Tree-ring reconstruction of past debris flows based on a small number of samples—possibilities and limitations

Tree-ring analyses have often been used in the past for the reconstruction of spatiotemporal patterns of previous debris-flow activity, often yielding very precise and extensive data for torrents where information on former activity was largely missing. Unless dendrogeomorphology is slated for multimillion Euro developments, the large sets of tree-ring series that are usually used in these studies render analysis time-consuming and not necessarily very cost-effective. In this study, we present results on past debris flows obtained with 35 Larix decidua Mill. trees growing on the cone of the Torrent de Pétérey (Zinal, Valais, Swiss Alps). It is concluded that studies based on a limited number of samples may yield valuable data on past events, but that the reconstructed frequency remains widely incomplete and indications on the spatial aspects of past events are only fragmentary.     

Rockfall hazard analysis for an historical Castle in Kastamonu (Turkey)

The Kastamonu Castle located on a sandstone hill with Eocene age is one of the most historical and touristic places in Kastamonu city center. The settlement of the city expanded towards the hill of the Kastamonu Castle and adversely affected by rockfalls in the past. The rockfall problems around the castle could be related to jointing, weathering, freezing-thawing and earthquake effects or a combination. In this study, the rockfall hazard at the castle is evaluated by two-dimensional rockfall analyses along 17 profiles selected in different orientations. Different size of rock blocks and various types of movements are taken into consideration in the analyses. Fall-out distance, bounce height, kinetic energy and velocity of the sandstone blocks are separately evaluated. The obtained data are used to define the possible rockfall hazard zones. Finally, the areas having potential rockfall risks are distinguished. Based on the evaluation of the data, rock bolting after removing of unstable blocks and supporting the area with the protective fences are suggested.     

Defining geologic Hazards for natural resources management using tree-ring analysis

Landslides, avalanches, floods, and other geologic hazards impair natural resources management by jeopardizing public safety, damaging or restricting resource utilization, and necessitating expenditures for corrective measures The negative impact of geologic hazard events can be reduced by tailoring resources management to hazard potential of an area This requires assessment of where and how frequently the events occur National forests and other managed wildlands often lack monitoring or historical records to compute frequency of hazard occurrence Tree-ring analysis, based on internal growth response to external events such as tilting and abrasion, can provide frequency data Two examples of the use of tree-ring analysis to date landslide activity illustrate advantages and limitations of the technique An example from the Fishlake National Forest in central Utah illustrates assessment for planning purposes An example from the Sierra National Forest in east-central California shows assessment applied to project design Many geologic hazards in addition to landslides are suited to tree-ring analysis to establish frequency of occurrence Hazard reduction efforts in natural resources management could be enhanced by careful application of tree-ring analysis     

Assessing rockfall susceptibility in steep and overhanging slopes using three-dimensional analysis of failure mechanisms

Rockfalls strongly influence the evolution of steep rocky landscapes and represent a significant hazard in mountainous areas. Defining the most probable future rockfall source areas is of primary importance for both geomorphological investigations and hazard assessment. Thus, a need exists to understand which areas of a steep cliff are more likely to be affected by a rockfall. An important analytical gap exists between regional rockfall susceptibility studies and block-specific geomechanical calculations. Here we present methods for quantifying rockfall susceptibility at the cliff scale, which is suitable for sub-regional hazard assessment (hundreds to thousands of square meters). Our methods use three-dimensional point clouds acquired by terrestrial laser scanning to quantify the fracture patterns and compute failure mechanisms for planar, wedge, and toppling failures on vertical and overhanging rock walls. As a part of this work, we developed a rockfall susceptibility index for each type of failure mechanism according to the interaction between the discontinuities and the local cliff orientation. The susceptibility for slope parallel exfoliation-type failures, which are generally hard to identify, is partly captured by planar and toppling susceptibility indexes. We tested the methods for detecting the most susceptible rockfall source areas on two famously steep landscapes, Yosemite Valley (California, USA) and the Drus in the Mont-Blanc massif (France). Our rockfall susceptibility models show good correspondence with active rockfall sources. The methods offer new tools for investigating rockfall hazard and improving our understanding of rockfall processes.     

2D and 3D rockfall hazard analysis and protection measures for Saptashrungi Gad Temple,Vani, Nashik,Maharashtra – A case study

The Saptashrungi gad temple (SGT) situated on basaltic hills belongs to Deccan volcanic of Upper Cretaceous to Lower Eocene, is one among the 51 Shakti Peeths and most holy place for pilgrims. Rockfall is a major problem in the past and causing danger to the lives of the villagers settled at the toe of the SGT hill as well as the pilgrims who perform parikrama along the tracks. On the evening of 16 April 2011, an old woman died due to rockfall at SGT hill when she was performing parikrama, moreover, two persons got injured during the deliverance process of this old woman from the continuous rockfall activity. The problem of rockfall could be linked to rainfall, jointing, weathering, man-made or the compounding of all. In this research, the rockfall hazard analysis at SGT hill is assessed using both 2D and 3D rockfall programs along the two parikrama paths: Parikrama Path 1 (or the Badi Parikrama Path ‘BPP’), and Parikrama Path 2 (or the Chhoti Parikrama Path ‘CPP’). Also, the study area of the SGT hill has been divided into eight zones (Zone#01 to Zone#08), based on field observations, orientations of joint sets and hill slope faces and eighteen topographic profiles (AA' to RR') have been taken from these eight zones for rockfall analysis. A detailed topographic survey along with field investigation has been carried out along the temple for ascertaining the nature of rock, discontinuity orientations, and slope geometry. DEM has been generated using topographic profile in ArcGIS to facilitate the 3D rockfall analysis. Maximum rock block sizes are taken into the analysis and run-out distance, bounce height, kinetic energy and velocity of the basaltic blocks are evaluated separately. Based on the analyzed data, the rockfall hazard zone map has been prepared and site having potential rockfall risks have been identified. Finally, wire/net meshing has been proposed after removal of unstable blocks as a stabilization and protection measures.It is worth mentioning here that for the first time rockfall hazard assessment was made in such detail for a site. Suggestions made are implemented by the State Government for the protection of the temple as well as the life of pilgrims performing the parikrama from the rockfall.     

尼泊尔某项目滚石灾害的工程地质调查与评价

滚石灾害是山区常见的地质灾害类型,研究滚石的运动特征对地质灾害调查及危险性评估有着重要意义。通过对尼泊尔某项目滚石灾害后现场进行工程地质调查,分析其灾害成因机制,查明事故原因。调查结果表明:9 ·15灾害非人类活动的影响,属自然地质灾害,造成事故的主要原因为超高位岩体崩塌,而滚石的范围又超过前期预测的危险区。通过现场痕迹分析,推测出滚石的运动路径。根据调查出的撞击点位置、物质组成及几何特征,作者提出运用运动学原理还原滚石运动轨迹,并利用rocfall软件对超高位危岩体崩落后的运动轨迹进行随机模拟分析,推算出超高位危岩体崩落后能量大小的变化,为防护措施方案提供可靠的依据。张口式帘式网韧性强,防护能级高,对高陡边坡滚石灾害能起到很好的效果。本文可为类似高陡边坡的危岩治理防护提供参考。     

Multi-scenario Rockfall Hazard Assessment Using LiDAR Data and GIS

Transportation corridors that pass through mountainous or hilly areas are prone to rockfall hazard. Rockfall incidents in such areas can cause human fatalities and damage to properties in addition to transportation interruptions. In Malaysia, the North–South Expressway is the most significant expressway that operates as the backbone of the peninsula. A portion of this expressway in Jelapang was chosen as the site of rockfall hazard assessment in multiple scenarios. Light detection and ranging techniques are indispensable in capturing high-resolution digital elevation models related to geohazard studies. An airborne laser scanner was used to create a high-density point cloud of the study area. The use of 3D rockfall process modeling in combination with geographic information system (GIS) is a beneficial tool in rockfall hazard studies. In this study, a 3D rockfall model integrated into GIS was used to derive rockfall trajectories and velocity associated with them in multiple scenarios based on a range of mechanical parameter values (coefficients of restitution and friction angle). Rockfall characteristics in terms of frequency, height, and energy were determined through raster modeling. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to compute the weight of each rockfall characteristic raster that affects rockfall hazard. A spatial model that considers rockfall characteristics was conducted to produce a rockfall hazard map. Moreover, a barrier location was proposed to eliminate rockfall hazard. As a result, rockfall trajectories and their characteristics were derived. The result of AHP shows that rockfall hazard was significantly influenced by rockfall energy and then by frequency and height. The areas at risk were delineated and the hazard percentage along the expressway was observed and demonstrated. The result also shows that with increasing mechanical parameter values, the rockfall trajectories and their characteristics, and consequently rockfall hazard, were increased. In addition, the suggested barrier effectively restrained most of the rockfall trajectories and eliminated the hazard along the expressway. This study can serve not only as a guide for a comprehensive investigation of rockfall hazard but also as a reference that decision makers can use in designing a risk mitigation method. Furthermore, this study is applicable in any rockfall study, especially in situations where mechanical parameters have no specific values.     

簧式缓冲器的工作原理及其在滚石柔性防护系统中的应用

滚石是突发于人工边坡或自然边坡上的一类特殊的地质灾害,对坡下的人类活动和基础设施的安全构成极大威胁.柔性防护系统是滚石灾害防治的重要方法之一,而摩擦制动环是应用于钢绳拦石网并起到关键缓冲作用的部件.作者发现,当前使用的摩擦制动环存在着缓冲效率较低、较易损坏、成本较高等诸多不足.针对这些不足,提出了一种可应用于滚石柔性防护系统的簧式缓冲器.理论研究表明,它具有缓冲效率较高、不易损坏、价格较低等优点,可望在滚石柔性防护系统中得到广泛应用.     

四川罗家青杠岭崩塌风险的定量评价研究

我国多山,崩塌灾害频繁发生,相应的风险评价也得到了越来越多的关注。由于崩塌发生和运移过程的高度不确定性以及历史数据的不完备,往往很难进行相应的定量风险评价。四川罗家青杠岭的崩塌现场非常典型,而且现场资料较全、历史数据较多并且明确,是开展崩塌风险定量研究的很好实例。通过现场工程地质调查、测绘和统计分析,确定了历史崩塌的物源区、堆积区、最大运移距离、年发生概率以及坡体上的4块典型危岩体A-D。基于历史崩塌堆积区的块石统计特征以及物源区危岩体失稳启动位置的不确定性,利用二维Rockfall模拟软件对所在坡面的恢复系数及摩擦系数进行了反演。在此基础上,对危岩体A-D失稳后的运动特征进行了随机性数值模拟和统计分析,从而确定了崩塌的到达概率。基于崩塌发生概率、到达概率、承灾体时空分布概率和易损性的乘积,作者对罗家青杠岭崩塌进行了定量风险评价。评价结果表明,危岩体A和D的风险值处于不可接受的风险区间,块石B和C的风险值处于警告的风险区间,严重威胁着坡脚附近居民的生命财产安全,有必要采取相应的防灾减灾措施。     

滚石与滚石灾害

长期以来 ,滚石灾害是一种很少受到重视的地质灾害。本文从滚石的概念出发 ,对滚石的内涵、外延及特征进行了较为深入的论述。实际上 ,将各种动力地质现象涉及到的滚石问题提出来单独进行研究不仅有助于问题的简化 ,还有助于研究的深化。自然变异或人为扰动引发的滚石可能会给人类活动和社会造成一定的损失 ,而将滚石作为一类地质灾害并称之为滚石灾害是合理的 ,也是合适的。本文最后还给出了国际上滚石研究的主要方向与基本问题 ,为进一步研究提供参考     

Rockfall hazard assessment along a road in the Sorrento Peninsula,Campania, southern Italy

Rockfalls are common in the steep and vertical slopes of the Campania carbonate massifs and ridges, and frequently represent the main threat to the anthropogenic environment, potentially damaging urban areas, scattered houses, roads, etc. Despite the generally limited volumes involved, the high velocity of movement (from few to tens of metres per second) poses rockfalls among the most dangerous natural hazards to man. Evaluating the rockfall hazard is not an easy task, due to the high number of involved factors, and particularly to the difficulty in determining the properties of the rock mass. In this paper, we illustrate the assessment of the rockfall hazard along a small area of the Sorrento Peninsula (Campania region, southern Italy). Choice of the site was determined by the presence of a road heavily frequented by vehicles. In the area, we have carried out detailed field surveys and software simulations that allow generating simple rockfall hazard maps. Over twenty measurement stations for geo-mechanical characterization of the rock mass have been distributed along a 400-m-long slope of Mount Vico Alvano. Following the internationally established standards for the acquisition of rock mass parameters, the main kinematics have been recognized, and the discontinuity families leading to the different failures identified. After carrying out field experiments by artificially releasing a number of unstable blocks on the rock cliff, the rockfall trajectories along the slope were modelled using 2-D and 3-D programs for rockfall analysis. The results were exploited to evaluate the rockfall hazard along the threatened element at risk.     

无人机影像在高陡边坡危岩体调查中的应用

在高陡边坡危岩体的调查中,复杂的地形条件经常限制工作的正常开展,如何快速准确地获取地质灾害信息一直是地质灾害调查研究中的难点之一。以往的研究中对无人机遥感技术在黄土、高原等地区应用有所报道,但对西南地区高陡边坡危岩体灾害调查的研究尚无报道。文章以锦屏二级水电站出线场边坡落石灾害所在区域为例,将无人机摄影测量技术应用于高陡边坡危岩体调查中,通过无人机倾斜摄影获取高分辨率遥感影像,开展遥感影像三维建模,进行地质灾害遥感解译,总结了无人机遥感系统在高陡边坡危岩体调查的技术流程。通过三维实景模型,精确地分析了落石灾害的空间分布、失稳模式及演化过程,查明了区域内危岩隐患点的分布特征;基于三维点云模型,提取出地质灾害体的属性信息,测得落石方量为11.7 m3,采用最小二乘法进行平面拟合,得到落石两组主控结构面产状为275.4°∠31.2°、103.5°∠63.3°。实践表明,无人机遥感技术在高陡边坡地区落石灾害调查中具有明显的可行性和优越性,可以较好地应用于高陡边坡危岩体调查中。     

Tsunami sediments and their foraminiferal assemblages

Tsunami hazard assessment begins with a compilation of past events that have affected a specific location. Given the inherent limitations of historical archives, the geological record has the potential to provide an independent dataset useful for establishing a richer, chronologically deeper time series of past events. Recent geological studies of tsunami are helping to improve our understanding of the nature and character of tsunami sediments. Wherever possible, geologists should be working to improve the research ‘tool kit’ available to identify past tsunami events. Marine foraminifera (single celled heterotrophic protists) have often been reported as present within tsunami-deposited sediments but in reality, little information about environmental conditions, and by analogy, the tsunami that deposited them, has been reported even though foraminifera have an enormous capacity to provide meaningful palaeo-environmental data. Here, we review what foraminifera are, describe their basic form and significance, summarise where they have been reported in tsunami sediments and identify what can be learnt from them. We review the gaps in our understanding and make recommendations to assist researchers who examine foraminiferal assemblages in order to enhance their use within tsunami geology.     

Evaluating seismically induced mass movement hazard in Caramanico Terme (Italy)

Mass movements and earthquakes represent two major geological hazards in the municipal territory of Caramanico Terme (south-central Apennines). Available records revealed the contemporaneous occurrence of earthquakes and slope failures on four occasions in the last four centuries (1627, 1706, 1933, and 1984). These events, with local intensities ranging from VI to IX, generated mass movements varying from a rotational slope failure to rock/block falls. All occurred in the southern periphery of the town and involved a thick carbonate megabreccia caprock and coarse colluvia which overlie a clayey substratum. Field investigation and review of historical records helped to delimit the areas susceptible to seismically triggered rockfalls. The mapping of historic and pre-historic rockfall deposits revealed their dispersal patterns and provided the basis for a determination of potential hazard zones. We approximate the temporal hazard assessment by relating the rockfall occurrence to the probability of earthquake triggering. Considering the VI degree triggering threshold indicated by local historical data, the statistical analysis of the regional seismic activity shows that events capable of inducing rockfalls have an approximately decennial recurrence in Caramanico. The approach presented could be readily applied to other potential risk areas of Italy by exploiting the rich long-term record of historical seismicity. In general, temporal hazard estimates at relatively low intensity levels will be possible even where the seismic history of the site is only well documented for a relatively limited time interval, provided that this interval is much longer than the recurrence time of the events exceeding the threshold considered.     

Using Historical Documents for Landslide, Debris Flow and Stream Flood Prevention. Applications in Northern Italy

Landslides, debris flows and stream floods are common natural processes inNorthern Italy. Their occurrence can be correctly assessed in space and timeonly through a sound basis of knowledge acquired by the scientific use of alarge number of historical documents. Over the last 30 years, the CNR IRPIInstitute of Turin has made archive data utilisation one of its main points ofscientific research, through the collection of hundreds of thousands of recordscontained in published and unpublished documents and historical reports onnatural damaging events over the last 500 years, particularly since XIX Century.The historical data, interpreted and selected on a scientific basis, have beenorganised in a database and utilised for landscape planning and hydrogeologicalprevention. In co-operation with public organisations, the IRPI Institute hassupplied information (type, location, magnitude, frequency and effects) abouthazardous events in Northern Italy. To give an example, in the last 4 yearsabout 4,500 failure events have been detected along the road network of theTurin Province and many debris flow, rockfall, landslide and flood events inthe Lombardy Region. These data are reported as points linked to the relevantevent-card on technical cartography (scale 1:10,000 or 1:25,000), so that theycan be immediately utilised either on paper or digitally (e.g., GIS, Arcview software).The present day elaboration of archival data permit the possible analytical applications for structural interventions in natural hazard remediation in built-up areas. In all cases, the results of research allow public awareness of natural danger and the correct layout of civil protection strategies.     

全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为２７００个单元，对地质灾害进行现状评价，并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加，编制了全国地质现状等值线图，在现状评价基础上，对地质灾害进行趋势预测，将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素，运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判，编制了１：６００万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。     

Spatial reconstruction of summer temperatures in Central Europe for the last 500 years using annually resolved proxy records: problems and opportunities

Most palaeoclimate studies in Central Europe, utilizing annually resolved proxies such as tree-ring and documentary sources to reconstruct past temperatures, have focused mainly upon single sites or regional studies. The combined information of published summer temperature reconstructions from the Alpine region show a generally coherent picture of cool conditions for the periods c. 1450-1475, 1575-1610, 1660-1710, 1800-1850 and 1875-1925. These reconstructed cool periods can be partly explained by external forcing (e.g. low solar activity and volcanic events). However, these reconstructions, in their present form, cannot be used to comparatively assess spatial summer temperature variability through the region due to methodological differences in their development and the fact that many of them were not originally developed to emphasize spatial patterns. We propose that a network of tree-ring chronologies which have been processed in a consistent way would allow the robust reconstruction of spatial summer temperature variability for high elevations in Central Europe. Unfortunately, most living tree-ring chronologies only go back into the 18th century - so restricting the length of reconstruction. As a possible solution, we introduce a historical database of ring-width series, measured from string instruments, that could be used to extend high elevation spruce chronologies in Central Europe back for at least 500 years.     

Solar activity during the last 1000 yr inferred from radionuclide records

Identification of the causes of past climate change requires detailed knowledge of one of the most important natural factors—solar forcing. Prior to the period of direct solar observations, radionuclide abundances in natural archives provide the best-known proxies for changes in solar activity. Here we present two independent reconstructions of changes in solar activity during the last 1000 yr, which are inferred from ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C records. We analyse the tree-ring ¹⁴C data (SHCal, IntCal04 from 1000 to 1510 AD and annual data from 1511 to 1950 AD) and four ¹⁰Be records from Greenland ice cores (Camp Century, GRIP, Milcent and Dye3) together with two ¹⁰Be records from Antarctic ice cores (Dome Concordia and South Pole). In general, the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C records exhibit good agreement that allows us to obtain reliable estimates of past solar magnetic modulation of the radionuclide production rates. Differences between ¹⁰Be records from Antarctica and Greenland indicate that climatic changes have influenced the deposition of ¹⁰Be during some periods of the last 1000 yr. The radionuclide-based reconstructions of past changes in solar activity do not always agree with the sunspot record, which indicates that the coupling between those proxies is not as close as has been sometimes assumed. The tree-ring ¹⁴C record and ¹⁰Be from Antarctica indicate that recent solar activity is high but not exceptional with respect to the last 1000 yr.     

Magnitude and frequency relations: are there geological constraints to the rockfall size?

There exists a transition between rockfalls, large rock mass failures, and rock avalanches. The magnitude and frequency relations (M/F) of the slope failure are increasingly used to assess the hazard level. The management of the rockfall risk requires the knowledge of the frequency of the events but also defining the worst case scenario, which is the one associated to the maximum expected (credible) rockfall event. The analysis of the volume distribution of the historical rockfall events in the slopes of the Solà d’Andorra during the last 50 years shows that they can be fitted to a power law. We argue that the extrapolation of the F-M relations far beyond the historical data is not appropriate in this case. Neither geomorphological evidences of past events nor the size of the potentially unstable rock masses identified in the slope support the occurrence of the large rockfall/rock avalanche volumes predicted by the power law. We have observed that the stability of the slope at the Solà is controlled by the presence of two sets of unfavorably dipping joints (F3, F5) that act as basal sliding planes of the detachable rock masses. The area of the basal sliding planes outcropping at the rockfall scars was measured with a terrestrial laser scanner. The distribution of the areas of the basal planes may be also fitted to a power law that shows a truncation for values bigger than 50 m² and a maximum exposed surface of 200 m². The analysis of the geological structure of the rock mass at the Solà d’Andorra makes us conclude that the size of the failures is controlled by the fracture pattern and that the maximum size of the failure is constrained. Two sets of steeply dipping faults (F1 and F7) interrupt the other joint sets and prevent the formation of continuous failure surfaces (F3 and F5). We conclude that due to the structural control, large slope failures in Andorra are not randomly distributed thus confirming the findings in other mountain ranges.     

Comparison of rockfall susceptibility assessment at local and regional scale: a case study in the north of Beijing (China)

This study shows a rockfall susceptibility assessment at local scale in north Beijing of China, including the identification of rockfall sources onsite by terrain and rock discontinuities analysis and run-out distance prediction by Rocfall^? simulation. Two types of rockfall were defined including one type on the cliffs with long inclined slopes and another type on the road slopes with low height. Two historical rockfall events were used to back-calibrating the parameters used for run-out distance simulation. Based on the work, rockfall susceptibility map at local scale was created in GIS, which was compared with the map obtained at regional scale (entire Huairou district scale). Due to the difference of approaches applied, procedure of assessment and types of source data acquired, the two resulting rockfall susceptibility maps are proved to be different. Still, both of them are useful and could be used at different level’s decision for rockfall prevention and mitigation. Different types of uncertainties exist in the study of rockfall susceptibility assessment. To reduce the uncertainties, studies on both approaches and techniques are suggested.