中国城市人口规模结构的重构(一)

这是一项涉及中国城市的基础研究。 城市人口规模是国内外城市研究使用最多的统计指标。迄今为止,国内的统计出版物和所有的城市研究仍以城市市区的户籍非农业人口和市区户籍总人口作为城市人口规模的指标。但是,这两个指标都已经不能很好地反映城市的实际规模。本文分析五普资料,建议以“市人口”来定义城市人口规模;评价了它的利弊;首次整理提供了2000年全国前100位城市的人口规模。试图通过这些基础工作重构我国城市人口的规模结构。     

The American Community Survey: Warmer (More Current), but Fuzzier (Less Precise) than the Decennial Census

The American Community Survey, which will replace data many planners rely on from the decennial Census long form, is finally in progress. The first nationwide data for places of 65,000 or more was released in the summer of 2006. It has several interesting implications for planning. On the one hand, more current data will eliminate many of the inaccuracies introduced by projection-based updates of stale census data. On the other, smaller sample sizes will mean we will have less precise estimates. Because the ACS will use averaged rather than point-in-time data, it will measure slightly different things than the decennial census. Finally, planners should be alert to the opportunities they will have to improve local data quality by improving the address file from which the sample is drawn.     

Comparison of ward population estimates from FHSA patient registers with the 1991 Census

"Postcode addresses from National Health Service patient registers for Norfolk and Suffolk [counties in England] current on census day 1991 were assigned to census wards, and estimates of populations in wards were produced for the total population and for twelve age-sex groups. These were compared with adjusted counts of usual residents from the 1991 Census." The results indicate that family health service authority registers "are an acceptable alternative to the census for population estimation purposes. This supports recent arguments for wider use of population registers and suggests that they may be particularly valuable as a source of intercensal information."     

James N. Levitt (Ed.). (2014). Conservation Catalysts: The Academy as Nature's Agent. Cambridge,MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. 368 pages. $30.00 (paperback).

Obtaining good estimates of local populations and subpopulations is always a problem with urban planners. One method widely used for this purpose is to count dwelling units and then multiply by a household population multiplier. A great weakness of this approach—the appropriateness of the multiplier used—can be improved upon using a data source known as the census public use samples. These samples of household records from the 1970 U.S. census of population provide a basis for tailor-made household population multipliers. Multipliers can be selected to be appropriate to the region, type of city, the neighborhood, type and age of structure, and for other observable characteristics of the dwelling unit. Tests reported in this article indicate that the multipliers to be obtained from the public use samples compare extremely well with the best available elsewhere. Further, they are available at a cost which is a tiny fraction of that for customary survey sources of data.     

Ecological fallacies and the analysis of areal census data

The author examines problems related to the fact that in many countries, census data are only reported for areal units and not at the individual level. Attention is paid to the question of ecological fallacy problems that arise from this situation. Data from a 10 percent sample of the United Kingdom population and individual census data from Italy are used to illustrate the problem. "It is concluded that ecological fallacy effects are endemic to areal census data, although their magnitude is perhaps not as large as might have been expected. The principal difficulty is that there is at present no way of predicting in advance the degree of severity likely to be associated with particular variables and particular techniques. Finally, a suggestion is made concerning how the potentially serious practical consequences can be reduced."     

Algorithms for reengineering 1991 census geography

"The availability of GIS [geographic information systems] technology and digital boundaries of census output areas now makes it possible for users to design their own census geography. Three algorithms are described that can be used for this purpose. An Arc/Info implementation is briefly outlined and case studies presented to demonstrate some of the results of explicitly designing zoning systems for use with 1991 [U.K.] census data."     

Ethnic minority unemployment and local labour market conditions in Great Britain

"The authors use the 2% Individual Sample of Anonymised Records (SAR) in conjunction with area-based census data for pseudo travel-to-work areas, to explore the relative importance of individual characteristics and area characteristics on ethnic minority unemployment rates [in Great Britain].... The most important differences in the propensity to unemployment are shown to be between individuals, and, compared with whites, ethnic minority groups are shown to be disadvantaged wherever they live.... In all, it is argued that at the spatial scale which is identifiable in the Individual SAR, ethnic minority unemployment cannot be attributed to geographical distribution, though data at a finer geographical scale are needed to test this hypothesis more fully."     

武汉市地理国情普查数据质量检查内容探讨

地理国情普查的核心和关键是保证数据的全面、真实、准确,质量是地理国情普查的根本。在开展武汉市地理国情普查时,参考国家、省有关标准规范要求,依据武汉市实际情况,建立牢靠的质量保证体系。本文依据武汉市实际做法,探索地理国情普查质量检查的内容明细和工作流程,为提高普查成果质量奠定基础。     

Statistical analysis of spatial data in the presence of missing observations: a methodological guide and an application to urban census data

"In this paper a simple introduction and guide to a widely applicable method for estimating missing data in fields of enquiry such as census maps or LANDSAT images are presented. The method given is a maximum likelihood procedure.... The algorithm is presented in the form of a simple tutorial guide. An example, of median income levels in Houston [Texas], is worked through in detail for missing cells in census data. The example is characterised by a variable mean and a general variance-covariance matrix."     

城市排水防涝设施普查思路及方法分析

城市排水防涝设施普查工作对城市内涝问题的解决具有重要意义。首先分析开展城市排水防涝设施普查工作的总体思路,通过普查内容、现状数据分析及普查实施等方面来阐述数据采集方法,概括数据采集工作要点,分析普查数据在城市建设与规划工作中的应用,最后提出城市排水防涝设施普查工作的重要性。     

The distribution of population and employment in a polycentric city: the case of Los Angeles

"The distribution of population and employment in metropolitan Los Angeles in 1970 and 1980 is examined in this paper. Population continued to disperse in the 1970s, whereas the geographical distribution of employment combined job clustering around a few major employment centers with a high degree of general job dispersion. In Los Angeles polycentrism has been associated with shorter work trips, particularly intracounty trips in the more peripheral counties." Population data are for 2,403 comparable census tracts for 1970 and 1980; data concerning geographical employment distribution are from the 1980 census.     

Indexing the census: a by-product of the simulation of whole populations by means of SAS and SAR data

"Amongst the new output formats adopted for the 1991 [U.K.] census were the Small Area and Local Base Statistics tables and the Samples of Anonymised Records. During an attempt to combine these data sources to estimate whole populations, a need was recognised for a computer algorithm to aggregate SAR data flexibly into LBS and SAS table look-alikes. This paper is a report on progress in the development of such an algorithm, including the concomitant development of a meta-database of census tables and variables required as an input to the algorithm. Out of this work a user-friendly, freely disseminable version of the census meta-database has been created, of interest to all census users."     

Assessment of building cooling energy need through a quasi-steady state model: Simplified correlation for gain-loss mismatch

The objective of this work is to implement a simplified calculation procedure for building net energy need, based on a quasi-steady state model and on a monthly data set. In particular, it is intended to supply a formulation of the dynamic parameters and to adapt them to Italian climatic, typological, constructive and user data. The method was validated by determining the numerical correlations of the gain/loss utilization factor, through a comparison with a detailed building energy simulation software (EnergyPlus). The simulation was run on some test rooms defined by CEN (European Committee for Standardization) and on some real buildings that are representative of the Italian building stock, assuming weather data from different Italian locations (Torino, Roma, Palermo). The work shows that the accuracy of results is greatly affected by nonlinearities in the determination of the heat transfer and that the dynamic parameters are sensitive to some building features which are not taken into account in the CEN correlations.     

DERIVING PLACE-SPECIFIC MEASURES OF THE RENTAL HOUSING CRISIS FROM THE 1980 CENSUS: AN APPLICATION FROM TEXAS

The argument is advanced that rental affordability problems are the key symptom of the rental housing crisis. These problems may be measured by the rent-to-income ratio as reported by the 1980 census for five different income groups. Of special significance is that these data are available in a standardized form for every county, city and census tract in the nation. To demonstrate the use of these data, a rent burden indicator is constructed from these data and then applied to all counties in Texas with at least 100,000 population. One county, Travis, stands out with a particularly high incidence of rent burden, and this incidence is only slightly reduced when the rent burden indicator is adjusted to a standardized income distribution. This provides clear evidence of an unusually severe rental housing crisis.     

A NEW WAY OF REVITALIZING DISTRESSED URBAN COMMUNITIES? ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF THE FEDERAL EMPOWERMENT ZONE PROGRAM

ABSTRACT: The Empowerment Zone and Enterprise Community Initiative of 1993 offered targeted funding and tax incentives to distressed urban and rural communities. This initiative required a community‐involvement component, setting it apart from more traditional economic development initiatives of the Reagan and Bush administrations. Using reports required by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and census data, this study examines the programmatic emphases of four of the original six urban zones and evaluates the overall impact of zone programs on socioeconomic trends. These trends are evaluated by matching zone‐designated census tracts to nonzone tracts through a propensity‐score matching model using 1990 census data. Trends in poverty and other socioeconomic outcomes are measured by 1990–2000 change at the census tract level for individual zones, as well as across all zones using a series of fixed‐effect models. Findings indicate that community building and involvement initiatives received the least amount of funding. Traditional economic development programs received the most emphasis but this did not translate into positive socioeconomic outcomes. With the exception of a few isolated incidences where individual zones fared better than comparison areas, zone initiatives had little impact.     

Stratification of a cityscape using census and land use variables for inventory of building materials

A cityscape (or any landscape) can be stratified into environmental units using multiple variables of information. For the purposes of sampling building materials, census and land use variables were used to identify similar strata. In the Metropolitan Statistical Area of a cityscape, the census tract is the smallest unit for which census data are summarized and digitized boundaries are available. For purposes of this analysis, census data on total population, total number of housing units, and number of singleunit dwellings were aggregated into variables of persons per square kilometer and proportion of housing units in single-unit dwellings. The level 2 categories of the U.S. Geological Survey's land use and land cover data base were aggregated into variables of proportion of residential land with buildings, proportion of nonresidential land with buildings, and proportion of open land. The cityscape was stratified, from these variables, into environmental strata of Urban Central Business District, Urban Livelihood Industrial Commercial, Urban Multi-Family Residential, Urban Single Family Residential, Non-Urban Suburbanizing, and Non-Urban Rural.The New England region was chosen as a region with commonality of building materials, and a procedure developed for trial classification of census tracts into one of the strata. Final stratification was performed by discriminant analysis using the trial classification and prior probabilities as weights. The procedure was applied to several cities, and the results analyzed by correlation analysis from a field sample of building materials.The methodology developed for stratification of a cityscape using multiple variables has application to many other types of environmental studies, including forest inventory, hydrologic unit management, waste disposal, transportation studies, and other urban studies. Multivariate analysis techniques have recently been used for urban stratification in England.This research has been funded as part of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program by the National Park Service and U.S. Geological Survey.     

Linkage of the 1981 and 1991 U.K. censuses using surface modelling concepts

Problems involving the comparative analysis of data for the 1981 and 1991 U.K. censuses are explored. The authors note that "the integration of 1981 and 1991 data is far from straightforward because of changes in census geography and definitions, in the administration of the census, and in the format and nature of the data. It is explained how, by a further refinement of population surface modelling concepts, these two data sets can be transformed into a single, consistent geographical database independent of the two original and inconsistent zonal structures....The resulting models permit intercensal analysis with considerable spatial flexibility and a number of computational advantages. Illustration is made of the types of analysis that can be supported, and attention is drawn to the availability of the remodelled data to the academic community."     

南京市地理国情普查工作中行业专题资料的收集和利用

行业专题资料在地理国情普查工作中发挥着重要作用,如何有效收集各行各业不同载体、不同格式、不同尺度、不同时点的行业专题资料并加以利用,对地理国情普查成果数据的后期利用,特别是统计分析工作起着至关重要的作用。本文详述了南京市地理国情普查工作中行业专题资料的收集过程和资料的分析利用,可为其他城市地理国情普查工作提供一定的借鉴作用。     

FEMALE-HEADED FAMILIES: Social and Economic Context of Racial Differences

ABSTRACT: Three explanations of the high and rising incidence of female-headed families and of racial differences in family structure are compared empirically. These are the cultural thesis, the female autonomy thesis, and the marriage market thesis. The analysis is contextual and draws upon data from the 1990 Public Use Microdata sample, as well as other census materials. The authors found that black and white women are influenced by different sets of contextual factors and that the probability that black women with children will be heads of family is significantly related to the economic marginality and relative number of black males in the community within which they reside.     

Visualizing changing social structure from a census

"In this paper it is shown how new visualization techniques are being used to analyze the first results of the British 1991 Census and other large data sets." The focus is on new ways to show how localities develop over time. The author suggests that this cannot be done effectively using traditional quantitative techniques. "Pictures are needed to show how different processes occur in different places, and holistic patterns need also to be seen without generalizing out the detail. Neither traditional thematic mapping nor commercial geographic information systems can do this well. Spatial visualization is an alternative approach in which the researchers choose what they wish to see and how they wish to view it. Many problems require new methods of visualization for their exploration. A new census presents us not only with new statistics, but also with the opportunity and impetus to develop radically different ways of envisioning information to reveal more fully the human facts contained within a mass of social statistics."