工程项目风险管理及综合评价探讨

从我国工程项目管理实践中存在的不足入手,论述实施风险项目管理的可行性,建立了风险项目管理的流程,设计了风险库等管理工具,并以实际案例介绍了风险项目管理的应用.     

中国与东盟农产品贸易竞争关系——基于出口相似性指数的实证分析

本文利用出口相似性指数分别从产品和市场两个角度分析了中国与东盟国家农产品贸易竞争关系的强弱及其变化趋势。研究结果表明:中国与东盟国家农产品贸易的市场相似性指数高于产品相似性指数,农产品出口产品结构的差异决定了中国与东盟的农产品贸易关系不是以竞争为主;中国与东盟农业领域内的合作将有利于强化产品差异、缓解农产品市场竞争程度。     

Fiscal Cyclicality in the Brazilian Economy: Something Is Changing

This article provides empirical evidence of the degree of fiscal cyclicality in the Brazilian economy from 2000 to 2010. The degree of fiscal cyclicality is estimated through OLS and GMM models for three different time samples with the objective of observing a change in the stance in the conduct of fiscal policy. The fiscal policy from January 2000 to December 2010 was countercyclical. However from 2000 to 2007 the search for credibility implied a cyclical fiscal policy. In contrast, after 2007, the possibility of using a countercyclical fiscal policy became feasible.     

中国与日本、韩国农产品贸易的竞争关系研究——基于出口相似性指数的实证分析

利用出口相似性指数分别从产品和市场两个角度分析了中国与日本、韩国农产品贸易竞争关系的强弱及其变化趋势。结果表明:中国与日本、韩国农产品贸易的产品相似性指数高于市场相似性指数,农产品出口市场结构的巨大差异决定了中国与日本、韩国的农产品贸易关系不是以竞争为主;中国与日本、韩国农业领域内的合作将有利于强化产品差异、缓解农产品竞争程度。     

Similarity in trade structure: Evidence from ASEAN + 3

The present paper aims to explore the competition in exports among ASEAN + 3 members by applying the export similarity index for the disaggregation export data from 1990 to 2014. We also discuss the changes of comparative advantage of ASEAN + 3's exports through the revealed comparative advantage index and its relation with similarity index. First, the results support the idea that export similarity varies among ASEAN + 3 member states over the period 1990–2014. Second, we find evidence of several export communities. In particular, five countries, notably China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea, with the highest similarity index form an export community mainly in the electronic microcircuits and parts of office machines. Third, the revealed comparative advantage seems to be the key factor defining the similarity level of exports. Finally, the revealed comparative advantage analysis partly allows us to verify the Ricardo's theory and New Trade theory in the context of ASEAN + 3 trade integration.     

东盟农产品在我国市场的表现及竞争力研究

本文运用市场占有率和排名、贸易强度指数、贸易相似度指数对东盟在我国市场的表现及竞争状况进行了分析。研究表明:近年来,东盟在我国市场的开发程度达到了较高水平、东盟主要国家的农产品在我国市场上具有较强的竞争力,其市场占有率位居前十位。文章的研究结论可为今后我国与东盟农产品贸易提供借鉴。     

An Application of Focus Theory to Project Management Processes

This article presents the findings of an exploratory study of the degree to which Focus Theory, a general theory about group productivity, can be used to improve the productivity of project management activities. Guided by the theory and the principles of collaboration engineering, we developed a collaborative template for project progress status reporting. We evaluated the template in both face-to-face and distributed group interactions. The study indicated that a collaborative template helped structure status reporting activity and provided a permanent record of project status for future reference. As a result, it was efficient and effective for team leaders to prepare topics for project status meetings by using the template. The meetings became focused on topics outlined on the template and meeting participants commented that the meeting record helped them keep track of what had been either accomplished or decided. The major limitation observed for use of the template was that, when used in distributed and synchronous interactions, it needed to be augmented by voice communication because communication in text-only format, as provided by the template, was too time-consuming. We discuss implications of the research outcomes with respect to the usefulness and limitations of Focus Theory.     

基于谱聚类的用户关联关系挖掘

为了从用户地理空间分布数据中挖掘用户间关联关系,提出了一种基于谱聚类的关联关系挖掘算法。首先定义了关联度,用以衡量用户之间空间分布的相似性,基于关联度构造相似矩阵,再利用谱聚类方法对用户进行聚类分析,聚类结果表征了用户的关联关系。采用Silhouette指标和聚类准确率来衡量用户关系挖掘质量,同时与传统的K-Means方法进行了比较,通过真实数据集实验,结果表明该算法在实验数据集上能达到90%以上的聚类准确率,证明方法有效、可行。     

中国与巴西双边贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

作为两大新兴经济体,中国和巴西双边贸易的发展对世界市场的发展具有不容忽视的影响。本文在描述中巴双边贸易发展现状的基础上,通过出口产品相似度、双边贸易结合度以及产业内贸易指数、显示性比较优势指数等指标,对中巴双边贸易的竞争性和互补性进行了分析。结果显示,中巴贸易结构差异明显,双边贸易结构具有较强的互补性。在进一步扩大贸易规模的同时,中巴双方可在农业领域、资源领域以及基础设施领域等双方的供需结合点提高投资与贸易合作。     

浅析项目信息管理的实现

论述了项目信息管理的内容、功能和过程。项目信息管理是项目管理中的一项重要工作,通过系统化的项目信息管理能够保障项目成功高效地完成。     

Developing Maturity Models for IT Management

Maturity models are valuable instruments for IT managers because they allow the assessment of the current situation of a company as well as the identification of reasonable improvement measures. Over the last few years, more than a hundred maturity models have been developed to support IT management. They address a broad range of different application areas, comprising holistic assessments of IT management as well as appraisals of specific subareas (e. g. Business Process Management, Business Intelligence). The evergrowing number of maturity models indicates a certain degree of arbitrariness concerning their development processes. Especially, this is highlighted by incomplete documentation of methodologies applied for maturity model development.     

广东与东盟农产品贸易的竞争性与互补性分析

文章运用出口相似性指数、贸易互补性指数对广东与东盟农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性进行的分析表明:在世界市场上,广东和东盟存在着激烈的竞争关系,从时间序列来看,最近几年竞争程度有所减弱;广东出口与东盟进口的贸易互补性在不断减弱,而广东进口与东盟国家出口的互补性在不断增强,广东与东盟农产品贸易之间存在一定的互补性.     

融合梯度和色度信息的分块均值漂移目标跟踪

针对在相似颜色干扰场景下传统均值漂移目标跟踪鲁棒性差的缺陷,提出Prewitt梯度和色度信息融合的分块均值漂移跟踪算法。首先,对跟踪框进行分块,并提取当前帧各子块特征;其次,利用Bhattacharyya距离计算参考目标区域与候选区域间各子块对应的相似程度,根据其相似程度分配各子块的权值,并通过融合规则对各子块相应特征进行融合构成新子块特征,在此基础上,将子块特征选择串接方式作为最终目标特征;最后,采用均值偏移原理迭代估计最终目标位置信息。实验结果表明,当场景中存在相似颜色干扰的情况下,相对于经典均值漂移算法,其准确度提高了84%左右。     

Some Empirical Evidence of Chinese Accounting System and Business Management Practices from an Ethical Perspective

China is moving from a centralized to a market economy to bring about efficiency in its economy and to form a business partnership with the West. With its reform adopting an open-door policy, there may be a need to assure its partners in the western world that appropriate steps would be taken to develop and foster a business culture with which the western countries and the Chinese businesses can work. The present study attempted to find whether there has been a change in business ethical culture, accounting system and practice in the Chinese business between 1978 and the present, and the degree of similarity in the Chinese ethics and guidelines compared to Western ethics and guidelines. The result of the study has been analyzed from an institutional perspective to explore institutional change. The result showed that there is general growing support of Chinese management toward change in business ethical culture and practice. It was observed that there was not much similarity in the documents used for ethical guidance and control with those of the West. The findings of the paper are expected to be relevant to international investors and executives interested in investing or working in China.     

建筑企业项目管理的探讨

近几年来，城市建设飞速发展，当你穿过市区的各大街道时，会发现一座座高层公寓、大型商厦、高级办公写字楼拔地而起，作为建筑业的一员在欣赏这座座雄伟的建筑时，既感到欣喜与自豪，又生出一层深深的思考与忧虑。我们的建筑企业怎样才能在市场竞争中立于不败之地呢？笔者认为关键要练好内功，即狠抓企业内部管理。管理工作是一切工作的龙头，只有抓好管理工作，才能促进企业的不断发展与进步。     

The evolution of corporate governance in Brazil

We use extensive hand collected surveys reporting governance practices of Brazilian firms in 2004, 2006, and 2009 to build a broad corporate governance index and analyze the evolution of corporate governance in Brazil and the association between governance and firm value. We find that corporate governance practices improved significantly over this period. This evolution is due to two main factors: 1) growth in Novo Mercado and Level II (NM&L2) listings, mainly through IPOs by new firms, and 2) improved practices at non-NM&L2 firms, principally through adopting governance elements required for NM&L2 listing. Governance practices for firms already listed on NM&L2 were stable. Adoption of the elements of our governance index that are required for NM&L2 listing predicts higher firm value. In contrast, adoption of the remaining elements of our index does not predict firm value. Thus, governance changes appear to respond to investor preferences.     

项目管理研究综述

对项目的实践始于人类的分工协作,项目管理古来便有。人类对项目的认识及项目管理的水平随工程及工程管理的实践而逐步深入。人类最早的项目管理实践始于金字塔和万里长城,古代的项目管理基于艺术,即个人经验、智慧、直觉、才能、天赋等,缺乏科学的方法体系、明确的技术标准与作业规范。第一次世界大战期间的1917年,亨利·L·甘特发明了甘特图,甘特图的主要目的是为作业排序。项目管理作为规范的学科始于第二次世界大战期间。最经典的案例是美国军方的“曼哈顿计划”(1942—1945)。二战结束后的冷战时期,项目管理的实践以美国为中心得到进一步的发展。如1957年的关键路径法(CPM);1958年的计划评审技术(PERT),由美国海军特种计划局和洛克希德航空公司在研制“北极星”导弹潜艇的项目中发明应用。90年代末至今,社会步入知识和信息时代。业界和学界开始实践及研究如何对项目进行集成化管理,项目管理由此进入多项目管理阶段。     

Conflicting Bifuzzy Multi-attribute Group Decision Making Model with Application to Flood Control Project

We propose a group decision making model based on conflicting bifuzzy sets (CBFS) where evaluation are bi-valued in accordance to the subjective assessment obtained from the experts for the positive and negative views. This paper discusses the weighting methods for particular attribute and subattribute with emphasis given to the unification of subjective and objective weights. The integration of CBFS in the model is naturally done by extending the fuzzy evaluation in parallel with the intuitionistic fuzzy. We introduce a new technique to compute the similarity measure, being the degree of agreement between the experts. We end up the paper by demonstrating the applicability of the proposed model to the empirical case of flood control project, one of the project selection problems.     

AIDS Policy and Pharmaceutical Patents: Brazil's Strategy to Safeguard Public Health

Developing nations are challenged to strike a balance between their patent obligations as members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and their drug pricing strategies. The Brazilian approach to pharmaceutical price negotiations has been strikingly effective. Describing the context of the Brazilian pharmaceutical sector, their public health system and the Brazilian AIDS policy, this paper examines the Brazilian strategy vis‐à‐vis the international pharmaceutical manufacturers to explore why their tactics were successful and the potential for wider application by other developing countries.     

Factors for Success in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Systems

The importance of effective customer relationships as a key to customer value and hence shareholder value is widely emphasised. In order to enhance these relationships, the application of IT to marketing through customer relationship management (CRM) software, e-commerce and other initiatives is growing rapidly. This study examines the factors that influence the successful deployment of CRM applications, with particular emphasis on those factors which are distinct from other areas of application. Using the analytic induction method, success factors were derived from five in-depth case studies. Resulting factors underemphasised in previous literature include: the need for project approval procedures which allow for uncertainty; the need to leverage models of best practice; the importance of prototyping new processes, not just IT; and the need to manage for the delivery of the intended benefits, rather than just implementing the original specification.