中国海及邻近海域卫星观测资料同化试验

利用1个基于POMgcs海洋模式和多重网格三维变分同化方法建立的中国海及邻近海域海面高与三维温盐流数值预报模型,通过一系列数值试验,研究了同化卫星测高和卫星遥感海面温度观测资料对该模型预报能力的影响。试验结果表明,同化卫星测高资料可明显改善海面高度与三维温度和盐度的分析预报效果,使1 200 m以上的温度预报误差减小0.16℃,并能有效提高对海洋中尺度现象的预报能力;同化卫星遥感海面温度对100 m以上的温度和盐度的预报效果有所改善,可使海面温度的预报误差减小10%。     

利用卫星观测海面信息反演三维温度场

基于历史观测的温盐剖面资料,采用回归分析方法统计出海面温度异常、海面动力高度异常与温度剖面异常之间的相关关系;然后利用高分辨率的卫星遥感海表面温度(SST)和卫星观测海面高度(SSH)信息重构了三维海洋温度场。在台湾岛周边海域建立了时间分辨率为天、空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的三维温度分析场。通过与实测资料的比较分析,文章所构建的分析场能够较好地描述海洋三维温度场的结构特征,能够较为真实地反映海洋的中尺度变化过程。该分析场可以作为海洋数值模式的初始场,也可以作为伪观测同化到海洋数值再分析和预报系统中,进而改善三维温、盐、流的数值再分析和预报。     

海洋环境数值预报检验方法的探讨与测试

对获得的海浪有效波高、海表温度、剖面温度和水位等要素的实测数据以及历史CTD资料,通过对这些数据进行分析和处理,检验WW3海浪、三维温盐流以及MODAS(模块化数据同化系统)等模式的数值预报产品,并设计相应的软件进行各时次的实时比对和旬月统计,自动生成客观的旬月检验报告.为改进预报模式、提高数值预报的准确性和预报产品的使用率提供可靠的依据.     

西北太平洋及印度洋三维温盐流数值预报业务系统构建及预报检验

基于HYCOM海洋模式和集合最优插值(En OI)同化方法,开发了一套西北太平洋及印度洋三维温盐流数值预报业务系统(IAPos),2016年5月开始进行业务试验,并对业务试验的结果与原有的三维温盐流数值预报系统(wyl V2)进行对比检验,从检验结果看:在中国近海,IAPos系统的预报效果,较wyl V2有非常显著的改善,但对不同预报变量、不同垂直层、不同区域也有一些差异。整体来说,IAPos系统的预报性能较好。     

基于CCMP卫星遥感海面风场数据的渤海风浪模拟研究

CCMP（Cross Calibrated Multi-Platform）风场数据是一种具有较高的时间、空间分辨率和全球海洋覆盖能力的新型卫星遥感资源。在充分分析CCMP海面风场数据可靠性的基础上,以该卫星遥感海面风场数据为强迫输入项,运用第三代浅水波浪模式SWAN对渤海一次风浪过程进行了模拟,将模拟的结果与T/P、Jason卫星高度计观测得到的有效浪高数据进行比较分析,发现两者相关性达到0.78,模拟结果平均偏高0.3 m。试验表明CCMP卫星遥感风场数据能满足海洋浪高预报需求,能在海洋数值预报和海洋环境研究中发挥重要作用。     

利用卫星遥感海面温度、高度联合反演南海北部三维温度场

利用历史观测得到的温度剖面数据,通过严格筛选和插值,建立了南海北部的气候态垂向温度剖面。随后,利用回归统计分析的方法构建了海面温度异常(SSTA)、海面高度异常(SSHA)联合扩展温度剖面的经验回归模型,并采用卫星遥感得到的SST和SSH数据扩展了南海北部的三维海洋温度场,其时间分辨率为天,空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°。通过与观测数据的对比研究,扩展得到的温度场可以较为准确地反映南海北部温度剖面的结构特征,并且能有效地体现出一些中尺度变化过程。结果表明,本研究反演得到的三维温度扩展场是较为可靠的,它可以作为海洋数值模型的初始场,实现现场观测数据和卫星遥感数据的互补,有助于更好地分析南海北部温度场的三维结构及变化特征。     

基于ConvGRU和自注意力的海表温度偏差订正研究

海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature, SST） 是一个重要的海洋物理量, 其准确预报对于水产养殖和预测海洋环境信息等海洋相关领域的研究至关重要。数值预报是目前预报海表温度的一种常用方法, 但数值预报模型所产生的预报结果往往与实际观测数据有偏差, 因此有必要对数值预报产品的偏差进行订正。本文提出了一种结合ConvGRU 神经网络与自注意力（Self-Attention, SA） 的新型时空混合海表温度订正模型（ConvGRU-SA）, 对南海海表温度预报数据进行偏差订正, 该模型适用于利用卫星遥感数据对海表温度数值预报产品进行订正。经与ConvLSTM、ConvGRU 等网络模型对比, 证明了ConvGRU-SA 模型的优越性, 设置不同的超参 数进行实验, 提高模型订正准确率。订正后该区域的海表温度预报均方根误差从0.52 ℃降低至0.32 ℃, 准确率提高了38.4%, 优于现有模型。     

基于海面位势高度和海表温度构建西太平洋三维温度场

提出了一个基于上一年逐月三维再分析温盐场和第二年月平均卫星观测数据,包括海表温度SST(Sea Surface Temperature),海面高度异常SLA(Sea Level Anomaly),来推算区域海洋三维温度场的方法。选取西太平洋区域作为验证算法有效的海区。该三维水域的水平海域范围设定为:30°N～50°N,140°W～180°W,水平分辨率为1°;深度方向为从海表至-1 000 m,划分为19层。重构的第一步是利用上一年的逐月的温盐场,在该三维空间的每个网格点上建立一个温度和卫星观测的海表温度、海面位势高度的回归方程。根据该回归方程和第二年的卫星观测数据可以得到第二年的该区域的三维温度场。第二步把相同月份的该区域存在的Argo温度廓线同化进重构的温度场来提高重构的精度。重构的2015、2016年的温度场和CMEMS(Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service)提供的再分温度场的相关系数分别达到了0.992 9和0.991 2,均方根误差为0.79和0.89℃;在-200 m以深的区域,均方根差异小于1℃,-200 m以浅的区域,均方根差异在1～2℃。表明该重构方法是合理有效的,所以基于第一年的温盐三维数据和第二年的卫星观测的海表数据可以重构第二年的三维温度场。     

卫星高度计资料在三维海温和盐度数值预报中的应用

随着卫星遥感观测技术的发展,越来越多的卫星观测资料被应用于数值模式的同化研究中.基于国家海洋环境预报中心西北太平洋三维湿盐流预报系统,利用法国CLS中心的沿轨高度计资料的海表面高度异常的融合数据,结合基于三维变分的OVALS(ocean variational analysis system)同化系统,在垂向将海面高度...     

海洋三维温盐流数值模拟研究的有关进展和问题

就海洋三维温盐流数值模拟使用的海洋模式和数据同化方法、在中尺度数值预报和再分析中的应用,以及所需支撑条件三方面,简述了国内外研究有关进展和问题。表述了开展大范围分辨中尺度乃至次中尺度涡的高分辨率海洋三维温盐流数值模拟正在研究的有关问题,扼要说明提供相匹配的高性能计算机模拟平台的必要性。初步探讨制约该研究快速发展的有关问题。     

中国近海及其附近海域若干涡旋研究综述 Ⅰ.南海和台湾以东海域

综述了南海和台湾以东海域若干气旋型和反气旋型涡旋研究.在南海存在着许多活跃的中尺度涡,我们分别对南海中、南部海域和南海北部海域中尺度涡作了评述.在南海北部海域,目前最感兴趣的问题为:南海水与西菲律宾海通过吕宋海峡的交换的物理过程,以及黑潮是否以反气旋流套形式进入南海.这些问题目前尚不清楚,尤其是这些问题的机理.这些问题必须通过今后深入和细致的、长时间的海流和水文观测,以及长时间卫星遥感观测资料的论证才能逐渐认识清楚.台湾以东海域,黑潮两侧经常出现中尺度涡,而且变化较大而复杂.文中着重讨论兰屿冷涡和台湾东北的气旋式冷涡.     

黑潮和中国近海环流

本文根据历史资料总结和讨论了黑潮对中国近海环流影响的基本结果,指出经巴士海峡进入南海和沿台湾海峡向北运动的黑潮分支,其年际变化明显,并认为该黑潮分支的运动状况对中国近海特别是南海和东海南部的中、下层环流影响显著,需要作进一步的调查研究。     

Phytoplankton communities in the Bering Sea and adjacent seas

Vertical distribution of phytoplankton in early warming season in the eastern Bering Sea and adjacent sea areas was investigated. In the surface layer which was under the influence of newly melted sea ice in the shelf water region of the Bering Sea in May, remarkably dense populations ofThalassiosira hyalina andT. nordenskiöldii and relatively large populations ofFragilaria andNavicula occupied large part of phytoplankton community. In June, although theThalassiosira populations sunk into the bottom layer and withered, a certain part of theFragilaria-Navicula populations was still suspended in subsurface layer. Thus,Fragilaria-Navicula were the leading components of the June community in the shelf region.In the Bering Basin region, no dense phytoplankton populations were developed until a shallow thermocline was established. In June when the shallow thermocline developed near shelf edge,Thalassiosira decipiens burst out. As the shallow thermocline extended from near shelf to central part of the Basin region with surface warming, the areas of blooming also shifted from near shelf to the central part.Contribution No. 73 from the Research Institute of North Pacific Fisheries, Hokkaido University.     

Potential ecological and social benefits of a moratorium on transshipment on the high seas

One way that illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fish catch is laundered into the seafood market is through transshipments at-sea. This practice, which often occurs on the high seas (the areas of ocean beyond national jurisdiction), allows vessels fishing illegally to evade most monitoring and enforcement measures, offload their cargo, and resume fishing without returning to port. At the same time, transshipment at-sea can facilitate trafficking and exploitation of workers who are trapped and abused on fishing vessels. This study gives an overview of high seas transshipment as well as evaluates transshipment at-sea regulations across 17 Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs), which are responsible for regulating fisheries on the high seas. Transshipment at-sea regulations have become increasingly strict in most RFMOs since the late 1990s. However, only five RFMOs have mandated a partial ban, and only a single RFMO, the South East Atlantic Fisheries Organization (SEAFO), has mandated a total ban on transshipment at-sea. A total ban on transshipment at-sea across all RFMOs would support the ability of oversight and enforcement agencies to detect and prevent IUU fishing and also likely reduce human trafficking and forced labor on the high seas.     

Marine spatial planning in the high seas

Although high seas resources are being exploited, reciprocal legal obligations to protect its environment have not been met. Marine spatial planning (MSP) is clearly a practical way forward, particularly for the high seas, where non-spatial monitoring is difficult, and where data gaps obstruct conventional management approaches. To ensure the effective application of MSP in the high seas, however, some institutional reforms are necessary. This paper outlines the main hurdles, summarizes existing high seas spatial protections, presents an example of a high seas marine protected area that resulted through MSP, identifies three institutional priorities, and suggests three immediate steps.     

Maxima for Gaussian seas

The probability distribution of the height of global maximum for a Gaussian random field evolving in time is studied. In particular, the effect of spreading is studied and the role of the wave kinematics is discussed. It is observed that taking into account time dynamics of spatial characteristics results in distributions different from those obtained for the static case. The results are illustrated by computing the derived distribution for different Gaussian seas for three distinct sampling schemes. The resulting distributions are also used to compute return periods for rogue waves.     

中国近海及其附近海域若干涡旋研究综述Ⅱ.东海和琉球群岛以东海域

综述东海和琉球群岛以东海域若干气旋型和反气旋型涡旋的研究.对东海陆架、200m以浅海域,主要讨论了东海西南部反气旋涡、济州岛西南气旋式涡和长江口东北气旋式冷涡.东海两侧和陆坡附近出现了各种不同尺度的涡旋,其动力原因之一是与东海黑潮弯曲现象有很大关系,其次也与地形、琉球群岛存在等有关.东海黑潮有两种类型弯曲:黑潮锋弯曲和黑潮路径弯曲.黑潮第一种弯曲出现了锋面涡旋,评述了锋面涡旋的存在时间尺度与空间尺度和结构等;也指出了黑潮第二种弯曲,即路径弯曲时在其两侧出现了中尺度气旋式和反气旋涡,讨论了它们的变化的特性.特别讨论了冲绳北段黑潮弯曲路径和中尺度涡的相互作用,着重指出,当气旋式涡在冲绳海槽北段成长,并充分地发展,其周期约在1~3个月时,它的空间尺度成长到约为200km(此尺度相当于冲绳海槽的纬向尺度)时,黑潮路径从北段转移到南段.也分析了东海黑潮流量和其附近中尺度涡的相互作用.最后指出在琉球群岛以东、以南海域,经常出现各种不同的中尺度反气旋式和气旋式涡,讨论了它们在时间与空间尺度上变化的特征.     

Postglacial paleoceanographic environments in the Barents and Baltic seas

This paper presents reconstructions of ice sheet boundaries, lacustrine and marine paleobasins, as well as the connections of the Barents and Baltic seas with the North Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. The reconstructions are based on original and published data obtained from the northern and western parts of the Barents Sea and Baltic depressions with account for the available regional schematic maps of deglaciation. The early deglaciation of the Scandinavian–Barents ice sheet culminated with the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (14.5–12.9 cal ka BP), which was characterized by a more vigorous Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a corresponding increase in surface Atlantic water inflow into the Barents Sea through deep troughs. The Baltic Ice Lake (BIL) remained a dammed-up isolated basin during deglaciation from 16.0 to 11.7 cal ka BP. In the Younger Dryas (YD), the lake drained into the North Sea and was replaced by a brackish Yoldia Sea (YS) at the beginning of the Holocene (Preboreal, 11.7–10.7 cal ka BP), due to a limited connection between two basins through the Närke Strait. In the Barents Sea, the next increase in the Atlantic water influx into the deep basins corresponded to terminal YD and Preboreal events with a culmination in the Early Holocene. The Yoldia Sea became a lake again during the next stage, the Ancylus (~10.7–8.8 cal ka BP). Atlantic water inflow both into the Barents and Baltic seas varied during the Holocene, with a maximum contribution in the Early Holocene, when the Littorina Sea (LS, 8–4 cal ka BP) connection with the North Sea via the Danish Straits was formed to replace the Ancylus Lake. The recent, post-Littorina stage (PS, the last 4 cal ka) of the Baltic Sea evolution began in the Late Holocene.