金融周期识别与货币政策的选择

近年来,随着金融市场的快速发展,金融体系对实体经济的影响日益增加,金融冲击成为引起经济频繁波动的重要因素,金融市场自身的周期波动对实体经济运行也产生了显著的周期效应.在此背景下,从金融市场和货币政策出发来研究金融周期波动和金融危机形成的内在机制的金融周期理论,逐渐成为经济周期理论研究的一个新兴热点领域.因此,本文试图系统性地研究金融周期,首先,文章梳理了金融周期理论文献的发展脉络,探讨了金融周期波动的两种主要机制,在此基础上,文章描述了我国当前金融运行特点,进一步研究了我国进入金融周期下半场后金融市场所表现的主要特征,最后根据金融周期的特征提出了货币政策建议.     

金融结构演进中资产泡沫与金融危机的形成机制——对中国金融结构发展的启示

20世纪以来货币金融危机成为引发经济周期波动的重要因素.具体表现为资产价格泡沫的形成和破灭通过金融危机的传导影响实体经济,导致经济衰退.但是,在经济和金融制度发展的不同阶段,上述影响的反映不同,目前理论界对于这种影响的传导过程还没有形成一个系统的具有说服力的解释框架.因而,应对资产价格泡沫破灭危机的政策往往显得较为滞后,而政策的实施往往又会成为形成新的资产泡沫的诱因.本文将结合对金融结构演进过程中资产价格泡沫现象的分析,从理论上系统阐述金融结构演进过程中金融危机引发经济危机的传导过程,并结合中国金融结构情况,提出对中国金融制度发展的启示.     

房地产价格波动对区域金融稳定的影响机制研究

一、引言自2003年初我国经济进入新一轮经济上升周期以来,在商业银行各路信贷资金的强力推动下,全国各地的房地产业步入了快速发展的轨道,催生了房地产业的投资热潮。然而,过度投资引起资产价格飞涨,产生了一定程度的房地产泡沫,使得银行的信贷风险不断聚集并逐步放大,已经在某种程度上对区域金融稳定构成威胁。因此,分析房地产价格波动影响区域金融稳定的机制,并且提出相应的金融对策来防范和化解房地产泡沫问题,显得尤其重要和紧迫。二、房地产价格波动影响区域金融稳定的机制房地产泡沫容易通过经济主体的消费投资行为传递至金融系统。由于我国金融体系以间接融资为主体的融资结构承受能力较弱,再加上房地产市场区域发展的非均衡性,一旦房地产价格波动达到一定程度,区域金融稳定难以保障。然而,由于一系列的原因,货币政策在调控房地产价格波动时会遇到一些难点,导致调控效果下降。(一)房地产价格波动扭曲经济主体的消费投资行为房地产价格波动通过改变经济主体的行为方式,从而对实体经济产生广泛的影响。具体而言,房地产价格波动分别通过资产负债表效应和财富效应影响企业投资和居民消费行为,进而影响到社会总需求和总供给的平衡。在信贷市场上,企业筹资的一种典型手段是通...     

房价波动、信贷结构与金融稳定——基于1998-2012年数据的实证分析

资产价格波动尤其是房价波动是金融危机的导火索,直接导致金融市场出现不稳定的态势,进而影响实体经济。本文构建了金融稳定指数与房价波动、股票市值的VAR模型,以探求资产价格波动与信贷结构、金融稳定的格兰杰原因,分析房价波动对金融稳定指数的影响幅度、速度,而经济增长和中长期贷款比例的提高则能在一定程度上改善金融稳定状况。因此,政府当局应健全宏观审慎框架,采取适当的逆周期政策和建立适当的逆周期机制,采取渐进的、温和的、长期统一的政策,实现房价的软着陆,完善和健全多层次的资本市场体系,促进流动性水平的合理释放,发挥资本市场对于金融稳定的正面作用。     

人口年龄结构、房价与金融稳定研究

不同年龄段人群的收入、需求存在明显的特点,这些特点会导致各年龄群体的经济行为产生差异,人口年龄结构变化会通过这些群体的行为形成合力影响经济运行和金融稳定.人们的住房需求和投资需求是影响房价变化的主要原因,我国金融市场以间接金融为主,房价波动势必会对商业银行产生冲击,房价的中长期波动不仅影响商业银行的不良贷款率,还可能引发金融市场的动荡.我国人口年龄结构变化是否会通过影响房价波动最终影响商业银行信贷资产质量,国内还缺乏系统的研究文献.本文在前人的研究基础之上,构建了数理模型论证人口出生率变化如何影房价并进而影响金融稳定的过程,并利用面板数据联立方程模型对中国人口年龄结构对房价和银行不良贷款率的影响进行了综合考察.     

论中国的“金融超发展”北大核心CSSCISSCI

金融对经济发展的正面作用毋庸置疑,但若金融发展超过实体经济发展达到一定程度时,是否反而会对经济增长产生负的影响?针对这一问题,本文提出了"金融超发展"的概念,意指当金融部门发展相对于实体部门发展"超"过一定程度,会带来资源的次优配置,并容易引发系统性风险,不利于经济的增长。通过修正的AK模型,本文对"金融超发展"的机理进行了阐述,并选取不同区间的中国省级面板数据,采用一阶差分广义矩估计(FD-GMM)方法对中国是否存在"金融超发展"现象进行了分析。实证研究的结果发现,在控制了影响经济增长的其他因素之后,金融发展对于经济增长的影响是非线性的。若金融部门超过实体部门发展达到一定程度时,会对经济增长产生负的影响作用。     

金融泡沫形成与防范——理论机制与基于实验的经验证据

防控金融资产泡沫是防范系统性金融风险的重中之重。实验金融学对金融泡沫的研究弥补了传统经济学研究的不足,拓展了对金融泡沫的认知边界。从金融泡沫产生的原因来看,实验金融学文献为有限理性假说提供了充足的证据,这些文献发现交易者本身并非是理性的,他们对金融资产价格的内在基本价值估计存在偏差或者混淆、或是具有先验的异质信念、抑或受到情绪的影响,从而导致金融泡沫的产生。从预防和抑制金融泡沫的制度设计和相关政策研究方面来看,实验金融学的研究成果发现熔断机制、涨跌停限制、卖空制度等都无法有效地抑制金融泡沫,而金融衍生品、合理的市场交易制度等可以有效减少金融泡沫。这些具有洞见性的实验研究证据,为我们下一步的学术研究与政策制定提供了良好的理论与方法基础。     

关于中国投资银行资产结构先行于企业景气指数的实证研究——基于26家上市券商的面板数据

本文主要研究金融市场的前景预测和风险偏好是否会对实体经济的发展产生影响,采用了权益乘数和净资本风险准备金比例等指标量化投资银行的资产结构,建立模型,得到了企业景气指数可以较好地被投资银行滞后两年的权益乘数和滞后三年的风险准备金净资本比例拟合的结论。因此,中国投资银行的资产结构可以在一定程度上用来预测企业景气指数,金融市场的发展对于实体经济的发展具有先行的引领作用。     

金融加速器理论研究综述

传统的经济周期理论无法解释金融市场变化如何使得真实经济出现大幅度波动,伯克南等提出的金融加速器理论则为我们理解金融市场在经济周期中的作用提供了一个很好的视角。本文梳理了金融加速器理论产生背景和发展脉络,基于金融加速器的视角透视了资产价格变动和经济波动,金融系统顺周期等现实问题,并介绍了这一理论的最新进展情况及进一步研究的方向。     

金融加速器理论研究综述

传统的经济周期理论无法解释金融市场变化如何使得真实经济出现大幅度波动,伯克南等提出的金融加速器理论则为我们理解金融市场在经济周期中的作用提供了一个很好的视角。本文梳理了金融加速器理论产生背景和发展脉络,基于金融加速器的视角透视了资产价格变动和经济波动,金融系统顺周期等现实问题,并介绍了这一理论的最新进展情况及进一步研究的方向。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:     

The China puzzle: Opportunities for accounting research

How can China achieve phenomenal economic growth despite what is considered as 'weak' institutions in market-based economies? Xu(2011) provides a framework to u...