External costs of electricity generation options in Lithuania

This article deals with external cost of electricity generation in Lithuania. The external costs of electricity generation are the most important environmental criteria shaping decisions within the electricity system. External costs of electricity generation were calculated based on ExternE methodology for Lithuania during EU (European Union) Framework 6 project Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems (CASES). The article presents the methodology and results of external costs of electricity generation in Lithuania. The assessment of external costs provided that future energy policy should be oriented towards the renewable energy generation technologies having the lowest external costs. External costs for electricity generation technologies were analysed in terms of external costs categories, electricity generation technologies life cycle stages and time frame 2010–2030.     

External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, and CO₂ from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24–55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9–26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%.     

全国碳市场背景下电力行业碳价传导机制研究

电力行业作为典型的能源密集型行业,是全世界各地碳市场的重点管控对象。本文对国内外电力市场、碳市场及碳价传导的问题进行了研究,发现欧洲、美国的电力市场更趋近于买方市场,碳价对终端电价的影响较小。而由于中国电力体制的特殊性,电价由政府主管部门进行管控,因而在政府不通过行政手段调节碳成本传递机制的情况下,碳成本将无法向发电企业下游传导,使得发电企业暴露在碳成本波动的风险下。同时,在对碳成本传导机制研究的基础上给出了具体建议。     

Households’ willingness to pay for safeguarding security of natural gas supply in electricity generation

Security of energy supply is a major issue for all EU Member States due to Europe's increasing dependence on imported fossil-fuel sources and the continuous rise in energy demand. The latter is of particular importance in electricity sector given the continuously increasing use of gas for electricity generation. In order to properly tackle with the problem, concerted actions are required by the EU Member States in several levels, i.e. legislative, political, etc. Nevertheless, these actions will come at an additional cost paid by the society either through increased electricity bills or through public financing for energy security investments. Thus, such policies should be justified on the basis of cost-benefit analysis. Towards this direction, it may be necessary to take into account non-market costs and benefits, i.e. the value that consumers place on interruptions avoided. In order to explore households’ perceptions and willingness to pay for securing gas supply for electricity production, an empirical study was conducted by means of the contingent valuation method. The results indicate that consumers are willing to pay a premium on their electricity bills in order to internalize the external costs of electricity production, in terms of energy security, which are caused from imported fuels.     

Estimating the health damage costs of syrian electricity generation system using impact pathway approach

Based on the simplified impact pathway approach the environmental impacts from airborne pollutant emissions of Syrian electricity generation system have been assessed and the associated external damage costs to human health have been evaluated. The obtained results indicate that the environmental impacts can add considerable external cost to the typical generation cost. The estimated externalities vary between 2.5 and 0.07 US-cents per generated kWh for heavy fuel oil and NG fired power plants respectively. For the fuel oil fired power plants the resulting external cost, arise mainly from Sulphates impact, amounts to about 25% of the present generation costs. These results indicate the advantage of NG fired power plants as clean generation technology and the necessity of supplying oil fired power plants with SO₂ emission reduction technologies.     

Modelling the competitiveness of first generation commercial OTEC power plants

First generation OTEC plants are expected to be used mainly for baseload electricity generation in the United States Gulf Coast region. In this application, OTEC plants would compete directly with nuclear and coal-fired power plants. The prospective competitiveness of OTEC is evaluated by comparing the delivered cost of electricity generated by the three types of plant for a geographical scenario typical of the region. The comparison is carried out using a modified version of the cost of energy model developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and current estimates of future construction, operating and maintenance costs for the three power plant types. Four main independent variables are considered in this study: OTEC plant capital costs, real fuel escalation rates, real cost of capital resources, and OTEC plant operating capacity factors. The first two factors are found to be prime determinants of OTEC competitiveness. The values commonly forecasted suggest that OTEC plants are likely to deliver electricity at roughly the same cost as nuclear and coal-fired power plants by the year 2000. By contrast, variations in the real cost of capital resources and in OTEC plant capacity factors are found to have only a minor impact on the competitiveness of OTEC with conventional modes of electricity generation.     

Historical costs of coal-fired electricity and implications for the future

We study the cost of coal-fired electricity in the United States between 1882 and 2006 by decomposing it in terms of the price of coal, transportation cost, energy density, thermal efficiency, plant construction cost, interest rate, capacity factor, and operations and maintenance cost. The dominant determinants of cost have been the price of coal and plant construction cost. The price of coal appears to fluctuate more or less randomly while the construction cost follows long-term trends, decreasing from 1902 to 1970, increasing from 1970 to 1990, and leveling off since then. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of using long time series and comparing electricity generation technologies using decomposed total costs, rather than costs of single components like capital. By taking this approach we find that the history of coal-fired electricity suggests there is a fluctuating floor to its future costs, which is determined by coal prices. Even if construction costs resumed a decreasing trend, the cost of coal-based electricity would drop for a while but eventually be determined by the price of coal, which fluctuates while showing no long-term trend.     

External costs of fossil electricity generation: Health-based assessment in Thailand

Airborne pollutants from fossil fuel burning in electricity generation potentially contribute a number of consequent environmental impacts. In order to indicate the actual costs of energy, a so-called external cost has become of growing concerns internationally. This study aims to evaluate the external costs related to human health degradation resulting from Thai electricity generation produced from fossil fuel which operated during the period from 2006 to 2008. Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) was applied in the analysis. The advections of the criteria pollutants (SO₂, NO_X, and PM₁₀) including secondary particulates (sulfate and nitrate aerosols) had been simulated using the CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system. Subsequently, the exposure-response functions (ERFs) were used to quantify the marginal damage to public health. Finally, costs of such damages were then estimated based on welfare economics. The results showed that the criteria pollutants caused significant damage to both premature mortality and morbidity. The average damage cost was totally about 600 million 2005 US$ annually which ranged between 0.05 and 4.17 US$ cent kWh⁻¹ depending on fuel types. It implies that the external costs are significant to the determination of electricity market price. With the damage costs being included, the electricity price will reflect the true costs of the generation which will be beneficial to the society as a whole.     

Economical evaluation of electricity generation considering externalities

The economics of renewable energy are the largest barrier to renewable penetration. Nevertheless, the strong desire to reduce environmental emissions is considered a great support for renewable energy sources. In this paper, a full analysis for the cost of the kWh of electricity generated from different systems actually used in Egypt is presented. Also renewable energy systems are proposed and their costs are analyzed. The analysis considers the external cost of emissions from different generating systems. A proposed large scale PV plant of 3.3 MW, and a wind farm 11.25 MW grid connected at different sites are investigated. A life cycle cost analysis for each system was performed using the present value criterion. The comparison results showed that wind energy generation has the lowest cost, followed by a combined cycle–natural gas fired system. A photovoltaic system still uses comparatively expensive technology for electricity generation; even when external costs are considered the capital cost of photovoltaic needs to be reduced by about 60% in order to be economically competitive.     

Promotion of renewable energy in Baltic States

Baltic States have quite limited own energy resources. In the accession agreement with EU Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have verified their targets to increase the share of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES-E) by the year 2010. Lithuania has target to increase RES-E from 3.3 to 7%, Latvia—from 42.4 to 49.3% and Estonia—from 0.2 to 5.1%. Promotion of use of renewable energy sources are among the priorities of energy policy in Baltic States. More wide use of renewable energy can make a valuable contribution to diversification of energy supply and increase of reliability of energy supply and to meeting GHG emission reduction targets. The article presents a detailed overview of the present policies and measures implemented in Baltic States aiming to support the use of renewable energy sources. The article presents a review of the present renewable situation in Baltic States and analyses policies and measures in place aiming to enhance use of renewables. The review of possibilities to use EU structural funds for the implementation of renewable energy projects in Baltic States was performed in the paper.     

Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional “bottom-up” partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO₂, NO_x) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NO_x removal, and CO₂ scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO₂ over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO₂ mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control.     

Prospects for PV: a learning curve analysis

This article gives an overview of the current state-of-the-art of photovoltaic electricity technology, and addresses its potential for cost reductions over the first few decades of the 21st century. Current PV production cost ranges are presented, both in terms of capacity installation and electricity generation, of single crystalline silicon, multi-crystalline silicon, amorphous silicon and other thin film technologies. Possible decreases of these costs are assessed, as expected according to the learning-curve methodology. We also estimate how much PV could gain if external costs (due to environmental and health damage) of energy were internalised, for example by an energy tax. Our conclusions are that, (1) mainly due its high costs, PV electricity is unlikely to play a major role in global energy supply and carbon emissions abatement before 2020, (2) extrapolating learning curves observed in the past, one can expect its costs to decrease significantly over the coming years, so that a considerable PV electricity share world-wide could materialise after 2020, (3) niche-market applications, e.g. using stand-alone systems in remote areas, are crucial for continuing ‘the ride along the learning curve’, (4) damage costs of conventional (fossil) power sources are considerable, and their internalisation would improve the competitiveness of PV, although probably not enough to close the current cost gap.     

The German Renewable Energy Sources Act—an investment into the future pays off already today

While the success of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act in supporting the use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation is widely acknowledged, it is partly criticised for imposing unjustified extra costs on society. Based on the well established ExternE methodology for the quantification of environmental externalities the paper makes an attempt to estimate the external costs avoided in the German energy system due to the use of renewable energies for electricity generation, and to compare them against the compensation to be paid by grid operators for electricity from renewable energies according to the Renewable Energy Sources Act. In spite of existing uncertainties associated with the assessment of external costs, results clearly indicate that the reduced environmental impacts and related economic benefits do outweigh the additional costs for the compensation of electricity from renewable energies.     

Electricity tariffs based on long-run marginal costs for central grid system of Oman

The electricity tariffs in Oman are subsidized and are based on a cost accounting approach and do not reflect the true cost incurred in generating, transmitting and distributing a kilowatt-hour of electricity at the consumer end. This paper presents the electricity tariff based on the estimation of long-run marginal cost at generation, 33 kV, and 415 voltage level for Ministry of Housing, Electricity & Water (MHEW) interconnected power system of Oman. The result shows that at the generation level a marginal kW costs US$ 75 per year and a marginal kWh costs 2.07 ¢/kWh. These costs increase as we move downstream from generation to consumer end. The average cost of electricity at the consumer end connected at 415 V is 6.52 ¢/kWh or 25.17 Bz/kWh.     

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be mean-variance “inefficient” in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.     

Cost effects of international trade in meeting EU renewable electricity targets

The European market for renewable electricity received a major stimulus from the adoption of the Directive on the Promotion of Renewable Electricity. The Directive specifies the indicative targets for electricity supply from renewable energy sources (RES-E) to be reached in European Union (EU) Member States in the year 2010. It also requires Member States to certify the origin of their renewable electricity production. This article presents a first EU-wide quantitative evaluation of the effects of meeting the targets, using an EU-wide system for tradable green certificates (TGC). We calculate the equilibrium price of green certificates and identify which countries are likely to export or import certificates. Cost advantages of participating in such an EU-wide trading scheme are determined for each of the Member States. Moreover, we identify which choice of technologies results in meeting targets at least costs. Results are obtained from a model that quantifies the effects of achieving the RES-E targets in the EU with and without trade. The article provides a brief insight in this model as well as the methodology that was used to specify cost potential curves for renewable electricity in each of the 15 EU Member States. Model calculations show that within the EU-wide TGC system, the total production costs of the last option needed to satisfy the overall EU RES-E target equals 9.2 eurocent/kWh. Assuming that the production price of electricity on the European power market would equal 3 eurocent/kWh in the year 2010, the indicative green certificate price equals 6.2 eurocent/kWh. We conclude that implementation of an EU-wide TGC system is a cost-efficient way of stimulating renewable electricity supply.     

Using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties—An Australian case study

A generation portfolio modelling was employed to assess the expected costs, cost risk and emissions of different generation portfolios in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) under highly uncertain gas prices, carbon pricing policy and electricity demand. Outcomes were modelled for 396 possible generation portfolios, each with 10,000 simulations of possible fuel and carbon prices and electricity demands. In 2030, the lowest expected cost generation portfolio includes 60% renewable energy. Increasing the renewable proportion to 75% slightly increased expected cost (by $0.2/MWh), but significantly decreased the standard deviation of cost (representing the cost risk). Increasing the renewable proportion from the present 15% to 75% by 2030 is found to decrease expected wholesale electricity costs by $17/MWh. Fossil-fuel intensive portfolios have substantial cost risk associated with high uncertainty in future gas and carbon prices. Renewables can effectively mitigate cost risk associated with gas and carbon price uncertainty. This is found to be robust to a wide range of carbon pricing assumptions. This modelling suggests that policy mechanisms to promote an increase in renewable generation towards a level of 75% by 2030 would minimise costs to consumers, and mitigate the risk of extreme electricity prices due to uncertain gas and carbon prices.     

The impact of Production Tax Credits on the profitable production of electricity from wind in the U.S.

A spatial financial model using wind data derived from assimilated meteorological condition was developed to investigate the profitability and competitiveness of onshore wind power in the contiguous U.S. It considers not only the resulting estimated capacity factors for hypothetical wind farms but also the geographically differentiated costs of local grid connection. The levelized cost of wind-generated electricity for the contiguous U.S. is evaluated assuming subsidy levels from the Production Tax Credit (PTC) varying from 0 to 4 ¢/kWh under three cost scenarios: a reference case, a high cost case, and a low cost case. The analysis indicates that in the reference scenario, current PTC subsidies of 2.1 ¢/kWh are at a critical level in determining the competitiveness of wind-generated electricity compared to conventional power generation in local power market. Results from this study suggest that the potential for profitable wind power with the current PTC subsidy amounts to more than seven times existing demand for electricity in the entire U.S. Understanding the challenges involved in scaling up wind energy requires further study of the external costs associated with improvement of the backbone transmission network and integration into the power grid of the variable electricity generated from wind.     

Evaluation of micro‐scale electricity generation cost using biomass‐derived synthetic gas through modeling

A promising renewable energy technology is electricity generated with biomass‐derived synthetic gas (syngas). The economic feasibility of using biomass gasification for generating electrical power is very much dependent on the cost of the power plant and the cost of its operation. A cost model was developed to analyze the Unit Cost (unit‐cost) of electricity generation from micro‐scale power facilities that used biomass gasification as its energy input. The costs considered in the model were capital cost and operating costs. The results from the modeling indicated that operating cost was a major part of the total annual production cost of electricity generation, and that labor was the largest part of the total annual production cost of operation, and it was during the time when the power facilities operated at lower generation capacity levels. One effective way of reducing the unit‐cost was to operate the facility at high capacity level. The study found that when the capacity level increased the total of annual cost was also increased, but the electricity unit‐cost decreased markedly. For a given level of generating capacity, the electricity unit‐cost of the facility operating at a two or three shifts operating mode was significantly lower than that of one shift operating mode. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries

This paper employs a novel Monte-Carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty. This tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs, associated cost uncertainty and expected CO₂ emissions for different possible generation portfolios. A case study of an electricity industry with coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations. The case study uses half-hourly demand and wind generation data from South Eastern Australia, and regional estimates of new-build plant costs and characteristics. Results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs, it reduces associated cost uncertainties and CO₂ emissions. However, there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios. The extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios.