1999 / Accepted: 17 February 2000     

Firm relocation decisions in The Netherlands: An ordered logit approach

This article explores the determinants of firm migration in The Netherlands. First, based on the existing literature a theoretical framework is developed. Second, based on aggregate data firm relocation processes in The Netherlands are discussed in terms of numbers, sectoral composition, origins and destinations (regions), distance moved and employments effects. In the third part a formal model will be tested using individual data of firms. The relocation decisions of individual firms will be related to firm and location characteristics by means of an ordered logit model. The results indicate that the decision to relocate is mainly determined by firm internal factors and to a lesser extent by site related factors. Received 1 July 1999 / Accepted 28 November 1999     

The spatial distribution of new technology-based firms: Empirical results for West-Germany

The focus of the article is to shed some more light on the spatial distribution of new technology-based firms (NTBF) and to discuss location factors which may contribute to the explanation of the variation in the incidence of NTBF between the West-German districts (“Kreise”). Based on theoretical models explaining the location decisions of new firms, hypotheses are derived and tested in an empirical model. The regression results indicate strong correlations between the occurrence of NTBF and the proximity to Research and Development (R&D) facilities comprising universities, technical colleges and non-university institutes as well as private R&D. As expected, the impact of the various facilities varies with respect to their field of specialization, showing major positive correlations with respect to technical disciplines. Moreover, the estimates reveal out differences due to spatial characteristics such as infrastructure and other structural factors. Received: 26 April 1999 / Accepted: 28 November 1999     

The effect of unemployment, aggregate wages, and spatial contiguity on local wages: An investigation with German district level data

Despite spatial rigidity of collectively negotiated wages the local unemployment rate is found to have a significant negative impact on wages. This impact is shown to be consistent with both the wage-curve hypothesis and modern Phillips-curve modelling. Spatial contiguity effects are found in wages and unemployment and their neglect leads to an underestimation of the effect of local unemployment. Yet, the impact of local unemployment on wages turns out to be quite low as compared to studies for other countries. Some support for the hypothesis that negotiated wages suppress spatial wage flexibility comes from the finding that the impact of local unemployment on local wages decreases with its extent. Received: 13 December 1996 / Accepted: 8 June 1998     

Modelling residential location choice in an area with spatial barriers

A model is presented for residential location choice in rural areas with spatial barriers. We address the problem through comparative static analysis focusing on how residential location choices are affected by a new road link across the spatial barrier. We proceed through a probability theoretical approach: choose a family of utility functions representing every possible location, and equip this family with a probability measure. Then choose a representative within an equivalence class of utility functions, and represent the probability distribution by a parametrized family of distributions. Our analysis demonstrates that investments in new road links do not necessarily represent an adequate instrument for achieving ambitions in regional policy. We identify reasonable situations where a new road link could just as easily generate net migration from the area in which the investments are directed. In general, our analysis demonstrates how agglomeration and centralisation tendencies can be considerably affected by transportation infrastructure innovations. Received: June 1999/Accepted: June 2001 This paper benefited from comments by Bj?rn Sandvik and Lars-G?ran Mattsson.     

Urban agglomeration: Knowledge spillovers and product diversity

There is no doubt that people like to migrate to large cities because they can acquire a wider range of products and jobs, but also because they can more easily exchange information and ideas. In this respect, we attempt to explain the formation of metropolitan areas by using a general equilibrium model, in which concentration emerges not only from interaction between increasing returns to scale at firm level, transport costs and labor mobility, but also from human capital externalities. This paper shows that there is new scope for government activity. Received: August 2000/Accepted: January 2002 I am indebted to J.L. Ferreira for valuable comments on an earlier draft. I also wish to thank T. Smith, participants at the ERWIT Workshop and EEA Congress, and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions. Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through DGICYT grant PB98-0613-C02-01, and from the Regional Government of Galicia via PGIDT00PXI30001PN is gratefully acknowledged.     

Social and institutional factors as determinants of economic growth: Evidence from the United States counties

In the search for explanations of persistent differences in economic growth rates, the conditional convergence growth model has introduced the possibility of incorporating a wide set of factors as determinants of growth. Controlling for spatial dependence, we assess the contribution of differences in social and institutional variables on growth rates of per capita income for counties in the United States. The empirical results indicate that, ceteris paribus, social and institutio variables explain some of the differences in convergence rates among counties. In particular, (i) ethnic diversity is associated with faster rates of economic growth; (ii) higher levels of income inequality are associated with lower rates; and (iii) higher levels of social capital have a positive effect on economic growth rates. Received: 14 August 2000 / Accepted: 16 April 2001     

Urban rent and urban dynamics: The determinants of urban development in Italy

Many empirical analyses have proved the existence of an optimal city size through the measurement of economies or diseconomies of scale, generally applied either to the costs of urban services or to elegant econometric estimates of urban and sectoral production functions. But, unfortunately these studies have never produced a common result, and have often been subject to criticism for their restrictive hypotheses. The aim of the present paper is twofold. First of all, urban dynamics in Italy is described through an indicator of urban costs and advantages, i.e. urban rent. House prices are in fact a good indicator of the attraction of an urban area, as they are synthetic and avoid a time lag between the occurrence of phenomena such as demographic change, and the availability of data to capture these phenomena. This study is based on the idea that the difference in house prices between large and small cities is a measure of their relative attraction (and thus their relative location advantage). The second aim is to highlight the determinants of urban dynamics, and especially to understand whether urban development patterns are similar in cities of different size. For this second issue, the paper enters the debate on the existence of an optimal city size for all cities and draws attention to other possible determinanats of urban development. Received: May 2000/Accepted: January 2002     

Explaining the pattern of regional unemployment: The case of the Midi-Pyrénées region

Unemployment rates vary widely at the sub-regional level. We seek to explain why such variation occurs, using data for 174 districts in the Midi-Pyrénées region of France for 1990–1991. A set of explanatory variables is derived from theory and the voluminous literature. The best model includes a correction for spatially autocorrelated errors. Unemployment rates are higher in urban areas and, where per capita income is higher, are consistent with the view that unemployment differences largely reflect variations in “amenities.” Along with a lack of evidence of housing market rigidities, these suggest that subregional variations in unemployment are not mainly the result of labor market disequilibrium. Received: 9 July 1999 / Accepted: 30 October 2001     

Impacts of national development and decentralization policies on regional income disparity in Korea

This paper analyzed the effects of national development and decentralization policies on the regional income disparity in Korea. It also attempted to test whether there was a structural change in the causal relationship between income inequality and its determinant factors. This study found that the degree of variation in regional incomes was positively correlated with the spatial distribution of decentralization instruments such as educational services, employment, infrastructure facilities, and information network variables. The effects of some decentralization policies on regional income inequality were fully realized within a period of three years. Finally, the impacts of the spatial decentralization of public goods on regional inequality fluctuated until the early 1980s but were stabilized as industrial restructuring and spatial reorganization progressed during the 1990s. Received: December 2001/Accepted: June 2002     

The earnings of self-employed Mexican Americans along the U.S.-Mexico border

We utilize data from the 1990 1% Public Use Microdata Sample to analyze the earnings and occupational status of self-employed Mexican Americans in the five major U.S.-Mexico border metropolitan statistical areas (Brownsville, El Paso, Laredo, and McAllen in Texas, and San Diego, California) relative to those in non-border cities. Our findings suggest that self-employed Mexican American men earned significantly less in Texas-Mexico border cities than in other areas on average, while the earnings of self-employed Mexican American women did not significantly vary between border and non-border cities. We also find evidence that these earnings differentials may be related to differences in self-employment selection and occupational choice. As such, “across the board” policies designed to foster self-employment may not have the desired effect of boosting economic prosperity unless consideration is given to the socioeconomic and demographic composition of the region as well as to the specific occupational sector. Received: June 2000/Accepted: December 2000     

The regional distribution of Spanish unemployment: A spatial analysis

In this article we propose a set of tools for analysing the regional distribution of unemployment. As we are interested in the characteristics of the distribution as a whole, results from a traditional regression analysis are complemented with those obtained by estimating its external shape before and after being conditioned to factors underlying regional unemployment. In addition, we specifically consider the spatial characteristics of the distribution, and the empirical model we develop to determine explanatory factors includes spatial effects. This framework is applied to the study of the provincial distribution of unemployment rates in Spain. Results point to increasing spatial dependence in the distribution of regional unemployment rates, and a change in the factors causing regional differentials over the last decade.