中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。     

中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。     

基于网格的暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价

评估暴雨洪涝灾害风险,对于制定暴雨洪涝灾害区域防灾减灾规划具有重要意义。选取哈尔滨市主城区为研究区,以气象数据、社会经济数据和地理信息数据资料为基础,构建0.01°格网,从暴雨致灾因子危险性、暴露度和脆弱性3方面对洪涝灾害进行精细化风险评估与区划。结果表明：哈尔滨主城区洪涝危险性自西北向东南逐渐增加,香坊南部及松北、道里、南岗、道外交汇处受洪涝危害最为严重;暴露度呈现中心高四周低的格局,高风险主要位于绕城高速以内;路网密集地带脆弱性相对较高。洪涝风险呈自西北向东南逐渐增加,东部显著高于西部,主城中心、道外区西部及香坊区大部为高风险区,受洪涝危害严重,应注意城市内涝、交通拥堵等次生影响的防范。     

广州东濠涌流域城市洪涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估

绘制直观与可靠的城市洪涝灾害风险区划图,为城市防洪排涝相关部门决策提供参考依据。以广州市东濠涌流域为研究区域,综合考虑城市降雨、径流、地形和排水系统特性,构建基于InfoWorks ICM的一维-二维耦合城市洪涝仿真模型,模拟暴雨重现期为1年、5年、50年情景下的洪涝过程并获取致灾因子数据。调研分析区域的孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力概况,结合层次分析法、评价等级和阈值划分等进行洪涝灾害风险评估。结果表明:城市洪涝仿真模型在一维排水系统和二维地面淹没模拟上均有较好的精度和可靠性,保证了致灾因子数据的可靠性;风险区划图能较好地反映流域的风险分布;随着重现期增大,较高、高风险区的面积显著增加,为防洪排涝重点关注区域。     

城市洪涝中人体失稳机理与判别标准研究进展

受全球气候变化和人类活动影响,近年来极端降水事件增多,由此引发的城市洪涝灾害频发。行人在洪水作用下易失去稳定,威胁生命安全,研究洪水中人体的失稳机理与判别标准,能为城市洪涝灾害的风险评估与管理提供科学依据。本文首先总结了国内外城市洪涝中人体失稳机理研究的相关成果,评估了现有人体失稳判别标准的适用范围及优缺点。基于力学分析和实测数据率定的计算公式虽然在推导过程中有一定的简化,但能较好地反映洪水中人体失稳的动力学机理,可以评估不同人群与不同洪水条件下的人体稳定性。针对当前城市洪涝中人体稳定性研究存在的不足,需要开展真实洪水中行人逃生以及沿漫水楼梯行走时的失稳机理与判别标准研究,并深入研究行人站立姿势调整对洪水中人体稳定性的影响;还需基于大数据等手段获取互联网上洪水中人体失稳的影像资料,构建洪水中人体失稳的实测数据库;同时还需推动人体失稳判别标准在洪水风险管理中的具体应用,最大程度地降低城市洪涝灾害带来的不利影响。     

上海市防汛辅助决策系统研究

针对威胁上海的三大水灾，研制暴雨积水模型、风暴潮模型、河网水力模型、灾害评估模型，在GIS基础上建立了上海市防汛辅助决策系统，实现了对处于平原感潮河网的上海市洪涝灾害的实时监测、分析预报、风险评估和网上发布。为分析洪涝形势、制定防汛成灾方案、进行灾情评估以及工程管理，提供准确、及时、全面的信息支持。阐述了系统的总体设计、功能模块、关键技术和特色，分析了GIS、水动力学模型在系统中的作用。     

中国城市洪涝问题及成因分析

随着经济社会的发展,中国步入城镇化快速发展的阶段,城镇化率已由2000年的36.22%增加到2014年的54.77%。在全球气候变化与快速城镇化背景下,中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重。阐述了全球气候变化及城镇化对城市降水和极端暴雨的影响机制,并从流域产汇流角度分析了城镇化对洪水过程的影响,系统剖析了中国城市洪涝频发的主要原因。在成因分析的基础上,进一步提出了中国城市洪涝防治的应对策略,主要包括:①以低影响开发理念为指导,加强城市基础设施建设,建设海绵城市;②建立城市洪涝立体监测、预报预警和实时调度系统,强化城市洪涝科学决策能力;③健全和完善城市洪涝应急预案,强化应急管理能力,完善灾害救助和恢复机制。     

特大城市外洪内涝灾害链联防联控关键科学技术问题

近年来,特大城市极端暴雨内涝和流域洪水叠加导致的洪涝灾害风险呈增加趋势,造成了重大人员伤亡和财产损失,亟待开展流域洪水和城市内涝灾害链联防联控研究。融合气象科学、水文科学、信息科学、防灾减灾科学等多学科理论与方法,重点解决城市外洪内涝组合致灾机理与灾害链风险传递规律关键科学问题;突破流域-城市一体化协同监测与早期风险感知技术、城市外洪内涝链生灾害智能预警与定向发布技术、跨尺度洪涝耦合模拟与联合防控场景推演技术、城市洪涝联防联控应急预案编制与智能化决策技术等4项关键技术。构建以空天地气象水文协同观测、社会经济多源信息汇聚分析、灾害动力模型推演为基础的联防联控应急指挥决策业务系统,突出实时性、动态化、精准性和智能化,支撑特大城市外洪内涝全过程预报、预警、预演、预案“四预”业务实践。     

城市洪涝灾害应急疏散模拟及其效率-公平权衡分析

对城市洪涝灾害下的人群疏散过程进行精细化模拟、探究群体疏散效率与个体洪涝风险暴露公平性之间的权衡关系(效率-公平之争)可以为城市洪灾应急管理提供重要决策支撑。本研究以深圳市某居民区为研究区,构建基于主体(Agent-based)的洪灾应急疏散模型,分析疏散人口数量、避难所容量分配、不同风险区居民分批疏散顺序以及批次之间间隔时间等因素对洪灾应急疏散的协同影响,探究疏散过程中效率与公平的权衡关系。研究表明：疏散效率主要受避难所容量分配方式和疏散人口数量影响,疏散公平性主要受不同洪涝风险区居民的疏散次序影响;洪灾应急管理部门应综合考虑人口分布和交通路网情况,按实际需求分配避难所容量;在疏散管理中,应考虑洪涝风险分区,引导居民以一定次序分批疏散,并合理控制批次间隔时间,从而实现城市洪涝疏散效率和公平的权衡。     

高地应力隧道施工期大变形动态风险评估方法及应用

简单实用的隧道大变形风险评估方法对灾害防治和工程应用有重要价值。本文应用指标打分法建立了高地应力隧道施工期大变形动态风险评估方法。应用指标体系打分法建立了包括地质因素、设计因素和施工因素3项一级指标和岩石强度、围岩完整性等18项二级指标的风险评估指标体系,经统计分析确定各指标影响权重。通过现场对各指标进行打分,对照大变形风险可能性等级标准,确定风险可能性等级;通过专家调查对直接经济损失、工期延误进行估计,确定严重程度等级;综合考虑风险发生可能性及损失严重程度,应用风险矩阵法得到风险等级。将所建立的风险评估方法应用于在建汶马高速公路米亚罗3号隧道,评估结果与实际开挖结果一致,验证了此套方法的有效性与实用性。该风险评估方法可为隧道施工期大变形的预防和控制提供科学依据。     

Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters in China between 2004 and 2009 based on gray fixed weight cluster analysis

Rainstorm and flood disasters frequently occur in China, causing heavy losses for people’s lives and property and reducing the capability of sustainable development of the national and local economy. In this study, the risks of the rainstorm and flood disasters are assessed for the Chinese mainland, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan and also employ the historical data of seven indicators, including the affected area of crops, the affected population, the direct economic loss, and etc., from 2004 to 2009. Based on the large 1,302 historical sample data, the impact of rainstorm and flood disasters were analyzed using the methodology of gray fixed weight cluster analysis according to disaster losses, which were divided into the three gray classes of high, medium, and low. The regional differences of the risk assessment of the rainstorm and flood disasters are discussed, and the dynamical risk zoning map is conducted. The results show a consistent conclusion with the actual losses of rainstorm and flood disasters over each administrative district, which can provide more scientific evidence for the relevant departments of disaster prevention and mitigation.     

湖南省新宁县地质灾害经济损失评估

文章介绍了新宁县地质灾害特征,依据区内地质灾害经济损失评估的原则和方法,进行地质灾害现状评估和预测评估,为防治地质灾害提供科学借鉴。评估结果表明：（1）新宁县地质灾害灾情以轻度为主,其中,滑坡88处,崩塌10处,泥石流9处,地面塌陷6处,不稳定斜坡5处,共计118处;中度灾害及重度灾害各1处,皆为泥石流灾害。各类地质灾害已伤亡15人,毁坏城乡房屋333间,毁田44．5hm^2,毁路135m,直接经济损失878．1万元。（2）以新宁县地质灾害危险性分级指标为依据,按照点评估的要求,把新宁县地质灾害划分为高、中等、低三个危险性级别,其中高危险性级别9处,中等危险性级别49处,低危险性级别60处,地质灾害隐患点共威胁着4885人的生命和财产安全,威胁田地282．1hm^2,潜在最大经济损失为5042．1万元。     

暴雨诱发滑坡致灾机理与减灾方法研究进展

暴雨滑坡是多发性的地质灾害.阐述了暴雨诱发滑坡致灾机理、风险评估与减灾方法研究的重要意义.分别从暴雨诱发滑坡的地质力学机制、暴雨诱发滑坡的机理、暴雨诱发滑坡演化过程的数值模拟方法、暴雨滑坡动态风险评估方法以及暴雨诱发滑坡灾害的减灾方法5个方面,详细综述了国内外研究的主要成果和进展.在此基础上,指出了目前暴雨诱发滑坡灾害研究中存在的主要问题.最后,提出了在暴雨诱发滑坡灾害的研究中应以暴雨作用下的斜坡演化动力学过程为主线,以暴雨诱发滑坡的地质力学机制研究为基础,以暴雨诱发滑坡机理研究为核心,以暴雨诱发滑坡灾害的风险评估为手段,以最大可能地防灾减灾为目标.     

山东暴雨洪涝灾害的风险区划与分析

根据暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个一级因子,以山东地区为研究对象,综合考虑降雨、地形地势、河网密度、植被、人口和经济实力、道路交通信息等因子进行风险区划与分析。利用地理信息系统软件（ArcGIS）将上述因子进行归一化来获得标准化的多源栅格数据,结合层次分析法和自然断点法确定相关指标的权重,建立了暴雨洪涝灾害的风险评估模型,最后得到了山东地区暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险区划等级评估图。对研究区进行定性和定量分析后得出结论,山东地区暴雨洪涝灾害发生的高风险区在鲁中西部、鲁南及山东半岛东部沿海部分地区,此结论与历史数据基本吻合。研究结果为预防山东暴雨洪涝灾害提供了参考信息。     

The comprehensive risk evaluation on rainstorm and flood disaster losses in China mainland from 2004 to 2009: based on the triangular gray correlation theory

In this paper, we introduce the gray correlation method of risk evaluation in meteorological disaster losses based on historical disaster data in China (mainland) and apply the improved gray relational analysis model (the triangular gray relational model) to the risk evaluation of rainstorm and flood disaster losses. In addition, we divide the risk grade standards of rainstorm and flood disaster losses according to 186 rainstorm and flood disaster data of four optimization indexes (disaster area, suffered population, collapsed houses, and direct economic losses), evaluate the extent of dynamic rainstorm and flood disaster losses in 31 provinces of China (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan exclusive) comprehensively, and draw China’s zoning map of rainstorm and flood disaster from 2004 to 2009. The method provides reasonable and effective references for national disaster preventions which can be used in other researches focused on risk evaluation of meteorological disaster losses.     

Real-time identification of urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters based on Weibo big data

With the acceleration of urbanisation in China, preventing and reducing the economic losses and casualties caused by urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters have become a critical and difficult issue that the government is concerned about. As urban storms are sudden, clustered, continuous, and cause huge economic losses, it is difficult to conduct emergency management. Developing a more scientific method for real-time disaster identification will help prevent losses over time. Examining social media big data is a feasible method for obtaining on-site disaster data and carrying out disaster risk assessments. This paper presents a real-time identification method for urban-storm disasters using Weibo data. Taking the June 2016 heavy rainstorm in Nanjing as an example, the obtained Weibo data are divided into eight parts for the training data set and two parts for the testing data set. It then performs text pre-processing using the Jieba segmentation module for word segmentation. Then, the term frequency–inverse document frequency method is used to calculate the feature items weights and extract the features. Hashing algorithms are introduced for processing high-dimensional sparse vector matrices. Finally, the naive Bayes, support vector machine, and random forest text classification algorithms are used to train the model, and a test set sample is introduced for testing the model to select the optimal classification algorithm. The experiments showed that the naive Bayes algorithm had the highest macro-average accuracy.     

Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview

Landslides can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. In order to mitigate landslide hazard effectively, new methodologies are required to develop a better understanding of landslide hazard and to make rational decisions on the allocation of funds for management of landslide risk. Recent advances in risk analysis and risk assessment are beginning to provide systematic and rigorous processes to enhance slope management. In recent years, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty inherent in landslide hazards.This article reviews recent advances in landslide risk assessment and management, and discusses the applicability of a variety of approaches to assessing landslide risk. Firstly, a framework for landslide risk assessment and management by which landslide risk can be reduced is proposed. This is followed by a critical review of the current state of research on assessing the probability of landsliding, runout behavior, and vulnerability. Effective management strategies for reducing economic and social losses due to landslides are described. Problems in landslide risk assessment and management are also examined.