管理层股权激励与企业未来盈余定价——来自中国资本市场的证据

本文探讨管理层股权激励对企业未来盈余定价的影响,并进一步将企业未来盈余分解为行业成分和公司特质成分,考察股权激励对不同成分未来盈余定价的影响,以及不同模式股权激励对上述关系影响的差异。利用实施股权激励的中国A股上市公司2006-2016年间的数据,本文发现：（1）股权激励提高了当期股票收益率与企业未来盈余的相关性。说明管理层股权激励有助于投资者对企业未来盈余定价;（2）管理层股权激励并不影响投资者对行业成分未来盈余定价,但会加速投资者对公司特质未来盈余定价;（3）管理层的股票型激励有助于投资者对企业未来盈余定价,同时也能加速投资者对公司特质未来盈余定价,但股票期权激励并无上述作用。研究结果意味着,整体而言股权激励能够缓解管理层与股东之间信息披露的代理问题,激励管理层向外部投资者披露更多高质量的公司基本面信息,从而降低投资者对公司特质未来盈余信息的搜寻成本,最终通过加速公司特质未来盈余信息融入股价来促进投资者对企业未来盈余定价。本文揭示了管理层股权激励促进投资者对企业未来盈余定价的微观机制,同时,研究结论对提高中国证券市场的信息效率提供了重要的理论参考。     

Is stock price a good measure for assessing value-relevance of earnings? An empirical test

Recently, a growing body of literature has created a widespread impression that financial statements have lost their value-relevance because of a shift from traditional capital-intensive economy into a high technology, service-oriented economy. In particular, the claim is that financial statements are less relevant in assessing the fundamental value of high technology, service-oriented firms/activities, which are by nature knowledge-intensive. These conclusions are based on past studies that examine the association between accounting numbers (i.e., earnings and book values) and stock prices and show that, in general, the association between accounting information and stock prices has been declining, over time. These findings have been interpreted to be the result of a decline in value relevance of accounting. We examine the predictive content of stock prices and accounting information, as against the contemporaneous association between accounting information and stock prices. We find that while both the predictive content of earnings and prices declined over time, the predictive content of price signals declined by even more. Our analysis suggests that the declining association could be the consequence of increased noise in stock prices over time resulting from increases in trading volume driven by non-information based trades, and not just a decline in the predictive content of earnings. More importantly, this conclusion is consistent with the insights of the noisy rational expectations equilibrium framework analysis, i.e. that increased noise has caused the predictive content of prices to degrade over time. Overall, our evidence suggests that stock prices may not be an appropriate benchmark for gauging the information content of accounting earnings.

系统风险的会计决定:企业财务风险、经营风险、系统风险的时变关联

新企业会计准则的颁布有力推进了我国金融工具信息披露制度建设,但是到目前为止,研究者对会计信息和上市公司系统风险的关系还不是很清楚.本文提出了新的经济理论模型用于研究财务风险、经营风险和系统风险的动态关联.主要结论:一、财务杠杆和经营杠杆以乘子的形式放大了无杠杆条件下的企业系统风险,这一结论在时变的条件下仍成立;二、理论证实了无杠杆条件下的企业系统风险来源于公司净利润-流通市值比率、销售增长率和平均价格增长率的变动;三、财务风险和经营风险间存在一个权衡,例如经营风险高的公司,将会选择一个较低的财务风险,使得公司有一个相对合理的系统风险.因此,会计风险披露制度的推进可以为投资者提供更多和更好的有关公司风险的信息.     

应计信息、机构投资者反应与股票错误定价

利用日内交易数据构建订单流不平衡指标,考察机构投资者对上市公司应计信息的即时反应情况及对股票价格产生的影响.结果表明,机构投资者在公司意外盈余为正的前提下,根据应计利润水平采取反转交易策略,买入(卖出)低(高)应计公司股票;受机构投资者交易行为的影响,低应计(高应计)公司股价在盈余公告后短期内上涨(下跌),在公告后长期则下跌(上涨),股价在整个区间内经历反转;通过构建套利组合研究发现,公司应计对股票盈余公告后长期收益的正向预测能力,不能完全被基于风险的资产定价模型所解释,说明机构投资者的交易行为造成股价过度反应,导致市场对公司应计项目错误定价.     

股票分析师的羊群行为对公司股价同步性的影响分析

股价"同涨同跌"是我国股票市场的一种重要现象。多股集体"暴跌"会给公司和投资者造成严重的损失,因而股价同步性的问题受到监管者和学术界的广泛关注。本文以2010-2017年股票分析师对上市公司做出的预测为主要研究对象,验证了股票分析师的羊群行为与公司股价同步性间的关系,讨论了机构投资者和市场情绪的作用机制。实证结果表明我国股票分析师的羊群行为是"非信息驱动"的真羊群行为,这种行为降低了市场上的特质信息含量,从而增加了公司的股价同步性。上述关系在熊市中更为显著,并且分析师与机构投资者之间的利益冲突会加剧其羊群行为对股价同步性的影响。本文的研究对理解如何降低股价崩盘风险、提高我国股票市场的信息传递效率具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。     

CSR signaling in controversial and noncontroversial industries: CSR policies,governance structures,and transparency tools

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives are signals used by organizations to reduce information asymmetries within the market and to make their commitment to sustainability observable. The present study aims at investigating the hypothesis that responsible companies operating in controversial industries (i.e., companies whose core business or production processes are perceived as questionable by society given current environmental, social, or/and ethical issues) are likely to be more active in using different types of CSR signals. Through ANCOVA, we assess how firms belonging to both controversial and non-controversial industries differ in the way they manage CSR signals. The empirical results show that companies in controversial sectors are significantly more focused on developing CSR policies and transparency tools since they expect these signals to be really visible and distinctive to stakeholders. However, companies in controversial industries seem to be similar to non-controversial companies in signaling CSR governance, suggesting that organizations expect receivers to attribute little relevance to the least visible signals. Therefore, these signals do not grant a sufficiently large reputational payoff, discouraging firms from taking advantage of the implementation of CSR governance structures. The study supports the idea that firms, in designing different types of CSR signals, take into account the peculiarities of different receivers. At the same time though, this could make firms underestimate the receivers’ ability to decode the signals and to generate countersignals, thus failing in assessing properly the expected return from their CSR signaling.     

机构投资者信息搜寻、公开信息透明度与私有信息套利

本文利用特有的机构投资者私有信息搜寻数据,研究了机构投资者的信息搜寻、透明度与私有信息套利的关系。本文的研究发现,机构投资者的信息搜寻和信息披露的透明度降低了私有信息套利,而且机构投资者信息搜寻、信息披露透明度在私有信息套利严重的公司对降低私有信息套利的作用更加明显。同时,本文的研究结果也表明,机构投资者信息搜寻与信息披露透明度对私有信息套利存在交互效应,随着信息披露透明度的提高,机构投资者信息搜寻对私有信息套利的边际效应下降。     

资产减值准备计提与会计盈余价值相关性——基于亏损上市公司的经验数据

采用多元回归分析法对新8项资产减值会计准则实施后,亏损上市公司计提减值准备的会计盈余价值相关性进行了研究;在考虑公司个体特点的基础上,运用堆栈回归法,采用随机效应影响的面板模型对不同年度的会计盈余价值相关性进行了分析。结果表明,从整体上看,亏损上市公司计提减值准备后增强了会计盈余价值相关性,计提的减值准备数据本身也具有增量价值相关性,同时,研究还发现盈利年度的会计信息对投资者的决策更有用,以及投资者不能有效识别微利公司的会计盈余质量,而对于巨亏公司与通过转回减值准备方式盈利的公司来说,其会计盈余数据的决策相关性显著低于对比公司,投资者能有效识别其会计盈余质量,这为2007年1月1日起实施的《企业会计准则第8号——资产减值》中规定的关于已计提的减值准备不可转回的会计准则变革提供了实证支持。     

锚定比率可以衡量股价高估吗？——基于崩盘风险视角的经验证据

股价高估指的是公司市场价值超出其内在价值的现象,但如何衡量内在价值一直存在争议。借鉴行为金融文献中锚定效应的概念,结合中国资本市场的特殊性,本文提出了锚定比率(简称"RPR")这一新的股价高估指标。为了证实该指标的有效性,本文利用事后的股价崩盘风险进行了相关检验。结果表明:第一,锚定比率与股价崩盘风险正相关;第二,更少的分析师跟踪、更多的散户持股以及更高的股票流动性均会强化锚定比率对股价崩盘风险的影响;第三,在控制常用的股价高估指标、两类代理问题和管理层"捂盘"行为后,本文的结果依然成立;第四,利用崩盘事件,本文证实了锚定比率会加剧股价下跌的程度,且长期来看股价会保持"惯性"而非"反转"。本文的研究表明投资者做决策时对股价高点存在明显的锚定效应,丰富了锚定效应在中国资本市场中的运用。更重要的是,本文提出了一个可能更适合于中国资本市场的股价高估指标,该指标意味着资本市场定价机制的不完善是导致股价高估和频繁崩盘的重要原因,这对于改善资本市场定价效率、降低股价崩盘风险有一定的启示作用。     

收益公布效应的实证研究

股票市场的有效性研究是金融经济学的一个重要基础 .国外对此作了广泛深入的研究 ,其中事件研究方法是一个重要的方法 ,其普遍适应性导致了它的广泛应用 .目前对我国股票市场有效性的实证研究尚处于起步阶段 ,本文试图采用事件研究方法主要针对上海股市进行收益公布的实证研究 .本文研究的经验结果对我国股市的半强式有效性提供了一个重要支持     

A Valuation Based Analysis of the Spanish Accounting Reforms

This paper contrasts the association between security prices and accounting information before and after the Spanish accounting reforms. Spanish regulations were changed during 1989 and 1990 so as to conform with EU requirements, bringing them broadly into line with international standards, although the new system still focuses on compliance with rules rather than reflecting the substance of economic transactions. We model security price as a function of two fundamental accounting variables -- book value of equity per share and earnings per share. The model is estimated using a sample drawn from non-financial companies listed on the Madrid Stock Exchange during the period 1986--1995. Whilst the results demonstrate only a modest improvement in value relevance of accounting information following the reform, they show that the influence of the earnings variable becomes somewhat smaller whilst that on equity is increased. This is consistent with earnings containing a larger proportion of transitory elements following the reform, whilst the equity value appears to have more economic relevance than previously.     

会计盈余信息选拔的不可能定理及其理论深化

在美国等较为成熟的股票市场中,会计盈余信息的主要功能是定价,但是在政府管制较为严格的中国股票市场中,会计盈余信息的首要功能是"选拔".文章对中国证监会和上市公司之间的博弈构建了数学模型,提出了"会计盈余信息选拔的不可能定理":若以下两个条件存在--(1)监管部门设定选拔标准有一个上限,或(2)上市公司通过合法或非法方式虚报盈余的"虚报成本系数"较小,那么单纯依靠会计盈余信息将无法选拔出理想的目标公司.由此得到的可能的理论深化是:度量标准应当与契约形式相配合,如果制度环境本身限制了会计盈余信息作为度量标准的使用,那么改善的要点不应该集中于会计盈余信息本身,而应该在于调整博弈制度的安排.同时也为中国新会计准则执行研究提供了新的理论视角.     

困境公司价值相关性研究

本文运用计量经济模型探讨了中国上市公司价值的相关性问题。研究发现在决定中国上市公司价值的因素中 ,资产负债表和损益表对困境公司和正常经营公司的影响是不一样的。对于经营困境公司 ,权益的账面价值与股价之间不存在显著的正相关关系 ,而盈余与股价之间却存在不显著的负相关关系。对于正常经营公司 ,盈余与股价之间有正相关关系。本文的研究结论表明完善上市公司的退市规则和破产法规 ,完善公司上市制度对于健全中国的证券市场是非常重要的。     

Pro forma earnings disclosure: the effects of non-GAAP earnings and earnings-before on investors’ information processing

Research on pro forma earnings disclosure usually does not distinguish between different types of pro forma earnings. However, non-GAAP earnings and earnings-before (EB) metrics such as the EBIT fit the conventional perception of pro forma earnings but offer varying degrees of flexibility to management in pursuing strategic reporting motives. This study presents the results of an experiment that builds upon Maines and McDaniel’s (Account Rev 75(2):179–207, 2000) framework and analyzes if variations in the use and combination of pro forma earnings information affect whether nonprofessional investors acquire (pro forma) earnings information, and how this information is evaluated, and weighted when making investment-related judgments. Our results indicate that a “pure” non-GAAP disclosure increases investors’ evaluation of a company’s earnings performance compared to all other reporting strategies. However, we also find that nonprofessional investors consider non-GAAP information strategically motivated and thus weight it less heavily in arriving at investment-related judgments. Overall, we find that investors’ judgments (i.e., the overall favorability of the earnings announcement and the company’s attractiveness as an investment) are highest when the earnings press release contains the non-GAAP earnings and the EB measure. This has important implications for behavioral accounting theory as well as corporate practice and policy-making.     

Does accounting regulation enhance corporate governance? Evidence from the disclosure of share-based remuneration

Accounting for stock options and share-based remuneration is a controversial issue. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of the mandatory adoption of IFRS 2 on accounting for share-based remuneration by Italian listed companies. The requirements under this standard could have relevant implications for corporate governance as IFRS 2 is expected to reduce the information asymmetry that may exist between corporate insiders and outsiders regarding such remuneration. Empirical evidence confirms that overall disclosure in annual reports concerning the costs of remuneration plans has increased following the adoption of IFRS 2, although some cases of lack of disclosure have also been found. We find that this change in accounting regulation has contributed towards revealing the ‘true’ cost of share-based remuneration to minority shareholders and other investors, together with some evidence of creative accounting surrounding the substance over form principle.     

企业社会责任、媒体报道与股价崩盘风险

理论上企业披露社会责任信息既可能抑制股价崩盘风险,亦可能加剧股价崩盘风险;新闻媒体作为社会责任披露的重要载体在其中既可能弱化也可能强化这种影响,对这些问题的探讨是近年来公司金融领域研究的热点,但学者对当前的研究结果尚存在较多争论。鉴于此,本文首先在理论上导出社会责任披露对股价崩盘风险的双向作用机制,然后引入新闻媒体研究其可能的传导途径。基于我国A股市场所有上市公司2010-2018年面板数据的研究结果显示：上市公司通过披露企业社会责任指数能够显著降低股价崩盘风险;企业履行社会责任会显著增加媒体报道的数量,而媒体报道数量增加能够显著抑制股价崩盘风险,即媒体报道在企业社会责任影响股价崩盘风险的过程中起到中介作用;进一步的拓展研究发现：企业社会责任指数中的股东责任对股价崩盘风险影响最大,而供应商、客户和消费者权益、社会责任的影响不显著;与中性媒体报道相比,正面媒体报道和负面媒体报道的中介作用效果更强。     

An Examination of the Economic Circumstances Surrounding Decisions to Capitalize Brands

The paper reports both the results of an empirical investigation into the effects of the decisions of 13 UK companies to include brands in their published balance sheets on the prices of their shares, and also an examination of the motivations for these decisions from a costly contracting perspective. Price gains appear to be positively associated with the proportionate increase in reported net assets caused by capitalizing brands. On the other hand, when allowance is made for the contemporaneous release of other information, little, if any, of the share price behaviour around the announcement dates can be attributed to the capitalization of brands - a finding consistent either with the capital market having already formed unbiased expectations of brand values prior to disclosure, or with ills having serious doubts about the credibility of the valuations. Consistent with a costly contracting perspective of accounting method choice, we found that brand capitalization had a marked impact on reported gearing levels and more or less eliminated the higher gearing levels of capitalizing firms relative to similar companies, particularly as far as late adopting firms were concerned. Brand capitalization also had a particularly marked impact on book-to-market-equity ratios; capitalization served to increase the ratios of capitalizing firms to approximately the levels observed on the non-capitalizing controls.     

政府行为、股权安排与公司治理的有效性——基于盈余质量视角的研究

本文以我国2000至2005年期间A股上市公司为研究对象,探讨在政府控制的特殊经济环境下,股权安排对会计盈余质量的影响,试图从会计契约角度对公司治理有效性做出新的诠析。本研究发现,控股股东对盈余质量的影响是非线性的,而第二大股东则对控股股东的壕沟防御效应起到有效的遏制作用。研究还发现,在政府行政干预力度加大和内部人利益侵害行为加剧的双重推动下,国有上市公司财务报告质量将进一步被降低。     

Determinants of voluntary CSR disclosure: empirical evidence from Germany

Currently, companies spend a great deal of effort on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) disclosures. CSR disclosure relates to the provision of information on companies’ environmental and social performance. From an economic perspective, companies might disclose this information to avoid or decrease potential political costs. We construct a CSR disclosure index based on the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) guidelines. Using content analysis, we analyze 130 listed German companies’ CSR disclosures (470 firm-year observations) to investigate the determinants of these voluntary disclosure activities. Our results show that, consistent with the political cost theory, German companies’ disclosures of all CSR issues are affected by their visibility, shareholder structure, and relationship with their US stakeholders. In addition, higher profitability is associated with more environmental disclosures. Finally, size and industry membership affect the amount of CSR disclosure.     

企业信息披露中的模仿行为研究——基于制度理论的分析

本文在制度理论的分析框架下,研究合法性压力和不确定性条件下企业信息披露中的模仿行为及由此导致的制度同形现象.本文以2006-2010年我国重污染行业上市公司年报中的环境信息披露为研究对象,发现企业环境信息披露存在同形性和模仿行为,且属于模仿其它企业平均水平的频率模仿,而不是模仿领先者.本文将已有的信息披露研究从经济学分析的视角向经济社会学进行拓展,丰富了对信息披露过程中决策者认知过程和制度化过程的认识,同时也透过信息披露中的模仿行为从更加微观的层面为制度化过程中的趋同现象提供了新的证据.