Intermediate-term seismic precursors for some coupled subduction zones

The paper discusses model results and then reviews observational data concerning some aspects of the mechanics of mature seismic gaps in coupled subduction zones. The concern is with space-and time-varying stresses, as signalled by the presence and mechanisms of earthquakes in the outer-rise zones adjacent to main thrust areas of large subduction events, and down-dip from such areas, in the downgoing slab. Observations are shown to be consistent with the expectation that in mature seismic gaps, as a result of interplate boundary locking in presence of sustained gravitational driving forces, at least the deeper portions of the ocean plate in the outer-rise zones are under increased compression, and the downgoing slab is under increased tension. The observational data cover two cases of closed seismic gaps, namely the region of the Chilean Valparaiso earthquake of March 3, 1985, and the earthquake of October 4, 1983. Four other cases concern still to-be-closed gaps in northern Chile and along the coast of Guatemala, and also the Kurile Islands Trench gap and the northern New Hebrides gap. It is concluded that the intermediate-term precursor, consisting of a combination of compressional outer-rise earthquake(s) and tensional intermediate-depth, intra-plate events in the downgoing slab, which mechanically signals the latter part of the earthquake cycle, could be useful in evaluating the maturity, and hence great earthquake potential of a seismic gap.     

The April 9, 2001 Juan Fernández Ridge (M w 6.7) Tensional Outer-Rise Earthquake and its Aftershock Sequence

On April 9, 2001 a M _w 6.7 earthquake occurred offshore of the Chilean coast close to the intersection of the subducting Juan Fernández Ridge (JFR) and the trench near 33°S. The mainshock as well as an unprecedented number of aftershocks were recorded on regional broad-band and short-period seismic networks. We obtained a regional moment tensor solution of the mainshock that indcates a tensional focal mechanism consistent with the Harvard CMT solution. Based on waveform modeling and relocation, the depth of the mainshock was found to be 10–12 km. We relocated 142 aftershocks, which are strongly clustered and restricted to 10–30 km in depth. The seismicity distribution indicates a conjugate normal fault system extending into the lithospheric mantle that correlates with ridge-parallel fractures observed by previous seismic and bathymetric surveys. In conjunction with the historic regional distribution of outer-rise and large interplate seismicity, our results indicate that, with the exception of anomalously large thrust events, preexisting fractures associated with large bathymetric features like ridges have to exist to allow the generation of outer-rise seismicity along the Chilean margin. Hence, flexural bending and time-dependent interplate earthquakes can locally affect the nucleation of outer-rise events. The occurrence of the outer-rise seismicity in the oceanic mantle suggests the existence of lithospheric scale faults which might act as conduits to hydrate the subducting slab.Robert Fromm-Rhim passed away July 31st, 2004.     

Characteristics of the low energy seismicity of central Apulia (southern Italy) and hazard implications

The central part of the Apulia region, in southern Italy, has been generally considered practically free from significant level of seismicity, but historical documentation, geological indicators and recent instrumental observations suggest that the activity of local minor tectonic structures could have been masked (and partly also induced) by that of major seismogenic structures located in the neighbouring regions. A revision of the central Apulia seismicity characteristics was conducted considering its space and time distribution, energy release rate and focal mechanisms, in view of possible hazard implications. To better constrain the seismicity rates inferable from the set of available historical data, special attention was paid to the declustering of a catalogue of low energy events (magnitude < 3.5) instrumentally detected in about 20 years: a new declustering procedure, useful for cases like to the one at hand, was purposely devised taking into account the peculiarity of local seismicity characteristics and the limitations of the available database. The results obtained by combining instrumental and historical data show that this area is affected by a rather sporadic seismicity, likely associated to a general tensional regime and possibly stimulated by the interaction with Apenninic and northern Apulia seismogenic activity. Even though less energetic, the local seismicity contributes to increase the moderately damaging shaking probability due to the activity of seismic sources located in the near areas, so to justify the adoption of at least a minimum level of caution in relation to the local definition of seismic protection measures.     

Partial breaking of a mature seismic gap: The 1987 earthquakes in New Britain

To better understand the mechanics of subduction and the process of breaking a mature seismic gap, we study seismic activity along the western New Britain subduction segment (147°E–151°E, 4°S–8°S) through earthquakes withm _b 5.0 in the outer-rise, the upper area of subducting slab and at intermediate depths to 250 km, from January 1964 to December 1990. The segment last broke fully in large earthquakes of December, 28, 1945 (M _s =7.9) and May 6, 1947 (M _s =7.7.), and its higher seismic potential has been recognized byMcCann et al., (1979). Recently the segment broke partially in two smaller events of February, 8, 1987 (M _s =7.4) and October 16, 1987 (M _s =7.4), leaving still unbroken areas.We observe from focal mechanisms that the outer-rise along the whole segment was under pronounced compression from the late 60's to at least October 1987 (with exception of the tensional earthquake of December 11, 1985), signifying the mature stage of the earthquake cycle. Simultaneously the slab at intermediate depths below 40 km was under tension before the earthquake of October 16, 1987. That event, with a smooth rupture lasting 32 sec, rupture velocity of 2.0 km/sec, extent of approximately 70 km and moment of 1.2×10²⁷ dyne-cm, did not change significantly the compressive state of stress in the outer-rise of that segment. The earthquake did not fill the gap completely and this segment is still capable of rupturing either in an earthquake which would fill the gap between the 1987 and 1971 events, or in a larger magnitude event (M _s =7.7–7.9), comparable to earthquakes observed in that segment in 1906, 1945 and 1947.     

Historical seismicity of the southeastern Caribbean and tectonic implications

We have relocated the twenty-eight largest magnitude (4.3M _s 7.3) historical (1922–1963) earthquakes of the southeastern Caribbean. We also present new focal mechanisms for seven of these events. The relocations are based on reported ISSP andS arrival times that we analyzed using generalized linear inversion techniques. The new focal mechanisms were constrained by first motionP polarities as reported by the ISS and as picked by us where records were available, and by the polarities and ratios ofSH andsSH, andSV andsSV arrivals that we determined from seismograms. The results of the relocations are commensurate with the distribution of seismicity observed in the recent era: hypocenters are shallow and intermediate in depth (0–200 km), and the events occur almost exclusively in areas known to be currently seismic. The frequent seismic activity in the vicinity of the Paria Peninsula, Venezuela, is clearly a persistent feature of the regional earthquake pattern; intermediate depth earthquakes indicative of subduction beneath the Caribbean plate occur here and along the Lesser Antilles arc. The Grenadines seismic gap is confirmed as an area of low seismic moment release throughout the historical era. Trinidad and the eastern Gulf of Paria were also largely quiescent.The new focal mechanisms, despite being a sparse data set, give significant insight into both subduction processes along the Lesser Antilles arc and into the shallow deformation of the Caribbean-South America plate boundary zone. The largest earthquake to have occurred in this region, the 19 March 1953 event (M _m =7.01), is a Lesser Antilles slab deformation event, and another earthquake in this region of the Lesser Antilles is probably a rarely-observed interplate thrust event. Shallow deformation in the plate boundary zone is complex and, near the Paria Penninsula, involves mixed southeastward thrusting and dextral strike-slip on east-striking faults, and secondarily, normal faulting. Bending of the subducting Atlantic-South American plate also seems to generate seisms. The rather high ratio of intraplate deformation to interplate deformation observed along the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the more recent era seems to have been operative in the historical era as well.     

Temporal variations in the fractal properties of seismicity in the North Anatolian Fault Zone between 31°E and 41°E

We investigate the nature of temporal variations in the statistical properties of seismicity associated with the North Anatolian Fault Zone between longitudes 31°–41°E during the instrumental period 1900–1992. Temporal variations in the seismicb value and the fractal (correlation) dimensionD _c of earthquake epicenters are examined for earthquakes of magnitudeM _S 4.5, using sliding windows of 100 consecutive events.b varies temporally between 0.6 and 1.0, andD _c between 0.6 and 1.4, both representing significant fluctuations above the errors in measurement technique. A strong negative correlation (r=–0.85) is observed betweenb andD _c , consistent with previous observation of seismicity in Japan and southern California. Major events early in this century (M _S 7) are associated with lowb and highD _c , respectively consistent with greater stress intensity and greater spatial clustering of epicenters—both implying a greater degree of stress concentration at this time.     

Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone

The most complete and reliable data of strong (M _s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM _s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M _s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.     

Amplitude and frequency characteristics of the 2001 Southern Peru, M w = 8.4 earthquake records

The Departments of Civil Engineering and Geophysics of the University of Chile, together with international institutions, deployed strong-motion stations in the northern Chile seismic gap. These instruments recorded the June 23, 2001 M _w = 8.4 earthquake that occurred in Southern Peru. This earthquake exhibited at stiff deep soil sites in northern Chile, relatively large maximum accelerations although the recording stations are located more than 400 km away from the epicentral region and 200 km from the southern edge of the rupture. Typical accelerations at these distances are in the order of 0.30 g, consIDerably larger than those expected from recently presented attenuation formulae. Frequency and Wavelet Decomposition of the signals are presented from which the evolution of the amplitude, as a function of selected frequency bands, is analyzed. Typical Central Frequency varies from 3 to 4.8 Hz for horizontal records and 4.5 to 9.5 Hz for vertical records. Ninety five percent of the record energy is concentrated below 11 Hz. Evolution of energy for bands higher than the average record frequency is relatively smooth, and for low frequency, the energy shows abrupt changes as a function of time. The sudden changes are associated to dominant large amplitude motions observed in most of the records. The high frequency content of the motion observed for this earthquake is correlated with the heterogeneities of the interplate contact. To statically characterize the energy evolution with time a smooth three-parameter envelope adjusted for each frequency band is used, therefore, comparison is possible and results could be applied for synthesis studies.     

A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m _b and M _d to M _s or M _w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.     

Large earthquake doublets and fault plane heterogeneity in the northern Solomon Islands subduction zone

In the Solomon Islands and New Britain subduction zones, the largest earthquakes commonly occur as pairs with small separation in time, space and magnitude. This doublet behavior has been attributed to a pattern of fault plane heterogeneity consisting of closely spaced asperities such that the failure of one asperity triggers slip in adjacent asperities. We analyzed body waves of the January 31, 1974,M _w =7.3, February 1, 1974,M _w =7.4, July 20, 1975 (1437)M _w =7.6 and July 20, 1975 (1945),M _w =7.3 doublet events using an iterative, multiple station inversion technique to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of seismic moment release associated with these events. Although the 1974 doublet has smaller body wave moments than the 1975 events, their source histories are more complicated, lasting over 40 seconds and consisting of several subevents located near the epicentral regions. The second 1975 event is well modeled by a simple point source initiating at a depth of 15 km and rupturing an approximate 20 km region about the epicenter. The source history of the first 1975 event reveals a westerly propagating rupture, extending about 50 km from its hypocenter at a depth of 25 km. The asperities of the 1975 events are of comparable size and do not overlap one another, consistent with the asperity triggering hypothesis. The relatively large source areas and small seismic moments of the 1974 doublet events indicate failure of weaker portions of the fault plane in their epicentral regions. Variations in the roughness of the bathymetry of the subducting plate, accompanying subduction of the Woodlark Rise, may be responsible for changes in the mechanical properties of the plate interface.To understand how variations in fault plane coupling and strength affect the interplate seismicity pattern, we relocated 85 underthrusting earthquakes in the northern Solomon Islands Are since 1964. Relatively few smaller magnitude underthrusting events overlap the Solomon Islands doublet asperity regions, where fault coupling and strength are inferred to be the greatest. However, these asperity regions have been the sites of several previous earthquakes withM _s 7.0. The source regions of the 1974 doublet events, which we infer to be mechanically weak, contain many smaller magnitude events but have not generated any otherM _s 7.0 earthquakes in the historic past. The central portion of the northern Solomon Islands Arc between the two largest doublet events in 1971 (studied in detail bySchwartz et al., 1989a) and 1975 contains the greatest number of smaller magnitude underthrusting earthquakes. The location of this small region sandwiched between two strongly coupled portions of the plate interface suggest that it may be the site of the next large northern Solomon Islands earthquake. However, this region has experienced no known earthquakes withM _s 7.0 and may represent a relatively aseismic portion of the subduction zone.     

Statistical analysis of earthquake activity at Etna volcano (March 1981 eruption)

Seismic activity that preceded, accompanied, and followed the 17–23 March 1981 Etnean eruption has been statistically analyzed.On the grounds of both time evolution of seismicity and catalogue completeness, three time intervals have been defined (12 February–2 March, 12–17 March, 19–31 March) and for each of these periods both the b coefficient of theGutenberg-Richter's (1956) relationship and the E parameter of the cluster size (Shlien andToksoz, 1970) have been calculated.No significant variations were observed between the first and third periods, while lower values of bothb andE coefficients were found in the second one. These findings might indicate that changes in the seismicity features occur just before the eruption start.Small but fast variations in the stress field acting on the volcano might originate this type of seismic activity, while the importance of the tectonic control on volcanic phenomena seems to be confirmed.     

Precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon,San Andreas fault,earthquakes

The Stone Canyon earthquake sequence started during August 1982 and lasted for about four months. It contained four mainshocks withM _L 4, each with an aftershock zone about 4 km long. These mainshocks, progressing from southeast to northwest, ruptured a segment of the fault approximately 20 km long leaving two gaps, which were later filled by theM _L =4.6 mainshocks of January 14, and May 31, 1986. The equivalent magnitude of the sequence isM _L =5.0.Precursory seismic quiescence could be identified in: (1) the northernmost 10 km of the aftershock zone which contained three of the mainshocks; and (2) the southern gap in the aftershock zone. The fault segment containing the first mainshock and its aftershocks did not show quiescence. This pattern of precursory quiescence is very similar to two cases in Hawaii where the rupture initiation points of the mainshocks (M _S =7.2 and 6.6, respectively) were located in volumes of constant seismicity rate, surrounded by volumes with pronounced precursory quiescence.The precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon earthquakes lasted for 76 weeks, amounted to a reduction in rate of about 60%, and could be recognized without any false alarms. That is, the anomaly was unique within the 60 km study segment of the fault and in the years 1975 through August 1982. Eighteen foreshocks occurred between July 27 and August 7, 1982. We conclude that the August 1982 mainshocks could have been predicted, based on seismic quiescence and foreshocks.     

Seismic source-parameter relations for earthquakes in Greece

A data set of nineteen, mainly shallow, moderate to large earthquakes, which occurred in the Aegean and the surrounding area, has been used to derive empirical relations for kinematic fault parameters. Thus the relations between seismic momentM ₀ and magnitudeM _s andm _b and betweenM ₀ andM _s and fault dimensionsS andL have been determined. From these relations and theoretical ones it was deduced that earthquakes in the Aegean and the surrounding events, chiefly interplate, are characterized by low average stress drop values. Values of ranging from 1 to 30 bar are consistent with the data. It was also found that, in general terms, most of the data obey the geometrical similarity conditionL=2w, whereL is the fault length measured along the strike andw is its width measured along the dip. For strike-slip faults, however, the conditionL=4w seems to hold.     

Plio-Quaternary tectono-magmatic zonation and plate tectonics in the Central Andes

Seismic provinces in Peru and northern Chile may be defined in direct relation to the geometry of parts of Nazca plate that are being subducted under the Americas plate. Recent tectonism and calc-alkaline volcanism appear also to have a clear relationship to that same geometry of the subducted slab. Under northern and central Peru, the slab plunges at 10–15° to the northeast, and becomes almost horizontal farther east; at surface in the same region, recent calc-alkaline volcanism is absent and recent tectonics are mostly compressional. Under southern Peru and northern Chile, the slab plunges regularly at about 30° to the east; at the surface, calc-alkaline volcanism is still active and recent tectonism appears to be mostly extensional.     

Oblique subduction of a Newtonian fluid slab

A Newtonian fluid model is proposed to describe the oblique subduction of a planar 2-D slab. The slab is assumed to subduct in response to the ridge push force exerted along the trench, the slab pull force at the downdip of the slab, the gravitational body force within the slab, and the frictional resistance force at the upper surface of the slab. Because the slab motion along strike is being resisted by the frictional resistance at the interplate coupling area while the slab motion along the trench normal is being maintained by the gravitational pulling, the slab turns gradually toward the trench normal direction as it subducts. This model offers an alternative explanation for earthquake slip partitioning, the observation that the earthquake slip vectors deflect away from the relative plate motion direction toward the trench normal direction along most of the oblique subduction zones worldwide. Numerical models suggest that slip partitioning caused by slab deformation could be as much as 30% at 100 km downdip of the slab. The slab viscosity, the plate coupling width, the interplate resistance coefficient, the slab pull force, and the gravitational body force are all important in determining the geometry of the slab subduction.     

Mechanics of seismic instabilities induced by the recovery of hydrocarbons

We review earthquake distributions associated with hydrocarbon fields in the context of pore pressure diffusion models, poroelastic stress transfer and isostasy theory. These three mechanisms trigger or induce seismic instabilities at both local scale (D5 km) and at regional scale (D20 km). The modeled changes in stress are small (1 MPa), whatever the tectonic setting. Each mechanism corresponds to different production processes. (1) Local hydraulic fracturing due to fluid injection induces seismic-slip on cracks (M _L3) within the injected reservoir through decreasing the effective stress. (2) Pure fluid withdrawal causes pore pressure to decrease within the reservoir. It triggers adjustments of the geological structure to perturbations related to the reservoir response to depletion. Poroelastic mechanisms transfer this stress change from the reservoir to the surrounding levels whereM _L5 seismic instabilities occur either above or below the reservoir. (3) Massive hydrocarbon recovery induces crustal readjustments due to the removal of load from the upper crust. It can induce larger earthquakes (M _L6) at greater distance from the hydrocarbon fields than the two other mechanisms.Due to the mechanical properties of the shallow rock matrices involved, seismic slip triggered either by mechanism (1) or (2), is a second-order process of the main elastoplastic deformation. for a minimum of 80% of commercially productive basins, most of the local deformation is reported as aseismic, i.e., there is no evidence forM _L3 earthquakes. Nevertheless, the induced stresses vary as a function of time in a manner that depends on the hydraulic diffusivity (i.e., permeability) of the reservoir and surrounding rocks. Because small earthquakes (M _L3) indicate changes in stress and pore pressure, monitoring of seismicity is a means of assessingin situ reservoir behavior.The less constrained seismic response to hydrocarbon recovery is the possible connection between local fluid manipulations, triggered earthquakes and major regional earthquakes. Positive feedback mechanisms suggest that the region of seismic hazard changes is much larger than the area where hydrocarbons are extracted. These observations and models testify that fluid movement and pore pressure changes (increase or decrease) play important roles in the mechanics of earthquakes and in the triggering of natural earthquakes.     

The upper mantle structure of the yakutian kimberlite province,eastern Russia

Deep seismic sounding in the region of the Mirnyi kimberlite field indicates that the boundary velocity of the uppermost mantle is elevated (v _b=8.6–8.8 km/sec) and extremely variable near the Mir kimberlite pipe. These velocity heterogeneities are probably associated with the kimberlite magmatism and may be useful in the identification of other kimberlite fields.     

Rupture process of large earthquakes in the northern Mexico subduction zone

The Cocos plate subducts beneath North America at the Mexico trench. The northernmost segment of this trench, between the Orozco and Rivera fracture zones, has ruptured in a sequence of five large earthquakes from 1973 to 1985; the Jan. 30, 1973 Colima event (M _s 7.5) at the northern end of the segment near Rivera fracture zone; the Mar. 14, 1979 Petatlan event (M _s 7.6) at the southern end of the segment on the Orozco fracture zone; the Oct. 25, 1981 Playa Azul event (M _s 7.3) in the middle of the Michoacan gap; the Sept. 19, 1985 Michoacan mainshock (M _s 8.1); and the Sept. 21, 1985 Michoacan aftershock (M _s 7.6) that reruptured part of the Petatlan zone. Body wave inversion for the rupture process of these earthquakes finds the best: earthquake depth; focal mechanism; overall source time function; and seismic moment, for each earthquake. In addition, we have determined spatial concentrations of seismic moment release for the Colima earthquake, and the Michoacan mainshock and aftershock. These spatial concentrations of slip are interpreted as asperities; and the resultant asperity distribution for Mexico is compared to other subduction zones. The body wave inversion technique also determines theMoment Tensor Rate Functions; but there is no evidence for statistically significant changes in the moment tensor during rupture for any of the five earthquakes. An appendix describes theMoment Tensor Rate Functions methodology in detail.The systematic bias between global and regional determinations of epicentral locations in Mexico must be resolved to enable plotting of asperities with aftershocks and geographic features. We have spatially shifted all of our results to regional determinations of epicenters. The best point source depths for the five earthquakes are all above 30 km, consistent with the idea that the down-dip edge of the seismogenic plate interface in Mexico is shallow compared to other subduction zones. Consideration of uncertainties in the focal mechanisms allows us to state that all five earthquakes occurred on fault planes with the same strike (N65°W to N70°W) and dip (15±3°), except for the smaller Playa Azul event at the down-dip edge which has a steeper dip angle of 20 to 25°. However, the Petatlan earthquake does prefer a fault plane that is rotated to a more east-west orientation—one explanation may be that this earthquake is located near the crest of the subducting Orozco fracture zone. The slip vectors of all five earthquakes are similar and generally consistent with the NUVEL-predicted Cocos-North America convergence direction of N33°E for this segment. The most important deviation is the more northerly slip direction for the Petatlan earthquake. Also, the slip vectors from the Harvard CMT solutions for large and small events in this segment prefer an overall convergence direction of about N20°E to N25°E.All five earthquakes share a common feature in the rupture process: each earthquake has a small initial precursory arrival followed by a large pulse of moment release with a distinct onset. The delay time varies from 4 s for the Playa Azul event to 8 s for the Colima event. While there is some evidence of spatial concentration of moment release for each event, our overall asperity distribution for the northern Mexico segment consists of one clear asperity, in the epicentral region of the 1973 Colima earthquake, and then a scattering of diffuse and overlapping regions of high moment release for the remainder of the segment. This character is directly displayed in the overlapping of rupture zones between the 1979 Petatlan event and the 1985 Michoacan aftershock. This character of the asperity distribution is in contrast to the widely spaced distinct asperities in the northern Japan-Kuriles Islands subduction zone, but is somewhat similar to the asperity distributions found in the central Peru and Santa Cruz Islands subduction zones. Subduction of the Orozco fracture zone may strongly affect the seismogenic character as the overlapping rupture zones are located on the crest of the subducted fracture zone. There is also a distinct change in the physiography of the upper plate that coincides with the subducting fracture zone, and the Guerrero seismic gap to the south of the Petatlan earthquake is in the wake of the Orozco fracture zone. At the northern end, the Rivera fracture zone in the subducting plate and the Colima graben in the upper plate coincide with the northernmost extent of the Colima rupture zone.     

The occurrence of trigger effects in regional seismicity

This study is concerned with the influence exerted by worldwide M ≥ 7.5 earthquakes on the seismicity of California, and well as with the effects of M ≥ 5 southern California earthquakes on northern Californian seismicity. The analysis concerns the 1990–2013 period. We noted a seismicity increase in southern and northern California during the first 24 hours after worldwide earthquakes and a decrease during the next 48 hours. A seismicity increase in northern California during the first 24 hours following an earthquake in southern California and a decrease during the next 48 hours were also noted. A seismicity increase was observed in the Long Valley caldera during the first 24 hours following an M ≥ 5 earthquake in southern California and a decrease during the next 48 hours. We also discuss some causes of this trigger effect, in view of the fact that the external excitations had low intensity. No seismicity changes have been detected in southern and northern California during powerful typhoons in the northeastern Pacific and during magnetic storms.     

Physical criterion to evaluate seismic activity associated with the seismic cycle of great interplate earthquakes

A new criterion is introduced to judge if the vicinity of the source region of a great interplate earthquake is in an active period. It is based on the stress change caused by the great earthquake. A region is regarded as being in an active period of seismicity if the occurrence rate of earthquakes on faults in the stress shadow of the great earthquake is significantly higher than in the early stage of the seismic cycle, and if the stressing rate of these faults is sufficiently low. This criterion was applied to the seismicity in the central part of southwest Japan before and after the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. The results show that before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, the region was in an active period from at least 1927.The region was in a quiet period for almost50 years after the 1946 Nankai earthquake.Data after 1995 show that the region is once more in an active period of seismicity preceding the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough,although the total number of earthquakes has not yet significantly increased. Our results indicate that earthquake probability in the central part of southwest Japan will become high in the coming decades until the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough.